Tradewinds

Businesses and people do NOT recognize or value exceptional people. In fact, exceptional people are basically overlooked and probably even discounted. The business model is to hire monkeys who can be trained, and will try to do what you tell them to do. Sorry if I'm off the subject.

The market internals are what I trade by. That and support and resistance. I have no use for indicators based on price. All the market internals do trend, and it is possible to make sense of them.

If your trade does not immediately start making money on the first price move in the direction of the order, then I would exit at a loss. If you want to take on more draw down as your trading gets better or more sophisticated, then you need a really good reason, or it's just gambling. I would stay away from a strategy that makes good money, but takes big drawdowns. Those big drawdowns are going to turn into a big loss sooner or later. One huge loss can really cut into your profits, or wipe them out. A strategy that looks great from the stats, but takes big drawdowns, could be biased to the major trend in the time period that is was tested in. Major trends could last for years. I would want a strategy that had at least 70% winning trades, and hopefully higher. Real trading will cut that rate down. If you are involved in trading, successful or not, for an extended period of time, I think it will change you as a person. Whether you are successful or not, you may become more hardened to the harsh reality of trading and life. I'm not saying a person will become hardened from trading, but I'm guessing the odds are high. There is a good side to trading, in the sense that you can learn and grow as a person, but there is a definite downside that I think is difficult to avoid. I think it would be kind of like being a butcher. You might make good money being a butcher, but you need become accustomed to and desensitized to killing and blood. That may sound a little harsh, but I'm just trying to make a point. All I'm saying is, that trading has the potential to have a harsh downside to your personal life and how it affects you. I'm not trying to say that trading has some exclusive bad side to it. I'm sure there are plenty of other life experiences that can affect a person as well. Apart from other traders, you may not find many people who have any interest or understanding for what you are trying to accomplish in trading.

Practice trading. Last 2 1/2 weeks. Net Profit $13,437 for that time period. Trading 1 to 4 ES Contracts. 75% win rate. 1172 total trades. It states $2,812 in commissions. Annual rate of return 347%. Attached is the performance report. Perform June2011.xls

I've just got all my custom studies transferred from thinkScript into EasyLanguage. That's taken me a little over a couple of weeks to learn EasyLanguage and convert 7 indicators. One of which is posted in the Trading Indicators section here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-indicators/10265-support-resistance-auto-plots.html I fixed the problem with my desktop crashing all the time by swapping out the CPU to an old Pentium 4 dual core. My newer E8500 dual core was the problem in my home built computer. Once I start getting some money coming in, I'll either build or buy something newer. I have two logins for Tradestation, running on two computers, and a second internet backup. Been learning the platform and practice trading for the last couple of weeks. I don't think I've had a loosing day. I'll have to create a trade report and post the stats.

There is a big difference between the market internals for the overall market, and the market internals for an index. The SP and the SP500 are two different things. And the Advancers for the SP and the Advancers for the SP500 are two different things. In TradeStation you can get the: $ADV NYSE Advancing Issues $ADVSP S&P 500 Advancing Issues If you chart both those ticker symbols, the difference can be surprising.

Thinkorswim provides NYSE $TICK data, but the smallest aggregation period you can receive it in is a 1 minute chart. The one minute bar updates may be every 15 seconds. I'm not sure about Prodigio. I heard that Prodigio is providing the data in 1 second increments. But Prodigio was designed for automated trading and I think the account minimum is $35,000 dollars.

I edited the chart from post #1 and commented on how I read that chart. Right after you got stopped out, price made two higher highs, then failed to go lower for 3 bars. That is what I would call a "Strength Up" move during a down trend. To me, that's a "Pre" Bottom signal. And what happened? Price bottomed, and it moved up. BUT, the price move up is not another up trend. It's a continuation of a longer up trend, after an extended retracement. That's why you would take long profit right after the price breaks over Resistance, and go Short. Scalp the Short trade, and wait to see what happens. What happened? Price dropped HARD and fast, that is what I would call, "Strength Down". And it's Strength down ON THE FIRST MOVE. It's critical to take into context what the overall picture is. Strength down on the first move down is confirmation of continuation down. No rule is 100% percent. That's why I don't just enter an order, and think that I know what is going to happen. I never know what's going to happen. But I can be flexible and adjust. Those are my rules.

I've posted my completed EasyLanguage Auto Support and Resistance line indicator in the INDICATOR section. It uses trendlines instead of plots to draw horizontal lines on the chart. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-indicators/10265-support-resistance-auto-plots.html

I've posted my completed EasyLanguage Auto Support and Resistance line indicator in the INDICATOR section: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-indicators/10265-support-resistance-auto-plots.html

Right now I view scaling in like this: Minimum order at high probability fill Bigger order at good probability fill Small order at low probability fill For example: Enter Long. 1 Contract at Support Line 2 Contracts lower than Support Line 1 Contract even lower That combination puts the bulk of the position right in the middle. (Think of a standard Bell Shaped distribution curve.) If there is a big price move down at the long entry, everything fills. If only one contract is the total risk, rather than 4, then I'd put the order at the less likely fill, but better position. If 4 contracts are risked, the overall draw down is lesser. There is actually more profit potential if there is a big price move down at the long entry and everything fills. As long as the order eventually goes in your favor. That combination almost guarantees a fill, and gets you into the trade. If you misjudged the entry price, then you are still in a great situation because you have more fills, and a greater profit potential. All of this assumes that the trader has good setups for entry, and that the RANGE of price variation and draw down is a secondary issue. Sometimes the consolidation range is wider than at other times. It depends on the volatility and whether it's a longer or shorter term trend. The bottom of a yearly trend would probably have a much larger consolidation range than the bottom of a intraday trend.

I keep the same things in mind. Sometimes price will just not break support or resistance. When I see that, I'll adjust the target to a lower profit. Judging "Strength and Weakness" in the price is a very subtle perception. I use 3 generic concepts to interpret all my indicators and price. Momentum Strength of the Move - Price, Indicators Higher or Lower real moves - price and indicators Those 3 criteria have many different possible combinations in and of themselves. But then there are even more combinations if you look at patterns, and even more possibilities if you compare short and long term trends. So I look at the "net affect". For example, if the Strength of my indicator was weak, but the price move was strong, I view that as a divergence, and may give more weight to the indicator. In fact I will look for at least some retracement if price is moving much stronger than my indicators. There are situations where there is a very strong move up in an indicator, but price doesn't go higher. So what does that mean? Sometimes it means that price is at the beginning of an even stronger up move. It depends upon the greater context.

This is my preference also. But I hadn't thought about something until just now. Why do I find the exits easy? Huh, strange. I guess I view it as, "Oh! The market has just decided to give me lots of money! Okay. Thank you! I'll just take my money now." Could I get twice as much money sometimes? Maybe. Maybe not. I wonder what the statistical analysis of scaling in and all-out exit is? Scaling in probably reduces your draw down stats. Staying "all in" until a good exit probably maxes out the profit potential. If you scale out to early, that decreases your profit. If it's a winning trade, why scale out? Especially if you can get out at break even at worst case scenario.

This is the indicator that I use on my chart. It is the only indicator I use on a price chart. As far as price is concerned, all I care about is Support and Resistance. I use this indicator on a one minute chart of the ES E-mini SP 500. It plots a Resistance line as soon as a Peak signal fires. When the second Peak signal fires, it plots a new Resistance line, and extends the old Resistance line in a different style. The same happens for Support lines. This indicator in in Easy Language code, programed in TradeStation. It is shown below, plus attached as an ELD file. //7-8-11 // Programed by tradescripter //hh=higher high, ll=lower low var: hh(False),ll(False),lh(False),hl(False); var: ClsDwn(False),ClsUp(False); var: Aftr929(False),Aftr932(False),Aftr939(False); var: BeforeCls(False); var: DayHrs(False),newDay(False),OKtoPlot(False); var: Peak1(False),Peak2(False),Peak3(False),Peak4(False),Peak5(False),Peak6(False); var: Bttm1(False),Bttm2(False),Bttm3(False),Bttm4(False),Bttm5(False),Bttm6(False); var: Peak(False),Bttm(False); var: PeakPrice(H),BttmPrice(L),PriorPeakPrice(H),PriorBttmPrice(L); var: NoPriorPk(False),NoPriorBttm(False); var: HL_Price(False),LH_Price(False); var: NewRzstnceExt(-1), OldRzstnceExt(-1), OldSupport(-1), OldExtSpprt(-1); var: OldRzstnceBegPrice(h), OldSprtBegPrice(L), OldHiExtBegPrice(H), OldBegPrice2(H); var: NewRzstnceBegTime(t), NewRzstnceExtBegTime(t), NewLowExtBegTime(t), NewSpprtBegTime(t); var: NewRzstnceBegDate(D), NewSpprtBegDate(D), NewRzstnceExtBegDate(D), NewLowExtBegDate(D); var: HierHigh(False), LowerHigh(False), HierLow(False), LowerLow(False); var: SteppedDwn(0); var: NewRzstnce(-1), OldRzstnce(-1), NewSpprt(-1); var: NewSupportExt(-1); hh=h>h[1]; ll=l<l[1]; lh=h<h[1]; hl=l>l[1]; ClsDwn=c<o; ClsUp=c>o; Aftr929=T>929; Aftr932=T>932; Aftr939=T>939; BeforeCls=T<1600; DayHrs=Aftr929 and BeforeCls; newDay=date <> date[1]; //OKtoPlot=DayHrs=True; Peak1=ClsUp[1] and ClsDwn; Peak2=lh[1] = False and ClsDwn; Peak3=lh[1] = False and lh; Peak4=ClsUp[1] and lh; Peak5=hh[1] and hh = False; Peak6=hh and ClsUp = False; Bttm1=ClsDwn[1] and ClsUp; Bttm2=hl[1] = False and ClsUp; Bttm3=hl[1] = False and hl; Bttm4=ClsDwn[1] and hl; Bttm5=ll[1] and ll = False; Bttm6=ll and ClsDwn = False; Peak=(Peak1 = True or Peak2 = True or Peak3 = True or Peak4 = True or Peak5 = True); Bttm=(Bttm1 = True or Bttm2 = True or Bttm3 = True or Bttm4 = True or Bttm5 = True); NoPriorPk=Peak[1] = false; NoPriorBttm=Bttm[1] = false; if Peak6 and NoPriorPk then Begin PeakPrice = H; End else If Peak and NoPriorPk then Begin PeakPrice = H[1]; End; if Bttm6 and NoPriorBttm then BttmPrice=L else If Bttm and NoPriorBttm then BttmPrice = L[1]; HierLow=BttmPrice>BttmPrice[1]; LowerHigh=PeakPrice<PeakPrice[1]; LowerLow=BttmPrice<BttmPrice[1]; HierHigh=PeakPrice>PeakPrice[1]; if LowerLow then SteppedDwn = 1 else if HierLow then SteppedDwn = 0; if PeakPrice <> PeakPrice[1] then PriorPeakPrice = PeakPrice[1]; if BttmPrice <> BttmPrice[1] then PriorBttmPrice = BttmPrice[1]; {-- Starts a new Resistance Line, then ends the old Resistance Trend line if a new peak signal fires ---} If Peak and NoPriorPk Then Begin OldRzstnce = NewRzstnce; If Peak6 and NoPriorPk then Begin NewRzstnce = tl_new(d[1], t[1], H, d, t, H); End Else Begin NewRzstnce = tl_new(d[1], t[1], H[1], d, t, H[1]); End; Value1 = TL_SetExtRight(NewRzstnce, True); Value2 = TL_SetSize(NewRzstnce, 2); Value3 = TL_SetColor(NewRzstnce, Blue); If OldRzstnce <> -1 Then Begin NewRzstnceBegDate = TL_GetBeginDate(NewRzstnce); NewRzstnceBegTime = TL_GetBeginTime(NewRzstnce); OldRzstnceBegPrice = TL_GetBeginVal(OldRzstnce); Value4 = TL_SetExtRight(OldRzstnce, False); //Stop extending the original line to the right. Value5 = TL_SetEnd(OldRzstnce, NewRzstnceBegDate, NewRzstnceBegTime, OldRzstnceBegPrice); End; End; {-- Starts a new trendline if a new bottom signal fires ---} If Bttm and NoPriorBttm Then Begin OldSupport = NewSpprt; If Bttm6 and NoPriorBttm then Begin NewSpprt = tl_new(d[1], t[1], L, d, t, L); End Else Begin NewSpprt = tl_new(d[1], t[1], L[1], d, t, L[1]); End; Value6 = TL_SetExtRight(NewSpprt, True); Value7 = TL_SetSize(NewSpprt, 2); Value8 = TL_SetColor(NewSpprt, magenta); If OldSupport <> -1 Then Begin NewSpprtBegDate = TL_GetBeginDate(NewSpprt); NewSpprtBegTime = TL_GetBeginTime(NewSpprt); OldSprtBegPrice = TL_GetBeginVal(OldSupport); Value9 = TL_SetExtRight(OldSupport, False); Value10 = TL_SetEnd(OldSupport, NewSpprtBegDate, NewSpprtBegTime, OldSprtBegPrice); End; End; {-- Extends the old Resistance trendline if a new peak signal fires ---} If Peak and NoPriorPk and H <= PeakPrice[1] Then Begin OldRzstnceExt = NewRzstnceExt; NewRzstnceExt = tl_new(d[1], t[1], OldRzstnceBegPrice, d, t, OldRzstnceBegPrice); Value11 = TL_SetExtRight(NewRzstnceExt, True); Value12 = TL_SetColor(NewRzstnceExt, Blue); Value13 = Tl_setstyle(NewRzstnceExt, Tool_Dotted); If OldRzstnceExt <> -1 Then Begin NewRzstnceExtBegDate = TL_GetBeginDate(NewRzstnceExt); NewRzstnceExtBegTime = TL_GetBeginTime(NewRzstnceExt); OldHiExtBegPrice = TL_GetBeginVal(OldRzstnceExt); Value14 = TL_SetExtRight(OldRzstnceExt, False); Value15 = TL_SetEnd(OldRzstnceExt, NewRzstnceExtBegDate, NewRzstnceExtBegTime, OldHiExtBegPrice); End; End; {-- Extends the old support line if a new bttm signal fires ---} If Bttm and NoPriorBttm and L >= BttmPrice[1] Then Begin OldExtSpprt = NewSupportExt; NewSupportExt = tl_new(d[1], t[1], OldSprtBegPrice, d, t, OldSprtBegPrice); Value16 = TL_SetExtRight(NewSupportExt, True); Value17 = TL_SetColor(NewSupportExt, Magenta); Value18 = Tl_setstyle(NewSupportExt, Tool_Dotted); If OldExtSpprt <> -1 Then Begin NewLowExtBegDate = TL_GetBeginDate(NewSupportExt); NewLowExtBegTime = TL_GetBeginTime(NewSupportExt); OldBegPrice2 = TL_GetBeginVal(OldExtSpprt); Value19 = TL_SetExtRight(OldExtSpprt, False); Value20 = TL_SetEnd(OldExtSpprt, NewLowExtBegDate, NewLowExtBegTime, OldBegPrice2); End; End; _PRICE_LEVELS_PRICE.ELD

Interesting. Thanks for that info. So a subscriber gets access to your indicator somehow by requesting it from TradeStation? How does that work?

So for every subscriber that you have, you need to pay a platform fee to TradeStation for each one in order to broadcast the data? I'm just curious.

This post further defines degrees of a bad entry. Enter Long at the Peak of a trend Enter Long on the first move down of a down trend Enter Long Part way down a down trend Enter Long Almost at the bottom of a down trend Enter Long at the very bottom of a down trend Each of the above situations has a different degree of risk and disadvantage. Entering a Long order at the Peak as price is going up, is a much worse situation than entering long as price is going down, slightly before the real bottom of the down trend. Real trading is more complicated than the above 5 possibilities. A long trend may have a retracement, then continue in a second phase of the long trend. You may not know whether the downward move in price is a retracement of an extended longer trend, or the first move down in a down trend. The optimal situation is that a trader has a way to determine what is a retracement down in a long trend, or the first move down of a down trend. Both those situations can look and behave identically or almost identically. And the distinction between the two may not be apparent until after the change has already happened. Therefore you will be reacting well after the optimal window of opportunity has passed. Deciding to suffer "draw down" from the worst situation compared to the next to best situation can have quite different consequences. Taking some draw down on a long entry just before a reversal up can turn out well. Taking draw down on a long entry that was entered at the first down move of a downtrend can turn out badly, especially if the second move down is fast and large. Then if you mistake the second move down for the bottom, and wait, then you could suffer a third move down. In the optimal situation, a trader can determine the difference between a retracement before the second phase of an extended uptrend, and the first move down of a down trend. Let's assume the optimal situation. Even under the optimal situation, the trader must react very quickly, and you may be late unless you guess at what the next price move may be ahead of time and enter orders ahead of time. So even under the optimal situation, a slight loss, and then a less than optimal re-entry may be unavoidable.

What trading platform are you using? Have you done any practice trading? Have you heard anything about what the success rate for traders is? Do you have an programing experience? Does your platform have the ability to do any backtesting? Do you keep a trading journal? What do you use for a news source? Are you familiar with trader personality profiles? Do you want to develop your own trading strategy, or trade someone's else's, and "make it your own"? Are you willing and able for it to take years before you can make money trading?

I would say that Entries are 80% percent of trading, and exits are 20% percent. A good entry is very quickly profitable, and that makes life a whole lot easier. It's a lot more fun to manage how right you are and how rich you are going to be, than to manage how bad a mistake you made, and how screwed you are.

Aah Hah, Hah, Hah Haaaaah! I think I've done it!!! I will now take over the world !!! The code retrieves the new Start Time from the new trendline, and uses that as the End time for the old trend line. Then the code retrieves the Begin Value from the Old trend line and uses it as the end value for the old trend line. So the old trendline begins and ends at the same price - Horizontal line. But before the End is set for the old trendline, the extension to the right is shut down for the old trend line, but ONLY the Old trend line. So only the current trend line is being extended to the right. This causes the current trend line to be extended in "real time" as the chart is updating. As soon as a new Peak signal fires, the Extension to the Right shuts down and the ending point is defined for the last trendline. var: Peak1(False); Variable: OldKeyID(-1), ID(-1); var: NewStartTime(t),OldStartPrice(h); Peak1 = C[1]>O[1] AND Close<O; If Peak1 Then Begin OldKeyID = ID; ID = TL_New(Date[1], Time[1], H[1], Date, Time, H[1]); Value1 = TL_SetExtRight(ID, True); If OldKeyID <> -1 Then Begin NewStartTime = TL_GetBeginTime(ID); OldStartPrice = TL_GetBeginVal(OldKeyID); Value1 = TL_SetExtRight(OldKeyID, False); Value2 = TL_SetEnd(OldKeyID, Date, NewStartTime, OldStartPrice); End; End;

I made a change, and it didn't give me what I want, but it does give me some more information. Instead of deleting the OldKeyID trend line, I set the Right Extension to "False". What that did, is it left the old trend line in place, but the old trend line is now only 1 bar in length. So the old trend line is still there, but it's not extended to the start of the new trend line. So it looks like I may need to use the "OldKeyID", but instead of deleting it or setting the right extension to False, I need to somehow define where the new end is going to be. var: Peak1(False); Variable: OldKeyID(-1), ID(-1); Peak1 = C[1]>O[1] AND Close<O; If Peak1 Then Begin OldKeyID = ID; ID = TL_New(Date[1], Time[1], H[1], Date, Time, H[1]); Value1 = TL_SetExtRight(ID, True); If OldKeyID <> -1 Then Value1 = TL_SetExtRight(OldKeyID, False); End;

This code will delete all the old trend lines. So there is only one trend line at a time. As soon as the new trend line is created, the old trend line is deleted. Note the addition of "OldKeyID" Variable: OldKeyID(-1), ID(-1); So the OldKeyID AND the ID are both being initialized at a value of -1. I'm guessing what happens, is that each new trend line is assigned a successive number. This still doesn't do what I want, I want all the old trend lines to remain on the chart. Maybe I can use the OldKeyID to end the last line instead of delete it. var: Peak1(False); Peak1 = C[1]>O[1] AND Close<O; Variable: OldKeyID(-1), ID(-1); If Peak1 Then Begin OldKeyID = ID; ID = TL_New(Date[1], Time[1], H[1], Date, Time, H[1]); Value1 = TL_SetExtRight(ID, True); If OldKeyID <> -1 Then Value1 = TL_Delete(OldKeyID); End;

This code does part of what I want. It starts a trendline at one of my PEAK signals. Variable: ID(-1); If C[1]>O[1] AND Close<O Then Begin ID = TL_New(Date[1], Time[1], H[1], Date, Time, H[1]); Value1 = TL_SetExtRight(ID, True); End; I want the LAST high to be the price level of the trend line if my peak signal fires. So I used "H[1]" for the start price. For the end price, I want the line to be perfectly level and horizontal, so the end price must be the same as the start price. So I used the last high for the end price also. ID = TL_New(Date[1], Time[1], H[1], Date, Time, H[1]); So this is a beginning. Now I need to be able to stop one trend line when the next one starts. This code uses the same logic, but just adds a little bit of detail: var: Peak1(False); Peak1 = C[1]>O[1] AND Close<O; Variable: ID(-1); If Peak1 Then Begin ID = TL_New(Date[1], Time[1], H[1], Date, Time, H[1]); Value1 = TL_SetExtRight(ID, True); End;

Here is a TradeStation help code example: Variable: ID(-1); If Low < Low[1] AND Close > High[1] Then Begin ID = TL_New(Date[1], Time[1], Low, Date, Time, Low); Value1 = TL_SetExtRight(ID, True); End; The above code adds multiple trendlines to my chart. Every time the conditions are met, a new trendline is added to the chart. Each trendline is extended all the way to the current right hand edge of the chart. The reserved word "TL_SetExtRight" causes the trendline to extend continuously from the starting point to the right. So, this means that multiple trend lines can be created from one trendline variable. A trendline variable is not confined to only having one trendline.

I'm using a 1 minute chart of the @ESU11. I used that code with the change you made, and it still would not plot. I'm wondering if the issue is at least partly related to something other than the indicator. I'm constantly getting a msg that the Axis Scaling is being reset to "No Axis" when I add an indicator to the chart. Attached is a screen shot of the msg. I can get a POINT to plot from my signals, I can get regular plot lines to work, but when I try using a trendline, then it just doesn't work. I may need to post something on the TradeStation support forum.