walterw

Thanks Kevin for the input, that would be truly a mathematical money management of the position, makes great sense from a RRR stand point of view... I think it will work better on trending conditions, you need a trend to make this swings so you can get this x4 an x8 etc... so if momentum conditions are present I would suggest paying attention to this posible money management aproach... If the market is in cycle mode, it will be dificult to have so hi 4x or even 8x RRR... so maybe you could lower it to a x1.5 and all in one 1 unit ( no runners ), because there is no running conditions to hold a runner... thanks for inputs, please keep interacting, I will post soon some new technical exit techniques.... cheers Walter.

I should add something here : The market performs normally more eficiently on the first hour and a half... so trading on this first part of the session is one thing and trading the lunch hour or the last hour is a diferent thing... so when you get used to trade on this first part of the day and make your daily target, there is no reason to get your trading into a part of the day that you are not most used to trade.... if things whent against you, maybe you will consider staying the entire session and try to recover yourself to make the day at least even.... but you see if you made your day on the part of the day you feel confortable, no need to keep trading.... should I add the fact that a lot of profesional floor traders apply this strategy to trade a daily target and walk off the market... that some times may explain why market can get so dull after certain period of trading... there are a lot of participants that are not there any more until tomorrow.... lol... cheers Walter.

When the market its outside a keltner 50 exp, 3.5 atr on 110 Tick russell chart, I stay inside a runner (1/3 of position).... if we are inside keltner I consider cyclical market... go for $100.... (on 30 contracts its sweet, believe me).... cheers Walter.

jejejej "no mas" yes, it happened to me on a few ocations to be -200... wasnt on the zone... just get away, recovered on three sessions.... lately sometimes my max drawdown has been -80 and recover quickly... then make +100 and off for the day... it works... I say this way : there are easy and hard days... an easy day you dont have stops, make 100 you are out... hard day maybe you get couple stops, need to make more work.... maybe some of this very hard days I end with +50 doesnt bother me... always try to have a + number at the end of the week... between +350 to +500... cheers Walter.

yes Brown, I never take counter trend trades against momentum conditions.. when market is in cyclical mode (mostly) the extreme of the cycle or coil gives you a good place to trade, obviously thats counter but you are not going against a great strength in course, because there is no momentum... I must say that most of the times you are in the right side of the market, the poor trend trader is just exhausted trying to beat the cycle conditions, he always gets late, he makes party when there is momentum, but that happens very few times per month.... so on cycle conditions you want to be counter... it takes ba...lls to trade in congestion, but when you get used, and have a method, cant stop trading it... Now on this Flip trade we have diferent context situations, they may be trendwise wich would suggest the continuation of trend and maybe the buildup of momentum.... or counter, wich would cycle back to equilibrium on the average zone... depending where you are in relation to the "average"... For a momentum flip I would suggest to stay as much possible, for a cycle flip I would close the entire position on the area of the average... cheers Walter.

Brown : when the day has momentum (very few) Oh Yes ¡¡ I do stay inside with some runners... now on chopy (most of them ) I try to make my day, originally I was on $60 per day contract... now I am on $100 per day contract... on a momentum day normally I exceed the $250 per contract... and yes its more the scalper mentality.... but believe me it pays the bills jejeje... cheers Walter.

yeap, I had been all evening today figuring out a nice exit method for this... the one I use on my M trades its not compatible for this flip trade, now looks like cci could give some hints on the +-100 extremes turn arround.... because the lsma gets to much noise some times... thanks for interacting Brown... I am open to some good Ideas... cheers Walter.

Hi Cooter, you know I am actually using daily targets too and I am enjoying this money managment method, it helps you to stay out of overtrading and you walk out with a nice decent fixed dollar amount every day... helps a lot.... cheers Walter.

Brown : I noticed that in great momentum conditions a flip will show you a continuation trade.... the other alternative is that it will show you the reversal itself at the end of a big move... what I like from this trade is the good RRR that you can manage.... this trade is intended for small scalps... so you can walk out of the market every day with 100 bucks on the pocket per contract.... not bad... cheers Walter.

Have you ever thought that maybe you already have the "Holly Grail " ? Yes ¡¡¡ maybe you have it ¡¡ only that you dont apreciate it... Trading starts with an argument... you have an argument you studied a lot and you test it and even you get to trade it... Now like any argument it sometimes will work and sometimes not.... when it works you are so happy to have this argument on your trading plan, when it doesnt... mmmmm the exodus starts... you say: maybe I need a new argument.... and you study, you test it and even you get to trade it... until It fails.... oh NO¡¡¡¡ and you start to look for another argument an so on the cycle keeps going on.... you are looking for the Holly Grail.... that it doesnt have any stop or very few, maybe that famous 70% performance.... You see all arguments will have a percentage of failure... so the failure now its not the argument it self but the failure may be yourself in keep seeking for that perfect argument... The Holly Grail I would describe it as an argument I trade over and over and over again, feeling confortable with it, its adjusted to my personality, it has good and bad trades but from a RRR it keeps performing positive on the long run.... thats the Holly Grail.... maybe you have it and dont apreciate it.. If you still dont have it, well here on this site you will find lots of very decent setups and strategies that will perform so well ( without to pay any penny to anybody who says they got the holly grail) if you have the correct actitude and understand that the eternal research for the Holly Grail is the worst failure a trader can ever make... Looking and looking and looking for that HG is a deteriorating process, it will make you feel miserable, so many hours, so many times you dont spend with your family, lost great moments of life on this greede and futil research... A very stupid and idiotic setup its enough to make you wealthy my friend, BUT the devil works its ways to make you look for the HG and never trade so good and so simple efective setups... Will you be an eternal student ? or will you be a trader after all ? As I mentioned on a previos thread , the only thing you need to succeed is : _ ONE good setup ( that you feel confortable, and has good RRR ) _ Discipline ( stick to your setup, dont be a fool ) _ Trade, make money ( when your account grows every week with real money, the more disciplined you get, the more serious you get about your set up ) _ Enjoy Trading ( trading has to be a pleasant experience, enjoy it, have some soft beat back music while you trade, think how priviledged you are to have this profession, make so good money on the confort of your studio ) _ Reward yourself ( Buy a new car, take a trip, buy a new home cinema, maybe help others and do charity, say to your self, this was financed with my Holly Grail ¡¡¡) And for last remember that collaboration (at TL) also makes you feel good as you give and receive... cheers Walter.

Here is a very simple setup for new traders who want something easy, simple and efective... even a chimp can trade ¡¡ Support becomes Resistance and viceversa.... Once you have grasped the concept then you just have to make money... One way you can time your entries is with a simple cci 0 line cross.... For exits maybe you want to take a cross of the lsma... Trading can be as hard or as dificult you make it... make it simple, enjoy it, make money. cheers Walter. (example chart is a 55 Tick emini russell with : ema 100, ema34, lsma 25, cci 14, cci 6 ) charts from trademaven.

My experience: _ One good setup _ Discipline _ Enjoy Trading then I fool around with my curiosity but really never trade all does experiments.... just for fun. Trading has to be a pleasant experience, and having only ONE good setup can be a good start to make it pleasant... cheers Walter.

Volume should not change your feelings... you have to be equally responsable and commited if you trade 1 or 50 contracts, if the correct actitude, trading more contracts is just a matter of money management... feels the same like when you started with 1 contract.... you need a decent aproach, clear and easy.... plus discipline and optimism, specially when you get stoped, have a good RRR embeded on your aproach, the rest is story... no matter how many contracts.... on my experience, trading more contracts was obviously a sintom that my trading aproach was correct, giving me more confidence on my career... but it did not make me dissy or less responsable.... cheers Walter.

ok I see, so he looks at the future of that particular stock ?... am I right ? Soul can you repeat the interpretation with (maybe) a chart example of this ssf pre market volume on a gapping day?.... very nice detail there.... thanks Walter.

Hi, could someone tell me what SSF stands for ? thanks Walter.

mkp : sorry for my delay, I did take a small vacation with holidays here... should I remeber you this was just experimental... I dont trade this method at all... it has nice potenciall but as any technique you should get really good at it before trading.... I attach the indicators from previous posts... you can open the formulas and learn how to put conditions for color and width at easylanguage to maximize your visual aide.... should you check inputs according to interval being used.... cheers Walter. W EXPERIMENT.ELD

Nice Notouch, do you know of any site or literature where I can inform my self in detail about the interpretation of each economic indicator and their expected outcomes depending on +/- numbers... (maybe a pdf) It makes great sense that + or - numbers should have an expected outcome... thanks for the feedback... Walter.

Hello, I want to ask some one more instructed fundamental trader, if there is a list of expected outcomes for a positive / negative number from an economical indicator.... example : for home sales if positive number, expect an up move, for negative number expect a down move and so on for each economical indicator.... I know probably this is a stupid thread but the question is Is there any normal expected move for an x +/- economic number ?.... thanks Walter.

financial guru jejejeje

Very smart, high iq people can trade without indicators, more stupid left brained people we need them to help us trade... indicators themselfs wont make you rich... concepts of price action wich are independent to indicators will make you profitable... now some indicators amplify does concepts and help silly people like me to trade.... cheers Walter.

Soul : so far all the parameters I am using are for this very small chart... now the cci 50 should be 50 on a 233 T chart.... I am using it 500 (10 times) on this 23 T chart... about the stochastic will take longer waves on a bigger scale,even if we put a smaller input, similar to using a cci 14 on 233T chart... I like to scalp...I do that with my M`s, thought this trend trades could perform also very well ... Russell gives you in 2-3 good trades $100 per contract... I am happy with that money on a daily basis... cheers Walter.

Here is some example today on the first hour of trading... now we know where the blue arrows come from.... its not perfect but it does perform pretty decently.... On next posts I will deal with stops and exits.... Still figuring out... This are pure trend trades, compatible for left brained stupid slow people like me jejejeje... no big brainer.... cheers Walter

Ok, here I come with a first very simple "Timing" idea.... its based on the Momentum context... you must have a momentum present.... once that is true I plot a Classic Stochastic that will go to the oposite extreme (30/70) and come back cross it.... I programed him to take color and width if the cci 50 has met the momentum conditions.... so far so good.... cheers Walter.

gojun : I understand basicly what you mean and it makes a lot of sense... I think we dont have access to that type of data here on US markets... and never seen ploted on a chart that information... its very interesting the type of data your market gives to their participants... cheers Walter.

Well, in this case it did crash... lol. notouch: you should take into acct that sometimes some concepts do not need a cientific backtesting... the core concept is there.... by no means one index will represent the entire institutional holdings, but there is an old saying in my country that says "para muestra basta un boton"... one example is enogh to know whats inside the entire box... that means that that index could be representing a lot more... example the dow index is build with just 30 stocks... but its says a lot and it speeks for the entire nyse... openes of mind can be very helpfull on the interpretation of this indexes... cheers Walter.