walterw

Nice, nice... in my last two weeks experience with "flip" sharing charts with good and bad performance has seriously helped me to be accountable on what I am doing, also my learning curve has been much faster by posting and comparing my own posts... in terms of stats, would be cool... nice idea indeed... I still promote you guys sharing charts on a consistent daliy basis, its of great help for yourself and for does that are interested on your aproach... cheers Walter.

Ok , so here we go now... let me start deliberating on exit alternatives for our flip trade... not easy, but not imposible... once we get some where with this topic and make our minds about how to exit we would probably have a nice complete decent system to trade... with a clear entry stop and exit Alternatives ? lots... _we can use a mathematical RRR aproach as early debated on this thread... _we can use technicals on the price pane, maybe average cross ? why not a WRB candle ? _we can use cci readings.. _for the more prepared they can exit with tape... lots lots lots.... obviously each trader here may want to use their exit that fits their personality... I clearly think that "flip" its an entry aproach itself and that the exits to apply should be individually choosen by each trader as it fits their personality... So from here on what I am going to present will respond to MY personality and its not necesarily the best alternative... I would expect to hear diferent alternatives to mine to see what traders are being able to come up in terms of exits for flips... Here I will present MY exit alternative that fits my style : I like to follow CCI for my exits... they make my life a little more easy... dont forget I am left brained... So in terms of CCI we have a series of alternatives... let start with this point: I dont pretend to take the entire move, it doesnt hurt me to leave money on the table... what I understand that will hurt me is if I have a bad RRR ... ok ? now most of this flip trades, just about all off them on this 55T russell chart with my stop criteria stated on the above post have given me an average stop of -5 or -6 ticks.... so going for a 5 to 8 ticks profit will put my RRR on a 1/1 to 1/1.5 RRR and here comes the fact that just about ALL succesfull flips had made it above 5 ticks moves... aha ¡¡¡ On the other side ( and I know some traders dont share this with me ) but I am a man that likes to make his 100 bucks per contract per day and enjoy life after that... So.... you see how exit strategies are tailored acording to traders personality ? ok, let me come back to cci... and let me make clear I am not a CCI er... was... not any more... BUT cci can do some nice decent jobs for stupid people... When CCI reaches a level you may want to say, I am done... its good enough for me and when that level happens to fit your $ expectations for the day together with a good RRR relationship with my stops... well good ¡¡ I am out... could had made a 100 bucks more ? who cares ? it met my expectations.... I am happy and ever after... so CCI hook from extreme HFE can be one... +-100 recross other... and for the machos recross of 0 line... again I say : thats what makes ME happy... On the example from today, you can see two trades that delivered +6 ticks each... and then the market moved 30 ticks more... insane ¡¡¡ why did you get out ¡¡... well let me tell you, I, me, Walter did not know that super move was ahead... it could perfectly not happened... but I, me, Walter made my 100 bucks... so again... no frustration.... It worked swift, made my day I am not trying to catch fantastic moves that may never come... so my exit strategy really really fits my personallity... would love to hear yours ¡¡ cheers Walter.

MX : On the cyan count of your chart dont you have the completion of a 5th wave ? meaning we could call a correction ?... and we have both analisis notouch (candle and volume ) and wave counts in allignment ?...

I see... in the case it pullbacks, I asume you will monitor a fibonacci level or an adrew pitchfork for timing ?

Nice chart there Notouch... what would be your timing entry criteria in the case this starts heading south ? thanks Walter.

Today is tuesday may 15, I atach charts of most clear flip trades today... On the first hour we almost did not get flips because they would break levels but dont come back to retest them, momentum was there... Today I timed entries with cci 0 line cross.... My first stop idea its when we cross 0 against us... that would be a stop... cheers Walter. PD : attached charts are russell 55 Tick with keltner exp 100, 5 atr and cci 14

Wave counts can be a hard task, now what MX is showing has to be monitored very closely, a break on does highs will be a key event... if it happens it will shure validate his wave counts... cheers Walter.

for daytraders here is the last 1 min flips today... cheers Walter.

Here I want to share a daytrader`s perspective on flips using a 1 min chart... For today, flips where very clear.. cheers Walter.

Hello fellow traders ¡¡ todays flips are a nice example of context considerations in terms of momentum and non-momentum conditions, we could say that flips taken on a non-mometum area have less chance of success vs flips been taken on momentum areas where the market has more chance to take some nice temperature... today so far we had 2 clear flips, the first one happened on the mid band area wich is certainly a non-momentum area and got finally stopped.... the second one happened in the inmediations of the outerband where we can expect momentum to build up wich actually happened making a nice decent trade... with this observation in mind it would be very recomendable to take "momentum flips" wich would happen at the outerbands area... so we keep adding this nuances to the flip aproach... feel free to interact.. cheers Walter.

adx may show, but as to my experience it lags too much... meaning when adx starts to show strength you lost almost half the trip already... I like more to see standard deviations or atr levels where you can recognize the market taking more temperature... and without lagging that much...

Malvado : Now I start to see your technical edge... I see you do Elliot, have you done elliot on smaller time frames ?, always been curios if a scalper can eventually use elliot... good stuf, makes sense, please keep adding its good for you, its good for us.. I dont know how many ellioticians we have here at TL, so I encourage you to take the lead on this great topic... cheers Walter.

yes Malvado, wave counts on a bigger time frame can perfectly be a way of measuring momentum... would be interesting to determine statistically how many times (mostly) the 3rd wave performs outside keltner.... cheers Walter.

Hello everyone ¡¡ we know that market climate could be classified into two great catergories: momentum (strength, trending) and non-momentum (weak, non trending) conditions... thus giving us two clear contexts in order to trade diferent type of strategies... For example if you have momentum conditions you may want to trade trend trades and trail your position as long as possible... now if you have non-momentum conditions you may want to scalp the cycles back and forth... So its a trader`s MUST to understand market climate... his strategy may work on certain conditions, or may not on other conditions... so if he understands the conditions his strategy has more chance to succeed... There are many ways to understand market climate.... one of the ways I always look for that is on a 110T (russell) chart with a keltner 50 exp 3.5 atr... if bars are inside keltner, market is on non-momentum conditions, if market gets outside of keltner we have momentum conditions... Now I want to show a very nice new way I find to measure climate... In this case I am going to use a 200V (russell) chart and on the price pane will have a 20 simple ma and a 50 simple ma with a keltner 50 simple 1 atr ... You will notice that when the 20sma its "outside" the keltner and doesnt come back inside we got momentum, when "inside" we have non-momentum.... Simple as that... from there on you can see diferent strategies you can work on.... let me attach some examples.... cheers Walter.

I want to add here the discretionary alternative that will give a more early entry signal but could have more potencial noise... I would consider using it in very slow market conditions like happened today at first hour... Instead of taking the 0 line cross, you can enter the trade with the +-50 line cross on the desired direction: -50 from below for longs, +50 from above for shorts... In terms of timing I think we got two clear decent alternatives to take flip trades.... cci 0 line cross or cci +-50 lines cross... This can be monitored on the cci 14 at a 55T chart or a cci 35 on a 22T chart.... any of them will give you the same signals... On the below example the two trades where not super trades, the market was dull, now for a scalper it worked 5 ticks each trade... wich its very good... in that case the +-50 entries would had been very competitive...

Here are the flips to the end of the trading day... cheers Walter.

Brown : I asume your trading style is "daytrading".... if that is the case you need more than one hour of session to get a decent trade completed... For a "scalper" as I am, a trade may be 2 or 3 min long and your targets for the day may be met... so 1 hour gives you plenty trade oportunities. So the 1 hour strategy I think is more suited for scalping.... and would not be proper on a day trading style... cheers Walter.

Malvado : I know you are trying to share you market input, wich can be very valid... you may notice that here at TL we use a lot of backup sustaining chart analisis to make our opinions valid... maybe you should start adding some charts on your posts so we can understand what you are talking about and where do you make foundation of your argument... I by no means say your arguments are not valid, I just dont see the argument validated on a chart with a technical analisis clear explanation.... So I encourage you to start using more chart ilustrations on your posts... It help you, it will help the forum with some rich educational material... Otherwise we are just especulating where this market will go... and we all know that we dont know where it will go... cheers Walter.

Hello fellow traders ¡¡ today is may 11-07 , on the first part today we had a coiled cyclycal market indeed... One way to see that is the fact that we couldnt break the keltner outerbands.. In terms of flips, a day like this one, its recomendable to take coil breaks type flips and dont try to trade the flips that happen inside the coil... Now, after a coil break we normally expect some trending conditions... in a very fu#*¡¡ed coiled day the coil break goes from coil to coil... thus creating some frustration to the trader... Here some psicological discipline may come handy and a clear understanding that a day like this would be more suited to walk your dog on the park... Now let me share some of todays flips and see some interesting nuances that could lead to more succesfull flip trades... on the first chart you can see coil breaks flips that dont go anywhere, they just create a new coil... On the second chart things got a little more trendy... and flips did perform a little better after breaking the coil... Now One trick here : if the break takes on the Keltner Outerbands , then there are more chances to expect some momentum (trending) ahead.... So the energy of the break could give some hint on how much energy the flip will have... Remeber that any setup has to take into consideration in wich market climate its situated... keltner bands are good tools to measure cyclycal or momentum conditions... PD: I am using a 100 exponetial 5 atr keltner bands on a 55T russell chart. cheers Walter.

Ok, at this point of this beta process I clearly made my mind about how I would handle timing for the flip trade... thought there are a lot of alternatives, I came to the conclussioin that the cci 0 line cross is the most reliable and clear signal... cheers Walter.

Thanks Tin ¡¡

jejejjeje, good one ¡¡ I will buy puts tomorrow ¡¡¡

Nice Keltner there Tin, could you share what inputs do they have, are they simple or exponential ? thanks Walter.

jejejej good Mr Paul ¡¡¡ and yes Brown, normally on my type of play the game happens on the first hour... after that usually its over... dont forget I am a scalper, not a day trader... cheers Walter.

More flips today... cheers Walter.