pipMonster

Initially, I felt left out of the continuation of the move down having taken profit at +148. I can see now that sleep was my protector, keeping me from jumping in and out of the run down. I'm only demoing this setup as it is, but I was able to grab a pretty decent entry.

Your week is starting off very well, my friend. Very well indeed.

It's the largest 'gap' over a weekend that I can remember. Wasp, do you have any good real time forex news sources on the web? The Reuters FXHub recently shut down(which I felt was one of the best outlets) and nothing else seems to come close. Thanks in advance.

It's up to 193.85/4.05 on Oanda as I write this. Can we safely assume the retrace is on? :o

Wasp, Great thread, I'm enjoying it immensely. Thanks to you, Firewalker and Cowpip for your time and effort. Question for Wasp: Have you ever used this strategy with other charting packages? The reason I ask is Alpari is based on a different time zone than FXDD which is different than ProRealTime, which is different from Oanda. You get the picture. If so, can you say which ones(s) and which time zones(i.e. GMT, GMT+1, GMT-1, etc.,) did or didn't work out? Thanks in advance.

I'm right with you cowpip. These are the days that test the wider time frame trader, because we never know when the move is going to start. Wasp, are you now deriving your s/r levels from the hourly chart only or are you transferring from the 4-hr and using the hourly for entries? Cowpip, you and I all trade a similar style. I find it interesting to suss out the differences.

Kids?!? I sold mine for more account funding. :o

yep, I was totally expecting it. Reuters was putting out a good bit of info that stated UK data was expected to be very weak. The UK is on the verge of, if not in, a recession. Add to that the low liquidity of the market in August and traders can expect substantial movement. I don't know if you checked out cable, but it tanked equally as much. I was short eur/jpy and scored a 'measly' +30 before price encountered the 38.2% fib from the hourly chart.

It's most likely the 15-min chart triple bottom at 205.26, which is within the 20 pip zone of previous 240-min support of ~205.15. If anything, this is finally the level to be long from as the Asian session quieted down in a big way. Cowpip - I hope you have your alarm set to check in on your trade before the 4 hr interval is up because your trade is jamming!

No one has gone short @ 213.39??

I was wondering if Buk got it because I hadn't heard from him. I laughed myself silly. There are a couple of other posts in the video section of The Onion that are classics. Glad you enjoyed it.

Hey there Anna and Tess, Since it's exceedingly slow this morning, I thought I would point you all to a very important article: http://www.theonion.com/content/news/recession_plagued_nation_demands - Jack

Hi Jocelyn, Would be so kind as to tell me what your Cci settings are? Thanks a million, Jack

Aloha! Hey there Tess and Cary...good to hear from you. I'm still cranking along, though the last couple of days have not been all that great for me trading wise. I just looked around this forum the other day and didn't see any new posts. I'll try and post a bit more often. Take care, Jack

Hi Anna-Maria, I've been using that simple little beauty of a strat since Buk gave Cary and I a heads up about it around two week ago. It's been working quite well for me. Hook it up to sensible s/r levels, a reversal candle, and away you go! Good to see you back Anna-Maria. - Jack

I have to agree with both Cowpip and Bramble. Without a doubt patience, discipline, practice and solid money management skills are cornerstones of successful trading. One thing I believe needs to be mentioned and that is trading through a trustworthy broker. A broker is not expected be your friend, but they shouldn't be thought of as another trap for inexperienced traders. There are stories too numerous to mention regarding duplicitous brokers who trade against you or subtly add/subtract a few pips near levels where they know many of their clients have placed stops. There are other brokers who will balance their lopsided books by severely widening the spread, sometimes to 25 pips, just before important data releases thus triggering any nearby stops and knocking the trader out of what might normally have been a profitable position. I would recommend using an ECN broker. The only drawback I've found to using an ECN broker is the trader needs to be keenly aware of over trading. Because ECN's charge a commission and not a spread, the commissions can eat your account quickly. Cowpip has it right that keeping your strategy simple is the way to go. Too many indicators and lines clutter up your screen and your mind leading to analysis paralysis, or indecision. Try starting off with the tried and true: Fib levels, Round numbers(50 & 00), Daily & Weekly pivots, candle patterns that give clues to the momentum of price. The best trades start as failures of price to continue through a strong level of support or resistance. Always use a top down analysis which means to start at the wider time frames and move in when doing your Technical Analysis. Good trading to you!

Was everyone as surprised as I was at the huge sell off to start the market off for the week? I was able to get a little something out of cable within the last hour:

The wonderful thing about analysis is that there are two sides. My view is predicated on the shorter term outlook where as Cary is looking at the much larger picture. I believe there is definitely room for both views. It's quite possible to have a short term (two weeks) $ rally only to see it reverse and take out the old highs. The monthly chart shows 2/3 of an inverted head and shoulders pattern? It could take all of next year to play out. I wouldn't be surprised if there was quite a bit of central bank buying to try and keep the $ in line and below the magic $2 threshold. Keep in mind the current Bush Admin is fully aware of what would happen should the $ 'get away' from them. They brought Treasury Sec. Paulson(sic) in from Goldman Sachs to manage the weak $ scenario. We also have no idea what the UK and US central banks are saying to each other (at least I don't). I'm sure they're both trying to manage the situation without overheating the Pound Sterling or weakening the buck too far. Cary, that's an excellent analysis. I can't wait to see how it plays out. No matter how it does, hopefully we can all pull some profits from it.

I wonder if cable has just run out of gas on this rally. There was a surprise rate hike. A lot of good data to support it, but not great data. There in lies part of the problem. The U.S. economy showed signs of life. I think the BoE minutes this week will be important, but possibly not enough to hold off a $ rally. True enough, the trend is till up but there are multiple past tops in this area that price has not passed convincingly. The 78.6 fib has supported price Friday, though we see lower highs forming along with a couple of lower lows, though these lows were rejected convincingly as shown by the long wicks. It could be attributed to dip buyers. The 14ema is also supporting. You could almost blend together the two previous candles (not the final one) into a doji. Indecision anyone? One more thing: oil. Oil prices are as low as we've seen in quite some time due to the mild winter weather on the US east coast. U.S. consumers need only to get a taste of lower oil prices to get spending in gear. It'll also lead to a dip in the US trade balance sheet. It's only temporary, but it may be enough for a decent rally. I just noticed slight divergence in the MACD in the image below. Hmmm....

I tried FT some time ago and felt it was overly complicated in it's interface. When it came time to add indicators (the few that I use), the whole multiple time frame in a window thing was too confusing. Metatrader, Tradestation or ProReal Time charts are much better alternatives, though all have their difficulties of use. Just my opinion which could be changed as more info becomes available.

Very nice pattern call outs on the above charts, Torero! I hope your trades do well for you. Thanks for your input on the forum. I'm picking up quite a bit from your style of trading.

I'm totally confused with the reaction from the UK CPI data print. I would think that with CPI being at a decade high of 3.0, the pound would have rocketed off. Any ideas or explanations?

Thanks Buk! This info is greatly appreciated and will be added to the tool box. -Jack

Buk, Do you follow the $index vs COT on a daily chart? Is that a proprietary plug-in for TradeStation plotting the three different levels of COT? How often is the COT data released? Thanks, Jack

I wasn't available to trade this session as I was too tired and fighting a bit of an illness earlier. You're welcome Torero, for what ever bits of information I can bring to the table. Like Cowpip, I'm very impressed with your eye for spotting patterns and solid trading these past weeks. Buk and Anna, I want to thank you both for the fantastic commentary and illustrations of your positions. It really helps solidify the process. It's a bit like the 'old' days now on a previous forum. Cowpip...great trading mate! You really let 'em have it this week. Way to Go! Have a great weekend, and see you all back here Monday.