Office rat

:pc guru: Buy USD before it goes up Last March trading week did not uncover any surprises. Optimistic forecasts for the US economy proved false. Economic growth ratio for the forth quarter was reviewed down. Preliminary data showed DGP growth of 5.9%, the reviewed reading was cut to 5.6% annual rate. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped 0.6% against February. Financial crisis in Greece will be resolved with IMF involvement, but this does not solve general problems of the EU as a whole. European and American stock indexes growth does not inspire much confidence among professional market participants, neither do current energy prices. By the end of the first fiscal half year and first quarter of 2010 there are just as many problems as before, and hopes for the near end of crisis remain hopes. Results and Current Situation USD buying volume has grown during the past week and EUR buying has lessened noticeably. Commodity currencies however remained at high levels, which does not guarantee steady growth of commodities and stock markets. For the past week EUR gained 0.8% against the six currencies' basket. USD appreciation against the portfolio comprised 5.7% for the week, still this figure does not point at serious increase in USD buying volume. Japan's Central Bank will release its annual report on March 31st. Professional market participants will not be taking any trading decisions before the report is out. CAD, AUD, and NOK. For the past week currencies dependant on raw materials export - CAD and AUD - declined against the US dollar. AUD/USD has gone two figures down and closed at 0.9035; USD/CAD went one figure up, to the level 1.0265. USD/NOK closed above an important 6.00 level at 6.03. Commodities currencies' decline signals unstable conditions for oil, gold and copper markets. EUR EUR/USD settled 120 points lower at 1.3405. 1.35 range remains intact and attempts to trade EUR/USD around 1.3250-1.3350 did not last. Prices stayed only one day in the $3250-3350 area. GBP GBP/USD could not break out of strategic 1.50 area either, the pair declined to 1.49 from 1.5012. The week's trade finished at 1.4900. JPY USD/JPY has grown. Still it closed at 92.50, which gives equal chances for growth towards 95 as well as for decline to 90. The last trading week before BoJ report of the financial year results was marked by considerably weaker trading volumes on major currency pairs on the interbank market. Expectations, Prognosis The starting week will conclude trading cycles of March, the first quarter and the fiscal half year. Conversion operations and liquidity of major currency pairs is expected to increase on the interbank market, this can result in higher volatility. There will not be a definite trading direction this week, whereas short-term speculation risks increase considerably. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market GBP/USD – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market USD/CHF – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market USD/JPY – 92.12-93.31, consolidation, out of the market AUD/USD – 0.8969-0.9069, consolidation, out of the market USD/CAD – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market USD/JPY – 79.12-80.31, consolidation, out of the market

Buy USD before it gets expensive Bank analysts are telling a bare faced lie about their intention to buy USD Quite to the contrary. Banks are buying EUR as long as it has a potential for further decline. Banks are suggesting that the whole market should break the laws of trading logics and buy the appreciating dollar. That is exactly why l banks have started to revise down their forecasts for EUR/USD in the end of the previous week. For example, in the end of the week considerations appeared on the market, that Fed may raise its discount rate and Peoples Bank of China may further tighten reservation conditions. Anticipation of such steps by the Fed and the PBC is enough for USD to grow and for EUR to weaken. Banks being the only professional market participants will chose the most profitable middle term instrument. What will the banks choose? EUR of course, and they will sell appreciating dollar to us and to the rest of the market. The market is ready to obey the rules of this game. Results and Current Situation The major indicator of the last week was the preparation for the fiscal half year end, as well as the end of the first 2010 quarter. By the end of the week banks were reassured that the financial crises is coming to its end and Fed is ready to start withdrawing cheap dollar from circulation. The period of dollar accumulation, spurred by anti-crisis measures, which started in the 2nd. quarter of 2009 is over soon. The time of commodity currencies buying for a high and obviously not particularly favorable price is also finishing. We are at the onset of the actual end-phase of the world financial crisis. CAD, AUD, and NOK. CAD и AUD growth has slowed down considerably for the past week, whereas NOC lost 0.14% against USD. Still, commodity currencies continued to grow against EUR. AUD/USD closed at 0. 9151 on Friday, March 19th. and the week before, March 12th. - at 0.9155 USD/CAD closed at 1.0162, and the week before at 1.0179; USD/NOK grew from 5.83 to 5.90. EUR EUR/USD trade finished at 1.3530. For the week EUR lost 0,2% against USD. GBP British pound finished 1.1% lower. The trade closed at 1.5015 Friday. JPY USD/JPY did not change noticeably, staying within 90.12- 90.69 area. Trade finished at 90.51 Friday. For the past week conversion operations on the market and the major currencies liquidity have diminished. Expectations, Prognosis For the starting week the number of customer orders to buy USD prevails on the market. Most probably more CAD и AUD longs will be closed. Trading volume is likely to lessen, which can cause contradictory movements within 50-100 points range. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3412-1,3588, consolidation GBP/USD – 1,4931-1,5088, consolidation USD/CHF – 1,0569-1,0669, consolidation USD/JPY – 90,12-90,88, consolidation AUD/USD – 9088-9188, consolidation, decline USD/CAD –1,0131-1,0269, consolidation, possible growth Brent – 80,31-78,69, possible decline

Preliminary Half-Year Results don't Inspire Much Confidence in Euro Preliminary half-year results look sad for Euro. For the incomplete period of 6 months EUR has already lost 5.6% against USD. Although USD cannot boast great achievements either. It has lost 6.4% against AUD and 5.6% against CAD. Whereas EUR lost even more against CAD, and AUD. Since the start of trade in October 2009 EUR lost 11.4%, against CAD and 11.2% against AUD. Financial problems in Europe still deserve some attention, but investors' concerns have largely waned. US economy needs to keep interest rates low, and in the near future there is no reason to expect a hike. Although commodity currencies dominate the market, that is the end of financial year in Japan (March 31) that becomes the most influential factor. In the end of the past week analysts have finally thought of possible interventions, that Bank of Japan can conduct to stop JPY appreciation. There were talks, that Japan's Central Bank can lower the interest rate. The BoJ meeting will take place March 16-17. Results and Current Situation EUR EUR/USD growth on Thursday and Friday reflected increased USD buying and weaker buying interest in EUR. As a result, the weekly EUR/USD trading cycle finished below 1.3769 Friday and therefore the 37-th market pattern remained untouched. The trading range formed during the past 5 weeks in the 1.35-1.37 area is still in place. GBP. The GBP downward movement continued, it has lost 4.4% from the start of the fiscal half-year. Trade finished at 1.52 Friday. Thus, GBP/USD heading towards 1.48-1.4850 does not raise doubts. JPY. USD/JPY stays near 90.0 area. On Friday USD/JPY closed at 90.50, and from the start of the fiscal half-year dollar appreciation comprised 70 points. The pair stands still awaiting the BoJ report of the annual financial results. CAD and AUD. CAD and AUD appreciation remain the major factor in the market. Strengthening of Canadian and Australian currencies displays, that objective commodities assets growth and economic recovery as a whole are yet to come. USD/CAD settled at 1.0189 Friday, March 12 and AUD/USD closed at 0.9150. The market is dominated by technical indicators of exchange rates' moves for the 5 months period. Expectations, Prognosis During the starting week's trade USD buying is likely to increase. CAD and AUD appreciation trend will also remain valid. Some short-term changes in the market are likely to appear by Wednesday, March 17th, when Bank of Japan’s meeting closes, in case USD/JPY get hold in the 91.31-91.69 area, which is very likely. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3531-1,3812, consolidation, possible decline GBP/USD – 1,4931-1,5269, consolidation USD/CHF –1,0512-1,0769, consolidation, possible growth USD/JPY – 90,12-91,31, consolidation, growth AUD/USD – 0,9012-0,9212 consolidation, decline USD/CAD –1,0512-1,0769, consolidation, possible growth Brent – 80,69-78,12 consolidation, possible decline Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

Currency Market Review 3/8/10 - 3/12/10. Currency Market Review 3/8/10 - 3/12/10. Flight into the Commodity Currencies Continues. Regardless of US and EU macroeconomic statistics’ interpretation, buying of commodity currencies remains the major trading factor. Market participants are not sure, that the current high prices of raw materials and equities have a solid ground, this uncertainty is enhances by doubts concerning further changes in USD value. UE financial perils as well as hesitant economic recovery in the US slow down USD and EUR buying activity. Uncertainty about currency and raw materials market prospects, conversely, boosts AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD buying. Results and Current Situation Expectations for increased USD buying on positive economic data failed, by the end of the week EUR and USD value against the 8 currencies basket went down. For the past week, AUD has gained 1.3% against USD and 0.3% against EUR. AUD/USD settled at 0.9075. CAD also appreciated against EUR and USD. CAD added 2.09% against both USD and EUR. NZD and NOK strengthened against USD and EUR as well. EUR, USD have only managed to grow against JPY and GBP. By the end of the week GBP/USD has declined to 1.5130, USD gained 0.8%. EUR/GBP settled at 1.8990, which reflected 0.7% EUR appreciation. EUR and USD showed equal growth against JPY. On Friday USD/JPY exchange rates closed at 90.30, which makes up 1% dollar appreciation for the week. EUR gained 1.65% against JPY. EUR/JPY cross rate pair has grown from 121.0 to 123.00. Thus, by the end of the week currency market has come to the impasse choosing a further direction for the second 2010 quarter. Expectations, Prognosis All told, market participant mood is likely to shift towards increased USD buying during the current week. USD is used for international commodity trade, it cannot be substituted by a different currency, and therefore USD buying is predestined. EUR trading above 1.35 also speaks in favor of USD growth, as it makes it more profitable to open dollar longs from this important level. Still this week’s trade can go on without a clear direction within narrow ranges. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3531-1,3669, consolidation GBP/USD – 1,4931-1,5269, consolidation USD/CHF – 1,0669-1,0769, consolidation USD/JPY – 0,8969-0,9131, consolidation, growth AUD/USD – 0,9012-0,9131 consolidation USD/CAD – 1,0231-1,0343, consolidation Brent – 80,69-78,12 consolidation, possible decline

Time has come for EUR longs profit taking Financial crisis’ aftermath as well as credit problems of Greece, Portugal and Spain retain their negative influence over EUR to certain extent. This background doesn't let analysts and regular currency market participants to cast off their worries concerning further decline of EUR in the near future. Stock market and raw materials market bubbles are the major threat. Results and Current Situation Last week's results have not changed the tendency for EUR depreciation and by the time of session closing Friday February 19th. EUR/USD reached 1,3609. From year start EUR has lost 5,09% against USD. The major indicator of USD growth last week was USD/JJPY surpassing 0,9150. By the end of the week's trade USD/JPY advanced from 0,8935 and closed at 0,9160. USD gained 2,57% against JPY for the period. USD strengthening in its added to further GBP decline, GBP/USD closed at 1,5470. From year start GBP has lost 6,06% against USD. Depreciation of EUR, GBP and JPY served as a catalyst for AUD, NZD and CAD growth, all three currencies are dependant on raw materials export. For the week AUD/USD has grown up to 0,8987 and USD/CAD closed at 1, 0391. That is the high levels of "raw materials currencies’" trade, that raises fear for bubbles on the raw materials market. From the start of the year CAD has grown 0,47%, which entailed oil getting more expensive. March North Sea blend Brent crude oil has finished the week at the level, where the year's trade began - 78,45. Expectations, Prognosis For the last February week chances are high for USD buying volumes to grow against EUR, GBP and JPY. One of the factors working for USD strengthening is the start of profit taking cycle on EUR long positions; another one is USD buying volume increase. We can also expect profit taking on raw materials market, oil decline and AUD, NZD and CAD downward correction. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3350-1,3669, decline GBP/USD – 1,3350-1,3669, decline USD/CHF – 1,0688-1,0988, growth USD/JPY – 0,9112-0,9288, growth AUD/USD – 0,9031-0,8788, consolidation with decline USD/CAD – 1,0369-1,0588, consolidation, growth Brent – 79,31-75,12, decline

4-months of the fiscal half year EUR trend points at 1.33 General background of the second February week was not in favour of the Single European currency. Negative tone was aggravated by weak EU macroeconomic staticstics and Greece's financial problems. Still the most important factor was the decion of China's central bank to raise the reserve ratio for Chinese banks by 50 basis points, which was announced on Friday. Results and Current Situation The ending of the second February week was in fact the result of the four months of fiscal half year period as well as the first half of the first 2010 quarter. Since the beginning of the fiscal half year period in October EUR has lost 6,45% against USD by session closing on Friday. 4-month EUR/USD decline comprised 9 figures or 950 points. EUR has lost considerably against currencies dependant of raw materials exports such as AUD and CAD (9% and 9.2%). Technically EUR/USD is moving in a well formed downward trend towards the area of 1.33-1.3350, which can be reached by the end of the 1st quarter of 2010 . As results of the last week's trade show, EUR is held back from sinking below 1.35 only by 1.3650 area (1.3612-1.3688). In the meanwhile the week's trade of USD against JPY goes around 0.90 without a clear deriction. This fact shows that it is EUR depreciation that plays the key role in the market and not USD growth. EUR/GBP cross rate decline below 0.8750 helped GBP/USD stay above 1.5650. GBP exchange rates have settled in the comfortable area between the 1.55 and 1.60 levels within a range of 1.57-1.58. This proves once again that the value of EUR is deminishing. The idea, that the USD is ready to grow, but not yet growing is proved by the fact that AUD/USD climbed from 0.8650 to 0.8870 by the end of trade Friday. Persistant relative USD weakness is also sertified by the fact that by the week's end USD/CAD has declined from 1.07 to 1.05 levels. Expectations, Prognosis Within the period from 15 to 19 February curreny market trends will be dominated by Japanese currency purchases for EUR, GBP and raw materials currencies and general EUR weakness. Federal Reserve rate increase has not become an active factor so far, although it was mentioned in the report by thу FRS President Ben Bernanke. Market participants will be assessing oil market in the range of 71,50-73,50 (Brent oil) and the possibility of prices breaking outside of this range. Apart from that traders will be watching Dow Jones Index dynamics around 10000, within the range of 9850-10150. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1.3350-1.3769, decline GBP/USD – 1.3350-1.3769, decline USD/CHF – 1.0669-1.0931, growth USD/JPY – 0.8931-0.9096, consilidation AUD/USD – 0.8712-0.8931, consilidation with potential decline USD/CAD – 1.0431-1.0688, consilidation with potential growth Brent – 71. 50-73.88, consilidation, potential decline

Yes, I disagree cause these weeks we resemled the work. Sure, this interruption was and other traders are clever enough to note that.

I wish you were as successful in your trading as in monitoring what other people say on forums.

Thank you, guy, for you care, But I think we will manage.

Does it make you frustrate? :crap:

Currency Market Review 2/06/10 - 2/12/10 EUR below 2008 closing The first February week ended with considerable EUR lowering and USD growth. Banks' buying USD against EUR, AUD and NZD in the end of the week was spurred by 5% decline of indexes on Lisbon and Madrid exchanges. Continuing concerns over swelling budget deficits and sovereign debts of EU member countries bolsters banks' appetite for USD. Currency market participants don't take EUR for a serious alternative to USD. Markititraxx Europe Index climbing to the 9-week maximum has further propelled USD against EUR. Michal Gomez, a senior vice president at Pimco (Pacific Investment Management Co) one of the largest investment companies in the world, advices to keep away from EUR, Euro zone and some of the developing European countries’ currencies. Results and Current Situation During February 1- 5 trading week EUR has lost 1.44% against USD. EUR/USD slid two figures lower from 1.3850 level to 1.3650 by session closing Friday. Increased USD buying resulted in lowering of the currencies dependant on raw materials export, AUD and NZD. They have lost 100 points. At the same time CAD remained relatively strong against USD. USD/CAD growth for the week comprised 10 points. CAD received support form the oil market, which managed to stay above the $70 level. GBP turned out to be the biggest looser last week. By trade closing on February 5th GBP has lost 2.15%, which was reflected in GBP/USD decline of 345 points, from 1.5975 to 1.5630. The major factor of last week's trade was a tendency of decline not only against USD but also against JPY. Growing interest in buying USD against other currencies could not hinder JPY appreciation. By the end of the week JPY added 0.034% against USD. USD/JPY has gone from 0.9025 down to 0.8935. The general JPY growth against other currencies in the market surpassed USD growth. This factor is a strong signal of further weakening of EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD. Expectations, Prognosis In the February 8-12 period currency market will remain pressured by increased buying of Japanese and American currencies . Possible attempts of EUR, GBP and other currencies buying in the first half of the week will be countered with large JPY purchases by cross rates. JPY buying will intensify EUR decline and USD growth. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3350-1,3769, decline GBP/USD – 1,3350-1,3769, decline USD/CHF – 1,0669-1,0888, growth USD/JPY – 0,8831-0,8969, declining consolidation AUD/USD – 0,8331-0,8769, decline USD/CAD – 1,0631-1,0869 growing consolidation Brent – 68,88-71,50 consolidation, range Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

EUR below 2008 closing level In January currency market was focused on financial problems of European countries and their budget deficits on the first place. Late last week we have learnt that Standard & Poor's does not count British banks among the most low risks banking systems / Weakness of major American stock indexes and oil prices below $75 a barrel boosted USD growth by the end of the third week of January . US fourth quarter GDP data also contributed to dollar's advance. GDP has growth 5,7% against the third quarter of 2009 year on year, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce reported. This numbers turned out much better, than analysts expected. Results and Current Situation In 2009 the major trend was appreciation of currencies dependant of raw materials export (AUD and NZD) and USD decline. This tendency has created a misleading picture of EUR strength. In fact AUD and NZD were also often bought for EUR. Absence of objective basis for EUR/USD growth in November resulted in market going below 1.50. Technical trend of the last quarter of 2009 - lowering from 1.4350 - sent EUR/USD towards the 2008 closing - 1.40. It was only owing to EUR/GBP cross rate trade against EUR, that GBP/USD held near the 1.6150 -1.6350 area in January . EUR/GBP decline dynamics did not reflect the USD growth, but was a EUR depreciation factor, this allowed GBP/USD to stay at 1.60 by the end of January trade. Currencies dependant on raw materials export - AUD and NZD - declined from key levels. AUD closed below 0.90 at 0. 8835, аnd NZD finished the month at 0.70. Closing above 0.88 and 0.70 came as a result of EUR/AUD EUR/NZD cross rate lowering and gold sinking below 1100 an ounce. USD/CAD grew to 1.0705 on oil decline. January EUR/USD closing shows, that for the period from the beginning of 2009 USD added 0,78%, from 1.3960 to 1.3850. USD appreciation is not yet big enough for EUR/USD to fall substantially in the first February week. Expectations, Prognosis In the February 1-5 period currency market will have a hard time choosing further direction. Market participant might wish to take profit on some long USD positions in the beginning of the month. Fourth quarter financial statements of banks and companies will become a major factor influencing trading decisions. Traders will pay special attention to JPY movements. In January USD/JPY kept moving downward and closed in 0.90 filter between 0.9012 and 0.9031. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1.3788-1.4095, attempts to grow, potential decline GBP/USD – 1.3788-1.4095, attempts to grow, potential decline USD/CHF – 1.0431-1.0712, attempts to decline, potential growth USD/JPY – 0.8731-0.9188 attempts to grow, potential decline AUD/USD – 8750-9088 attempts to grow, potential decline USD/CAD – 1.0431-1.0712, attempts to decline, potential growth Brent – 68.88-73.50 consolidation

:missy: EUR – growing potential waning In the first three weeks of the year the single currency lost 1.2% against USD. EUR/USD decline is a consequence of US market weakness, which is a leading indicator of the economic recovery pace. World markets remained pessimistic in the third week of the current year. Asian markets are falling for over ten days, oil and metal prices go down. Company reports of many firms and banks for the fourth quarter of 2009 does not inspire market participants either. Results and Current Situation Technical picture of EUR trading in the last quarter of 2009 showed that market participants were not ready to buy EUR above1.47-1.48 area. As a result, the fourth quarter trend signaled January EUR/USD decline towards 1.4150-1.4250 area. Following the results of the last year we see, that buying of currencies dependant on raw materials export has brought AUD/USD and NZD/USD to the levels, above which growth could not be objectively justified . Last week AUD/USD could not break through the 0.92-0.93 area, which would open way towards 0.95 level, the market sank till 0.90 instead. NZD/USD has not passed 0.72-0.73 area and finished the week below 0.71 near 0.70. In the end of the year GBP/USD had support of GBP buying for EUR, which was reflected in the EUR/GBP trend Nevertheless, last week EUR/GBP could not get hold above 1.62-1.63, this would propel the market toward the 1.65. The market closed at 1.61 USD/CAD has not fallen relative of the1.0300 level, which would signal further way down to 1.0200 and 1.0150. The market has grown above 1.0550 on oil market decline. Still the tendency of major currencies decline had more to do with JPY appreciation, rather than with USD growth. The 1 quarter of the year is a traditional repatriation period of for the JPY. JPY has growth against all currencies in the market. For the week USD/JPY has fallen from 0.91 below 0.90, EUR/JPY sank from 130.50 till 127.00, and GBP/JPY from 147.60 below 145.00. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY also lowered. Expectations, Prognosis In the January 25-29 period currency market will remain pressured through JPY strengthening and doubts concerning EUR growth. Corporate reports will continue to play the role of an expectations factor on the market. In the beginning of the new trading week we can see some potential for EUR/USD recovery, still in second half of the week further decline is most probable. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1.3850-1.4188 potential decline GBP/USD – 1.5888-1.6231 potential decline USD/CHF – 1.0331-1.0688 potential decline USD/JPY – 0.8831-0.9188 potential decline AUD/USD – 0.8831-0.9131 potential decline USD/CAD – 1.0450-1.0731 potential decline Brent – 69.88-73.88, potential decline Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

you are right, but we will fix that so it will be weekly

October 17, 2009. Energy Market Weekly Review On Friday, oil prices reached their maximum level, of the last 12 months, on Friday the price of the barrel of oil rose by $0.95 to the level of $78.53 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, so oil prices over the past eight trading days have increased by 12,9%, thus for the past week by 9,4%. If we consider the fundamental factors carefully, we can see that they show that the energy market instruments are gaining strength. US dollar falls rapidly against the basic currencies basket, investors seek refuge from possible and further decline of the US dollar purchasing power and find it, in particular, in oil. Investors express extremely high optimism due to emerging of macro-economic data. On Friday, the Federal Reserve reported an increase in industrial production in September by 0.7%, the rate exceeded the experts consensus forecast. Industrial production growth has given confidence to traders, because this field of business consumes about 65% of raw materials in the country. The Ministry of Energy has given information on commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products on Thursday, they can be characterized as fairly positive. For the week that ended on October the 9th, commercial crude oil stocks increased by 0.4 million barrels, whereas petrol stocks have decreased by 5.2 million barrels; the Ministry data showed the most significant decrease in petrol stocks over a year. Petroleum processing sector's capacity declined from 85% to 80.9%, due to scheduled maintenance of part of US oil refineries. Perhaps the declining trend in petroleum and distillate will persist for several weeks, which would also support price levels. US Banks oil traders show rather aggressive interest in oil over the last months of this year. In their opinion the price of a barrel could go up to $ 95 by the end of 2009, if the US government, Europe and Asia continue to stimulate national economies. Yet OPEC is not going to increase production volumes of raw materials after significant cuts, that will also support prices. Nearest OPEC cartel meeting is scheduled for December 22 in Angola, it is clear that by this date, we can see a few more bursts of buyers activity. Oil found support level around $ 75 and due to the unusually low temperature in October settled in the north-eastern part of the United States, oil traders expect increased demand for heating oil by US consumers as well as speculators. DTN-Meteorlogix predicts storms coming in the north of the US in the beginning of a new week, that would support the speculators. In the short-term period Brent crude oil will stay below $76.2 with a possible rebound to $72.0 and further to $79.98. Dmitry Stepanov, GK Broco analyst Learn about our new partnership program on our site

The market demonstrated a strong growth of volume over the week closure. Up-trend of the market is seen again On Friday the market canceled transfer to correction and returned to up-trend state; broad indices showed new 10-months' maximum values. S&P 500 and NYSE were leaders of growth and each added 1.9%. Dow index followed them with the growth 1.7% and NASDAQ with 1.6%. The index of the best growth stocks, IBD 100, grew for 1.7% on Friday and 1.2% according to the results of the week. The volume of major indices sharply increased because of mass expiry of options enhanced trading volume. Up-ward trend has renewed its movement. According to our system of analysis, buying of growth stocks is quite acceptable, when they leave correct basis or other key points (for example, after bouncing from 10weeks' average value) Still there are the reasons to be careful. As we told the last week, last bull markets which directly followed large bear markets, resulted in large deep corrections lasting longer than the last current up-ward tendency. S&P 500 still has five distribution days last weeks though Friday took one day away for NYSE. Stocks started their increase at once on Friday's opening in the list of all four major indexes. Positive news about real estate market pushed the share. National Association of real estate agents informed that after market sales of houses moved up for 7.2% in July. It was the fourth growth in succession. News was above estimations which went around 2% growth. Stocks of house-building industry sharply increased and the growth amounted to 5% approximately. While shares with weak fundamental properties such as Toll Bros. (TOL) and KB Home (KBH) each added around 3%; the stocks made it in the volume under average. The best performance was demonstrated by the member of IBD 100 list – Brazil company Gafisa(GFA). It made a beeline in volume for 10%, twice as higher as average. The whole rating of this company is 99 – the best possible rating. Though stocks are far from the point of correct entrance. The market was also supported by speech of Federal Reserve Chairman. According to him, economy's return to growth within the nearest time is quite probable. Oil prices went up to highs of 2009 year. Expectations and forecast Despite an extensive growth and optimism of Friday, general market situation is evaluated in terms of instability and high volatility. A considerable 2days' decline followed by a strong growth – all this often points its vicinity to the market's peak and as a result, to reversal. I still expect a durable deep correction. Next week trace how market behaves as strong news is published – in particular, books of durable goods and consumer trust.

:fight: Stock markets demonstrated the third week of growth in succession, but the growth is getting down Whereas economic news was better than it was expected on Friday, the market did not make profit upon this news. The stocks stayed within the narrow trading range and closed the session in a combined way. NYSE was leading for the second day in succession and added 0.6 %. Dow and S&P 500 slightly changed for 0.2 % and 0.1 % respectively. Nasdaq lost 0.3 %. NYSE volume grew whereas Nasdaq volume lost. A dull trading allowed NASDAQ to avoid a “distribution day”. On Friday IBD 100 declined for 0.1 %. According to the week results, the index of growth stocks with the highest ranking fell down for 0.4 % and was behind the major indexes which grew a little. For the last time upward trend continued on a weak basis because economic data indicated decline but weaker than “it was expected”. Until a certain moment it seemed to be enough. Though on Friday NASDAQ bulls demanded something more significant: what about signs of authentic growth? The answer of economy was languid enough. Decline of GDP in the second quarter was “less than expected”. Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index demonstrated the highest level starting from September but this message was only regarded as warning call given prior to publishing ISM index. On Monday ISM index will be published. According to GDP and government data, consumer expenses declined below the expectations. Market analysts believe that a languid recovering is more probable than an acute recovering of V-type. Among industry groups the stocks of regional auto dealers demonstrated a serious increase on Friday whereas the stocks of gold-mining sector consolidated growth. The stocks of RV (auto company) traditionally used to be early drivers prior to recovering of the economy but a tough pressure of credit and petrol prices conduce to a negative environment. Drew Industries (DW), the manufacturer of RV components, added 24 % in a triple volume on Friday. They also reported about the profit of 12 cents per share against a supposed loss in 6 cents. The sales were also above the forecast. Thor Industries (THO) — the manufacturer of buses and auto parts – added 11 % in the volume above average more than in four times. Both shares have weak EPS ratings but the group can perform as economic barometer and demonstrate signs of recovering. On the bottom side, medical shares were negative leaders among main losers of the day. Several shares of IBD 100 were winning reports back. HMS Holdings (HMSY) declined for 6% notwithstanding its report on Q2 level. Two shares, which reported on late Thursday, declined within Friday session. Vistaprint (VPRT) lost 4 % and Synaptics (SYNA) fell down for 33 %. McAfee (MFE) software manufacturer won the most part of Thursday loss and its growth amounted almost to 5%. Summing up: Friday, 13 of July, was an extremely hard day for the market and analysis – closing of month, week and crucial data for the USA GDP for the second quarter – all this enhanced market uncertainty sharply. It is important that the last 5 months (starting from March 9) – we have a continuous growth of stock market. June correction was not successful because 10% is not the figure. Though the basis is still very weak - but it is still declining. A deep correction is still vital, current rates of purchasing are not attractive.

The review of the US market by July, 10 If the rule is true that the market clams down before reversal starts, then, Friday's behavior of stocks gives us a hope for a growth. :crap: Major indexes closed in a combined way. The volume fell down and was languid for two major exchanges on Thursday. Trading on NASDAQ was even less dynamic than it was during a preholiday session on July 2. Leading growth stocks did not move up or down notably. In general price movement was very slight on the market. On Friday NASDAQ grew for 0.2 %. Dow and S&P 500 each added 0.4 % whereas NYSE declined for 0.7 %. IBD 100 added 0.4 %. According to the results of the first July week, the index of growth stocks fell down for 2.4 % and thus it followed broad indexes. All major indexes stayed lower than its 50-days' average value. S&P 500 and NYSE are still very close to their 200 days' average value. Dow got lower than its 200 days' average value whereas NASDAQ was definitely higher. NASDAQ is still a leader among indexes in 2009 year; its growth amounts to 11 % for the year. Technologies contributed to its leadership position. It is proved by the fact that Philadelphia semiconductor index grew for 22% this year. On Friday the value of technology-containing stocks were pushed by Goldman Sachs' forecast. Reuters reported that David C. Bailey from Goldman Sachs raised the evaluation of the US computer manufacturers' segment by changing “neutral” estimation into “attractive”. In the “note for Client” Bailey emphasized that hardware segment which is depressed now will be No 1 for investments when economy recovers. He raised the estimation of Dell (DELL) and Seagate Technology (STX) from “neutral” to “buy”. Due to the news, Dell (DELL) slowly grew for 0.07 up to 13.22 in a double volume. Seagate added 0.47 up to 10 with the volume grow as of 37%. These two shares have EPS rank lower than 35 which means that the profit of around two of every three shares grow with higher rates. It was a successful day for many lagging members of the market. IBD toolmaker was leading among 197 industry groups. The stocks which are fuel oil price-sensitive - air companies and carriers - were successful as well. Oil prices closed the week below $60, the first time ever for around two months. On Friday Chevron (CVX) warned about its decline in revenue. The last days of the week the market was calm and upward trend is still under pressure. Investors are recommended to be as careful as possible until the situation is clear rather than to guess the future movement of the market. As for now, upward tendency will be renewed or the market will move to correction.

Review of the US stock market by July, 3 When major indexes experience a strong decline, it causes serious concerns about the market prospectives. But when this decline happens in a low volume with slight losses among leading growth stocks, it tells about the possibility of a false alert. Stocks sharply rebounded on Thursday, but the volume was typically low for a session before a long weekend. NYSE index was leading with its 3% decline; S&P 500 sank below for 2.9%; NASDAQ lost 2.7% and Dow – 2.6%. The volume was below NYSE for 25% even after the exchange decided to prolong its trading for 15 minutes. NYSE referred to a poor order execution. NASDAQ volume decreased slightly. On Thursday IBD 100 experienced a decline as of 2.9 %. The week's index of growth stocks lost 2.3% - similarly to week's loss of NASDAQ. The week closed with the 2.2% decline of NYSE index; S&P 500 lost 2.5% and Dow lost 1.9%. Negative news established the background in the beginning of the day before the opening of the market. Labor Department with the reference to payroll journal reported about occupation decline as of 467 000, which strongly exceeds the forecast. This report supposes tough problems with consumer expenditures. Labor report caused movement to protective assets. US dollar consolidated. Gold, which often moves against USD, declined. The value of August gold futures fell for 10,30$, or 1.1 %, up to 931$ per ounce. Simultaneously, oil price went down approximately for 4% within a day. Oil, car manufacturing, mechanic engineering and retails stocks declined the most. Data about work positions created a steadily negative mood, even after a surprisingly strong report of factory contracts. In May factory contracts increased for 1.2% and easily overrun analytics' forecasts. It was the most serious increase in the year and third growth for four months. But the market neglected this news. Though leading growth stocks performed steadily. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) lost 1.61% and got down to 58.45. Other factors reduced a negative effect: the volume was lower than average for 17%; the share stayed above its day's moving average value. One of the share worthing monitoring is probably Chinese American Dairy (ADY). Though on Thursday it decreased for 1.8% in the volume under average, it builds the main profile of a high, outlined flag – pattern which sometimes causes enhanced increase. Potential entrance point is 44.10.

NASDAQ is growing, RUSSEL among other factors, made DOW decline By Friday's closure trading moved up because Russel composition was revised and stocks closed in a combined way against the background of increased volume. NASDAQ closed with 0.5% increase. S&P 500 and NYSE lost 0.1%, Dow fell down for 0.4% having shown the fourth distribution day within recent weeks. IBD 100 added 1.2% having gained due to major indices within the third day in succession. Volume grows, stocks decline due to revise of Russel indices. On the last Friday of June volume grew after it had been declining for the most part of the day. NYSE volume increased for 74% and NASDAQ volume grew for 58%. Indirect proof say that Friday's volume increase was related to Russel re-computation. Widely-known Russell Investments' indexes are recomputed every June. Funds related to Russel were selling or buying stocks in respect of whether they are on the index list. Till the last trading hour the volume of two exchanges was below an average level. Whereas other indexes grew, Dow fell down within 8 among 10 recent sessions. Three shares weight down Dow heavily and they did not relate to Russel. Boeing (BA) fell down for 18% within the last 10 sessions; General Electrics (GE) declined for 13%; and Alcoa (AA) lost 10%. On the last Friday of month the best growth shares grew or sharply went down in a large trading volume – almost equally. American Dairy (ADY) added 2.31 and reached 40.96 in triple volume. Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), which started on Wednesday, lost 1.52 and went down to 24.66 approximately in fivefold volume. Hawkins (HWKN), the company of chemical branch, added 0.80 up to 22.50 in more than 14-times fold volume growth. The share was added to Russel composition. Within the last June days news were combined and did not influence much. Private income rate added 1.4%, above the forecasted rate as of 0.3%. Savings ratio sharply increased from 6.9% and it is the best result from 1993 year. It makes investors concern about economic slowdown. Though the news, which impacted stocks, was ambigious. Retail stocks, which would suffer under such a scenario, grew in general. According to the results of the last week of June, major indexes closed in a combined way, only NASDAQ fixed increase. Nevertheless, IBD 100 grew for 0.7% within the last week of month and gained against a broad market.

Review by June 19 On Friday there was no peculiarly good news, but NASDAQ grew later and was leading on combined market. The index of big technological companies grew for 1.1%, NYSE and S&P 500 added 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Dow lost under 0.2% and scarcely avoided a new distribution day. It closed session under its 200-days' moving average value within the 5th day running. Other major indexes support value over its 200-days' average, thereby having transferred this controversial area from resistance into support. Notwithstanding the volume increase, day results cannot be canceled. The last “quadruple witching” day in March, distribution day was registered. On Friday leaders avoided recession. Whereas a few shares fell down in a strong volume, other met support in a key average volume or built new foundations. There was no leader with a big volume decline. IBD 100 increased for 1.2 %, having decreased its losses down to 1.8 % by the end of the week. Growth shares ranked the best behaved better than S&P 500 with its 1.6% drop down but at the same time much worse then NASDAQ result with the loss as of 1.7%. Chinese stocks continued performing as leaders of growth. Fuqi International (FUQI), jewelry manufacturer, added 1.50% and reached 17.63, more than in triple. Perfect World (PWRD), Bejing developer of on-line games, added 2.50% and reached 29.18 in a huge volume. Other Chinese stocks – such as Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA), AsiaInfo (ASIA) and American Dairy (ADY) – look much better after recent bounces. Despite the week of inactive action on the market, at least one leading growth share reached a new maximum. HMS Holdings (HMSY) was growing within five days in succession – four times in a high volume. On Friday share grew for 0.90 in a heavy volume so to be able to close in 40.06. Among the most active stocks, Microsoft (MSFT) shows a certain activity. The share was growing within 16 among 19 recent sessions and is higher for 59% against its march achievement. On Friday the security added 0.57 after Goldman Sachs included software company in its list of purchases. Its fundamental features are combined though. Its profit increase as of pretax 42% and ROE as of 53% are great but its EPS rating is just 64. It means that one third of all other stocks shows a faster growth of EPS.

According to the results of the week, IBD 100 is behind the broad market On Friday stocks closed in a combined way in a lower volume after a strong recovery from morning losses. While loosing 1.6% within a day, NASDAQ compensated the most part of losses having lost only 0.2%. S&P 500 added 0.1% and Dow - 0.3%. Within the first several hours there was a high volume accompanying strong sales. By the end of the day NASDAQ volume fell down for 17% and NYSE – for 30%. Major indices closed the week with a slight increase. NYSE supported by rapidly growing commodities and demonstrated the best growth – just 1.1%. S&P 500 grew for 0.7 %, Nasdaq – for 0.5 % and Dow – for 0.4%. The market also recorded distribution day – decreasing of the volume growth on Wednesday with a slight decline on Thursday. The volume increased on that day as well. A number of top-ranked growth shares had sales. On June 1 wireless communication provider Neutral Tandem (TNDM) demonstrated a new maximum value after it bounced from 10-weeks' moving average. The last week this share experienced a heavy drop, in particular, on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. Chinese software manufacturer Longtop Financial (LFT) passed 28.84 – its recovery point, but lost 4% on Friday. Though the previous day it strengthened a little. After loosing huge 15% it met support of 50 days' average and won back the most part of its losses. Whereas the most part of major growth shares avoided serious problems, IBD 100 lost 2.1% for the week. According to the results of recent four weeks, index won from the broad market. It was a long-awaited consolidation of growth shares' indices. But growth index was behind broad indices from March 12 to May 8. Under common conditions growth shares must be leading stocks of the market. Though against the background of falling prices – or financial panics – after active sales of shares any subsequent growth is to be caused by the growth of the most underestimated stocks attracting strategic investors. As a rule, real leaders appear later. Let's have a look at Taser International (TASR) manufacturer, one of superstars of the market in 2003 – 2004 years. When bursted technical bubble caused bear market, investors should have been waiting until 2003 March – the start of real bull market. And even then 4 months were required for Taser to take leadership. Let's compare the situation with today's market. 3 months after current confirmed upward tendency begun more leaders appeared. Foundations are forming and stocks start their growth. Some of them face problems but there is no wave of massive falls. This is not the guarantee of future profit yet. You still need to choose a correct moment for entrance, take inevitable losses as granted and trade in harmony with the market state.

Third month of increase: The last trading hour market increased due to the volume growth and closed May US stock market review by May 29 Final increase marked positive mood of investors on Friday. NASDAQ grew for 1.5% in the final trading hour having demonstrated its day growth in fact by this rapid movement. NYSE, S&P 500 added 1.4 % and stocks of industrial Dow - for 1.1 %. The volume of two major exchanges grew and raised the last hour too. Closing short positions and increasing commodities prices served as the main reasons of growth. But on the whole closing of the week was optimistic especially if to take into account moderate trading within the week. On Wednesday NASDAQ had higher volume of sales, its 5th distribution day within the last weeks. Still the index replied by growth within two next sessions, both in increased volume. The week growth of NASDAQ is 4.9 %, its best week value from the beginning of April. NYSE moved for 3.7 %, S&P 500 +3.6 %, +2.7 % Dow. At the same time major indices closed the third month of growth in succession. Week growth of NYSE was rather high, therefore distribution day - May 13 – may be excluded from calculating. Despite a strong growth of broad market, growth stock did not demonstrate notable results on Friday. A number of growth stock reached a higher volume. In many cases they just continued forming consolidation figures. On Friday IBD 100 added 1.2 %. Starent Networks (STAR) achieved maximum value for 17 months. Manufacturer of wire-free appliances grows after it was corrected up to 10 week's moving average value. Some growth stocks continued correction. Quality Systems (QSII) went below 50 days' moving average value Stocks four-time lost 5 % after quarter report which demonstrated that sales disappointed investors. Stocks of public health sector were among the weakest on Friday. Stocks of transport companies were leaders of the day. Baltic Dry Index, indicator of commodities delivering cost – and indicator of industrial activity at the same time – achieved its maximum October point. Chinese demand for ironstone exceeded parlays. The market was tuned in increase when the government revised GDP value of the first quarter for a rise. But the report about industrial activity of Middle West was not encouraging. The market faces several negative factors including accruing sale of government obligations, rising oil prices and concerns about growing inflation in the future. In fact, weakness of stock environment was to a significant extent a response to a leap of yield of government notes. On Friday yield of 10 years Treasuries fell down for 17 points thereby erasing week's growth. USA dollar demonstrated a strong decline perhaps due to a reason that investors are looking for safer assets.

After all, 9 weeks' growth of NASDAQ interrupted Review of the US market by May 16 On Friday the market finished a volatile week with moderate losses. NYSE fell for 1.2%, S&P 500 lost 1.1 %, Dow declined for 0.8 %, and Nasdaq – for 0.5 %. The volume of major exchanges fell down. Taking into account that Friday was expiration day for options, this decline was strange. On the other hand, it is better when the market drops torpidly. Energetic and financial sectors dominated among losers of the day. From May 8 to 15 NASDAQ lost 3.4% and stopped its 9 week's of continuous increase. The same week took 5% from S&P 500, 5.6% from NYSE Composite and 3.6% - from Dow industrial index . NASDAQ and NYSE faced resistance in its 200 days' moving averages. Besides, all indices closed near minimum points of their week's discretion. Though trading volume was lower than the volume of preceding week due to the expectation of normal correction. Leading growth stocks were under pressure but managed to take over the market on Friday. IBD 100 index increased up to 0.1%, index fell for 3.5% within a week – on the level of leading indices or better. IBD index of economic optimism of the best growth stock was behind of the market within the most part of current upward trend. A number of leading stocks demonstrated growing dynamics. Red Hat (RHT), developing company of open source operating systems, added 1.74 up to 19.86 due to rumors about its selling to IBM company. Its stocks passed key exit point of 19.26. But profit of the company in the last quarter increased for 10%, and analysts forecast EPS (earnings per share) decrease within the future four quarters. After such a long growth certain market consolidation could be expected. Now, when upward trend of the market is under pressure, one should think carefully before purchasing of any share and ready to fix profit in some cases. On preceding “main day” of the market indices heavily bounced in the beginning but took a long pause before a new growth started. At that time a lot of new attractive growth stocks. Counting market distribution days does not cause concerns. April 14 and 22 distribution days are removed from counting. Since the market grew a lot, these days are not in the focus of attention anymore. Besides, in the view of low market volatility it is sensible to take into account smaller changes of indices on the event of removing distribution day from accountancy. What are the leading groups according to the results of the week? In fact protective papers played this role and included stocks of commercial education and provision related branches. Tobacco as classical protective branch was the fifth strong group of the week.

The week closed with a slight increase, IBD 100 оutrode the market Review of the US market by May 4 On Friday the week closed with a moderate increase, low-volume stocks slightly grew. On Friday NYSE was leading and marked 1% of increase which happened due to the rise of oil and gas stocks. Dow and S&P 500 added 0.5 %; Nasdaq closed almost without changes - 0.1 %. NYSE volume decreased for 25 % and Nasdaq - for 23 %. The US market had a few of incentives for movement because the most part of major international exchanges were closed for 1 May holiday. The growth of University of Michigan consumer confidence index and a number of stabilization signs in industry served as new indications for market proving that the economy started consolidating. The same factors seem to influence rise of oil prices which grew for 2.08$ up to 53.20$ per barrel. This 5-week’s peak point in oil prices caused growing of power-generating sector. Oil-related sectors were among leaders of the day. But essentially there is no one shares pretending to be the market leader. Many of them are just recovering after huge losses of recent months. In general, leaders achieved good results. Chinese company Longtop Financial (LFT), software engineer for business purposes, added 2.54 and reached 26.20. The share broke through the key level 26.09 which is the entry point after bounce from 10 week’s moving average. VistaPrint (VPRT), online supplier of services and products, grew for 2.91 up to 37.26 in large volumes. The company reported on late Thursday and its forecast for year left analysts’ expectations behind. Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) increased sharply for 1.21 up to 17.11, also in active trading, broke through 15.15 level – purchase point. But the member of IBD 100, Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), fell for 2.22 down to 36.82. This is their third decrease in succession in large volume. The upward market trend is still safe. Nasdaq registered its 8th rising week in succession though for modest 1.5 %. Other major market indices demonstrated the dynamics similar to its behavior within 7 recent weeks. The last week Nasdaq became the first market index among growing indices which broke 200-days’ moving average. Two months of rapid growth can give a respite to May. IBD 100, the index of the best market shares, increased for 2.8 % within the week. It is a positive consolidation after the period of underrun from other indices. As a rule the best shares of rise won in bull rally. Though anomalous rally has its historical precedents. Our research of post-crisis bull rally of 1932, 1938, 1975 and 2002 year show that the best leaders in these rallies appeared after the general market growth had begun. My opinion remains the same: the market growth within the last two months significantly lost contact with actual economy which is still down. Before the growth continues at least one week of decline is required.