Office rat

:pc guru: Buy USD before it goes up Last March trading week did not uncover any surprises. Optimistic forecasts for the US economy proved false. Economic growth ratio for the forth quarter was reviewed down. Preliminary data showed DGP growth of 5.9%, the reviewed reading was cut to 5.6% annual rate. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped 0.6% against February. Financial crisis in Greece will be resolved with IMF involvement, but this does not solve general problems of the EU as a whole. European and American stock indexes growth does not inspire much confidence among professional market participants, neither do current energy prices. By the end of the first fiscal half year and first quarter of 2010 there are just as many problems as before, and hopes for the near end of crisis remain hopes. Results and Current Situation USD buying volume has grown during the past week and EUR buying has lessened noticeably. Commodity currencies however remained at high levels, which does not guarantee steady growth of commodities and stock markets. For the past week EUR gained 0.8% against the six currencies' basket. USD appreciation against the portfolio comprised 5.7% for the week, still this figure does not point at serious increase in USD buying volume. Japan's Central Bank will release its annual report on March 31st. Professional market participants will not be taking any trading decisions before the report is out. CAD, AUD, and NOK. For the past week currencies dependant on raw materials export - CAD and AUD - declined against the US dollar. AUD/USD has gone two figures down and closed at 0.9035; USD/CAD went one figure up, to the level 1.0265. USD/NOK closed above an important 6.00 level at 6.03. Commodities currencies' decline signals unstable conditions for oil, gold and copper markets. EUR EUR/USD settled 120 points lower at 1.3405. 1.35 range remains intact and attempts to trade EUR/USD around 1.3250-1.3350 did not last. Prices stayed only one day in the $3250-3350 area. GBP GBP/USD could not break out of strategic 1.50 area either, the pair declined to 1.49 from 1.5012. The week's trade finished at 1.4900. JPY USD/JPY has grown. Still it closed at 92.50, which gives equal chances for growth towards 95 as well as for decline to 90. The last trading week before BoJ report of the financial year results was marked by considerably weaker trading volumes on major currency pairs on the interbank market. Expectations, Prognosis The starting week will conclude trading cycles of March, the first quarter and the fiscal half year. Conversion operations and liquidity of major currency pairs is expected to increase on the interbank market, this can result in higher volatility. There will not be a definite trading direction this week, whereas short-term speculation risks increase considerably. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market GBP/USD – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market USD/CHF – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market USD/JPY – 92.12-93.31, consolidation, out of the market AUD/USD – 0.8969-0.9069, consolidation, out of the market USD/CAD – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market USD/JPY – 79.12-80.31, consolidation, out of the market

Buy USD before it gets expensive Bank analysts are telling a bare faced lie about their intention to buy USD Quite to the contrary. Banks are buying EUR as long as it has a potential for further decline. Banks are suggesting that the whole market should break the laws of trading logics and buy the appreciating dollar. That is exactly why l banks have started to revise down their forecasts for EUR/USD in the end of the previous week. For example, in the end of the week considerations appeared on the market, that Fed may raise its discount rate and Peoples Bank of China may further tighten reservation conditions. Anticipation of such steps by the Fed and the PBC is enough for USD to grow and for EUR to weaken. Banks being the only professional market participants will chose the most profitable middle term instrument. What will the banks choose? EUR of course, and they will sell appreciating dollar to us and to the rest of the market. The market is ready to obey the rules of this game. Results and Current Situation The major indicator of the last week was the preparation for the fiscal half year end, as well as the end of the first 2010 quarter. By the end of the week banks were reassured that the financial crises is coming to its end and Fed is ready to start withdrawing cheap dollar from circulation. The period of dollar accumulation, spurred by anti-crisis measures, which started in the 2nd. quarter of 2009 is over soon. The time of commodity currencies buying for a high and obviously not particularly favorable price is also finishing. We are at the onset of the actual end-phase of the world financial crisis. CAD, AUD, and NOK. CAD и AUD growth has slowed down considerably for the past week, whereas NOC lost 0.14% against USD. Still, commodity currencies continued to grow against EUR. AUD/USD closed at 0. 9151 on Friday, March 19th. and the week before, March 12th. - at 0.9155 USD/CAD closed at 1.0162, and the week before at 1.0179; USD/NOK grew from 5.83 to 5.90. EUR EUR/USD trade finished at 1.3530. For the week EUR lost 0,2% against USD. GBP British pound finished 1.1% lower. The trade closed at 1.5015 Friday. JPY USD/JPY did not change noticeably, staying within 90.12- 90.69 area. Trade finished at 90.51 Friday. For the past week conversion operations on the market and the major currencies liquidity have diminished. Expectations, Prognosis For the starting week the number of customer orders to buy USD prevails on the market. Most probably more CAD и AUD longs will be closed. Trading volume is likely to lessen, which can cause contradictory movements within 50-100 points range. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3412-1,3588, consolidation GBP/USD – 1,4931-1,5088, consolidation USD/CHF – 1,0569-1,0669, consolidation USD/JPY – 90,12-90,88, consolidation AUD/USD – 9088-9188, consolidation, decline USD/CAD –1,0131-1,0269, consolidation, possible growth Brent – 80,31-78,69, possible decline

Preliminary Half-Year Results don't Inspire Much Confidence in Euro Preliminary half-year results look sad for Euro. For the incomplete period of 6 months EUR has already lost 5.6% against USD. Although USD cannot boast great achievements either. It has lost 6.4% against AUD and 5.6% against CAD. Whereas EUR lost even more against CAD, and AUD. Since the start of trade in October 2009 EUR lost 11.4%, against CAD and 11.2% against AUD. Financial problems in Europe still deserve some attention, but investors' concerns have largely waned. US economy needs to keep interest rates low, and in the near future there is no reason to expect a hike. Although commodity currencies dominate the market, that is the end of financial year in Japan (March 31) that becomes the most influential factor. In the end of the past week analysts have finally thought of possible interventions, that Bank of Japan can conduct to stop JPY appreciation. There were talks, that Japan's Central Bank can lower the interest rate. The BoJ meeting will take place March 16-17. Results and Current Situation EUR EUR/USD growth on Thursday and Friday reflected increased USD buying and weaker buying interest in EUR. As a result, the weekly EUR/USD trading cycle finished below 1.3769 Friday and therefore the 37-th market pattern remained untouched. The trading range formed during the past 5 weeks in the 1.35-1.37 area is still in place. GBP. The GBP downward movement continued, it has lost 4.4% from the start of the fiscal half-year. Trade finished at 1.52 Friday. Thus, GBP/USD heading towards 1.48-1.4850 does not raise doubts. JPY. USD/JPY stays near 90.0 area. On Friday USD/JPY closed at 90.50, and from the start of the fiscal half-year dollar appreciation comprised 70 points. The pair stands still awaiting the BoJ report of the annual financial results. CAD and AUD. CAD and AUD appreciation remain the major factor in the market. Strengthening of Canadian and Australian currencies displays, that objective commodities assets growth and economic recovery as a whole are yet to come. USD/CAD settled at 1.0189 Friday, March 12 and AUD/USD closed at 0.9150. The market is dominated by technical indicators of exchange rates' moves for the 5 months period. Expectations, Prognosis During the starting week's trade USD buying is likely to increase. CAD and AUD appreciation trend will also remain valid. Some short-term changes in the market are likely to appear by Wednesday, March 17th, when Bank of Japan’s meeting closes, in case USD/JPY get hold in the 91.31-91.69 area, which is very likely. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3531-1,3812, consolidation, possible decline GBP/USD – 1,4931-1,5269, consolidation USD/CHF –1,0512-1,0769, consolidation, possible growth USD/JPY – 90,12-91,31, consolidation, growth AUD/USD – 0,9012-0,9212 consolidation, decline USD/CAD –1,0512-1,0769, consolidation, possible growth Brent – 80,69-78,12 consolidation, possible decline Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

Currency Market Review 3/8/10 - 3/12/10. Currency Market Review 3/8/10 - 3/12/10. Flight into the Commodity Currencies Continues. Regardless of US and EU macroeconomic statistics’ interpretation, buying of commodity currencies remains the major trading factor. Market participants are not sure, that the current high prices of raw materials and equities have a solid ground, this uncertainty is enhances by doubts concerning further changes in USD value. UE financial perils as well as hesitant economic recovery in the US slow down USD and EUR buying activity. Uncertainty about currency and raw materials market prospects, conversely, boosts AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD buying. Results and Current Situation Expectations for increased USD buying on positive economic data failed, by the end of the week EUR and USD value against the 8 currencies basket went down. For the past week, AUD has gained 1.3% against USD and 0.3% against EUR. AUD/USD settled at 0.9075. CAD also appreciated against EUR and USD. CAD added 2.09% against both USD and EUR. NZD and NOK strengthened against USD and EUR as well. EUR, USD have only managed to grow against JPY and GBP. By the end of the week GBP/USD has declined to 1.5130, USD gained 0.8%. EUR/GBP settled at 1.8990, which reflected 0.7% EUR appreciation. EUR and USD showed equal growth against JPY. On Friday USD/JPY exchange rates closed at 90.30, which makes up 1% dollar appreciation for the week. EUR gained 1.65% against JPY. EUR/JPY cross rate pair has grown from 121.0 to 123.00. Thus, by the end of the week currency market has come to the impasse choosing a further direction for the second 2010 quarter. Expectations, Prognosis All told, market participant mood is likely to shift towards increased USD buying during the current week. USD is used for international commodity trade, it cannot be substituted by a different currency, and therefore USD buying is predestined. EUR trading above 1.35 also speaks in favor of USD growth, as it makes it more profitable to open dollar longs from this important level. Still this week’s trade can go on without a clear direction within narrow ranges. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3531-1,3669, consolidation GBP/USD – 1,4931-1,5269, consolidation USD/CHF – 1,0669-1,0769, consolidation USD/JPY – 0,8969-0,9131, consolidation, growth AUD/USD – 0,9012-0,9131 consolidation USD/CAD – 1,0231-1,0343, consolidation Brent – 80,69-78,12 consolidation, possible decline

Time has come for EUR longs profit taking Financial crisis’ aftermath as well as credit problems of Greece, Portugal and Spain retain their negative influence over EUR to certain extent. This background doesn't let analysts and regular currency market participants to cast off their worries concerning further decline of EUR in the near future. Stock market and raw materials market bubbles are the major threat. Results and Current Situation Last week's results have not changed the tendency for EUR depreciation and by the time of session closing Friday February 19th. EUR/USD reached 1,3609. From year start EUR has lost 5,09% against USD. The major indicator of USD growth last week was USD/JJPY surpassing 0,9150. By the end of the week's trade USD/JPY advanced from 0,8935 and closed at 0,9160. USD gained 2,57% against JPY for the period. USD strengthening in its added to further GBP decline, GBP/USD closed at 1,5470. From year start GBP has lost 6,06% against USD. Depreciation of EUR, GBP and JPY served as a catalyst for AUD, NZD and CAD growth, all three currencies are dependant on raw materials export. For the week AUD/USD has grown up to 0,8987 and USD/CAD closed at 1, 0391. That is the high levels of "raw materials currencies’" trade, that raises fear for bubbles on the raw materials market. From the start of the year CAD has grown 0,47%, which entailed oil getting more expensive. March North Sea blend Brent crude oil has finished the week at the level, where the year's trade began - 78,45. Expectations, Prognosis For the last February week chances are high for USD buying volumes to grow against EUR, GBP and JPY. One of the factors working for USD strengthening is the start of profit taking cycle on EUR long positions; another one is USD buying volume increase. We can also expect profit taking on raw materials market, oil decline and AUD, NZD and CAD downward correction. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3350-1,3669, decline GBP/USD – 1,3350-1,3669, decline USD/CHF – 1,0688-1,0988, growth USD/JPY – 0,9112-0,9288, growth AUD/USD – 0,9031-0,8788, consolidation with decline USD/CAD – 1,0369-1,0588, consolidation, growth Brent – 79,31-75,12, decline

4-months of the fiscal half year EUR trend points at 1.33 General background of the second February week was not in favour of the Single European currency. Negative tone was aggravated by weak EU macroeconomic staticstics and Greece's financial problems. Still the most important factor was the decion of China's central bank to raise the reserve ratio for Chinese banks by 50 basis points, which was announced on Friday. Results and Current Situation The ending of the second February week was in fact the result of the four months of fiscal half year period as well as the first half of the first 2010 quarter. Since the beginning of the fiscal half year period in October EUR has lost 6,45% against USD by session closing on Friday. 4-month EUR/USD decline comprised 9 figures or 950 points. EUR has lost considerably against currencies dependant of raw materials exports such as AUD and CAD (9% and 9.2%). Technically EUR/USD is moving in a well formed downward trend towards the area of 1.33-1.3350, which can be reached by the end of the 1st quarter of 2010 . As results of the last week's trade show, EUR is held back from sinking below 1.35 only by 1.3650 area (1.3612-1.3688). In the meanwhile the week's trade of USD against JPY goes around 0.90 without a clear deriction. This fact shows that it is EUR depreciation that plays the key role in the market and not USD growth. EUR/GBP cross rate decline below 0.8750 helped GBP/USD stay above 1.5650. GBP exchange rates have settled in the comfortable area between the 1.55 and 1.60 levels within a range of 1.57-1.58. This proves once again that the value of EUR is deminishing. The idea, that the USD is ready to grow, but not yet growing is proved by the fact that AUD/USD climbed from 0.8650 to 0.8870 by the end of trade Friday. Persistant relative USD weakness is also sertified by the fact that by the week's end USD/CAD has declined from 1.07 to 1.05 levels. Expectations, Prognosis Within the period from 15 to 19 February curreny market trends will be dominated by Japanese currency purchases for EUR, GBP and raw materials currencies and general EUR weakness. Federal Reserve rate increase has not become an active factor so far, although it was mentioned in the report by thу FRS President Ben Bernanke. Market participants will be assessing oil market in the range of 71,50-73,50 (Brent oil) and the possibility of prices breaking outside of this range. Apart from that traders will be watching Dow Jones Index dynamics around 10000, within the range of 9850-10150. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1.3350-1.3769, decline GBP/USD – 1.3350-1.3769, decline USD/CHF – 1.0669-1.0931, growth USD/JPY – 0.8931-0.9096, consilidation AUD/USD – 0.8712-0.8931, consilidation with potential decline USD/CAD – 1.0431-1.0688, consilidation with potential growth Brent – 71. 50-73.88, consilidation, potential decline

Yes, I disagree cause these weeks we resemled the work. Sure, this interruption was and other traders are clever enough to note that.

I wish you were as successful in your trading as in monitoring what other people say on forums.

Thank you, guy, for you care, But I think we will manage.

Does it make you frustrate? :crap:

Currency Market Review 2/06/10 - 2/12/10 EUR below 2008 closing The first February week ended with considerable EUR lowering and USD growth. Banks' buying USD against EUR, AUD and NZD in the end of the week was spurred by 5% decline of indexes on Lisbon and Madrid exchanges. Continuing concerns over swelling budget deficits and sovereign debts of EU member countries bolsters banks' appetite for USD. Currency market participants don't take EUR for a serious alternative to USD. Markititraxx Europe Index climbing to the 9-week maximum has further propelled USD against EUR. Michal Gomez, a senior vice president at Pimco (Pacific Investment Management Co) one of the largest investment companies in the world, advices to keep away from EUR, Euro zone and some of the developing European countries’ currencies. Results and Current Situation During February 1- 5 trading week EUR has lost 1.44% against USD. EUR/USD slid two figures lower from 1.3850 level to 1.3650 by session closing Friday. Increased USD buying resulted in lowering of the currencies dependant on raw materials export, AUD and NZD. They have lost 100 points. At the same time CAD remained relatively strong against USD. USD/CAD growth for the week comprised 10 points. CAD received support form the oil market, which managed to stay above the $70 level. GBP turned out to be the biggest looser last week. By trade closing on February 5th GBP has lost 2.15%, which was reflected in GBP/USD decline of 345 points, from 1.5975 to 1.5630. The major factor of last week's trade was a tendency of decline not only against USD but also against JPY. Growing interest in buying USD against other currencies could not hinder JPY appreciation. By the end of the week JPY added 0.034% against USD. USD/JPY has gone from 0.9025 down to 0.8935. The general JPY growth against other currencies in the market surpassed USD growth. This factor is a strong signal of further weakening of EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD. Expectations, Prognosis In the February 8-12 period currency market will remain pressured by increased buying of Japanese and American currencies . Possible attempts of EUR, GBP and other currencies buying in the first half of the week will be countered with large JPY purchases by cross rates. JPY buying will intensify EUR decline and USD growth. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1,3350-1,3769, decline GBP/USD – 1,3350-1,3769, decline USD/CHF – 1,0669-1,0888, growth USD/JPY – 0,8831-0,8969, declining consolidation AUD/USD – 0,8331-0,8769, decline USD/CAD – 1,0631-1,0869 growing consolidation Brent – 68,88-71,50 consolidation, range Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

EUR below 2008 closing level In January currency market was focused on financial problems of European countries and their budget deficits on the first place. Late last week we have learnt that Standard & Poor's does not count British banks among the most low risks banking systems / Weakness of major American stock indexes and oil prices below $75 a barrel boosted USD growth by the end of the third week of January . US fourth quarter GDP data also contributed to dollar's advance. GDP has growth 5,7% against the third quarter of 2009 year on year, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce reported. This numbers turned out much better, than analysts expected. Results and Current Situation In 2009 the major trend was appreciation of currencies dependant of raw materials export (AUD and NZD) and USD decline. This tendency has created a misleading picture of EUR strength. In fact AUD and NZD were also often bought for EUR. Absence of objective basis for EUR/USD growth in November resulted in market going below 1.50. Technical trend of the last quarter of 2009 - lowering from 1.4350 - sent EUR/USD towards the 2008 closing - 1.40. It was only owing to EUR/GBP cross rate trade against EUR, that GBP/USD held near the 1.6150 -1.6350 area in January . EUR/GBP decline dynamics did not reflect the USD growth, but was a EUR depreciation factor, this allowed GBP/USD to stay at 1.60 by the end of January trade. Currencies dependant on raw materials export - AUD and NZD - declined from key levels. AUD closed below 0.90 at 0. 8835, аnd NZD finished the month at 0.70. Closing above 0.88 and 0.70 came as a result of EUR/AUD EUR/NZD cross rate lowering and gold sinking below 1100 an ounce. USD/CAD grew to 1.0705 on oil decline. January EUR/USD closing shows, that for the period from the beginning of 2009 USD added 0,78%, from 1.3960 to 1.3850. USD appreciation is not yet big enough for EUR/USD to fall substantially in the first February week. Expectations, Prognosis In the February 1-5 period currency market will have a hard time choosing further direction. Market participant might wish to take profit on some long USD positions in the beginning of the month. Fourth quarter financial statements of banks and companies will become a major factor influencing trading decisions. Traders will pay special attention to JPY movements. In January USD/JPY kept moving downward and closed in 0.90 filter between 0.9012 and 0.9031. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1.3788-1.4095, attempts to grow, potential decline GBP/USD – 1.3788-1.4095, attempts to grow, potential decline USD/CHF – 1.0431-1.0712, attempts to decline, potential growth USD/JPY – 0.8731-0.9188 attempts to grow, potential decline AUD/USD – 8750-9088 attempts to grow, potential decline USD/CAD – 1.0431-1.0712, attempts to decline, potential growth Brent – 68.88-73.50 consolidation

:missy: EUR – growing potential waning In the first three weeks of the year the single currency lost 1.2% against USD. EUR/USD decline is a consequence of US market weakness, which is a leading indicator of the economic recovery pace. World markets remained pessimistic in the third week of the current year. Asian markets are falling for over ten days, oil and metal prices go down. Company reports of many firms and banks for the fourth quarter of 2009 does not inspire market participants either. Results and Current Situation Technical picture of EUR trading in the last quarter of 2009 showed that market participants were not ready to buy EUR above1.47-1.48 area. As a result, the fourth quarter trend signaled January EUR/USD decline towards 1.4150-1.4250 area. Following the results of the last year we see, that buying of currencies dependant on raw materials export has brought AUD/USD and NZD/USD to the levels, above which growth could not be objectively justified . Last week AUD/USD could not break through the 0.92-0.93 area, which would open way towards 0.95 level, the market sank till 0.90 instead. NZD/USD has not passed 0.72-0.73 area and finished the week below 0.71 near 0.70. In the end of the year GBP/USD had support of GBP buying for EUR, which was reflected in the EUR/GBP trend Nevertheless, last week EUR/GBP could not get hold above 1.62-1.63, this would propel the market toward the 1.65. The market closed at 1.61 USD/CAD has not fallen relative of the1.0300 level, which would signal further way down to 1.0200 and 1.0150. The market has grown above 1.0550 on oil market decline. Still the tendency of major currencies decline had more to do with JPY appreciation, rather than with USD growth. The 1 quarter of the year is a traditional repatriation period of for the JPY. JPY has growth against all currencies in the market. For the week USD/JPY has fallen from 0.91 below 0.90, EUR/JPY sank from 130.50 till 127.00, and GBP/JPY from 147.60 below 145.00. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY also lowered. Expectations, Prognosis In the January 25-29 period currency market will remain pressured through JPY strengthening and doubts concerning EUR growth. Corporate reports will continue to play the role of an expectations factor on the market. In the beginning of the new trading week we can see some potential for EUR/USD recovery, still in second half of the week further decline is most probable. Major currency pairs range: EUR/USD – 1.3850-1.4188 potential decline GBP/USD – 1.5888-1.6231 potential decline USD/CHF – 1.0331-1.0688 potential decline USD/JPY – 0.8831-0.9188 potential decline AUD/USD – 0.8831-0.9131 potential decline USD/CAD – 1.0450-1.0731 potential decline Brent – 69.88-73.88, potential decline Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

you are right, but we will fix that so it will be weekly

October 17, 2009. Energy Market Weekly Review On Friday, oil prices reached their maximum level, of the last 12 months, on Friday the price of the barrel of oil rose by $0.95 to the level of $78.53 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, so oil prices over the past eight trading days have increased by 12,9%, thus for the past week by 9,4%. If we consider the fundamental factors carefully, we can see that they show that the energy market instruments are gaining strength. US dollar falls rapidly against the basic currencies basket, investors seek refuge from possible and further decline of the US dollar purchasing power and find it, in particular, in oil. Investors express extremely high optimism due to emerging of macro-economic data. On Friday, the Federal Reserve reported an increase in industrial production in September by 0.7%, the rate exceeded the experts consensus forecast. Industrial production growth has given confidence to traders, because this field of business consumes about 65% of raw materials in the country. The Ministry of Energy has given information on commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products on Thursday, they can be characterized as fairly positive. For the week that ended on October the 9th, commercial crude oil stocks increased by 0.4 million barrels, whereas petrol stocks have decreased by 5.2 million barrels; the Ministry data showed the most significant decrease in petrol stocks over a year. Petroleum processing sector's capacity declined from 85% to 80.9%, due to scheduled maintenance of part of US oil refineries. Perhaps the declining trend in petroleum and distillate will persist for several weeks, which would also support price levels. US Banks oil traders show rather aggressive interest in oil over the last months of this year. In their opinion the price of a barrel could go up to $ 95 by the end of 2009, if the US government, Europe and Asia continue to stimulate national economies. Yet OPEC is not going to increase production volumes of raw materials after significant cuts, that will also support prices. Nearest OPEC cartel meeting is scheduled for December 22 in Angola, it is clear that by this date, we can see a few more bursts of buyers activity. Oil found support level around $ 75 and due to the unusually low temperature in October settled in the north-eastern part of the United States, oil traders expect increased demand for heating oil by US consumers as well as speculators. DTN-Meteorlogix predicts storms coming in the north of the US in the beginning of a new week, that would support the speculators. In the short-term period Brent crude oil will stay below $76.2 with a possible rebound to $72.0 and further to $79.98. Dmitry Stepanov, GK Broco analyst Learn about our new partnership program on our site