cowpip

Sorry Wasp. I sure hope this isn't a fake on the upside. The new trend is definitely forming now. If it can hold the next 10 minutes... Stop is back down now below the lows.

I'm not trading this right... you have the trend still. My stop is at b/e. I'll concede if my stop is hit.

Long GJ @ 190.91...

Out for -60.

Ha! So much for a correlation. Looks like I'll be biting the dust on this one.

In all fairness, I should say that in reality, we are quite different as people. But economically, we're just a short step away from the mirror of the US.

Canada does, Yes. It's called the TSX. But it's almost a mirror of the US, I think. I don't follow it much and know very little about it. We mirror the US so much, I don't think we can tell who is who anymore. We're even having an election one month before the US (Oct 14th). It's ridiculous.

Don't even think that!!! That's not a nice thought. :\ But yeah, it's entirely possible. I think a rally is on the wind. Just need the stock market to open now and see its response. If they like it, GJ will probably rally. If they don't, well... I may see a loss. I don't quite understand why the US stock market is somewhat correlated to GJ, but it is - at least marginally.

Long GJ @ 191.39

Closed for +219. Holding flat for now. I closed without a clear technical reason (just wanted to - gut feeling). I know that is not the wisest, but I don't care. Thanks pipmonster! That TL break and 240 min SR played out beautifully!!

Short GJ @ 194.85

Righto... bang on, Wasp - on all counts.

I'm carrying this response over here from the Live trade thread... I'm learning, Wasp! I'm putting on my fundamental hat for a moment here folks. Yes, the US government have bailed out fannie and freddie. BUT, a good number of banks (I don't know how many - but undoubtably there are quite a few, as the FDIC had to issue a statement to help "guide" them) have some good chunks of cash in those companies and are liable to lose it over the next week. The FDIC wouldn't have issued their brief statement about regional banks needing to consult with their larger brethren to help resolve capital requirements issues (if fan/fred lose their share value). No one is going to want to invest in these companies when the government plans on SCALING BACK business activities during the next 18 months, or when their dividends are getting discontinued. Also, who is going to want to invest in a company when the share holders will have no say in the governance of the company? If anyone does buy shares, they'll be very very brief purchases. Once the world realizes there is no VALUE in holding shares, their shares will probably vanish. And as share prices drop in value, the losses of the banks holding those shares will increase. But I honestly don't know if any wise banks would wait that long. They may dump them on Monday and preserve whatever value is left in their shares. Someone this weekend said, "Once the government bailouts fail to produce a meaningful rally in the stock markets, that's when you'll see a crash." We may be closer to that moment now. At any rate, this gap higher could easily be a trap. I'm holding fire at least until that first 4-hour candle finishes forming. Who knows what shape it will take? Fundamentals aside, all we really need to worry about is what price is doing NOW. Everything else is secondary. Yes, that was a pretty amazing gap higher. It may get filled later. It may not. I don't really care, as long as price tells me which way it's going to move and I'm in on it.

One more question before you hit the pubs... what size of stops were you using on this last play? Same as usual, or slightly larger?

Alright Wasp... what caused you to take the long at that particular location, rather than at the base of the other three trend-lines you had drawn? I had a horrible night. Two more losses (rather big ones too). The 4-hour candles just weren't talking nice. It's way too whippy. My stop's, as large as they were, still were not large enough to get out of the way of the whips. So, I ended up (don't laugh - too hard) a whopping +5 pips for the entire week. Dude, that really REALLY sucks when I was up 300 mid-week. These last two days shot me dead. BTW, Why did you take the entry you took, and not one of the other trend-line breaks? Somehow, you managed to pick the right one. Congrats on your 700 pip week. That's one duzy of a good job! I can't tell you how badly I want to replicate your performance. I KNOW I can. But I'm still screwing something up somewhere. EDIT: I still obviously have more study-time ahead of me this weekend.

That's funny... I've been doing this for several years now and honestly - to me anyway - this is the hardest bloody "job" I have ever had. It's also the most psychologically demanding "job" I've ever had. If it wasn't for the rewards, I would definitely choose to be doing something else. I think a lot of people think trading is easy. Well - it can be. And once you have your strat(s) nailed down, it can become that way. But I'll bet if you ask Wasp if the last 3 weeks has been easy, he'd probably say not. He's put a lot of hours into researching why things haven't been working as well as he'd like and how he can make things work reliably. It's hard work a lot of the time, I think. But I know what you're driving at, brownsfan... it's a totally different thing to be sitting in your own home (or on a trading desk) making cash grow from a computer screen than it is to be working elsewhere out on the street. Completely different. And the freedom is irreplaceable.

Wasp, I much appreciate that! Thanks. I'm digging through your other trend-charts to try and understand your methodology. It's starting to make a great deal of sense to me now. Two quick questions: Is that an hourly frame chart (that's what you usually use for the trend-lines, is it not? - ok, that's three questions)? And what do the "+++"'s mean? I've never seen those before, that I can recall, on your annotated charts. Thanks again. This is one cool set of strats you have.

I'd just like to emphasize to everyone watching my learning curve here about something... If I would have stuck strictly to the 4-hour plan (and disregard even trend-lines), I would have nabbed most of this 400 pip day. What I did today was a cardinal sin, yet I often find myself repeatedly violating it. I got lazy and decided I was smarter than the market. I AM NOT SMARTER THAN THE MARKET. No one is. What I needed to do was wait for price to test, reject and close above one of the S/R lines before taking my long. But I decided in my very small mind that price would be rejected at 190 - partly because of the size of the bounce that we saw the first time it visited there. You can't assume anything!!! You have to wait for the market to tell you the truth. If you do anything earlier, you've dulled your edge to the point that you couldn't cut through a cake with it and you've unduly increased your risk. My losses today were entirely deserved! Break the rules, pay the price. It's as simple as that. Don't break the rules, people. And if you don't have any, FIND SOME quick! Write them down, memorize them, dream about them, rehearse them to yourself in the mirror, or whatever it takes to prevent yourself from breaking them. It's easier said than done when you're sitting at the computer watching price action. But if you don't heed it, you pay it.

Cool. Thanks.

I was on-target for a similar total, till IDIOCY took over. I'm now only +119 for the entire week. Ah well... it could be worse. Last week was far worse. I'm getting tired of trying to find these new S/R lines. Have to go way back now. Wasp, am I right in positioning the next S/R line near 188.95?

Because I'm an ass, Wasp! A total complete ass! I broke the rule, didn't wait for confirmation, went on a hunch that the thing would behave at the support line and have now paid the piper for that foolishness. If there's one good thing that has come from this, it has been the reinforcement to OBEY THE !$%@ RULES! Jeez. I'm -137 for the day. And it should have been a bloody profitable day. Time to go cool off now and dig up that dead dog for some more target practice.

Just goes to show - you shouldn't anticipate anything. I needed to wait for confirmation. Yes, I'm a dufus! Out for -63 and will now sit and nurse my wounds. This has turned into a bloody ugly day for me. It should have been very rosy.

Can't take it. It's near the end of the typical daily range (as if this is typical), and it's within kissing distance of support. It's time for a bounce. Long GJ @ 190.03

Congrats Wasp. That last one pulled you through nicely. I'm ticked I missed it, but oh well... there's more fish in the sea.

Closed at b/e. The 4-hour suggests I need to hold fire and reassess. So I will.