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cowpip
Market Wizard-
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Everything posted by cowpip
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Short @ 189.38... slightly belated. Had to run out.
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No need to be sorry. This is my problem, not yours. I'm not trying to copy you... just learn your methodology, which requires some emulation. I feel like I've almost got this down, although my P&L would beg to differ. But that's ok, I'm patient enough to work through this until all the pieces fit together. Thanks for the info. PS: See, this is why it's nice to have you around - I don't mind picking up all of your brain-leakage. It's valuable to me.
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Argh! And all this time, I was assuming they were always pretty-much fixed in time, which helped (in my mind) explain why you have to go so far back in time to confirm a level. The levels back in time seem to coincide very nicely with current-day levels, which is why I thought they were essentially static. You set them once and they change very little. But I agree - and I can see, that on the 240min charts, the reaction levels are a bit different (by tens of pips in some cases). I wonder if I would have traded any differently had I known this. Hmmm... Back to the drawing board.
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As far as I can tell, the market is essentially directionless. Yes, there was rejection at the days lows, but there has been very little constructive candle formation since.
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I was wondering about that. I was going to take that same trade, but of course, I didn't. Wasp, do you have more than one set of S/R lines, for each time-frame (30-min, hourly, 240)?
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Is it opposite day today or something???????? I'm going to have to shut it down. This is a sucky market. I can't tell what it's going to do.
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And out at b/e... I trust this market today about as far as I can spit (even less).
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LOL! You guys sure do help make reporting losses more fun! A little popcorn, and I'll be good! Probably too many. Last week, I took 21 trades. BTW... Stayed flat during the rest of the european session. Just took a long on GJ @ 188.92 about 20 mins ago. But in this market, no one knows where it's going. Every sodding signal I've seen has been a big fat fakeout today. Even the 4-hour hasn't produced any goods.
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And out again -60. Time to wait. This sucker is lying.
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Out -60. Short again @ 188.93. Grr.... I'm sick of the spikes!!!
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Just a word of caution. You shouldn't take the break of the TL. The hourly candle can spike up, then come right back down and close below the trendline. That's why you have to wait for the hourly to close to be safest. EDIT: The BETTER trendline to break would be the shallower one, imo. If price breaks and closes above that, I'll long it. Reason being: It would also (hopefully) close above that S/R zone, which would help further protect stops.
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I'm now just basically waiting for the current hourly candle to close above that steepest trend-line to go long. I'll consider a short if price closes below that bottom trend-line. But that means waiting another hour for the close. OR, I've seen wasp use the close of the 30-min candle to take entries if the 30-min closes above/below a TL. However, I've also seen entries taken on the 30-min become invalidated by the end of the hourly close. It's safest to wait for the hourly close.
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Here's what my chart looks like now, although I think it's premature to draw the bottom trend-line yet. The steepest trend-line is definitely valid now though, me thinks.
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Woo hoo! Nice come-back! I'm still flat - waiting (and waiting... and waiting) for a signal to do something. So this is what eternity feels like?
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Yeah - it is rather boring. But it beats the pants off of some other drab day-in-day-out job.
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Got it. Yeah, I hear you. It could have been that. It doesn't really matter though. It changed the canvas a bit. We have a higher high now on the hourly.
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Ummm... that can't be the entire reason. The biggest move was in the yen (which lost value). The pound gained - it should have lost value. It's probably just positioning in a lower liquidity market (?).
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Is that what caused the jump??? I had no idea. Sorry bud. That's a stinker of a loss. But hey - look at my trading days and you won't feel quite so bad!
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Ahh, you're no fun! The hourly doesn't have such a pattern. I see now that they're not that common on the hourly chart. Hmmm... that's interesting. Perhaps a side-effect of noise? Hmmm...
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Wasp, when you get a chance, I'd appreciate some clarity on the following chart. I've circled an area where price on the hourly has gyrated. According to your trend-line drawing rules, we need to see a higher high and a higher low before we can "connect the dots." In the case circled, would you refrain from connecting the high to the open of the largest right-side red bar because the "pull-back" didn't technically create a higher high and a higher low? I personally would be inclined to draw the trend-line - it just seems to fit. But I'm curious how you would handle it? Thanks. PS: It's a 30 minute chart, not an hourly like I said... but let's pretend it was an hourly chart, ok?