cowpip

I suppose knowing when to hang up the towel is an important trait of any good trader. But if you're quitting for the year just because you've taken a bunch of consecutive losses that you're not used to (something that happens even to the best traders), then maybe you're not accepting the losses as readily as you should? Yeah, I know - I'm not one who should be talking - but you yourself told me that accepting losses is part of the game. I just want you to be sure you're making the right decision based on sound reasoning. Still, I must admit that your plans sound a whole lot more attractive than sitting in front of a laptop for the rest of the year. Hey, poke your vacationing head in here now and then and say "Hi" to us poor saps who are still struggling to "make it" sufficiently to have a decent vacation! Thanks for everything, Wasp. Have a good one!

Been flat all day. No trades. The one signal I did see was iffy enough for me to stay out. The other signals occurred while I was sleeping (figures).

Yep. I took an entry just before the markets opened (short) on the anticipation of a gap lower and closed for +340. Not a bad way to start the week. The bankers inability to help out Lehman is weighing heavy.

I appreciate the post-fest you guys had after-hours. There's some good information in there. Yes, firewalker, I am trying to find my own method that works as well as Wasp's. All the years that I've been trading, I have not looked hardly at all at GJ. I have always shied away from it because it was so volatile (and I was burned sufficiently on my initial attempts to play it to stay away). As a result, I never learned the personality of this pair. And that is, very likely, the dominant reason for many of my problems. I'm learning that it's "personality" is very similar to $/yen, except the moves are accentuated by about a factor of 10. That's taken some time to get used to. I'm aware of most of the tricks that the market plays, but for some reason, just haven't been able to translate what I've seen in the personality of other pairs to GJ. It's been almost like starting over from scratch. But I'm getting it. And I'll nail this sucker yet. Getting bucked off won't discourage me from trying to ride this bronco. I'll tame the beast. Just need a little more time. Each week, I learn more of the behavior. And I figure I'm probably seeing some of the worst behavior that's possible to be seen in the current market environment. And that's good. I want to know the extremes of its behavior. The pullbacks have sometimes been so violent that I've misinterpreted them as reversals (as I did this week). I wasn't quite prepared for that, so that is something else I won't easily forget. I'm definitely making progress on the S/R lines, which is a good thing. They're so critical, it's crucial to get them right. Another week or two and I'm confident I can start pulling in some decent profits more consistently.

Hmmm... very interesting. Thanks. You raise a very important point that I have neglected to consider: When you enter a trade, you MUST expect a pull-back. They happen - and it's valuable that they do so you can better assess the true trend. BUT, sometimes the pull-backs will be pretty severe and you have to examine them as nothing more than pull-backs (or stop-hunts) and hold your position. I don't think I was looking for pull-backs enough this last week. I saw them and immediately thought (uh-oh - trend-change). But no, they were just pull-backs superimposed on the larger move. Interesting.... hmm...

Well Wasp, you pulled it off again this week. Congrats. Here's a graphic chart of one of the problems I'm having. Perhaps you can help identify something that you've experienced in the past and have since resolved? All I can assume is that you are patient enough to wait for price to reach an area that you would consider worth cashing out on - and you keep your stop 60 pips or so above your entry until that target is reached, at which time you look at price (and the TL's) and determine if it's reversing. You then reverse if you get the right signal at that level. But in REAL-TIME, when you see something like the first spike I highlight show up, all I could think was, "ok, the TL was broken and it's now turned." But it ends up being a big fat stop-hunt that gets me in an undesirable reversal position where I double my losses. Is there any clear way to avoid these situations?

Yes. And THAT is why virtually every analyst out there is wrong - they rely on the fundamentals to make sense of the markets, and they're almost always wrong when they give guidance (they lag the market).

Short $/yen @ 107.12

It went to +30 for me... I had a feeling it wouldn't run lower, given the 180 pips it already had run for the day. Sorry to hear about your loss. This is one heck of a choppy market. Doesn't look like it'll settle down anytime soon, given how jittery everyone is about Lehman. And hey, have you all heard? The U.S. govt is actively engaged in orchestrating another takeover of Lehman. Woo hoo! More liability on the U.S. taxpayer, perhaps? Now why would the dollar rally on such news? Ah well, nothing makes sense anymore. Not even price action is making much sense.

Short $/yen @ 106.80

Myrtleturtle... some fresh sleep and everything looks different. Your trend-channel is much larger than you annotated. It's just resuming where it left off prior to the Fannie/Fraudy thing... PS: Just took took +20 on $/yen. Quick in and out. It's not much, but it was double the size I was using on GJ, so it's a start. Sorry for not posting live. My wife is heading out for the day and I had no time to post it live.

myrtleturtle, yeah, hindsight is 20-20, for sure. I hate to blame things for losses, but I really and truly am thinking that I was just too blasted tired to be thinking straight the last few days. Having the laptop beside my bed has turned out to be a bad idea. But hey, you don't know until you try, right? I slept last night without the laptop and I'm thinking a whole lot clearer than I was. Huge difference. Also, I wasn't seeing a channel at all. I saw a range and I was hoping to catch the bounce off the bottom of the range. Not to be so this time, so I took another loss last night on that last trade I annotated. Fatigue can dull the edge. I should have known better. So I will now only be taking trades during the US session - and maybe the early Asian session. I may also start focusing less on GJ and more on the dollar pairs, since GJ often is more noisy during the US session. Yes, the profit targets are smaller, but with less noise, the risk is also lower.

Well that's just too bizarre! After enduring a huge run against my position... after having price come within 0.1 pips of my stop... the sucker runs right back up and when the hourly candle closes, it breaks the trend line and signals a long for me. And it signalled the long 2 pips higher than my original entry. Now that's freaky odd.

Sorry dude. I haven't quite figured out the key here, but I think if you burp, then swallow, then fart, it will run in your direction.

Well at least someone is going to make money here.

There's simply no way to win in this market. I'm going to have to take a break here. This is beyond frustrating. EDIT: I'm still long, but just... I don't expect to survive.

Thanks... that frames me perfectly this week.

To show this wasn't another blind trade, there IS some support here on the daily frame as well, although this does not by any stretch protect my entry. EDIT: But it helps.

Long @ 188.42 It closed smack dab on my trend-line, but the rejection from lower was so strong, I have to think this may have switched directions now. We shall see.

This is nuts. Just who is in the driving seat anyway???

Nice call, pipmonster. I *SHOULD* have been in on that one. My bloody STUPIDITY!! Out -40. I am so sick of seeing losses. Every bloody time I take a trade, it goes against me, EXCEPT when I close prematurely. Argh!

Long GJ @ 188.75 (nice call, pipmonster!).

And as is typical - within MINUTES of my decision to close, the dirty scum-bag decides to resume the downward move. Sigh... Now I'm being over-protective of my entries, which is just as bad as any loss. Hmmm... I need more sleep.

Yep... it's definitely ramping down toward a flat-line status. I guess almost all of the air in this balloon has been bled away. T'is a pity that I wasn't able to better capitalize on more of the action.

Closed for +14. This is going no where, but is threatening to become another pullback for a move higher.