cowpip

I wonder if his stocks and options are ever-present in his mind. Or maybe his wife is driving the boat?

Holy crap! REALLY??? No kidding. So it really is possible that he is making bad decisions to help keep his own investment alive. Hmmm.... very interesting. Thanks very much for the info, MidKnight. Much appreciated.

Closed for +104. Long GJ @ 195.72

This has been a hairy ride so far. Man... weird WEIRD markets today. The Dow is sky-high, credit markets are bumping against the bottom, and the dollar is starting to rocket again. I'd say the stock market is the most dysfunctional of the bunch. But then, that makes sense given how much tampering the govt has done with that group.

I'm not an equity trader, so I'm not aware of the tools that can be used to figure this out. But I'm dying to know if King Henry, by chance, still owns shares in Goldman Sachs? If he does, can anyone tell me how many shares he owns? Is it possible that his intentions contain more than "national best interests" at heart? Is it possible that he is also going to profit enormously if the bailout allows Goldman to make a killing? I'm just a wee bit concerned about a conflict of interest with his role as the "master banker" right now. Is it justified, or did he have to relinquish his shares when he took the Treasury role?

Here's what I've seen (and took) on GJ... It's in keeping with "trade what you see, not what you feel" and is despite the rising wedge-type formation you pointed out, and the anticipation of a potentially favorable (to the markets) bailout bill. Sorry it wasn't live... was busy with other things.

I would agree. Everyone is probably thinking they will be announcing a bailout plan at 10 am EDT this morning, but who knows if the market will like what they see? They better, or this sucker could tank.

Wasp sure picked a dandy time to take a break. Some guys have all the luck. I left on vacation and missed some great activity. He leaves on vacation and the markets flatline - just for him, no doubt! Absolutely nothing in my arsenal is sticking in these markets. We need more movement. This waiting for the Paulson robbery is doing me no good. The sooner they figure out how to get back on the road, the better. Until they do, I'll be flat.

Right! Not only that, but Buffett's strong support for the Treasury getting what they want will probably have some political pull. BUT IT SHOULDN'T!!! This is a man who is about as biased as one can get. He's so detached from the common person that he wouldn't know one if it slapped him across the face. This Paulson bailout may be necessary in some form, but the loss of people-power and freedoms (and the implicit legal abuse that is possible from Paulson's poorly thought-out original plan) leaves the door open for some real bad decisions in the future by future Treasury Chairmen. Section 8 in particular is scary. Why didn't Paulson just dress up like an armed robber and walk into Fort Knox with his bazooka? The results would have been the same. Sorry for the rant. But his bailout plan stinks. Turning this back to trading... IF the bailout plan goes through as-is, that alone may be enough to short the dollar with as much vigour as I can muster. Of course, technicals will matter, but I will be looking for the next available rally to short the dollar HARD. I can't see a way how they could get around this without printing enormous sums of money. Mr. Buffett obviously isn't in a donating mood. Gee, I wonder why???

The more the merrier, Firewalker. I'm game - as long as this thread doesn't become a shouting match or an attempt by others to discredit spot over futures or futures over spot. And yes, please, no trolls allowed. I trust you two would consider moving it back to private if things do get out of hand? Let's give it a shot.

This is a tough market, Don4. We appear to be locked in a contracting range now.

I typically wait for a second attempt at the highs before giving up, Don4. I haven't seen a double-top yet. If it fails to get above 156.54ish a second time (and close above there), I'd personally cash out. It's showing some exhaustion, probably mostly because its already met close to its average daily range. Just a thought...

Don't forget this trend-line, pipmonster. The longer trends come into play as well as the shorter-ones. I learned that last week when I could have / should have held my long from way down lower and instead cut it short at 300 pips. It could have been a much better week if I would have had the balls to hold it off of these longer trends.

Thanks Wasp. I think you're right. Hi-ho... I'm off to catch some fish. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Chickened out. Bwak! Closed at b/e after it failed to run lower on the current hourly. But there's no change in the signal. Maybe I'll re-enter if given the chance. I dunno...

If we always expected the unexpected, we wouldn't trade! We'd be too freaked to take on any risk! At least, I would. I'm betting that there will be some order amongst the disorder. But the problem during this period is that the disorder is almost louder than the order. I slept with my laptop again last night (wooo! much to my wife's chagrin!), and managed to take two losses on false trend-line breaks. I guess there was just too much noise to reliably choose a TL break. I'm in one more time here on a clearer hourly TL break, short GJ from 190.74. With any luck, this thing will roll lower. Otherwise, I'll be calling it quits for the rest of the day and tomorrow. Going to get my head out of this mess for the weekend and enjoy some camping and fishing.

GJ has been all over the map lately. This volatility is awesome when you're on the right side of the trade. But it can be an awful thing when you aren't. What might have taken price an hour or two to move now only takes mere minutes. It's definitely a more dangerous playground now. Just look at the daily ranges lately. This entire week it's been 500 pip daily ranges. Wow. You don't see that very often!

Yeah. That's my next challenge. It could easily run up a tad higher and fill that gap before it gives up for the day. I really did want to hold it until I get another signal, but man... such a quick move higher gets me nervous for an equally quick reverse right back down. And I'd have to (yet again) dig up that dead dog and shoot it some more if that happened. And by now, it's gotta be stinking pretty bad. I do like this all-in, all-out philosophy though. It works for me. Yeah, it might not run higher. That's quite a trip already. I find it very interesting how it's been almost entirely GBP that has done the running. I would have thought it would have tanked given the skiddish nature of the market. Just goes to show that you can't trade what you think. LOL!

Ahhh yes!!! Very nice and big smile! I know I should have held it to the very end (this is where I get weak), but I need the profits, so I bailed at +320. That was a slam-dunk! Cool! Fully paid for my losses today and padded the 'ol account too.

That makes sense. Thanks.

Sure, but how far (in the case of a long) below S/R do you move it? Or do you move it to match S/R (would seem to make better sense to move it below the S/R 10 or 20 pips).

Wasp, how long do you wait until you move your stop? I know it used to be after it passed the second SR level, but I wonder if that's how you're still doing it in these conditions?

Yes, I hear you. Not easy at all. I just went long on the close of that last hourly. Bloody well better work out this time. The signal is as clear as the nose on my face.

Argh... I'm just not being patient enough, Wasp. I'm seeing the same entries as you, but for one reason or another, I haven't been pulling the trigger. And when I have, it's been too late. Silliness really. I know better. It's really a hinderance not to be able to monitor at night. I had a trade last night that was over 150 pips in profit, but by the time I woke up, every cent had been chewed up. It's a symptom of this market: Wild quick moves.

I can empathize completely, Wasp. Four losses in a row sucks big-time, and it may not happen to you often, but it does happen. And you were able to get right back on that horse and prove to yourself that you can make money, even in some of the worst market conditions out there. I tip my hat to you for that. I've been whipped out twice today and may now be in for a third loss. Today hasn't been nice (during the US session, anyway). Crazy whippiness.