cowpip

Take a look at the 4-hour chart, Wasp. Isn't that just lovely? Chop chop.

If we were liver, we'd be chopped right now. This is going EVERYWHERE. That's the problem. I have no clue either. Throw your money in the air and see how much of it you can catch. Those are the current odds.

I use the 4-hour charts, highs and lows of the candle BODIES, not the wicks. I'll also plot 1-hour S/R lines using the same method to help judge shorter-term S/R. But as Wasp has said time and again, it's the 4-hour S/R that rules. When plotting the S/R, the lines should pass through areas where price switches from support to resistance or resistance to support. That is most easily discerned using the bodies of the candles.

daedalus, he has some images on his blog that described the theory and process quite well. Maybe these will help?...

Careful out there guys... these markets are (imho) quite disorderly. We need at least reasonable short-term trends to make any cash. And right now, there are no reliable short-term (hourly) trends. It's chaos right now.

I'm right with you there, Wasp. Took too more losses on perfectly valid signals overnight. No reason to trade in this dreck.

Crapola squared!! I not only missed the move higher, but I also missed the bigger stepped move higher this evening. My sodding internet went down for two bloody hours! Murphy is really playing games with me this week! And the signal was so incredibly clear too! Sigh...

I hear you! Murphy's sodding law!

Yip... that's about all you can do. It works more times than not for you. Missing one now and then is just part of the game.

These moves now are so volatile (> 100 pip swings in short periods of time), it just makes no sense to me to attempt trading GJ for now. This needs to settle down. Your entry would have to be very well placed to avoid a loss now. Sigh... Maybe I'll look at another pair for the rest of the day.

I'm just as frustrated. But hey, there's nothing we can do about it. This sucker could turn right around and rip higher, for all we know. That plunge was a tad bit too steep for my liking. Sure, it would have been sweet to take, but I'll make it another way (just not as fast). It'll be interesting to see how this hour (and the next) candles close.

I pretty much screwed myself last night. I picked the wrong bottom, twice. And I too also missed that move from 181.70 lower. I'm standing aside now. I'm obviously not on the ball today. Time to wait for a clearer signal.

I was distracted and just simply missed it. It happens. I should have been more closely glued to the screens.

Nicely done pipmonster! Hopefully, you're still holding it and making some bookoo-bucks!

Wasp, do you have a method that permits a reasonable entry (with a reasonable r/r) AFTER a move has commenced? Or do you always consider it best to just wait for the entire next bus? I've missed this move down and it's ticked me off. A run back up to touch the trend-line seems like the next-best hope, on a pull-back?

Crapola... missed this move lower on GJ. Looks good and strong so far - break of the weekly congestion too. Sigh... guess you can't snag them all. I hope some of you were able to grab on for a ride.

So it ended up tanking back down to the lows for the official open. That's a pretty big gap (again). Interesting. I'm SO not looking forward to filling in more blank spaces with S/R lines. Sigh... I'm worried there may come a time when my platform won't go back far enough on the 4-hour to see the support. I guess I'll have to rely on daily support lines after that.

Can't do anything about that. It goes, we follow the best we can. Looks like prices are stabilizing around 185.70/80. At any rate, I won't start nibbling at this for another 4 or 5 hours anyway. But with less than an hour to go before the official open, it should be interesting to watch, at least. Here's how the 5-min chart morphed on Oanda from the pre-Asian time. Those initial drops were instantaneous. The drops happened in less than 10 seconds and then flat-lined for a while. Nasty.

It's bouncing back up now to 185.70 at the present time. It may have been a stop-hunt during low-liquidity. It dropped as low as 184.21 before bouncing. Still, I think you may be right. Hey, take a look at the monthly chart (not that we trade off of that). If you do a fib-extension, you end up with a target level way WAY down near 167, which was last touched in June 2001. Granted, that's a monthly chart and could take a year to get there, but fib extensions are reasonable tools for estimating targets. The only thing I will royally hate about it going further down is the lack of trust in determining S/R levels. I like seeing prices bounce off of recent levels, not levels that were seen 5 years ago. Ah well. If it goes down, it goes down. I don't really care, as long as I'm in on it.

GJ on OAnda's platform have dropped down to 184.60. If that holds, the "official" open should show a serious gap lower.

LOL... Kinky or not, they definitely bring home the bacon more than those "westerners" do!

Thanks, myrtleturtle, but I'm no Wasp (yet). I took a few silly losses trying to figure out how to stop and reverse. So unfortunately, I didn't get a 4-digit return like Wasp did, but I am close enough!

Once in a blue moon, one of the other tools in my belt occasionally brings home the bacon. A long from 186.15ish would have been a far safer entry from the hourly perspective. Had I missed the low entry, I definitely would have taken the hourly entry.

I'm certainly no genius, but I did go long at 184.78. The NFP reaction convinced me that the daily low warranted a very tight-stop (30-pip) attempt at a long. It's paying off nicely.

Wasp, I'm taking more than my share of hits trying to figure out the safest way to SAR. I would appreciate your take on how you would handle the following situation. You enter long at the area circled in red (at the open of that circled candle). But instead of running higher, price reverses back inside the trend and knocks your stop. When would you take the reversal short? 1. Would you take it when your stop is hit? 2. Or would you wait until that candle finishes forming and then short it if it closes below the trend line and long it if it closes above the trend line? 3. Or would you go short as soon as price breaks the support level at the base? 4. Or finally, would you wait for the candle that breaks the support level at the base to close before shorting? As always, thanks.