cowpip

If those are the components that constitute your 'edge,' then yes, you will absolutely be a happy camper. For another individual, using Fibs, CCI's and the orientation of humping birds might yield greater success. That is why screen-time is so important. You won't find your own edge if you don't get enough of it. And since this typically requires a whole lot of watching-time, it helps explain why most people end up on the losing end of the stick and then proclaim, "you can't make any money trading." Rubbish. They just gave up too early or exercised inadequate skill in money-management to pull them through the screen-time phase.

G'day, Downrivertrader. I don't think the fundamentals have lined up to provide you with a big downleg in the dollar (yet). As you probably know, nothing goes in a straight line either. The dollar is driven mostly by interest rate differentials and although I personally doubt that the Fed will be raising rates anytime soon, they can have a fairly profound effect on the markets by simply talking. More importantly, europe and others are now starting to realize that they may need to start cutting rates. As soon as they commence cutting, the dollar will strengthen by proxy. So dollar strength isn't solely based upon U.S. economic factors. A slowdown in Europe will strengthen the dollar, and that slowdown is becoming increasingly apparent in the data as they lag the U.S. by some time. It is possible you may be right. The dollar may suffer a catastrophic failure, but that likely wouldn't happen unless something equally catastrophic occurred - like the U.S. AAA rating (which probably shouldn't be AAA in the first place, but that's another argument entirely) getting downgraded by ratings agencies. I figure the odds of that happening anytime soon (within the next week or two) are about as high as getting hit by a flying whale. A crash in the stock market might also cause a rapid decline in SOME dollar pairs, and this is perhaps the most probable cause of a rapid dollar decline. I can envision some sort of a capitulation market crash in the not-too-distant-future. A catalyst could be something as simple as Congress failing to pass the housing bill, or another major bank failure. At this point, many things might produce such a crash. EDIT: However, keep in mind that a stock market crash will only affect certain pairs. EUR/USD, for example, would probably drop (the dollar would strengthen) due to the safe-haven flight to safety feature of the U.S. dollar. Other pairs, like EUR/JPY would probably drop like a rock as risk aversion rockets higher. So care must be taken in which pair you trade during these events. Trading what you think is often an error. Even if you're right, your timing will almost certainly bring you some level of pain. If you really want to make money, trade what you see, not what you think. I'll trade further dollar weakness when I see it, and only when I see it. Follow the leader. Don't try to lead.

Hi Sledge. The answer is largely #5. There are too many people out there with different agenda's to narrow cause and effect down to only one or two of your options. Many will be profit-taking. Many will see a reversal pattern and will outright short into an uptrend. Others may speculate that price will break through the channel and will go long at the top. Still others will be looking at a different time-frame that will give them a reason to react in one way or another according to that time frame. So there are a myriad of causal reasons why price does what it does. The best answer to your question probably rests in numbers: Are there more people trading what YOU are seeing, or are you seeing something that only a minority are trading? When you trade what the majority sees, you will always be on the right side of the trade. And that is why it is so important to examine the playing field from multiple time-frames. When multiple-time frames converge into a single dominant opinion, the odds begin to stack in your favor.

Here's my 2 cents... "No position" IS a position. If nothing is meeting your criteria, don't trade. It's as simple as that. No point throwing money in a hole if you can't get it back out again. Japan is on holiday on Monday, so some of the yen crosses may be a tad quieter until europe and the US step up to the plate. Weekends are usually when the worst news hits the fan. I don't know if you'd see too many bank failures during the week. The FDIC probably needs that time to get set up for the "new configuration" at the start of the new week when a bank fails. I don't expect we'll see anything big this weekend, but I do personally expect to see more bank failures in the not-too-distant future. If IndyMac (which wasn't even on FDIC's watch list) can fail, who knows what other surprises there might be. Next week looks to be a fairly light week, data wise, except for durable goods on Friday and existing home sales (which will probably continue to be depressed). If Bernanke and company can keep their mouths shut this week, maybe we'll have less jittery markets.

Can I watch??? PLEEEAASEE???? I'd give away a testicle (not necessarily mine) to watch! :rofl:

Arifwise... this is a discussion for the moderators to figure out, I guess. I'm sure you're well-intentioned... but you sure sound green under the collar to me. I give up. This discussion will go nowhere. It's like talking to an empty beer bottle.

Arifwise, if your trades are long-term, why would you only say that you will provide advice for 20 days? It can take a VERY LONG TIME for the monthly charts to set up properly (way beyond your 20-day offer). I'm stymied concerning your offer. Why would you even make such an offer in the first place? What gives, buddy???

He's whacked alright, Tess. Holy crap... a rare find indeed. :o

Oh crap... here we go again! Buddy... you have illustrated absolutely no skill or knowledge concerning forex. Why would anyone pay you for trade decisions? Besides, that sort of activity is strictly forbidden here. Please move this into another thread. It doesn't belong here. Thanks.

Huh?? Confusious says... "Man with hole in pocket feel cocky all day." You never answered my question, arifwise. Yes, actions speak louder than words, but knowledge trumps it all... which is why I am concerned that you are going to give people advice on when to go long and short in spot forex. I trust that those who pay attention will take adequate protection first. This should be an interesting exercise. At any rate... this latter discussion has nothing to do with pre-trade checklists and should probably be moved elsewhere. To keep things on-topic, here is my daily mantra: - Get up. - Check the markets. - Check the fundamentals. - Mark up the obvious horizontal zones of S/R. - Check for price confluence with fibs, daily/weekly pivots, etc. - If price isn't anywhere near a zone of interest, sit tight and wait. - If price is within a zone of interest, watch price action closely for signs of continuation or reversal and play the market accordingly. Although I recognize that many people benefit from meditation and/or praying to the "currency" or "stock" market Gods, I simply believe that if I take a loss, it's my own fault. And if I take a win, it's also my own fault. I can't blame any God or any failure to meditate properly. It's ALL my fault. I accept it and move on. Meditation to me is a waste of my time (yes, I tried it long ago and it made absolutely no difference to me). Just FOLLOW THE HERD and hop on for the ride when it's least painful. Keep stops relatively tight and located in clear areas where if they're hit, you're obviously on the wrong side of the trade -- and if they're not hit, you're good to go. Keep it simple and adapt.

If this is all true, arifwise, then why would you ask such a silly "newbie-ish" question as this in the forex forum? (see this post). With so much trading under your belt, the answer to this question should have been self-evident. ????? Maybe you have just been trading off-and-on (more off?) than full-time? Either way, I find it odd. Very odd.

Bravo, forsearch. Couldn't have sung it better myself.

Whew... good thing! I was going to suggest a seance or sprinkle your computer with holy water! :hmmmm:

James... - right-click on your desk-top and go to your display Properties. - Navigate to the Settings tab. - Right-click on the monitor you want to be your Primary (or first) monitor and check the "Primary" option. - Click OK Voila, all should be back to normal. Hope this helps. EDIT: Hmmm... upon re-reading your post, maybe you have already done this through the control panel. EDIT AGAIN: Never mind these instructions. You're on VISTA. Vista has a mind of it's own and should be burned, imo.

That is exactly right.

Arifwise, if you really are "wise," you'll do exactly what you said, and WATCH THE SCREEN. Watch and watch and watch some more... and then when you get sick of watching, watch the screens even more. If you really want 500 pips in a week, expect to spend the next few years WATCHING. I wouldn't trade with real cash anytime soon either. You should be paper trading for a good long time before you try cash. PS: A little less "blessings" would sure be nice. I'm fine without them, thank you.

I'm afraid Art and Tess are right about this. Look at it this way, idaxtrader: Anyone can drive a car without any lessons. They just need to be told what key to turn, what pedals to push, and what the steering wheel does. Some people will get along just fine with that information. But shove them into New York City during rush hour and they'll be mashed-potato soup in short-order. Sure, they could drive - anyone can, but CAN THEY NAVIGATE? Of course not. Not without some serious additional information and instructions on how to use that information. The more information and knowledge you have to navigate by, the better your driving will become. It's that simple.

I still think many of you have still missed the point. BlowFish said it first, and he's absolutely right. YOU can't reliably find a mentor. I don't believe that they actively look for students (at least, the good ones don't). THEY find YOU. When a mentor can see real desire, genuine interest, and an honest dedication to work hard, he/she will determine for themselves whether you are worth their time to step in and assist. Yes, this significantly limits the number of people who have been truly mentored. It requires being in the right place, at the right time, or knowing the right people. But THEY (the mentors) decide who they will teach. And they'll likely be very picky about choosing the right clay to mold. Those who ask for cash aren't mentors; they're tutors. And there is a big difference in the quality of education they provide. "Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and you have fed him for a lifetime." A real mentor will teach you how to think. He won't tell you how to think.

Agreed. But I've followed enough new traders around (and this applied to myself as well when I first started) to know that most new traders start with too many indicators. BUT THAT'S OK. It's the process by which they learn what indicators work and what ones don't work. Generally, simple is usually better to avoid analysis-paralysis. But if someone has the brain-power to follow 10 separate indicators to generate a single buy/sell signal THAT WORKS, there's no reason to change it. But that doesn't preclude the possibility of tweaking and possibly removing extraneous indicators until you converge on something simpler and just as profitable. That's usually the challenge for new traders. Even better would be to see if it's possible to separate the various indicators to create multiple workable trading strategies from them. Having more than one workable strategy is important to staying flexible in the market. One strategy for ranging markets. Another for trending. Another for scalping, etc. And don't forget to throw in wise money-management. That in itself is often a reason why new traders fail to succeed.

Bernanke and company were largely betrayed by oil and energy, but their early "secret" policy of allowing the dollar to depreciate is probably what really sunk this (the rebate check) boat. I'm sure Bernanke screams at night in a cold sweat, "I'm in a car-crusher and can't get out. Help!" For someone who has devoted most of his own life to a study of the Great Depression, his worst nightmare must be close to a waking dream by now. I'll bet his pharmacist loves him. "Oh look, here he comes again. Break out the sleep med boxes, Ethel!"

I agree. I don't envy James or the mods for situations like this. It can be tough making judgment calls. You can't please everyone all of the time, as much as I'm sure they would like. So far as I have seen, Walter's conversations have been nothing but intellectual. He deserves a significant amount of credit given his contributions in the past, even though I personally did not agree with the way he was presenting his course. But hey, it shouldn't hurt to test the limits now and then. It keeps the mods on their toes and helps strengthen the integrity of the web site.

Alright Sledge... you did it - you resurrected this thing. And good for you. I hadn't noticed this thread until now. Brownsfan, if making money trading is easy for you - and if you're bored, here's something that will consume your time until you die: Become a philanthropist. Do some anonymous research and find a group that could really use some help in some way, then work your butt off and help them. The hardest thing in the world for regular Joe's and Jane's to accomplish (particularly non-profit organizations) is making money. If it comes easy for you, then find a good cause and exert some of your talents on their behalf. You could even do it anonymously if you're not interested in fame and status. You won't have to look hard to find a need for your talents.

And even those won't seriously affect your trading if you're smart. Stop spikes are great for hitching rides. Misquotes happen, but I've never had a really bad misquote - nothing but a few pips above/below the normal bid/ask, and that was usually during fast price action. The worst misquotes will happen immediately around or after a news event, but if you trade that close to the news, you deserve a misquote. You're bang on, forsearch.

:rofl: They must also have a flavor for trading the news too, right? Lol... I used to meditate, when I first started trading. But then I discovered that it really wasn't doing me a ding-dang bit of good. Mental state may be important for some people, but sensible aggressiveness is just as valuable. It's as simple as knowing what's going on in the world, be aware of the important market levels, and hitch the rides that are worth hitching. Nothing complicated. Nothing mysterious or requiring hypnosis (at least, not for me). Just tag'em and bag'em without remorse.

That's an excellent quote, James. And you have some solid reasoning combined with a clearly bullish candle pattern. You have to trade what you see, not what you feel. But nonetheless, we probably shouldn't completely ignore the fundamentals either. My personal opinion is that I don't believe the sun will really rise on equities until we see house prices start to stabilize. Until then, there will probably always be a risk of further downside. However, that said, trading what you see will often yield sufficient profits to protect your entry on bounces - just in case there is further downside. Look at the temporary bottoms in your chart. At the time they formed, people thought they might be real bottoms. If people would have traded what they saw, they would have (and likely did) make a decent profit. I'd be a bit careful trading before this Thursday's NFP, which is likely going to be a bit screwy with the low liquidity. Why did they move it to Thursday instead of waiting until next Friday like they have done in the past? And does anyone think that perhaps the Fed/Treasury will consider this a golden opportunity to intervene? They would definitely get more bang for their buck on Thursday with liquidity so low.