cowpip

Closed short at b/e. Will look for a better entry. Need to reassess price action.

Gotcha. Thanks.

Closed my long for +43 and now short at 211.25. Stop at 211.68. Why? Seemed like a decent place to reverse at the short-term resistance zone following that rejection off of the 61% fib. Trend is still down, and consolidation is likely to occur, so I'm trying to play the waves. If my stop is hit, that'll signal a decent change in trend.

That's the puppy.

Wasp, on your chart for today that you posted in the traders log, you have a short horizontal line penciled in around mid-July that just incorporates the small dip / reversal that took place. You explained that the short lines are just for reference and you don't use them to base decisions off of. Why pencil them in at all if they aren't used to make decisions? I'm confused why they're shown if you don't make use of them.

What gave you the signal to go long at that point in time?

Wasp, what is the purpose of your short horizontal lines in your charts? They're obvious S/R, but I can't figure out why they're not long lines as well. Edit: Oh crap - there I go again. This probably should have been posted in the other thread. Sorry about that.

I'm long from 110.74 following the hammer on the 15-min rejection at support. There has been some nice buying down here during the last few hours. Let's see if it continues.

No kidding. Sheesh... I couldn't wait for that last 4-hour candle to form before hitting the hay, and I must have been too tired to act properly. It was screaming short at me. Sigh... I'm glad you finally nailed the direction right. Note to self (again): Don't make decisions when you're tired.

Oops... typo... that should be long from 212.09, not 04. Bloody high spreads during the Asian session certainly don't make this easier. Edit: Looks like I may be wrong on this one. I'll let it go overnight. Time for some sleep. Happy hunting, Wasp.

Very sorry to hear that, Wasp. It really sucks when mistakes creep into profits. I've closed my trade for +60 and I'm now long GJ from 212.04, with a very tight stop at 211.89 in case this current hourly inside bar breaks lower. Price action is looking a bit tired going lower. We'll soon see.

I was obviously looking the wrong support line. It should have read, the next measured lower is close to the support line I have marked around 210.40. Sorry. But it has a looong way to go to get there.

You have a fetish for 215, don't you? kidding... I'm going to hold this short for now and see where the 4-hour candle closes (I'm one hour off of you on my charts - my 4-hour closes one hour before you). My chart suggests this may just be a retracement back through the last 4-hour candle. If there is any real intent to push this lower, it should occur within the next hour or two. I'd like to base my decision on how the current 4-hour candle closes. If we extend the last move down further (from the last swing high near the resistance around 70/80), we end up with a measured target very close to my next marked support level around 211.60/70. BUT, it first has to break and hold that tough support level at 212.20.

Nice call, Wasp! You obviously saw and/or felt something I didn't.

Ahhh, that's much better. Thanks for the clarification.

I'm holding my short for now. A reversal pattern hasn't yet confirmed to me.

What is the current time there? It's currently almost 18 GMT according to the world clock. Are you accounting for daylight savings time? I would have thought your daily candle open time would have been closer to the Asian market open hours.

Cool... 19 GMT... When does your platform open a new daily candle?

Alright Wasp... another question for you. I've noticed from your real-time trades that you are more often than not, in the market. You're in until you see a reversal signal, then you reverse. That's a very efficient way to operate and is (again) an attractive attribute. However, I have noticed that once in a while, you will make use of a trailing stop. What conditions qualify the use of trailing stops for you?

Heh heh... yip. I think this topic has been exhausted. Thanks GammaJammer for your persistence and clarity.

A third process... oh yes... undoubtably there is. Take your pick: seismic events, the rate of meteor falls, sunspot counts, confirmed werewolf sightings, and the rates of humping elephants. One of those will surely be correlated.

Thanks for that, Wasp. I have gone short GJ at 212.75 at resistance. Stop: 213.05

It's still easier than sitting through 10 hours of intraday crap, and you won't over-trade either (which is where most newbies get into trouble, and where most retail outlets get fat). Better yet, buy yourself a wireless laptop and keep it running beside your bed. Then you don't even have to get up. Your wife (or significant other) might bean you on the head for disturbing her sleep, but she'd probably bean you on the head anyway for getting up and disturbing her sleep, right? I'm personally one who needs sleep, so I would have to let two of the 4-hour candles expire before I would be able to adjust positions. But usually, if you have the direction right, that won't make too much of a difference, imo.

I hope Tess or Anna-Maria don't hear this statement! :fight: Dude, that is one of the simplest, yet most profound statements of truth that I've encountered out there. Readers would do well to learn it well! I absolutely agree, 110%. I like your style, Wasp. It's irreverantly cool and I can see value in applying some of your style in my own trading decisions. This has been an enlightening discussion for me, and I thank you for it.

That was only one of the reasons I thought it would drop. Price action also suggested to me a further drop. I read a lot, trying to understand exactly what kind of shape the economies of the world are in, but with a particular slant towards where interest rates are headed. I could care less about the drivel that analysts spout (such as the mindless automotons on CNBC). They know less about where currencies are headed than most and are probably actually better contrarian indicators. For me, price action is king, and I'll trade what I see long before I will trade what I think. I've thought for some time now that the U.K. and U.S. economies are in the dumps - and far worse is likely to come. But I have no idea when that state will manifest itself in the markets, which is why I can't trade what I think. But the fundamental slant I obtain does give me some basis to understand price action (at least longer-term price action) and it does help me anticipate major changes in interest rate policies. Yes, sometimes there is no correlation between price action and the fundamentals (as you have noted) - particularly for shorter-term swings, which is why price action always trumps fundamentals in my mind. Anyone who trades based solely off of the fundamentals is in for a sore surprise and a losing profit-to-loss graph. In the end, price action doesn't lie. It's king. It's always been that way, and will always be that way. This is why I can completely understand how you can be on the winning side of your trades so often, even disregarding fundamentals. It's also why I am on the winning sides of trades more often than not. If my fundamental analysis weighed more heavily than price action, or if I allowed my fundamental analysis to unduly bias my price-action interpretation, I would see a hole rather than a profit. It's as simple as that, to me.