cowpip

What? You can't drink and drive in the markets??? :\

I'll let Wasp respond to this one, but from what I understand, if conditions deteriorate such that the risk to reward ratio moves toward unity, it's worth stepping out and waiting or search for another pair (or change stop sizes and target sizes). But that's just common sense. For myself, if I take too many consecutive losses, I'll step out and reassess, as that's usually a sign of a mis-step. But again, that's just common sense too. EDIT: Forgot... if I get the timing off, I'll personally step out and wait until I get a valid signal.

Jeez dude... you sure do know how to milk it for all it's worth! Good job!

Hey there Jack... Howdie doodie... Wasp and I are the only one's posting live trades here (that I'm aware of), and we both shorted from 213.50. I'm holding mine... I'm assuming Wasp has as well. He usually posts if he reverses. I'm posting at the same time I do things as well. If you feel inclined, post away. Discussions of these trades are here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3846&goto=newpost

Beautiful. That's what I wanted to hear. Simplicity at its best.

In the current example, the 4-hour candle has closed in a bearish config, so I would probably hold. But if it closed in a candle such as something like a spinning top-instead, how would you handle it?

Another question for you Wasp. In a case where price runs well past your entry and then comes back (like now, after testing the next resistance level), do you ever close your position and try to reorient it at another location, or have you found that doing so doesn't usually provide you with a better entry?

Heh heh... one of these days, I'll get a post up before you... unless you have super "moderator powers"...!:pc guru:

Short GJ 212.51... EDIT: You beat me to the punch, Wasp! Jeez you're fast. I mean't 213.51. PS: Just so everyone knows, I am NOT copying Wasp's trades. I'm making these decisions on my own. I never saw his post before I executed the trade.

And I'm out for -50... You were right, Wasp. That 4-hour suggested further strength. Tricked again... I thought waiting one hour would make a difference. But it didn't. Lol... such is life. Time to reload. PS: So far, not so good on this strat. But I'm not abandoning it yet. Bad luck happens.

That last hourly candle still failed to close above the resistance band, so I closed at +60 and have reversed short at 212.85.

I'm holding for just a bit longer... yes, it never closed about that last resistance band, but I'd like to wait just a tad longer to see if there's any follow-through. My stop is at b/e.

One thing I have noticed is that when the dollar is the dominant mover, the cross pairs tend to go sideways. I don't know why... maybe people tend to fixate on what's moving as opposed to those that aren't?

I've taken a sound little beating, to be sure. But I have been using half the normal size during this time as I get more familiar with this particular method of playing. The strategy itself seems sound to me (Wasp's performance is evidence enough) and fits my methods almost like a glove. I've been over-analyzing on the lower time-frames, which has been my downfall thus far. Like Wasp says... the market isn't behaving according to the statistical norms, which dulls the edge somewhat. I suspect things won't begin to revert back to something more normal until after this week is done. NFP last week and rate decisions galore this week will probably keep many of the big players side-lined.

That probably won't happen until after the rate decision tomorrow.

If $/yen would just follow through, it would be helpful (if they'd sell yen that is rather than just buy dollar).

Failure to break the 30-min inside bar would confirm your thinking.

Alright... last attempt here... closed for -14 and long from 212.25 again. Let's ignore the short-term drivel.

I don't like what I'm seeing. Price has been strongly rejected when above 20 and is now being resisted below 20... I've scratched (AGAIN!) for -23 and am short at 212.09.

These bloody retraces are driving me nuts! That 20 zone isn't offering much resistance anymore, Wasp.

Agreed. I'm out at -40 and long at 212.31.

I neglected to mention I scratched for -21 and I'm short again from 212.04. What I thought would be resistance around 211.60 (roughly the 61% fib) was too weak. Should have known.

Wasp, congrats on another nice run! Well done indeed.

This has been a butch of a ride... moved stop up to 92 to avoid FOMC news spike and associated "noise." Still short from 47.

Ok, let's try this one more time from a slightly better location... short from 211.47, stop at 68.