cowpip

That daily candle still looks bearish. Another retest of the lows (or lower) may be in order?

Thanks firewalker. I appreciate that. Now if I could just get consistent in this strat like Wasp does... it's helping not looking at the charts. No fiddling.

Closed for +115. Short GJ @ 194.10.

I'm still long. Kicking myself that I wasn't awake to take the bounces off of S/R from 194.25 to 193.18... THAT would have been nice (did you manage to do that?). But I only looked every 4-hours and each time I looked it was hugging 193.18/60 and the candles still looked bullish to me. So I held - and thus far, I'm glad I have. It's now cleared and closed above 194.25 support at that last 4-hour close, so I'm still holding this long position. We'll see what happens near 195.08. I'd like to see this ride up to 197.70 and close that gap, but it'll probably zig-zag between 195.08 or 195.75 and 194.25 before that happens. So maybe I'll ride it up and down a bit, as you like to do. Wait and see what price tells me. You've probably made a nice profit today, huh Wasp?

One more time?... Long GJ @ 192.95

That's what I would like to see as well. Anyone want a dead dog? (just kidding...). I'm ok with it... I'll also look for a retest of 193... I have my support line at 193.18, but would prefer a drop just below there to enter. I'd like my stop ideally to be below 192.50 - just in case this thing has the legs to retest the lows.

Accidentally closed for +50... Word to the wise: don't leave your laptop down where your dogs can walk on it! Now... where'd I put my gun, mutt!!! EDIT: Actually, +47... grrr!

Actually, it's proven as fairly reliable support all the way back to April 2004, with only a few excursions on the daily below it.

Three reasons - and all potentially wrong: 1. The move down seems too strong and rapid - you see these moves during reversals. But catching that falling knife can be wickedly difficult and dangerous, I admit. 2. That 193.18 to 192.50 zone has been an area of strong buying interest in the past. I'm gambling on the thought that it may bounce here. 3. The move has happened so quickly after the close of the daily candle (and a 4-hour bar - at least, on my charts) that it stands to reason it would form a quick tail wick before reversing back up to close the day as a hammer. This is precisely the type of price action I would look for on a larger daily-time-scale reversal. So I'm betting this is a reversal, but I could easily get taken out if I haven't timed this right. I hate catching these types of falling knives, but the risk to reward seems... attractive.

I hope you're wrong, firewalker! 193.18/192.50 has been a strong buying zone all the way back to 2005. We shall see. This sucker seems to be in the mood for breaking strong support levels. You may well be right. EDIT: The drop seems too swift. I often see these strong sudden down moves to mark big reversals. Again, we shall see...

Closed for +167. Long GJ @ 192.95. This could be a quick loss. It's dropping like a rocket in reverse.

I'll bet he reversed (short) up around 195.10 after it failed to run higher. But he may be holding, hoping price will attack the 195.75 level before reversing. SOMETIME, I expect that gap to be filled. But I'd like to see price attempt to break 193.20 first (near the low of March). But it wouldn't surprise me at all to see price run up and tag 197.70 before retreating back down - just to give the lazy holidaying U.S. folks an entry.

Short @ 195.07 When I go back in time, 195.08 reacts very nicely as an S&R line. Current price action (to me) suggests a short after failing to penetrate at the last 4-hour bar is justified here. But heaven forbid if anyone is following my lead. I obviously have a ways to go yet.

Thanks for that. Having it marked there certainly would have changed how I would have played it. Sigh...

Stopped for -60. Wasp, where the crap is your support line around 194.30/50? I had mine marked at 194.52, which perfectly justified shorts (except for the fact that it had traveled so far last night), but the current reaction has it at 34. This is tickin' me off. Either I can't see the support line properly because you have to go so bloody far back in time, or it's creating new S&R as it goes lower now?

Short @ 194.43, although this has already moved so far, I'm not sure how much to trust the last formed 4-hour candle.

Thanks. Out for -65.

Hmmm.... what do you do when price precisely matche the S/R level?... Stopped for -12 and reversed long GJ @ 195.78

Short GJ @ 195.66

Wasp, do you handle large gaps (such as today's almost 200 pip gap on GJ) any differently than normal price action would dictate on the 4-hour charts?

You're probably right. I'll be hauling furniture around most likely, huh? :doh:

Yip... you are, of course, absolutely correct. And yes, my wife is going to keep me busy for 3 hours and 55 minutes of each 4-hour block, commencing this next week (how she's going to do this, I have no clue - but my imagination is already in overdrive ). All that's really (I think) all that is needed is about 5 minutes to examine the situation and then pull the trigger (or not) at the 4-hour mark. Excellent advice, Wasp. Thanks again.

I should note that had I followed the strat as shown in the chart above, the total pippage earned would have been over 600 pips. Yes, I know that hindsight is 20-20, and it's hard to produce a chart of what you think you would have done based on what you already know - but I honestly tried to construct the chart above based on what I would have seen at the end of each 4-hour candle, rather than what I know happened. I believe an earnings of more than 600 pips really was possible last week. And that's why I'm still working this strat hard. The strat isn't at fault here. It's my own failure to remain disciplined - or rather, my own failure to accept the strat as reliable. That's changing. EDIT: PS: Disregard the 14-ema, the bollinger bands and the RSI indicator above. I'm not using them at all with this strat. My own personal strat uses them, but not the one I'm trying to master here.

Here's a chart of how I SHOULD have performed last week. I made some discoveries in my analysis. First, I significantly over-traded last week. Seriously overtraded. By almost a factor of 3! Tsk tsk.... Second, I'm paying WAY too much time looking at the 30-min charts and (worse still) reacting to what I see there. Third, I will do better if I just wait until the next 4-hour candle closes if my stop is hit, rather than SARing. I haven't figured out how to SAR and still retain a good decent entry level. That means I won't have alarms set when my stops are hit. Only when my targets are reached (which are usually two S/R levels below my entry - or the S/R level that is closest to the daily range) and a few minutes before the start of each 4-hour period. If my stops are hit, so be it. I'll reassess at a later time. As the chart attached shows, if I would have played things according to how I saw them on the 4-hour charts (and only the 4-hour charts), life would have been very very sweet last week. Checks are good trades, X's are stop-loss trades. Arrows are entries. For long trades, the head of the arrow marks the entry location. For short trades, the butt of the arrow marks the entry location. Knowing this, it's time to reload and start demonstrating the true power behind this strat next week. It's all about discipline and finding the right groove. That's what this discovery process is all about.

Out at b/e. What a week. I'm done.