HAKUNA

From what I understand of taylor and that Frank's article, yesterday was a buy day leading to buying excess, following this any gap down which does not get filled within 15-30min, needs selling into , that would be first trade and then we look for high violation - which has happened to again short (ie. sell day setups) IMO,

richbois, Can you take from Monday of this week and go through the cycle you talk about, What day is today, in that 10day cycle and depending on that what can be expected(know we always deal in probabiities) price action wise for thursday and friday. Am still trying to get my head around this 3day and 10day cycles:)

No problems, perhaps you can engage in the scenario setups requested in my post.

WHAT IS TVGR In simple language, does that mean sell off into Thursday, what is the scenario for test, probable test of high/low of Tuesday, as I type, ES has gone down to 890, so possible gap down on opening, hence on a practical level what setups to expect via Taylor method and what action would you take.

What is TVGR o.k what is the possible scenario for today, Wednesday 17th Dec 2008, It would be useful to post prior to todays open.

This is what I was looking for, today would be a perfect example, I for one had no idea what was going to be in the FOMC announcement, however , from a 1min chart of ESmini, I had an entry 2.30-2.31 around 891, now those perhaps with inside knowledge could have positioned around say 860 or early this morning at 880. It would certainly be educational if somebody in here can put a trade taken with that prior knowledge indicating entry etc. after all the theoritical debate we have had on all kinds of different players in the game.

1. A short on the first dot would not be a huge reward/risk type of trade, target was the upper level 80 of the range in June. 2. This would perhaps be in keeping with Db’s post elsewhere, with a very tight stop 3. The third appears much better as there is effort /selling pressure as price approach the upper trend line 4. Shorting on this bulge again would in line with what BB has shown on post 11. 5. first there is an effort via increased vol, but price hit resistance, no result, 6. buyers again try but this time without much gusto, ideal short with a tight stop 7. lots of vol, prices unable to get past the resistance of 65, again opportunity for a short with tight stop loss. 8. the short around 60 would have been exited or scaled out on vol spikes at 45 and 40 9. probably would have gone for a long here, seeing that prices have fallen over 40pts, although the trend is still down. 10. after getting stopped out a new trendline as per the first BB post would encourage a short this time with a tight stop

Have to add that all this would not be strictly keeping with wyckoff's trend following method.

Am pretty comfortable with what I have learnt on your forum Db and in the blog, great info. examples BB gave , how the same principles operate after 100yrs on intraday small time frame charts. Don't have 5sec/TD facility like you at present, minimum just 1min, but can understand your tactics, e.g your short on 12th Friday around 1208 would have provided you with a tight stop loss, whereas I would have entered on the bar with the upper tail, late entry around 1205.75 and then over 3pt stop. will then have to take the heat of the next bar though.whereas you could move to breakeven and be still in the trade. I also see your reasons for exit at 1190 , congestion following a vol spike down bar. From what I have learnt from you posts, is that after breaking 1190 vol decreases and prices hold around above 1187, less selling pressure and then when vol does come in (effort) at , think 13.56 prices rise suggesting demand greater than supply, hence a long would have been justified.

My 2 cents: 1. first dot: prices rise on high vol , followed by effort to go up, but vol is low. When vol. does come in, prices fall. But the range narrows, does not too good for a short. 2. good for scalp, target support of 52, LSL, justification: high vol (effort) at the peak, 56, prices close lower(no result) 3. Another attempt at 56, but not much effort, and when effort is made (increase in vol), no result via move to higher prices, sellers then have little difficulty pushing prices down, infact vol increases, so not a bad short, again target 52. 4. Increasing vol at 50 is unable to push prices down, support building, also resting from support at Dot 1, then vol dries up, buyers have little difficulty pushing prices up, breakout of the range with somewhat feeble vol (not much effort), may be considered as fake breakout as a reason to short, but there is lack of selling pressure, low vol plus price are now going down, --warning sign. 5. This would a better exit point for a long trade taken after a retracement following the breakout rather than a shorting opportunity, due to previous resistance on the left at 56.-58 6. This is not a bad short really, prices rise to 58(testing resistance level) on low vol, again no effort, better trade via the 5th bar after the dot, at 56 which has a tail and closes on the low, selling pressure, target once again 50, as range is forming between 50-58 7. Bounced of support at 50, suppose justification for going short at 54 on a narrow range bar with very low vol, can be viewed ast as lack of buying pressure. And in view of 3 jabs at 58 plus prices unable to rise above midpoint of range, in realtime guess this would be the action but then as price approach 50 vol increase, there is effort but prices once again hold, hence have to bail out. 8. after a rise of 16 pts, retracement can be expected , hence a short at dot 8 below those 2 narrow bars , target that shakeout bar , early march. 9. This is a lower high on less vol, trendline broken , also LSL broken achieving previous target for trade 8. so short should be justified. But careful monitoring once again shows up effort to go down on high vol, followed by price holding on low vol, selling pressure diminishing and then prices able to rise on low vol. 10. More effort via increasing vol, demand increasing, gets nearer and slightly above 70, prices not making much progress, selling pressure increasing. Justified to short with the target as a test of previous resistance at 66.

Appreciate your comments, you are right about mixing up too many approaches, more I read on Wyckoff, more it makes sense. As for that creek thing, I thought OAC was being sarcastic on my previous post and on Wyckoff being mentioned a few times. Normally he is anti-Wyckoff, , I give up.

Thanks Atto, FW, I was beginning to feel dumb in Steve's thread, at first thought may be I am missing something deep in this event trading business, but from what I have learnt on VSA (without jargon ofcourse as Db and Bearbull always point out:) BB certainly does not beat around the bush, had a real go at steve) and on wyckoff forum, just could not get my head around how anybody big or small get into the market and not affect price and volume. Was told to look at 81min chart (5bars per day, 405minute US Open) and volume , came back and presented my take, asked a simple question, is this correct or not. if not, could steve, his team or anybody else put up a chart of one of their own realtime trade based on event trading (with their prior knowledge of any forthcoming news, reports etc), show an entry, so that I could then look at the same chart and see if I could have recognised or not that entry without that knowledge. To my mind, this was sound logic, but when Kiwi, Brownsfan, OAC etc came in, all about experience, reading books, briefing com, cbot, websites etc doubts crept in, perhaps I have to look outside the box, sort of lateral thinking, pondered over it, but still could not escape the logic staring in my face. hence decided to call it a day. Mere mention of Wyckoff seems to make some jump up in agony as if somebody has inserted a hot rod up the backside, don't quite understand that, thought trading was all about having a flexible mindset, prepared to look at anything with a logical mind. Now I see OAC has put up: How to draw a creek? this got to be some Zen type teaching which is going over my head. wish folks would provide some straight answers to some straight questions for a change.

elovemer, like Eiger I am also interested in taylor method, have tried to get that thread going by requesting those who know the method to start some form of analysis of probable price action for the next day based on what has gone before in the past few days. This has unfortunately not happened although this is a systematic way to go. To make any sense of the method, it has to be done that way, I am not sure what the chart on your post means. perhaps you can attach some comments .

guys, I have already thanked and shown appreciation for the info. on this thread. As for looking for fast food or silver platter, that is quite unfair. I am not exactly a novice, have been doing my homework for a few years now. Gone through most books including Master the markets, Market Maker's edge by Josh Lukeman, classic work of Gary Smith "How I trade for a living" now he was really good at reading reports and market internals. I also now understand price and its relationship to volume (VSA first and recently some of Wyckoff). Have some working strategies and setups and was keen to see for myself if reading P/V gave me early signs of what those in the know were up to. i.e whether or not it would be possible to recognize that activity in realtime without the benefit of that knowledge Was told to look at past few weeks activity as of 11/20 on 81min chart plus vol, did just that, put up my interpretation of what I saw and asked if I was on the right track or not. Post 194: “Steve, I see your logic now, o.k 81minute chart on ES (RTH), presume this is because there are 405 minutes of trading and therefore 5 bars per day. When you say volume ramps up in the past week, does this money professional money marked up the price by buying and were then unloading to the public on the past 3 narrow range days as the highest vol (dec 1-8) came in on the 9th and prices did not go up much, then even more vol on the 11th, but no cigar, ie. distribution As for today, reports came out at 10a.m, prices drifted down somewhat, then up again above the support S1 (pivot number of RTH you use, incidentally the lift off was from S1 at 9.30a.m), prices struggled at resistance of yesterdays low 870 and are now once again at 860., so how are we to read the effect of the reports and how did the pro. take advantage here. would appreciate your comments” To me this is the logical way to learn, which part of this appears as looking for a silver platter or fast food. But now we are talking about concepts and to go away to figure out strategies and investigate CBOT liquidity database. And all I asked was a single example of a trade taken in realtime by anyone here as of 11/20(positioning of the people in the know) which could not have been read from the chart without this knowledge. If you reckon that is asking too much, that I guess I have to apologise. Once again thanks

I thought the major part of this thread deals with this professionals and was just making an attempt to understand, thinking it might provide an edge. It may be fascinating in theory but I am interested in the realtime and there is no question of hope or bias. I was asked to look at a 81min chart and note the rise in vol as prices went up. This action I was told was due to people in the know who had figured out all the news, events, report before it was in public domain. I did that and came back with my take and requested if it was correct or not. If I am wrong, then to show a chart pointing out the locations of entries of a realtime trade as firewalker sugggested, of pros/insiders whatever you like to call them, or trades taken by those on this thread with that kind of info. I would then go back and look at the chart and see for myself if I could have figured out that entry from what I have learnt on price/vol via VSA/Wyckoff etc. If not then there would be clear demonstration that without this knowledge, early entry cannot be gained in the market, don't understand why this simple question appears to be complicated.

With due respect, there is enough info. about big and small players , I have Tom Williams book and it is there also. I use VSA and was interested in finding out if I could recognise or not any entry point of those who positioned themselves with prior knowledge of news or reports by using what I know of VSA method. All I was looking for was a recent example , I presented analysis based on that and asked for comments but was told to read another book.

As somebody already pointed out, the only natural born citizens are the so called "red indians", everybody is just a descendent of some immigrant:)

o.k see your execution via 1min, and the opportunities, and understand the general comments on various players, my question was regarding the previous comments made for the past week, re. big players positioning themselves, was what I observed on the 81min chart correct or not. also how did todays reports affect the prices and how did the pros position themselves prior to that.

tawe, pretty cool, 35 pts sound pretty good to me, where was your stop, how many points. you had then fib level plus the daily S1pivot to work from. Say which datafeed yu using, on my 7min charts , mine looks somewhat different via esignal feed.

Steve, I see your logic now, o.k 81minute chart on ES (RTH), presume this is because there are 405 minutes of trading and therefore 5 bars per day. When you say volume ramps up in the past week, does this money professional money marked up the price by buying and were then unloading to the public on the past 3 narrow range days as the highest vol (dec 1-8) came in on the 9th and prices did not go up much, then even more vol on the 11th, but no cigar, ie. distribution As for today, reports came out at 10a.m, prices drifted down somewhat, then up again above the support S1 (pivot number of RTH you use, incidentally the lift off was from S1 at 9.30a.m), prices struggled at resistance of yesterdays low 870 and are now once again at 860., so how are we to read the effect of the reports and how did the pro. take advantage here. would appreciate your comments

Contact TG support: darrenh@tradeguider.com , tel: 877 392 3895, I had it for trial, gave problems then, glitches, they have been promising to fix them for past 5years, believe an upgrade is due in Jan 09, you should get it without charge, again check with them.

Thanks Steve, I am starting to understand what you have trying to point out regarding news and how those who are privy to that use to their advantage.

Guys Eiger, BB, tawe, this blending is brilliant stuff. No reason in this day and age to get wedded to one way of looking at the market, whatever that blends and provides extra edge IMO is worth pursuing. BB, I also tried to get some answers on the Taylor thread, but nobody seems to bother to follow up, apparently some with knowledge of the method come in , make general comments and when requested to follow up taking a day a time, silence. wonder why?, is it that it is easier to read after the event? for although the method anticipates possible scenarios, there is no way of knowing when those turns or high made first or low made first are going to happen. But as Linda Raschke is using it to her advantage, there must be something in it.

Steve, Very interesting On this link: http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/EconodayFrame.asp there is wholesale report etc, but these are not released before their alloted time, or are they known to the insiders. you mentioned the home sales for yesterday, was this info. known to some, like your team for example prior to release. Today once again the market turned at 10a.m EST and shot up, can you explain that in context of any report. Thanks

Very interesting indeed, have been watching ES and NZ today, Naz was leading first around 10a.m EST, then the role reversed between 10.15-10.45