VILLAFILLER

I have something else, from last night, that's interesting - I'd like to know people's opinion.. Yesterday morning there seemed to be a nice, neat 5 wave drop forming on the 15 min...which I was looking to to form THE bottom of this drop (see attached) All seemed to be going by the book until the US unemplyment figure which skewed (read screwed) my 4th and pushed it into the territory of 1...however the price then turned and travelled the same distance it should have in an ideal, EW 5th without the ue number... Not sure if I'm explaining myself properly...it seems like we had news (in the direction of the imminent turn) that turned a text-book 5 into a rule-breaking 5 (4 into territory of 1) with a truncated 5th (truncated by the amount of the ue 'displacement'). And then we got the anticipated turn... Really just a point of discussion rather than seriously proposing EW rules could break down when a turn 3 or 4 degrees higher is due VR

In at 14088 based on equality of my 1st wave drop from the 26th Nov and this (my fifth), nice 5-wave drop yesterday Existing level at 86 Divergence on 1hr momentum 1hr volumes suggest last low was a fifth 61.8% retracement of this mornings small TF rally But hey...been wrong all this week so far:doh: VR

Sure ...I've never actually followed a diagonal to completion...just grabbing for a method of finding a bottom to what I see (as well) as the end of the 5th of the drop that started at the end of November. VR

Having thought we were at the end of a key 5th wave I'm going to put out there the possibility that what I took to be a complete 5th was actually only the 'a' of an ending diagonal triangle on the 15min chart - if we see 3 waves up to a 'd' then I'll be looking for confirmation of an 'e' and the possibility of a long VR Apologies for the duplication - for the sake of not wasting it...an updated chart

Having thought we were at the end of a key 5th wave I'm going to put out there the possibility that what I took to be a complete 5th was actually only the 'a' of an ending diagonal triangle on the 15min chart - if we see 3 waves up to a 'd' then I'll be looking for confirmation of an 'e' and the possibility of a long VR

Just gone long here based on 168% of my near-term A 5 waves down previous level @ 14372 Momentum on 4hr, 1hr & 15min oversold Fingers crossed VR

Hi...I went short @ 14542..missed my squaring-up target at 14440 but added to the short at 14504. Attached my long-term count & short-term (tempted to buy back my two shorts @ 14450) & buy into a wave 2 opportunity tomorrow morning rather than wait for a wave 1 bounce this evening. VR

Hi...thanks for the chart I'm switching my primary to this (a complete 5 down)....barring an obvious contradiction...I'll be willing to see a deeper dip on my near-term iv than 14430, but I don't think this correction has completed yet. Going to be holding this short but will be seeing if my planets align for a speculative long around 14440 But then again, I've been wrong all this week ...this drop today just doesn't seem to be a 3rd of reversal VR

Hi TTM, Is it possible to post a chart with this?...I'm short around the same level as you but this is not exactly flying Thanks, VR

Hi, It may be hard to believe, but I do more than sitting here staring at charts - anyway I have another alternate (and I don't consider this anything more than something to have stored away as a standby)... ...The 3-wave count today to 14579 has been bothering me and the only way I can think of to explain it within Elliott is (another) expanding flat... It makes little difference in the short-term, since it still calls for a 5-wave drop off today's high but, if correct, means that any downside break could be a bear-trap. - 162% of my higher TF 'A' off 'B' 14595 - 38.2% retracement of i-iii @ 14430 - 162% of my near-term 'a' off todays high hits previous resistance @14430 - 100% of 'i' off 14430 hits 14585 It does suggest a flat minor 5th @ 14430 and is kind of curve-fitting my need to see 14585/14600 but ...I really don't like todays 3-wave move :doh: Explain to me where I'm wrong and I can forget it and move on VR

I was out for the day so made on the long from 14465 on what I took to be c-d but caught a piano on the short order @ 14535. Got home and realised I missed the boat on the short we've been talking about for a week (having assumed I had time to get back for it)...but I will be paying close attention to the shoulder you mention at 45 (though I'm a little worried that the action today was on 3 waves rather than 5) VR

Morning, My latest offering for the next two days - the trouble with a 4th wave triangle is you can't be sure about it until it's virtually over... ...I see the orthodox end of the minor 3rd @ 14532, then an a, b & c in 3 waves each Yesterday I misread 'a' as the complete 4 but still managed to make some - if the theory holds then will look to buy an 'e' throwover with the usual confirmations. If it does end up being a 4th triangle then it would add weight to the theory of a final 5th wave rally followed by a major reversal VR just bot half a position within 10pts of my 'c' low

Hi.... I sold 14500 into what I read as c of 2...squared up and went long at 14470 for what I hope to be a minor 3 of 5 up near 14585... Best laid plans etc, etc....looking for new highs above 14522 VR

Hi TTM, I have an alternate which I'd like to hear your thoughts on.... ...it could call for a turn soon with my recent ABC being an expanded flat - 162% of A ends @014600 and coincides with 100% of i off iv plus the reasons @ 14585 VR

Reluctant to label this on the 15min ...but if it walks like a duck & quacks like a duck... This could be a diagonal triangle ending the 3rd wave...will be paying close attention to a possible e throwover and the chance to short...though the downside seems limited if the primary count is still good Anyway...moving the stop to just below my b Even worse!...Sleepy Monday morning in US with no figures....I was hoping to get a chance to cash in 80pts but it increasingly looks like being stopped out for peanuts

I was already crashed out by the time Asia opened (3 mnth old twins to help with)...but in the spirit of collaboration, this morning I bot a cheap 10pt stop @ 14485 on the test of your wave one resistance turned support level - working well for me at the moment, thanks - I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have labeled last week a 1, 2 without this discussion. If we see new highs past 14533 I'll move to break even and look to 80/85 for a possible turn. VR

Hi, My primary read has a 3-wave breakdown from the 26th November $ turn...though will be open to this being a complete 5 At the moment my primary count of an ABC 4th wave correction hasn't been negated on my plan (though it's on pretty shaky ground - I didn't like the short duration of the C & Friday afternoon's action could still be a i & ii of 3 of 5 while 14448 holds). I'm hoping that the asian session will help with the count one way or another... ...a break of 14448 (and subsequent 14485) will clarify that this is a larger C-wave move up. Although, I'm not all that comfortable with an extended 5-wave (a break of 14500 will be extended on both price and time based on wave A). - If we see that then I will be paying close attention to 14585 for a possible short Existing support & resistance 38.2% of the 1-3 breakdown 61.8% of wave 3 162% of TTM's wave 1 off Friday's low to try and pick up a buy @14500 to what I see as a good level for the short into wave 5 (possibly a 3, if the move down to 14216 was indeed a complete 5) at 14670 Existing support & resistance level The level of Wave 1 12/09/09 50% of the 1-3 breakdown 162% of A off B (shaky for a 5-3-5 correction, but C would be extended) 78.6% of wave 3 On the other hand, if price fails to break 14448 and significantly overlaps back into Friday's territory I'll start to think that I got squeezed out of my 14439 short cheaply Watch this space for me to have to eat my words on these levels! VR

Very nice work!...Good end to the week Non-farm cost me 100pts but still got out with a reasonable profit...shutting down now...have a good one.

That put paid to my short...had high hopes for a while Back to sitting back and waiting for a count to show up again

Right...going to stick my neck out again for everyone's consideration... Should my pre-holidays assumption of a € bottom at 14216 being a 3-wave (possibly a 5) down be correct & monday's rally was actually a C then I have a possible level at 14439 Today's action looks to be 3 waves with iv of c in play at the moment 14439 ... 78.6% retracement of yesterday's drop 100% of my a wave today off b previous resistance As usual, for me, I'll be looking for momentum confirmation & ideally a divergence - clearly a break of 14485 will negate this. VR

Morning, My idea got nixed pretty quickly last night Going to have to wait out for the counts to resolve but it's tempting to take a cheap long down here if we see a retest of the support - might think about it if there's a divergence. VR

Hi, If the recent high holds (my b) then I like 14372 for a 100pt long trade, targeting above the 5 @14483 - will be looking for a momentum confirmation and a bounce before entering 50% retracement of yesterday's 5-wave rally 100% of a previous S&R level VR

Happy New Year TTM & All, As per my pre-Xmas count I shorted €/$ @ 14410 the Monday after Xmas but got stopped out flat and couldn't see an obvious count after that so spent the time with the kids:) Yesterday I had a 5-count up but the overnight rally made me re-label it this morning. Looking for an obvious 3-wave correction to go long but doing nothing unless it's really clear VR

TMT, I lied ! - Took another look tonight... ... between 14395/14415 Got a 38% retracement on my count down from 14661 previous wave 4 level 162% of (a) off bottom of an expanded (b) alternation of the corrections on my 5-wave c plus a big figure Left an order...not going to be there if it hits to check momentum but happy to take a 20pt punt for a 200pt swing VR

I meant to say ...great job on the 780pts...just looked at the € chart with the new low and I'm definitely going to have to wait for things to work themselves out before jumping in...Christmas with the family instead of having the cell receiving alerts all the time!