VILLAFILLER

The triangle count marches on... The anticipated resistance before 696 put my primary count (white) wave 'd' ending at 14441 & the 4th wave of C ending at 14103 with the 1st of an impulsive rally (possibly) complete. Any rally in an expected 5th wave of C should move beyond 14940 but, by my count, be capped by 15144 The alternate (red label 'd' / iv)has the 'd' possibly complete this week at the recent 14577 high. Either of these would call for a 3 wave decline before an impulsive rally - the primary calls for longs ahead of 14103 and the secondary before 14073 Relegated to last place is the strongly bearish 3rd of a 3rd count (purple) which has not yet been disproved but recent declines have hardly been breathtaking.

Hi forexfilms...the lack of new lows (despite the lack of Greek rescue package, possible Italian downgrade, Juncker comments etc) makes me tend to agree that we're not yet looking at impulsive drops in EUR/$. Added to this the need for a 4th in the C up from 12875 and I'm leaning towards a triangle - d in progress. I believe the overlap yesterday (making lows below 14222) on the 1hr makes the prospect of an impulsive rally off 14074 less likely. The triangle count, in white, has critical resistance @ 14696 ...above this would definitely support your more strongly bullish count. On the other hand below 14073 would put the immediatley bearish alt, in purple, back in the primary spot. Both my primary triangle and alt call for resistance below 696 so will be looking for an entry ahead of that. Tks, VF

Obviously, didn't get my order filled to go long €/$ @ 14202 but the expanded flat 2nd that I was basing that decision on still looks good. If the expanded flat is the way to go then it looks to be aiming for the previously mentioned 14494/500 level where the 50% retracement, big figure and head & shoulders all lie. Down on the 5min it looks like we're in a 4th of 5 (of c of the expanded flat) A new high above 14487 with divergent momentum on both 1hr and 5min would make me look to sell € with a target below 13970. Andy

It's been a long time since I posted...so here goes... While 13861 remains unbroken it's premature to get really bullish USD vs EUR but difficult to ignore the impulsive drop from 14940. My daily and hourly counts are attached...I'm swaying towards the alternate count in red on the daily - The white labelled 2/3/3 wave hadn't hit a fib level - The white i/3/3/3 low looks to be in 3 waves - The move off the 13970 low looks like a 5-wave move in progress - The hourly alt count supports this...it's currently looking like a memorial day triangle (i.e. terminal) The alt - 4th of c of an expanded-flat 2nd - puts a nice support level @ 14200 where a/4=c/4 with previous S&R at that level. The daily chart has 38% @ 14390 but 50% @ 14500 looks like a nice short opportunity where there's a head & shoulders, big figure & previously actioned S&R. Order in at 14202...see what the morning brings 2210GMT....While it stays below 93 the triangle is valid

My €/$ 1hr counts...Haven't had absolute evidence to abandon the USD bottom in place @14159...but it looks increasingly unlikely:)...therefore labelled as my alternate in red. I was long on the 5-wave advance which I have had to amend as 'c' of 'B' in my primary but got caught out going long against a 3-wave drop to 13916. No key fib ratio @ 13811 but a nice coincidence of the 4hr channel support and the A=C of the current bearish move All this with the background of the confirmed 3-wave move off the 14159 recent high Tks, Andy

Thanks for the reply...I actually had the equivalent order in overnight but in AUD/$ since it looked more likely to get to my counted critical support @9889...squared it out already for 90pts As it turned out I could have left the same order in €uro against 14001 but, last night, it seemed less likely to be filled and I didn't want to be overly $ exposed in my sleep. Got stung on $/JPY tho...got filled today on a long against the 5-wave(15min) rally but marginally stopped (0.8pts!) in what now has to be counted as a flat. Andy

Morning, Got a potentially crucial top coming €/$ and a great rule based upper limit on how far it can go over the next day or two based on my primary count. In my primary, wave 3 is shorter than 1 - therefore 5 must end no higher than 14218 My alternate (based on the internals on the 15min) could put the top of 1 @ 13980 with an expanded flat 2nd...in which case there's no such upper limit. Going to be going short against 14218 if it gets close, or short on any 5-down/3-up/overlap-c on the lower timeframes after any 5-wave move off 14008. Cheers, Andy

"Sell in May and go away" Selling was definitely a good idea €/$ has moved up off 12144 (incidentally...that is right around the 50% of the € 8 yr rally Oct 2000-July 2008) in 5 waves. The internals of my labelled 3 & 5 are also in 5. Got to be viewed as an A of a correction or the 1st wave of something larger...either way it seems to be retracing somewhat today and is currently 180pts off the high in a single wave - right around 38% of this weeks rally. On this scale it should be worthwhile looking to sell into the lower degree C and then look to go long for the proposed higher C (or even what could turn out to be a 3rd). Difficult to pin down likely levels until we get a B some time today...back to the previous 4th would dictate the long position to be around 12300. VF

Hi, Action hasn't exactly supported the idea that the USD rally is complete...everything still seems to be going sideways since mid March... I have another FX gap idea to toss out there for discussion... Monday 11 April €uro opened 90/100 pips higher than the Friday close, arguably on the back of a Greek deal. If you assume the opening gap from a week and a half ago 'skewed' the chart then it could be judged that a triangle is already complete and the final, 5th wave drop is already under way. I have no idea if this is a reasonable thing to suggest - if price rebounds from current levels, in 3 waves, reasonably deeply...i.e. @ 13590 and then impulsively drops it could still be interpreted as the end of the triangle or the 3rd wave of a drop already underway...perhaps it won't become evident until everything is over (if at all). Just an idea VR P.S. maxima ...personally, live - but not on a large account, if I can make myself an SV650 out of it by this time next year I'll be happy.

My attempt to make sense of the Easter €/$ action... I am sticking to the idea that the USD rally is over... I'll be looking to buy around 13440 I guess VR

Got a possibility here... Got a B-triangle currently breaking out on the 15min....gives A=C to previous support & resistance at 13433 a triangle implies a corrective move...no fib retracement line on level though VR

Hi TTM, I'm going with you on this...€$ has 5-down, a 10mnth low and (I think) a truncated final 5th on the 5th of the drop from November - daily MACD looks like a complete 5-wave drop. GBP looks to have had a larger degree truncated 5th but, as you say, has broken up through the channel line. Same story as € on the daily MACD If € goes on to make new lows, then a re-think but I think I'm going to switch to looking for opportunities on the upside. Most immediate place for me to look for a long with all the usual ratio/momentum support is just above 1.3383. VR

A broken Elliott rule...but... I still like the count on the 4 hour chart with a possible 4th wave top in place - despite the fact that 4 moved into the range of the 1st wave down...though, on the 4 hour chart, it didn't close a period in the range. On the 5min chart there is a pretty clear 5-wave drop off today's high (which failed to close above the point where the 5-wave rally included a 'shortest' 3rd). There is a possible head-and-shoulders on, with the right shoulder coinciding with the 61.8% retracement of today's 5-wave drop. If the potential short-term 2nd wave correction looks like a nice pattern to finish around that point, 1.3505, then I think a short into a possible 3rd of the final 5th of the final 5th since 26th November may be on the cards. AG

Hi, I'm going to short 13425/34 (If we see it) - If the end of 3 of 5 was at 13283 and the subsequent low was a b of an expanded flat 4 then 50%, 162 projection of a and S&R are all around that level. If 13267 was the end of 3 then a 62% projection of a coincides with 13434 (no decent retracement level though) Momentum is diverging on the 1 hour. VR

Hi, I'm considering the idea that 3 of 5 is complete (and shorter than 1 of 5)...I have 2 as being a flat therefore it's not unreasonable to think we are currently in a vanilla, zig-zag 4th - (Or it could be the first 3 waves of a 4th triangle, which would fit better with a trend about to finish). If this is the case then I like 13425/34 as a level to sell...tho it would be into a 5th of a 5th 50% retracement of 3rd wave 127% of my labelled a historical S/R Though resistance should be around 13390/400 - 38% & a=c If it does turn out that we are about to see the final sell-off of the drop from November then it would have a definite limit to it i.e. it cannot exceed 3 (+/- 285 pts)

As of this morning, € seems to be completing the B of a 2nd wave...if the near-term low holds at 1.3517 then a good level looks to be 1.3625/1.3640 - A 50% retracement of this weeks drop - Previous support & resistance levels - A=C of the correction that started yesterday VR

I never got to my levels above 13838 for the short, so missed it My count attached...going to sit out for today to wait for an expected 2nd wave up At the moment one level stands out to watch for the 2nd wave retracement - 50% retracement, previous support/resistance and the end of the preceding 4th are all between 1.3687/95 (plus the big-figure just above) If there is confirmation from the pattern of the 2nd wave correction and momentum looks overbought then it may be an opportunity to sell for the 3rd wave down...if the count is correct this should drop below the recent low of 1.3434 This is likely to have to wait until Monday to be clear though I'm off to do some painting & plastering VR

A final push beyond 1.3796 would confirm that the 4th wave correction of the drop since Nov has yet to finish. My current count of this overall picture is attached on the 4 hour chart - a lot of fibonnacci ratios are beginning to crowd around 1.3850/70 - a 162% projection of the B triangle at 1.3852 - a 162% projection of A at 1.3859 - Previous support & resistance between 1.3838/52 An alternate count puts the 1.3434 low (labelled as the e of B) as the end of the higher scale 3rd wave down, in which case... - the 38% retracement of the drop is at 1.3870 - 127% projection of A (on my primary count that would be a of C) at 1.3860 - 162% projection of B (b of C on my primary count) at 1.3860 - Clearly, the previous S&R still applies So, either C is a diagonal...where a e wave throwover would reach for previous key levels between 1.3838/60 or it's a zig-zag with a potential ending zone of 1.3838/70 Should price get up there is 5 waves (at the moment I have us in a possible 4 of the five - 15min chart attached) - and momentum looks good for a short, ideally with divergences) then there may be the opportunity to sell into the possible start of the higher degree 5th wave drop. Best laid plans...Fed rate statement may screw all of this

Hi, Been tough trying to keep short over the repeated failures of triangle counts - but I have Euro to turn a little higher - I like 13840/13870 based on a zig-zag A, triangle B & zig-zag C - 38% retracement of 3 Jan/12 Feb 3rd wave - Previous S&R levels - Neat flat correction with 162% of A (noted that a triangle B negates an expanded flat but nevertheless a coincidence of key Fib ratio) - 100% of the first wave of C - 162% projection of the B triangle Either way ...a drop now or a bit higher...things should have a direction for a while VR

The €/$ previous triangle count was negated by the failed follow-through on the 13440 break and the subsequent rally beyond the extent of the previously presumed wave e My new primary count of this assumed 4th is attached (in white) ...a straightforward zig-zag to A - a more complex, extended B and an expanded flat C An alternative interpretation (in red) has the a of the expanded flat being the complex component but both have the overall correction possibly complete at 13737 This is supported by what looks like a five wave rally to 13737 (top possibly defined by the rule of third waves not being shortest - 1hr chart attached. Additionally, there seemed to be an ending diagonal on the 5min on Wednesday - with the throwover carrying price to 737) and a subsequent 5-wave drop to the Friday low. If you work on this basis then we should expect a 2nd wave correcting to less than 13737... ...from current levels, with a possible a & b complete, there is a coincidence of fib ratios & previous support/resistance at 13691 - 100% of a off b - 78.6 retracement of previous 5 - 261.8% projection of b - previous minor support & major resistance from Thursday (and 11 & 23 Feb) Something else to watch is that this could also be interpreted as an harmonic pattern - 'The Bat', but that would call for the correction to reach the 88.6% retracement of the drop from 737 (around 13712) A drop below 13590 would call for a reassessment of the labelling of the assumed correction in play A move below 13528 could call for a recount (possibly a 4th wave still underway of a drop from 737) Above 737 means a re-examination of the overall count of the higher degree 4th in progress A possible short @ 13691 would have to be confirmed with momentum and, ideally, divergences. Happy hunting, VR

Hi, Thanks for the heads up about the count...I'm liking my alternate now with a 4th wave triangle to open the way for a 5th of the overall 3rd from Jan 13. Up until d wave o/n it still could have been an expanded flat to 13840 (I went long at 525 yesterday since both the flat and the triangle favoured the upside...so made some on the b of d. The primary count would anticipate e to reach 13600 (which is 61.8% of d), ideally sometime tomorrow afternoon GMT. Immediate target would be new lows, but the 162% projection of higher degree wave 1 puts it much lower. VF

Hi..on a bit of a break but trying to keep my hand in My count makes for an overall bearish view on €/$, however... Friday's overlap into territory above 530 does suggest, on both my primary (white) and alternate (red) that we are in a 4th of some degree. On the 4hr chart, the 3 waves up to 790 and then down to 440 offer the possibility that Friday's rally may be the start of a 5-wave C of an expanded flat. My primary calls for a higher degree 4th - in which case, this may be the c of A (which may infer a flat or triangle) My alternate puts this as C of a possibly completing smaller degree 4th with a 5th anticipated to complete the higher degree 3rd wave drop from Jan 13. My primary seems to have a more credible 'look' but only exceeds the 1:1 of wave 1 (Nov 26-Dec 22) marginally (an extended 5th to come?), whereas the alternate allows for further advances within the drop since Jan 13 before a significant correction. The result of all this is that my short-term view is bullish with possible resistance at 13700 (100% of 530/790 off 440) and a target for a 5-wave advance on the 4hr at 13840 (161.8% of 530/790 & previous 4th). So, if there is a short-term, corrective move down to 13530/10, I may take an intraday long (with all the usual checks and balances - momentum divergences/oversold / a=c within the drop etc). A break below 440 or an impulsive drop would negate the possible long & suggest a resumption of the drop with these 4ths still to come. All depends on the action on Monday. VF

Hi...been a while... I was thinking this weeks rise was the start of turn on the drop from 26th Nov but decided that it wasn't really acting impulsive enough... so... I sold the end of what seems to be an ABC Top of wave 2 of Friday's drop A=C C=161.8% projection of B B is a very neat expanding flat abc coincidence of the top of two channel lines Time will tell VR

Sure...I've found to my cost over the last week that it doesn't pay to to play for turns on the higher degrees...this does seem to be 5th of a fifth at least so should be good for some pts...certainlt not going to sit on the long if this starts to go sideways VR

Here's my counts for the long-term and today's business - finally the turn I've been looking for? VR Divergences on all timeframes from 5min to 4h on the stochastics and MACD Reversal candle patterns on 15min & 1hr Existing S&R level dating from Summer last year @ 14053 P.S. The move from 26th Nov could be a reversal or a correction...either way I favour the upside for intraday/week swings unless this gets negated