Eric Johnson

I agree that it is perplexing to find ways to really help people. I do think it is a very relevant process to consider as investors what we are a part of, and where it leads to. As for Alex, yes he is a bulldog on the front lines of disturbing media. I guess we all get to a level of rage as we discover the corruption in this world. The question is how do we really make a positive difference? Anyhow that site is a clearing house mostly for articles that others have written, and I check it to begin research; not conclusions. I think this forum is generally a forum of people that help others. It is a good place to extend the thought process out to being conscious of world wide opportunities and results. Ignorance can turn good intent, into misdirected suffering of the innocent. There are many that are effected by our decisions, that do not have the voice to reach the people of consciousness and power that move funds and policy. It is so easy to get distorted as a trader, like hoping the price of oil rises so my energy portfolio does well. Extended perspective is important to life success.

Hello, I am an American living in S.E. Asia for many years now. Especially in Cambodia, I have seen the work of good people and organizations rebuilding that country. Over here you get to see first hand very real outcomes of policy, economic crashes, political choices, and how fragile the balance of normal life is. I share the below article as a thoughtful piece so people can be aware of how foreign policy could affect others in the world. I don't know the validity of the ideas presented, although it is very well documented. http://www.infowars.com/obama-and-afghanistan-americas-drug-corrupted-war/ Anyhow for me it offers ideas about where some of the funding for the surge in the stock market comes from, and how bailouts may be just half the picture. Also I picked up the latest in the, "Rich Dad Poor Dad" series. It lays out the banking situation pretty well and offers some ideas to stay ahead of the game. http://www.conspiracyoftherich.com/

Hi thanks for that direction, I will work my way through more of it this week. I like the idea of a live recorded chat. Things like pair interactions are hard to study historically, when even a one minute bar hides what happened in real time. I can see you have been around the trading world. Is there a general post number area that deals with the idea of a currency leading and following another? Is there any general statements you could make pertaining to my questions?

Here is a version of the same trading system alert, but with the advantage of the alerts for [both the price crossing envelope, and/or the fantails crossing the envelope]; being shut off at a pip exceed level (adjustable). For example if your alert comes on at 14 pips, it will shut off at 16 pips. This is to reduce redundancy of the alert. It will also come on as it re-enters this zone. It is based on the close of the bar, so live it is fine, looking historically some bars (and fantail values) will not close in this range, so less recorded signals. The control is set by the properties MA envelope pip value (14), and the Margin pip value (16). Also with all the versions make sure the defaults are set to exponential MA in the properties. If you rely on the audio alerts without the arrows, make sure that you monitor the 2 possible alert sources, so you do not miss one source, behind the other sound. This is done via the params menu checklist. The sounds are editable also. The default ema has actually been set to 51, this was to not interfere with a possible 50 ema pre-existing, it also is adjustable. envelope cross fantail margin.zip

Hi, I am not sure why the last program upload did not go correctly, but here is the proper program for the above mentioned fantail envelope cross. A note about VT, if you want to edit a trading system, save the changes with the disc icon. You often have to remove (delete) the edited trading system from the chart, and readd the system from the top menu bar to see the changes take effect on the chart(s). Fantail_Envelope_cross___alert_zone__1__1_1.zip

Hi, I am not sure why the last program upload did not go correctly, but here is the proper program for the above mentioned fantail envelope cross. I think I caught it before anyone downloaded it. Fantail_Envelope_cross___alert_zone__1__1_1.zip

I did some coding work for VT, an alert system that allows for removing the fantail graphics and getting an (audio or arrow) alert when the magenta or black(mine white) outer lines both cross an ema envelope. I will post it here, but please see the coding forum to get the details for install as a trading system, and set up. It is based on my previous post. It also allows for price and ema envelope crossover alerts, and can show only the 2 outer lines of the fantail if you want. I am using for the AUD/USD cross 50ema envelope sizes at 18 and 36 pips. Anyhow just a thanks to Walter, Bemac, and the team for inspiring work, and bringing out the best in this brave new world. fan tail envelope alert.zip

Here is a new coding that I did to be able to remove the envelope, and/or the fantail lines; and get alerts instead. It is related on Walters Forex WVMA modified fantail version (really thanks to Bemac the coder). It is based on my own following observation and chart demo. I have been working with 50 ema envelopes (light blue dotted). This is showing a 15 pip offset from the 50 ema. I changed the black fantail line to white to see it. When the magenta and white lines BOTH expand beyond the width of the 15 pip envelope, it is a signal that the trend is greatly weakening and can soon pullback or reverse. This is shown with the red vertical lines. It is pretty consistent for the EUR/USD, and I use slightly bigger bands for other pairs. The small arrows (orange and blue) are part of the old audio alert system that I put together for VT that tell me when price closes (or crosses) near the 15 pip band. It has been modified for using only the magenta and white(black) band expansion as an exit readiness alert. By default the new added alert tells me when only the 2 mentioned fantail bands BOTH exceed the 14 (adjustable) pip envelope. It will also show pink arrows and audio alert. To turn these off right click on chart/ attached trading systems/ params enabled, and uncheck what you want for displays including the envelopes display. If you adjust the envelope size, also adjust the envelope alert margin for the price crossover. This turns off the price alerts at a set outer level. You may have to turn off the fantail alerts via the params settings when you are tired of listening to them. Install this via the trading system builder import function. Add it to a chart, as a trading system ONLY via the upper menu for add trading system. You can change the display colors and so on, by editing the trading system, rather that adjusting properties. Also if you want the entire 49 color fan tail you just need to add the outputs, they are still in the code. Remember to unzip the code, not open it with windows RAR. As usual, hope it is useful and let me know if you need further instructions. fan tail envelope alert.zip

Here is the concept I will share today. It is on the EUR/USD, but the concept applies to any chart. The question addressed is when can I consider a trend weakened to the point of reversal, major pullback, or sideways channel trading. The key being what is the next market condition to come? Especially when is it safe to consider using reversal or channel trades? This is the simple observation that I have made for the Euro. Chart =Blue band is 15 pips, green 30 pips, and white line =50ema. After a strong up trend, a pullback to the 21 pip level (or lower) below the 50 ema shows me that the trend has weakened. I then expect topping, reversal or sideways trading. It is inverse for a down trend. The chart is from Thursdays EUR/USD trading. There are probably better examples out there, but this is real world trading. The red lines attempt to show the general area where the price got into the 21 pip zone and the strength of the prevailing trend was weakened. It does look like Walter is sharing related concepts about the fantail/rainbow/WVMA on his "Futures scalps" thread on this forum. I am trying to build a few simple related strategies relating to his, and sharing many of my own. I did an example of a stock envelope set up. I like envelopes because when I am developing strategies, unlike a bollanger band, I have a set amount back to the base ema (50). I did the demo on Quote Tracker because it has free daily backfill of MSFT for many years, and has the VWMA available to try. I am not sure that these are exactly configured like the VT fantail modified model. Also for free daily backfills use the backfill connection Yahoo, or Tradingroom Australia historical. The idea of the envelopes is to find a range that price reverses on many times. I used an inner (blue) and outer (green) band. The values are %width 10 and % width 20. This translates to around $2.50 inner band offset, and $5.00 outer. The 50 EMA is white. I also set up a simple program to alert me when price crosses one of the bands. It looks like this and can be modified. if ABS(bar close-ema(50))>2.5 set color to Yellow and stop This lets me know when the price exceeds (or closes) above or below the blue band at the $2.50 level. It is code pasted into the complex expression paintbar editor. Anyhow the point is to slowly share some systems I have developed, and see if anyone has similar insights to add. I just coded a VT trader alert system to be able to hide the fantail lines and/or the envelope lines. Instead I can just get alerts when there is a fantail expansion, (or a price crosses an envelope), and be ready for a pullback. I will post it on the coding forum.

Hi, at the risk of posting somebody else's fine work I have attached the PDF's done by GJM describing the system by Walter in PDF form. This consolidates the posts and enlarges the charts. The first reason is to cultivate ideas for those that may not normally visit the Forex forum. Secondly Walter's Icon presentation, I found in reading today, goes along with my first touch ideas . Thirdly if not already done so, make these ideas applicable to a variety of markets. I know Walter runs multiple threads, so if there is one that is already handling this crossover maybe somebody could post it. Trend trading-part1.pdf Trend trading-part2.pdf

Since it is the long new years weekend I thought to introduce something I just discovered and I found very useful. It is from the forex forum, but the indicator was so useful that it was converted to many platforms including Trade station. This means that it can be converted to trade about anything. It is from Walters post, "Walter`s Forex "Trend Trades". It is a long post, with lots of teamwork and useful ideas. His basic idea is using a modified indicator to ride trends. For what I discovered, all the lines are not necessary, just the two outer ones. On my chart these are the magenta and white. I am watching their expansion and first touch of BOTH the outer indicator lines, touching (or exceeding) the blue dotted 50 ema 15 pip envelopes. When this happens very consistently the trend has weakened and is preparing for a pullback or reversal. These are specially modified lines from what I can tell. I just display the 2 outer lines, and I now have a very nice tool. So if the idea interests you check out the thread in the forex forum.

I think I finally came up with something interesting. Forgive me for skimming the long thread. Amazing team work by everybody. [before I read the whole thing I noticed how nice the original VT rainbow indicator worked as a adjustable (bb) squeeze indicator. I think I used 2 ema as the demo. Then I saw that somebody else got the same idea with the modified fan tail indicator. I also attached a copy of the modified indicator for VT being discussed, if you are looking for it.] So here is what I noticed. I have been working with 50 ema envelopes (light blue dotted). This is showing a 15 pip offset from the 50 ema. I changed the black fantail line to white to see it. When the magenta and white lines BOTH expand beyond the width of the 15 pip envelope, it is a signal that the trend is greatly weakening and can soon pullback or reverse. This is shown with the red vertical lines. It is pretty consistent for the EUR/USD, and I use slightly bigger bands for other pairs. The small arrows (orange and blue) are part of an audio alert system that I put together for VT that tell me when price closes (or crosses) near the 15 pip band. It could be modified for the magenta and white(black) band expansion as an exit readiness alert. The alert download is on the coding forum. It also has auto trade capacity. fantail_vma.zip

Hi, I am looking into a few new areas now, and wanted to see if anyone had some comments to share about related systems. First is finding a fairly reliable relationship between cross pairs following each other. I mostly trade 5 minute bars and am looking for 20-30 pip runs. Like on Thursday before New Years, the EUR/ USD lead with some dramatic moves, then about 30 seconds to a minute later the AUD/USD followed direction. Next is the EUR/JPY, it oscillates in a trading range of about 15-25 pips often. If I see it stretch a range, and the other pairs (AUD/USD, EUR/USD, or USD/JPY) are not moving quickly, then I fade the stretch of the range. The spread is wide, but it is paying on the demo. Thirdly the beauty of the USD/JPY to follow through on channel breakouts for 100 pip runs. These are all new ideas that I am demo trading, hope somebody has some insights. I have been posting some of my used strategies on the technical trading thread, and will update it with some of my hourly bar swing trade methods in the future.

While on the subject of rates, I will add the following. To be clear on the previous post the EUR/USD spread varies from about .8 pip to 1.5 pip. MB Trading is a direct ECN so if you want to see what a real market spread should be, the demo is free with a spread tracker, or their website has streaming quotes. The demo is a bit buggy for trading hours and order tracking recently. The live platform is much better, although the live charting can crash the platform.. I like to play my demo account between real trades. Many brokers just have a fixed spread of 2 to 5 pips. With a fixed spread you cannot beat the spread with a limit order, I think. Some shady operators seemed to charge the spread on entry and on exit of the trade. With MB you get in and are negative the spread, but get what you see for P/L on the exit.

I have met a developer, it can take years to make the platforms, and they can be expensive. It depends on the broker, they tell you mostly up front what their fees are. Some are shady, but by comparing live feeds you can see how/if the spread is manipulated. I trade with MB Trading and it is a set fee per lot. Then there is the spread, as in all markets. Due to the high volume of forex, I find the fees, lot sizes and 24 hour trading, to be the arena I prefer. For example .45 cents one way and a .80 cent (variable) spread to enter, and you can use market orders with very little slippage (EUR/USD). A dollar per pip value. MB has a nice order platform and great service also, $400 to open an account. I have traded many instruments and Forex is where I will continue. I trade (watch) 4 crosses at a time. Anyhow it is worth doing your homework and checking out services.

The platform was developed by a high grade software company, then leased by different brokers. You can get a demo account for, so far, an unlimited amount of time and trade on your choice broker platform. Your quote feed is a small amount of space on their server for the advertising. Really, VT is one of the nicest platforms I have seen. It can be set up for auto trading and is programmable.

Have to add VT Trading to the list Download VT Trader Forex Software ? Trading Software - CMS Forex it really is one of the nicest technical charting packages I have seen for free, with quotes. - To get 5000 bar back fill here are the basic instructions environment/options/double click general properties/communication tab/history length I find CMS meta trader delaying quotes, and dropping data.

Hi, hope to save somebody some money. I have CMS forex free charting for Meta trader and VT Trading Systems. During fast moving markets the Meta trader delays and drops live data, also back fill data, sometimes skewing indicators. VT keeps up much better. I like the older VT trader version 2.0. it crashes less. I posted some forex trading ideas on the technical trading forum. Also I programmed some alerts for moving average envelope bands for VT or Quote tracker, posted on the coding forum.

Hi, sorry about the double post, wanted to include the code. I programmed an alert system for VT trader, it can be unzipped and installed as a trading system. Use the Trading systems builder import function.Then select the the params alerts of up trend and down trend . Set properties to set your envelope pip size. I added an alert shutoff range, called alert margin pip value. For example if you set your pip value for the envelope alert to 14 pips (50 ema envelope) then I put in 16 pips for the price exceed value alert shut off margin. I much prefer version 2.0. rather than the newer one, less crashes I hope the complete download works, because the inputs should be included. It still has the auto trade code, but I do not use it or really have tweaked it. DataBars:= Ref(Pr,-HShift); tmpMV:= Mov(DataBars,tPr,mt); MA:= tmpMV+((tmpMV*VShift)/100); UC:= MA + (Pips*SymbolPoint()); LC:= MA - (Pips*SymbolPoint()); UCC:= MA + (Pipscont*SymbolPoint()); LCC:= MA - (Pipscont*SymbolPoint()); {Trend Direction} UpTrend:= Pr>UC And Pr<UCC; DownTrend:= Pr<LC AND Pr>LCC; {Long/Short Entry/Exit Display Signals} Buy_Signal:= Cross(MA,UC); Sell_Signal:= Cross(LC,MA); Here is a similar paint bar alert for Quote tracker to be modified. It is set for $2.50 envelope from the 50 ema. Copy and paste into the complex expression paint bar editor. if ABS(bar close-ema(50))>2.5 set color to Yellow and stop This is not the step by step instructions to get these installed, let me know if you get stuck along the way. Also a random note, Meta trader gave me serious delays in real time forex tracking, check it on fast moving markets, VT is much better. VT Envcros_alertzone.zip

Hi, This is a thread to share about the idea of "fresh, or first touch". Here are the basics. The first strategy is shown with the red triangles on the "10 pip 50 ma" chart. I use a 50 ema (magenta line) crossover. If a trend has been in progress and price has been separated from the 50ema for "a while", when price finally does cross the 50 ema by 10 to 12pips (EUR/USD); then I fade back to the 50ema. I want the touch and cross to be the first touch of the 50ema and a fresh one. I use an 18 pip stop or less. The stop is rarely hit, I avoid market openings. The trade does not come around too often (5 min bars), but it is a very sure trade. The yellow envelopes are 15 and 30 pips from the 50 ema (on VT trader). Dark blue is 250 ema. Another is similar strategy is shown on the other 5 minute chart by the white triangle. This is using the outer 50ema, 30 pip yellow bands envelope. After a long trend, wait for the price to finally first touch the 30 pip outer band opposite the trend direction. Then fade in the direction of the trend to the 14 ema (light blue line), or for a few contracts you can hold a runner to the 50 ema. The yellow block on the first chart shows another example of a near envelope touch that could have been taken. I use a 18 pip stop for this one also, but it is a high probability trade also. Of course if you want to tighten up your stops, you can wait for compound confirmations, like trend lines and so on. The idea of the thread is to invite others to add ideas that they are using on any kind of index, stock, or futures. Also since these are reversal strategies, note the conditions you avoid, like bb squeeze breakouts, triangle squeezes, market openings, etc. The idea is to have a few extra strategies that are high probability to be watching for, to trade more often. I will soon post a download with some coded alerts that I programmed for VT Trader, so you do not have to watch the chart for hours. It will be on the coding forum. I already have a paint bar alerts system I posted for Quotetracker. Then I would like to expand to useful observations. Something like, in a strong trend generally the price will bounce off the 14 ema 2-3 times before it retraces to the 50 ema. Or maybe after a squeeze breakout, at the first touch of the 50ema enter trade to continue with the trend, stop 15 pips. Another is to just use the 15 or 30 pip bands as a reversal guide in a sideways market, reversing to the 50ema. So I hope this is of interest to others, these observations can have been so useful in predicting profitable strategies.

Yes I agree with your point, a look at the daily is valuable. Most days the day price action is not on a major support resistance level. Also if it is, there is generally consolidation, and the question is when and what direction will it break out. The problem with breakouts is that unless you use wide stops, one needs some real precision to target the breakout action, and avoid the false break. The one hour does show the price action with about 2 months or more on a single screen of clearer definition. Showing things like formations, averages, exhaustion bars, or rejection levels. Getting down to the 5 minute trigger seems useful, that is when I have seen the market respond. As for the bigger runs you speak of, I catch them with my large envelopes. The ranges are tightly reflected on the hourly. Actually there is one more EMA I use that is the 600 ema on both charts. It ties me into bigger time frames. The reason that I use the 5 and 60 min is that the ma's correlate. Something like my 200 ma on my 5 minute is similar to my 50 on the hourly. Also the pivots tie me into higher frames. So everybody has their objectives, and the daily perspective is something I agree with and use. Just trying to simplify and focus on key aspects, that would are a bit unique to what I have been using.

Well since I began to explain, I might as well continue. My EMA colors used are aqua 14, pink 50, dark blue 250. I was looking at the hour chart and noticing that the yellow and blue boxes appear very similar in an inverse fashion. Although I do not trade hourly bars, it makes my point blurry without further clarification (or a bigger contextual chart to view). The blue box responded to a 50% major trend fibonacci retracement, and broke upward. The idea of early or late in the trend is more clearly seen on the 5 minute chart, with the price high late in the trend. On my 5 minute chart I use daily pivots. On the hourly, weekly pivots. I also use a series of EMA envelopes. The one simple thing that I will share is that I have devised a measurement of how far price crosses above or below the 50 EMA before a trend is out of momentum, and will then trade sideways or reverse. So for a made up example: for an up trend on the 5 minute bars, if the price goes 4 points below the 50ema , I consider the up trend to have lost momentum. This means that a channel can develop and last for numerous oscillations, if it follows an lengthy trend. So to avoid getting off topic, let's say that there are other factors that I use to see strong support and resistance levels. I consider these also for direction of breakout, but am not going into them for brevity sake. The simple idea of the probability of the channel break in the direction of the hourly and triggered on the 5 minute is what I offer for now. Combined with the thought of using forex market opening and closings for timing triggers. Not easy to cram and limit in a few paragraphs what is a extensive system. Like I said, breakout's are not my favorite thing to play, they come down to probability and avoiding fakeouts. My system is really about the average range of a breakout hitting strong support/ resistance and fading the stretched range.

I will try to be a bit clearer, I like this forum because people care about the details. What I meant was when a fresh trend,levels off and goes into a sideways channel. Take a look at the 5 minute chart and the yellow zone gives you a visual. I regret that I do not have the backfill for the ES now, but the Euro/USD does trade very close to it often times, so these are EUR/USD charts. So to define fresh and so on I would need to put on the envelopes and other accessories. But for a simple definition, lets just say a fresh trend has recently come out of a consolidation pattern, It is not stretched or extended yet. I look to the hourly to see where price action is in relationship to the MA's (yellow box on hourly) I see it is above mostly above the MA's. I am leaning for a break long. Then I wait for price to get above MA's on the 5 minutes. The break came at the Tokoyo open (the times on Meta trader are set strangely). The S+P usually will react to these forex moves. Actually traders like John Carter often use the forex to lead the indices for trading the ES (I have also) A few other things to note are on the 1 hour, see the 14 (blue) and 50 (pink) crossover preceding the (yellow box area) long run up in price. Also the 1 hour blue box was late in the down trend, with an exhaustion bar, lead to a channel break up. On the 5 minute it is a bit weak to see, but on the price peak there was a channel with a mild exhaustion, late in the trend, that broke down as it crossed below the MA's. Anyhow no magic formula, just things to see if the are helpful for you.

Hi I am going to offer a few ideas for people to work with, rather than explaining the complex system I use to evaluate breakout direction and timing. I guess the obvious is to watch market opens and closes around the world for timing and powerful follow through (along with news announcements). I like to use a 5 minute chart and 1 hour chart. I set up on both 14ema, 50ema, and 250ema. I watch for convergences on the 1 hour chart, they usually lead to major trend breakouts. If a trend is "fresh" and channels sideways, I check where price is on the hourly in relationship to the EMA's . If it is above all then expect long. Then wait for the same on the 5 minute. Most wait for the pullback after the channel break to buy. If it is later in a tired trend I will wait for the price to fall below the 50 and 14 on the 5 minute. Then if there has been a past price exhaustion, I look for the momentum to push down to the 200ma. Anyhow enough generalities for a few lines. I actually use this system to forecast how far a breakout will go, and fade it (using ma envelopes) but I have good results predicting the breakout direction and timing. For me the market reverses and chops far more than it breaks out so I am more of a reversal trader.