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Eric Johnson
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There have been many versions of TFOT since this EA began recorded testing. It is by design a hedging EA. What is strange is that the MyFX book record is on a non hedging Alpari US account. I have backtested many versions of this EA and have not found it profitable, I have found one or two on other forums that have found it profitable. I have tested other free EA's from the same company and found them to back test poorly. It is possible to claim that a trading record is generated by an EA, but be a manual trading system, a pro trader, or a combo of automated and manual. I have tested thousands of EA's program them, and trade professionally. Research a long time before you pay for an expensive EA. Most are just weak versions of Blessing or Indo run grid martingale systems.
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Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Today a quick and half baked post. Here is the progress on the hourly and ( 5 minute) line overlap charts. They are the same as the original ones described and previously posted for the FXF forex. com platform. The change is that they have been recoded for any normal platform like Oanda that carries so many exotic pairs. To preserve the profiles that grouped pairs together for correlation value, I could not change the indicator name, just the code. Also when I put them on the new platform, the colors were all one default color. So I got half of the colors back to individual colors. This is a work in progress, it has been a while since I have even opened these zipped folders. I still can use the old FXF platform, but it may be hard to download this outdated platform for others. oanda fxf profiles.zip OANDA FXF conversion overlap.zip -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Indeed, the concepts behind comparing price movement and separation are tricky to conceptualize. A random note of importance, I see that the forex .com has changed their extensions again. I redid many of the indicators to not have the FXF extension in it, but the profiles also needed to be redone. It is a work in progress, as I want to run all of these on Oanda. The forex. com version is MT4 build 225, and it still works and has live feeds if you can get a download of it. I will post the new profiles and indicators when I get back to that project. Referring to our charts, I can see that you are using a version of the JM variance that is different than the one I use. The important thing to consider is to look into the code and see if it auto samples the "week open" prices. In my versions (EJV) it does not, you set these fixed prices to the comparison level you want to use for that pair. Allow me to rephrase this important concept. For me to measure pip difference expansion, I need each pair to have a fixed price that it moves from. This is the "Week Open" value in my EJV version. You can see from my JPEG that I set the value of the USDCAD to 1.22 (P1). This is not the current market price, I put the fixed price at that value to center the highs and lows of the chart for the last 3 years. For the AUDCAD I set the fixed value at 1.04 (P2). Now I have values to use as set references for expansion and convergence. Also I can set the scale factor to keep the historical highs and lows on the chart. I can see your attachment looks different, because you are zoomed way in (scale factor). This pair has wild swings, so I am zoomed way out. I would rather see historically adjusted zoom out, than be in a trade from a zoomed in chart, and have the price expand off the chart and lose hundreds of pips. There are better pairs to trade, that when zoomed out keep better ranges and expand and contract more often. Also you need to be careful about the upper and lower pair when trading. If you do not have a clear method as with the EJV (higher price is P1) , then you can mess up order direction. You will see with rescaling overlays (or autosampling indicators) that the lines can switch from upper to lower position by themselves (even chart indent can do this). Especially for the USDCAD and AUDCAD because they are so close in actual price. Also I am not sure if you are aware of the measuring tool in Metatrader. Once you activate the crosshairs, if you click and drag between 2 points on a chart, it will give you a horizontal and vertical value. This can be read with some practice , due to the digits used , but it can give pips. I attached a copy of the EJV I use. Progress is profit, thankfully so many tools are free. ''JM_Vari-BEST lookback yen 10 INVERSE positive up.zip -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Hmm, I will have to see how the week goes, it may be very busy for the next few, or slow and plenty of time for projects. Here are my observations for progress on your display and layout. First it has been many months, but doesn't the variance indicator you are using rescale due to it's programed sampling of pair prices? Said another way, most of your pip difference visuals rescale. Even the stocastic is formed(bent) by the stoc settings, and the flattening. The point is, even if you had a display of actual pip difference, your historical visual pip comparison would be distorted, or rescaling. It took me many weeks to sort through the idea of rescaling distortions and how elusive they can be. Even if you change monitors (resolution) is enough to distort the spacing of the lines. What ends up happening is that the display shows you should be in the profit, but you are losing money, due to the rescaling distortion. Also a clear lock on the top pair and bottom pair is essential , to establish the center line for comparing expansions. In essence this is the function of the EJV, you fix the scaling, set the center line, define the top and bottom pair, and set the historical pip extremes. Also you get an undistorted view of the vertical separation speed, so you can evaluate likelihood of contraction. The programming seems somewhat straight forward, but I can already see the complexities of it. The larger price of the 2 currencies would have to be established. The aspect that is beyond me is how to auto convert the Yen pairs (the digits are incompatible). I know in theory, but it would take time to find the script to make it compile. The problem that I see, is that there is no "actual pip difference". If a yen pair is at 72.09 and a GBP pair is at 1.49 , there is no set difference scale if they move. You have to define the center line to display offset. If that center line is constantly changing with auto sampling, it is worthless. It needs to be set by the user, and fixed until altered. This is why I built the EJV. It has been many months since I was inside the code of the indicators you are using, so let me know if I am missing the point. I was a bit unnerved at the hourly correlation expansion of the EUR/USD and the NZD/USD. It ended up being way off the historical scaling norms. Fortunately, due to the slow slope of the EJV, I did not have too much money on it, but it shows that crisis euro news can throw off traditionally faithful correlation relationships. Otherwise, nice work in progress. The 5 minute EJV is fun to trade if you choose the pairs carefully. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Hi, looks like you have been hard at work, as have I. It is high season here and I prefer to work some, to avoid the masses. To find fun and festivity is easy, it is always available here. Ok for the EJV, the idea of previous week open was something that I put in the fine print of one of the previous posts. That idea was a left over in the programming. Actually that was an auto sampling of price that I froze. It is now an input of the "center of historical action" of your historical sampling. It is just and adjustment used to center your graphs. I usually sample 12 - 20 thousand bars. The focus is not so much on range, but rate of vertical change to trade. The historical vertical scaling is somewhat important for zoom perspective, but really you are looking for fast dramatic expansions. Even if you think you are at an historical expansion level, if it is not proceeded by a fast expansion, it is not my kind of set up. Take a look at the attachment. The white line shows a good vertical change, even if the reversal low was not at historical levels (orange arrow). Compare this with the orange line, good levels poor expansion, poor trade, drawdown before profit. As for you demo drawdown , I do not trade that stoc system, but here are my thoughts. Forgive me, kind of the same mantra, but I repeat it for any new people. The object of the trade is to survive the drawdowns, because the payoff and probability is so high. The long extended trend runs of the Euro can take months to retrace, or pull the correlate pairs back into place/ profit. Small lot sizes scaled in, long pip runs. The EJV purpose is to freeze in settings, to stop distortions in overlay scaling, or things like stocastic peak flattening. It is real pips, real profit or loss, true expansions. I look forward to the new tools you posted, I appreciate you keeping up with the developments, I have so much going on here with my 20 other trading systems I have running all at once. I got more monitors and upgraded everything for the new year. It is hard to look back on my charts and see how many perfect trades I missed, due to just not monitoring my alerts. I actually have a real life, and when I work a few hours, I want to be busy making profits on short term charts, not waiting around for ideal set ups. Anyhow best of clarity to you.. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Yes, I built those profiles in a progression, as I needed to check up on a cross I added them. Also the MT platform can only run so many stacked charts on a page/ profile. The 2 MA charts are the line overlay charts. I left a window there for them to be added for comparison, I do not use them much, they distort, but I can see if one pair is the one stretched, and expect it to have more reversal potential. It takes hours to retune the EJV charts, so copying my settings somehow will save time. These EJV charts/ profiles I flip through in 5 minutes, just looking for fast expansions. It is quick when you are set up. When you see an good expansion, double click on the EJV to look at the settings window. Look back historically 20k bars if you want to look for the expansion reversal scale (use page up or down key). Then if the histogram is up above zero, sell the first currency listed; buy the second. Opposite if the histogram is negative. Always put the more expensive currency in the first position. It is a quick 10 minute process to scan and make orders. The hourly EJV moves so slow it is not much maintenance. You can see on the 5 minute charts historically how pairs do change range. You can see the pairs that do not change range often on the EJV hourly via the flat histogram pair comparisons. The order of the stochastic profile is based on the hourly line overlay chart mega profiles FXF. They were divided into correlating line groups. For the overall market and DD, the hourly line overlay shows that few pairs have had long stretch trends. Also on most of the charts there are large formations, and the EUR/GBP daily has a mega triangle formation. I am cautious in my sizing, there is plenty of room for expansion. Mostly my positions are long EUR/USD opposing short AUD CAD and smaller NZD/USD short. I have a bunch of smaller positions that put money in my account every few days also. Also if you want to share that FXF patch you use, people may have use for that. There is a script somewhere I could put into every program to unify the symbols, as some platforms use m in the symbols. So for all of the set up and learning, this is the easiest and least maintenance system I have ever traded. It takes me outside of being chained to the tedious charts, and the short term chop. I have gotten into the box trades, they are interesting, but limited. Well back to prime time in the islands. My life here is so fun that I get the motivation to grind through charts. It is hardly the highlight of my day, just my absorbing past time. The profits are a plus. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Well, finally got these 5 minute EJV correlation comparisons retuned, they are missing the 5 or so new pairs that I listed (they are on the hourly EJV charts). I included the 2 older portfolios that I posted earlier, I again retuned some of them for my larger resolution screen. The pt 1 and 2 are tuned to 15,000 bars, most of the stacks to 30k bars historical 5 minute. Once set up and tuned it is a fairly quick scan to look for fast expansions. These are forex.com Metatrader portfolios (FXF) . Good luck, the gains have been solid. High volatility is great for trading especially the 1 hour EJV charts. It is built for 400 pip runs like the Euro has been trending. EJV 5 minute stacks.zip EJV 5 min random pt 1pairs.zip EJV 5 minutes pt 2 pairs.zip -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Hello, I sure like that FX book charting and display you showed, nothing like a steady rising profit graph to tell the tale of success. A few technical details before I chat. I have been so busy with my trading email box, keeping up with new ideas and integrating them into my trading. This weekend it was learning about Oanda's box trade binary options. I read a bunch on them and need to see how the real time pricing is for them. They are interesting to combine with my other recent post, on RSI, ADX, scalping methods. What interested me most is the no touch boxes. I can tell quite well the area where price is not going to go. Then I am in the position of a time expiring binary option. It is like selling uncovered out of the money options and watching the clock tick to profits. There are other aspects I like, I have limited risk, no stop losses needed, 24 hour access, no slippage for announcements, and mostly I just need one touch to get paid my total. I do not need the option to go deep in the money. People complained about only Oanda buying them back, but some other binary options are all or nothing, so I have choices to hedge with the underlying currency if i like. Also I can enter into opposing positions and multiple positions. It is very interesting, and I want to come up with a strategy for correlation hedging. Something like, if I am in an expansion trade, and I expect volatility or possible more expansion I can use these boxes to offset the further expansion losses. I am able to hold the original positions without reopening and closing them, and stay in the positions for moves in my favor. I attached another 5 minute profile to be used with my original FXF indicators. It is important with all of the EJV charts to backfill at least 30,000 bars and check the scaling for yourself, and get perspective on how the pairs move, rise over run, before contracting. I am still hesitant to trade 5 mins with the wild swings happening. The best pairs to trade are the ones that look fairly flat on the hourly EJV charts. This means that the correlation is very strong, and range changes are rare. Well for the enjoyable part of being a trade, meeting the people behind the efforts. I lived many years on the Big Island of Hawaii, and ocean kyacked and kyack surfed. I would spend weeks on the Waipio coast. Beautiful photos online of the Kohala coast. I am forty and got freed up for the last 8 years, via my real estate ventures. I realized that the markets were a far cleaner way to make money work, so have many hours a day to sit by the beach and do design work. I trade, but it is just to test strategies. I am into MT programming, so I do not have to trade, it bores me to death to wait all day to do the obvious trades. This is why I like correlation trades, generally the more I ignore my open positions, the more I profit. Oanda in the USA is only 50 to 1 leverage. I do not believe in tying up money, but I use such a small part of my available leverage correlation trading. For example the Eur/Usd at $1 a pip; it is $300 if I am looking at 300 pip runs. This is only on one leg of my trade. The margin used for the Eur/Usd is just $260. Yes more leverage is great, but you can do plenty with an account less than $10k. We have 1000 to one leverage here in Asia, MT compatible. Cambodia and Laos are nice, and much easier on the visas. Thailand is an easy to read menu, the other countries are enchanting, but you have to hang around in the slow lane to figure out what is happening. Well it is interesting that we have so many common interests. Something about the promised land of freedom, and correlation trading work together well for me. EJV 5 minute random pairs part 1.zip -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Sounds like you have been busy in all areas of life. Glad to see that your endurance and plans to live a full free life are motivating real action. Well as you may see, especially on the hourly charts where the trades can take weeks; the name of the game is to be able to endure the drawdown. If you can, the high probability of a contraction to profit is extremely high. It is like telling regular trend riders, if you just hold positions, they will return to profitability over 90% of the time. When people realize that is what this style of correlation trading is about, it will be a new day for many. I have been slow to use the Metatrader EA's with Oanda. They have this goofy order format, where the stop orders have to go in as order modifications, not with the original order. Even with the coding working properly, the order modifications do not always enter properly. I am mostly working on scalping complex candlesticks. Companies like Forex. com let you run your EA on their server, that is where I am looking to get to. For now I converted my EA's to indicators and am manually trading them, so I can watch the overall market (and 20 other pairs). Also speaking of MT, I have run the new Jason Fielder Arb platform. It is a good idea, but here are my challenges. I live half way around the world from my broker, so latency is a concern. More importantly if I open MT and watch the market watch window, I notice that the MT feed is much choppier than my normal trade ticker. Many of those arb chances are due to lousy MT feed quality. Add to that the lousy, slow order execution on my Oanda MT, I would be losing to the spread most of the time. As for the Sunday morning market openings of brokers having arb opportunities, the spreads are absurd at that hour. I have not been impressed by Jasons correlation trading methods that I have reviewed. The arb idea is not new, just available to normal traders. If it was real hot, it would be an automated EA to grab auto profits. Maybe I will post some of his free correlation methods if I can find them, so others can see what they think. I attached a profile that is not FXF based for the major pairs, this goes with the non FXF indicators I previously posted. This is the same as the screen shot. Each color is a different pair, example USDCHF is blue. As for the market conditions, I really like to use the hourly overlay charts as on over view. Take a look at the attachment photo. It shows with the red arrows the market contractions. Be very cautious placing hedge trades when the market is contracted. Also form these hourly based line charts you can see the stretched long trends. If the pairs are not stretched, be cautious. The EJV will show a different perspective, but you will not see the fast there expansions either, unless the trends are strong and extended . You need these fast expansions to insure reversals. Just because a range is wide, wait for the quick dramatic expansion. It has been at great few weeks for me,up nearly 18% if I can close out my existing trades at break even or better. The pairs have allowed me to switch them when I can lock in profit on one side of the pair. I look for another correlated pair that still is stretched, to couple with the negative loss side of the original trade. Below is a list of the compared pairs that I have included and tuned on the EJV hourly profiles posted earlier. These are FXF forex. com based. I recommend running them on their native demo account, so you do not have to redo the tuning. I am redoing the 5 minute charts, just between other things. I posted one of the 3 profiles below that I finished. It is good to look back 20, 000 bars for the 5 minute charts. Scale until the high and low of the historical, extends the width of the lower window. Off on another island adventure, no need to take my computer, generally I check the the charts every few hours, no worries. Usually the longer I wait, the better the profit. Actually I am headed to northern Phuket today, Laguna resorts are nice this time of the year. Let me know if you are visiting anytime. I have a paraglider and the surf is good in the summer. AUDCAD AUDUSD AUDCAD NZDUSD AUDCAD NZDJPY AUDCAD EURCAD AUDJPY NZDJPY AUDUSD NZDUSD AUDNZD EURUSD AUDNZD CADJPY AUDNZD CHFJPY AUDNZD EURAU CadJPY USDCHF EURAUD GBPAUD EURAUD GBPCAD EURAUD USDCAD EURAUD AUDCAD EURAUD EURCAD EURAUD GBPUSD EURAUD CADJPy EURCAD EURAUD EURCAD GBPCAD EURCAD GBPUSD EURCHF GBPUSD EURCHF USDCHF EURCHF GBPJPY EURCHF GBPCAD EURCHF EURCHF EURGBP CHFJPY EURGBP EURUSD EURGBP GBPUSD EURGBP AUDNZD EURGBP GBPCAD EURGBP EURCAD EURUSD GBPUSD EURUSD NZDJPY EURUSD NZDUSD GBPCAD GBPAUD GBPCAD USDCAD GBPCHF USDCHF GBPCHF EURCHF GBPCHF EURAUD GBPCHF AUDJPY GBPCHF GBPJPY GBPJPY AUDJPY GBPJPY GBPUSD GBPUSD NZDJPY GBPUSD USDCAD GBPUSD gbp usd GBPUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDCAD NZDJPY NZDUSD NZDJPY AUDJPY NZDJPY GBPJPY NZDJPY AUDCAD NZDJPY EURUSD NZDJPY GBPUSD NZDUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCAD NZDUSD EURCHF NZDUSD AUDCAD USDJPY CADJPY USDJPY GBPUSD USDJPY GBPJPY USDJPY NZDUSD USDJPY AUDCAD USDJPY AUDJPY USDJPY NZDUSD USDJPY USDCHF USDCHF GBPAUD ----------------- new aud cad eur usd eurcad er chf eurchf chf jpy euraud usd chf euraud usd jpy nzd jpy usd chf eur usd usd chf EJV 5 minute random pairs part 2.zip INDIVIDUAL Correlations and mega.zip -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Wow, encouraging results for the stochastic indicator, it is a surprise that it works well. I had tweaked the stochastic lines to mirror price charts, normally you would want two extreme stochastic readings in opposite direction pairs. The idea being to trend reversal opportunities. That indicator with my defaults, gives you one high stochastic reading for one pair, and one low for the other. It was only a radar for me. The original developer had very different defaults if you want to check out their model on FF. I re-calibrated and added to the 5 minute charts of EJV so I will try to finish them and post them soon, it was a lengthy endeavor, and they look more like hourly charts now. They are the same programming, just more conservatively tuned to market volatility. You may also notice that I am trading some not- really correlated pairs, with a zoomed out perspective on my EJV. If the ranges are reasonably defined, I am trading the pairs. I have similar high gain results trading, I cannot over emphasize very small lot sizes, for large pip runs. News can be extreme and the markets have been kind of level. I mean that as I look at the overlap hourly charts, very few pairs have had stretched trend runs. Well I can see that your encouraging progress is keeping people interested in this topic. It is forex orientated, but forex rules and it is good to encourage people to consider it. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Oh, I sure do appreciate the EA, I am spending the weekend building them. I am working on hourly bar scalps, based on extensive parameters. I want to have scalping happening, especially when the hourly hedges are not stretched. I need to catch up with the other thread, I think correlation trading is the best way to win consistently with small lots, and big runs. So here is my list of currencies that I monitor. AUDCAD AUDJPY AUDNZD AUDUSD CADJPY CHFJPY EURAUD EURCAD EURCHF EURGBP EURUSD AUDCAD EURCHF CHFJPY GBPAUD GBPCAD GBPCHF GBPJPY GBPUSD NZDJPY NZDUSD USDCAD USDCHF USDJPY SILVER As you can tell, that gives many interactive combinations. These pairs were still not enough for me, so I went into hedging forex against stocks, indices, and futures. My problem is that with metatrader the historical backfill for stocks is limited. Hour bars are slow moving, and the more choices for great expansions I have, the better my trading. There are some decent overlay charting sites, but I will not trade without the EJV perspective. There is another way to trade that I have not mentioned, it is with the line overlay charts, using the cross hair click and drag measurement tool, and setting max stretch measurements for pairs. There are some details to getting it correct, but the distortion factor is still there. When the pairs are at max stretch, it is a money bonanza. Anyhow back to programming. Hope your learning curve is quick. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Well the good news is that there is only about 20 pairs that I use on any (all) of my charts. All of them are tradeable on Oanda, and the average pip spread is 3 pips, max like 6 ( if you are running hundreds of pips the one time spread is viable). Here is the structure. Each hourly overlay chart is for a base pair, and is shown as a white line. I selected any pairs that had high correlations to the base pair for extended periods of time, and that is what you see on each tab. The 5 minute line overlays are the same charts, just time changed. So of course you have a massive number of correlation comparisons, and some duplicates. The stocastic tool charts are set default to 5 minute. I used them only for radar to check EJV. Stocastics are hard to mirror price movement with. The profile was built based on the line overlay combos. Same thing, some duplicates. I think the alert for that indicator default was 65, not high enough for trade entry in my opinion.I think that 5 minute charts are likely to be overpowered by hard long trends. You can change the stocastic indicator to 1 hour by changing the chart time. The EJV charts are not hard to use if you can get the profiles running, the layout work is already mostly done, but the 5 minute charts need tuning more often. They are being progressively built as I see a line chart comparison that I want to check out. The art to trading correlation is to weed out distortions and get precise comparison tools. The EJV is the best I have found. It is real pips, you tune it for historical perspective, and it is not constantly distorting. Waiting on hourly bar stretches can seem lengthy for the first time. Once you get going you seem to have residual profits running for weeks at a time, and can stay busy locking in profits. Often times it is locking profits on the winning half of a pair, and coming up with another pair to replace it, that is still stretched. For exits, the process I just mentioned of switching pairs is a good way. . You should gradually reduce lot size to take profits, many times to reenter upon re-expansion. If the market (EJV) not longer appears stretched then just exit the entire trade with a profit. If a stretch goes flat for a few weeks, lighten your positions, it can expand further. For a stop loss, If you get caught into a news driven mega trend, you can lighten position sizes, take a partial loss, and reenter when you see clear retracement areas on the actual normal charts involved. It will take time to realize the art of using absurdly small lot sizes. I do mean 400 pip ranges are what you are working with. I set my default order entry stops at 280 pips and change them larger all the time.Of course there is near equal profit on the other half of the pairs. When you get in the cycle of waiting for steep stretches, clear range reversals, and proper gradual lot additions it becomes a smooth running profit machine. I trade about 10 single pairs at once. I could build an EA from the EJV, but I like to personally monitor major news. for example I want to take many profits before the US unemployment report. Keep in mind that you are mostly reversing large individual trends, so use any long term reversal skills you want to assist you. The correlation aspect offers an insurance, and added benefit of historical contractions to profit from. It is very different than normal trading, where you do not know if price will ever come back to your entry level. In correlation trading a couple like EUR/USD and GBP/USD they have a super predictable expansion and contraction range. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Here is some theoretical thoughts on the beauty of correlation trading. 1. First your trend dynamics become circular expansions (line overlay stretches), no longer linear trends that may not return to a price level ever. 2. You discover more trading opportunities because you have inter pair dynamics, not just regular single trend progressions that are worth reversing. 3.When looking at the EJV historically it shows so clearly the contraction of all of the stretches for decently correlated pairs. You are on the side of the large hedge funds and central banks that have to keep their currency in a range to keep product export prices viable. You just rest easy as the profit loses fluctuate until you are well in the profit. 4. You can do normal chart trades in a new manner. I wanted to go long EUR/GBP last week due to the bottom formation. I did this by combining with another stretched correlate pair short. The EUR/GBP went against me down, but the correlate pair made up for the loss. Now I can wait for the pairs to contract. Or if the EUR/GBP does rise powerfully, I can take the profit. The correlate pair should have taken offsetting losses in the process. I then look to undo this loss, with another fresh pair that is stretched. I put EUR/GBP money locked in my account profit. Also had the good chance that losses on the correlate pair were not so much due to contraction. Now I am in the position of money taken as profit, and entered in the new stretch that should close with further profits. 5. As in # 4 if you have unusually powerful trends, you can take profits on the winning side, and re-enter on the pullback, or introduce a new stretched pair. Just have a good reason to exit and take single side profit, like strong price resistance, or an extraordinary pip range run that is likely to retrace. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Here is some theoretical thoughts on the beauty of correlation trading. 1. First your trend dynamics become circular expansions (line overlay stretches), no longer linear trends that may not return to a price level ever. 2. You discover more trading opportunities because you have inter pair dynamics, not just regular single trend progressions that are worth reversing. 3.When looking at the EJV historically it shows so clearly the contraction of all of the stretches for decently correlated pairs. You are on the side of the large hedge funds and central banks that have to keep their currency in a range to keep product export prices viable. You just rest easy as the profit loses fluctuate until you are well in the profit. 4. You can do normal chart trades in a new manner. I wanted to go long EUR/GBP last week due to the bottom formation. I did this by combining with another stretched correlate pair short. The EUR/GBP went against me down, but the correlate pair made up for the loss. Now I can wait for the pairs to contract. Or if the EUR/GBP does rise powerfully, I can take the profit. The correlate pair should have taken offsetting losses in the process. I then look to undo this loss, with another fresh pair that is stretched. I put EUR/GBP money locked in my account profit. Also had the good chance that losses on the correlate pair were not so much due to contraction. Now I am in the position of money taken as profit, and entered in the new stretch that should close with further profits. 5. As in # 4 if you have unusually powerful trends, you can take profits on the winning side, and re-enter on the pullback, or introduce a new stretched pair. Just have a good reason to exit and take single side profit, like strong price resistance, or an extraordinary pip range run that is likely to retrace. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
This repost of the non FXF indicators should have content, thanks for catching that early. Actually I am hanging out in the Thai islands trading on an aircard most of the time> Bangkok was simpler than writing something like Nakon Si Tammarat non FXF basics.zip -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
I will rewrite a short section on how to use the line overlay charts. For the hourly profiles I just quickly flip through the pair tabs. I look for any pair that is greatly separated from the pack. I can use the cross hairs to click and drag for a measurement between lines. I really am not too interested unless the lines being compared are on opposite sides of the chart. Then I look back historically to confirm briefly if these lines have been traveling together in positive correlation. Then it is off to the EJV indicator charts to see the comparison in real pips, and see if it is indeed stretched far apart. For reading the EJV charts look for rapid expansions. Avoid slow moving gradual expansions. When noticing distances of separation, look at the total run, even if it began on the opposite side of the zero line. Add positions gradually. You will be amazed how few lots you need when the pip runs are in the hundreds. To exit, phase out. You can use normal chart levels of support and resistance, or EJV levels of support and resistance. I never ride back to the zero line. I only want the extremely good trades and stretches. If you expect low volatility you can trade 5 minute bar EJV, but be prepared to exit at a loss if the market trends hard against you. Also following a hard trend 5 minute bars can be traded for the quieter market follow through. Five minute bars are consistent money, but with the news and market wildness, I am sticking to hour bars these days. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Hi, I run different MT platforms, even at the same time, for different chart ideas. I use the forex . com USA best, or UK. True, their profiles may be unique . Oanda has recently added a large amount of pairs, and they do not carry the FXF. Here is a basic starter platform profile and indicators for Oanda or other platforms attached below. If you have some determination, just change the FXF extensions by deleting them in the code. It is this line that gets changed and compiled. extern string Sym_1 = "AUDUSDFXF"; change to extern string Sym_1 = "AUDUSD"; do not change the name of the indicator or the profile cannot find it. the indicator also has the ability to change the symbol on the chart, if you can access it in the indicator list , and edit the properties. I do recommend using different MT demo platforms, I like watcing the indices right from my FX platform. Good luck with the details, at least you do not have to make this stuff up as you go as I did. non FXF basics.zip INDIVIDUAL Correlations and mega.zip -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Quick post today, added some new pairs to the profiles. The markets have been well expanded for consistent profits. For these big swings use small lot sizes, scale in and out, and be patient for those occasional month long slow movers. A strategic note. Sometimes I open positions for 2 pairs, one long and one short. I assign them a number, attached to the lot amount like 108, 8 being the ID for the pairs. If I see another correlation that I want to add, I share the number. For example 218 EURUSD short, and 108 GBPUSD long and 108 NZDUSD long. Lets say that the NZDUSD makes money quickly. I can take the profit and add another 100 GBPUSD long. There are some very nice ways to stack and exchange orders to have a consistent flow of income. Mostly if you see that the many line hourly overlay charts are not stretched, be cautious with lot size, even if the EJV looks reasonably stretched. JM HOURLY STACKS 1.zip RANDOM HOURLY JM.zip RANDOM HOURLY SECOND.zip -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Thanks for the interest, and link to the original dream team. I did not do much to entice people in the benefits of correlation trading. As the tools get sharper, the draw downs are much less, and the beauty and assurance that correlation trades will profit; is historically a high probability. It is nice to just watch your balance fluctuate until it is well in the profit. On the better platforms I got into hedging forex against indices or stocks. The problem was not enough backfill. Anyhow let me know if there is direction I can be of use, there are plenty of complex tools to get the hang of here. The previous stocastic indicator and portfolio can be simply put to any time frame, including one hour. -
ADX, RSI, EMA Envelope Reversal Scalp Tools
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
It sounds like you have a good idea of what you are filtering for. The tools to use depend so much on your application, like are you trading an instrument that generally oscillates or trends? That is why I included specific currency pairs that back tested/traded well with the tools selected. Each of the fast oscillators are usually paired with a slower market condition filter. I guess looking through the pictures will be a good place to narrow in to an application that will be of use. For every indicator presented much development went into it's application. The idea of the ALR (assumed level of return) is worth considering if it is new to you. Anyhow, hope treasure hunting is enjoyable. -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
, I have been so busy with the fast moving markets and programming EA's. Here is an alert that I customized, for correlation trading. It is based on stochastics. You choose 2 normally positively correlated pairs and it alerts you when they are spread far apart for trading them back together. I will include a copy of it here, and post it in context on my other thread Correlation and Hedging Revisited. I use it as an alert radar when I monitor large amounts of charts. Stocastics are useful, but due to them flattening at peaks,I do not use this indicator much, but it was plenty of work to set up the 5 minute radar charts. I find the 5 minute charts EJV tradeable when the markets are quiet, independent of the hourly separation. They are like trading oscillation channels. When the mega trends come, you do not want to be trading 5 minute, only hourly. For this indicator, if you leave the first signal blank, it will take the symbol on the base chart being used. These are my default stoc settings trying to mirror price chart action. The display notes the currency pair being compared with the native chart pair. I took the line overlay charts and composed individual tabs with stacked stocastic indicators. I use this to alert me to opportunities that I can evaluate on the EJV indicator. The 5 minute mega is the profile, you will need my indicator pack to use the line overlay feature, but the stoc hybrid indicator will work on it's own. 5 min mega alert all 2.zip !!!STOC HYBRID ALERT DIFFERENCES.zip -
ADX, RSI, EMA Envelope Reversal Scalp Tools
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
thanks for joining in, I have been so busy with the fast moving markets and programming EA's. Here is an alert that I customized, actually for high level correlation trading. It is based on stochastics. It takes 2 normally positively correlated pairs and alerts you when they are spread far apart for trading them back together. I will include a copy of it here, and post it in context on my other thread Correlation and Hedging Revisited. I use it as an alert radar when I monitor large amounts of charts. It could easily be trimmed down to a regular stocastic alert. Stocastics are useful, but due to them flattening at peaks, I find them needing more precise timer indicators. !!!STOC HYBRID ALERT DIFFERENCES.zip -
Correlation and Hedging Revisited
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Here is another view of the EJV histogram. Near the white line "A" area, you can see on the hourly based histogram, a dramatic separation of the currency pairs. I would expect some pullback reaction from this expansion. I would add a few small positions at this point. I would wait for the greater expansion to lower historical lows ("B" on chart) before adding more positions. I exited the position when I saw support/resistance levels on the histogram "C", or on one of the pairs being traded. I want histograms that oscillate often. Long flat histograms are to be avoided. You can see that it is possible to stack histograms. Also notice on the line overlay charts on the top, there is not much separation, they are being rescaled by the computer graphics, and distorted. -
ADX, RSI, EMA Envelope Reversal Scalp Tools
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
I trimmed the bulk indicator pack that I previously posted. It contained far too many indicators in developmental trial version, and I removed the unrelated correlation indicators. Like I said, the installation of the old pack can overload MT and make some of the indicators not work. Here is the cleaner package. If you copy and paste, skip the duplicates, and the indicators should work. REVISED indicators RSI set.zip -
ADX, RSI, EMA Envelope Reversal Scalp Tools
Eric Johnson replied to Eric Johnson's topic in Technical Analysis
Here are the HOURLY profile and example trade set up. The indicators are the same as the previous post. This is also Forex.com format Metatrader. The setup is to look for the RSI (76 level) and the ADX 14 (69 level) to go high , as seen in by the white lines on the chart picture. You then know that the market is going to go into sideways trading or retrace. Down trends -- ADX same RSI lower level 24. You can stack positions for a ALR or do a heavy scalp to the 6ema in blue. Note that a 6 ema can move in real time, so set a scalp target in pips like 30 pips. Mostly with the valuable info on when a market is going to go sideways or reverse, 5 minute oscillation trades of any kind can be used. MACD ADX 2 HOURLY.zip