Anna-Maria

Nothing too mysterious re the stops placement. If you look at the 5m, the emergency exit hits on the open of the doji bar (2nd of the 3 bar reversal) on that frame. Anywhere from there to the top of the 3rd bar in that combo (9517) was appropriate for that entry. The confidence comes with familiarization & awareness. That takes a whole lick of time, as it does with any instrument. I'm certain once you cement your appropriate strats together & tune them into the specific environment(s), the confidence with increase. A case of walking before running? Get one fine tuned first before moving onto the next one! Also, as long as you're executing well inside your size to account parameters, there'll be one less problem to concern yourself with. If you can't absorb the odd slippage occurance due to an adverse spike or price shunt, then you're placing excessive emotional stress on your model. That's one of (if not the primary) the most important pieces of the jigsaw when planning your trades

On the prev graph (large hourly) the bog standard wave or trend is down, yeah? Lower highs/lower lows. The highlighted squares showed the confluence (pivot-fib) zone @ 1.9540 as 1st line hurdle for Cable to negate the near term momentum? Price needed to scale that zone in order to flip the bias from short to long? From yesterdays short thru the lower top failure, the position is still live as price has failed to push back & threaten, so we're still in depressed mode? The bias remains to the downside. This morning price has attempted a nudge off the larger 78.6/prev weeks low to attack the last swing high @ c550 & failed at the smaller 61.8% retrace, below todays R1 pivot, printing a favored doji bar with follow thru thrust. Given the near term trend, (& until 9540-50 is hurdled) I'm sniffing shorts. I'm not remotely interested in longs until the Cable Bulls justify the strength. Leading into the London Open, price was merely scraping the ground. It wasn't signalling anything worthy of execution until it popped up to check the space between the main pivot & R1. Had the doji on the smaller frames printed a green bar beyond 9515, then it would have been a case of waiting to see what occured at the next upper level (9540-50)? It didn't, it printed red & the 1 & 5m confirmed the doji retreat in line with the trend. So, according to my reading & near term expectation, it signalled "short continuation". I don't know about your interpretations or judgements etc, but wherever possible, I want to be running with the dominant flow. And the momentum remains down. The 2 graphs below highlight the 15/5m signals with appropriate risk stops to test the intent & continued momentum. If price pops down, stalls & reverses, & threatens my stops then I don't really want to be positioned, as the Bulls are obviously mounting an assault on the primary swing level? The doji/61.8% line never really got threatened on the secondary attempts to re-take the early London spike up? So, the stops were safe. That's my play on the early morning move. Momentum still down: Prev swing high still intact: No real support for Cable Bull activity: Short stance remains the primary objective: Our strategy models will obviously be different, carrying differing intent & objectives. Where you see no scale-out, I see decent 1st line profits? & vice versa. Where my aim is to compound an existing position, yours might be a seperate jobbing or intraday entry. Trade planning is unique to the scenario & is determined by the initial objective(s). To answer your question regards paring/exiting the short this morning? Yes, it was pared off as price failed to move thru the main pivot/38.2 Fib (9490) on the second attempt. The full position wasn't worth risking given the close proximity of the news print. But the fact it was a compound entry, the risk has already been absorbed from the original entry, & the intial trade was valid & in-line with the trend. It's up to the market to tell us we're wrong! My job is to calculate risk, evaluate the potential for the initial move to offer decent reward & execute according to my strat signals. As long as my/our parameters are in synch with leverage & appropriate sizing, if it goes belly up Buk & his hoppo's take up the slack.

Can't really argue against that! Particularly if you're employing a jobbing strat.

I guess you shorted it already off the doji at the 61.8%

Keep an eye on that 78.6 noted on your 15m graph from yesterdays activity. It marries the confluence (61.8/R1 pivot) posted on the prev chart. If price skips thru this intraday 61.8 (from y'days H-L) & makes a run for the R1, it could offer a test (short) of this lower high wave?

Yes, there's certainly nothing very tempting about triggering a fresh position on Cable so far this morning Steve. Shorts from yesterday haven't really been threatened & won't be until price hurdles that R1/61.8% combo @ c9540. Until that initial upside barrier folds, it's containing this thing in a depressed tone. UK CPI-RPI prints in a couple hours with the Stateside Trade Balance numbers out later. We'll get a better feel for the appetite then I guess.

There's a good bit of support underneath the 78.6 trigger teroro where that 38.2 marker from the larger swing hits on? A couple larger pivot zones also match up with this lower top zone. I guess it depends on how you see the mid-frame price activity panning out. 238.50-239 certainly needs to break with some follow thru support to encourage a push back toward the upper limits of +240.0. This appears suspect to a drop back to the 234.70 (50%) support line in the short term unless this mid-term behaviour gets shaken out? As for triggering that particular (78.6) touch?? The larger Fib certainly offered a level in which to tuck your stop in order to test any GBP upside. It certainly marries a price based support line on the mid-frames.

Similar scenario of the Franc this morning. Since the move up from the demand zone thru 2470, it's hurdled the pivots on good follow thru, currently re-testing last weeks high. The stiffer resistance activity rests farther ahead @ 2550-75, where the 78.6 is waiting. This pair signalled the less risky trigger for me, & has popped along quite nicely.

Yeah, it's also todays S1 level (9440), which price has just bounced off. Looking like it's merely a resting stop, judging the potential demand down here. If it fails to convincingly break back above 9475-80, it will soak up this demand & no doubt begin sniffing out more stops below. 9485 is the 38.2% of this mornings H-L.

If I were you I'd be congratulating myself!! You're regularly spotting these opportunities And more importantly, you're analyzing correctly where your optimum risk ought to lie in accordance with the signals? The more you practice observing a particular set-up/signal & it's (results) expectancy, the more you'll strengthen your ability to wrap a workable play around similar occurances? As long as you can obtain value & decent risk in order to 'test' any new set-up you'll be on the right track. It's mostly about observation & practice. Certain elements just click with some folks. Once you find something which suits your style/timeframe & risk balance, you'll feel more comfortable about triggering it. There are many folks out there who never manage to get where you are now! Just continue to attract the stuff which sparks your interest & take your time to thoroughly evaluate it - to ensure it sits correctly with your attitude to risk & objectives. If it doesn't, then bin it quickly, otherwise it will haunt you & distract you from the important aspects of your work! Just because a certain set-up or strategy appears funky to one person, doesn't equate that it'll sit right with the next person!! Most of it gets constructed inside the head and if the head aint comfortable, then the strat won't work.

Well, we're still floating inside a demand zone all the way down to Fridays low. So, this channel could well get supported. I guess we'll soon unearth the bias as London gathers pace. PPI will no doubt whip up some interest if the actuals get kicked against consensus. The Franc has triggered a decent entry above the S1 thru 2470 off the 30/5min bars? Nice higher low demand for that pair!

Yes, that's where he snapped it - at those lower top 5m neutral bars. That's all the confirmation we look for generally when price pumps & fails at that Fib, especially if it's also confirming a higher timeframe failure. Can be a tad risk(ier) at those levels, but the stop/risk placement stacked up, with plenty of time to test it into the London Open.

Hi Steve, The 1.9600 also harbours the Monthly Pivot adding to the weight up there. Price hit the 78.6 barrier this morning into pre-London trade from Fridays high-low numbers, which is where one of the guys have shorted it from earlier. He's looking for a snap back towards the 1.95 Big Figure with a view on scaling down towards Fridays lows.

If you’re referring to the majority of in-house shops trunking feeds thru a manned operation, then you have a point. Someone striking out with an adequately capitalized funding base (if trading is their main income earner), won’t have too much trouble locating (& negotiating with) a spot facilitator. I guess it boils down to your style & objectives. Most serious contenders play, or at least have access to, both options.

As you’ve quite rightly alluded to, there’s no such luxury within the Foreign Exchange environment. And apart from the futures camp, volume prints won’t afford you a very reliable take on the cash movements either, well certainly not with sufficient enough accuracy to warrant any kind of consistant strategy to be compiled around that tactic anyway. I guess you’ve witnessed the candle prints forming on & around key levels? Big Figures (00’s), prev zones of weekly/monthly supply & demand (highs-lows), intra-range swing zones etc? These levels provide workable clues as to the propensity of a pairs ability to continue or stall-out/reverse. Such is the cross section of agenda’s at these levels from the differing camps (aggressive intra-day specs/large non-commercial activity/Bank desks working customer orders etc), you’ll often spot candle or bar prints which if utilized with typical math gauges, offer pretty good entry/exit levers. I guess it depends on which type of trader you are & the specific strategies you employ as price buffers these common zones of interest? But volume/pressure isn’t always necessary. After a while observing the price activity around the “obvious†levels, you’ll begin to get a feel of how reactive they are & the likely build up of each-way traffic residing there. Doji’s, neutral prints, engulfing, inside/outside patterns occur for a reason!! Team that up with WHERE they print & WHERE they lay in relation to the trend or range, & you can begin to develop a plan (& a contingency) to take advantage of the price journey. There are brokers out there with ladders in which they'll display best & cumulative bid-ask availability. But again, it's only indicative of that specific suppliers traffic. A broker which clears thru a rolling tranche of suppliers will only offer bid-ask traffic available at that time. It's not what you're seeking, but then nothing (with any degree of accuracy) exists to facilitate your requirements anyway as far as I'm aware.

Yeah, they're certainly worth keeping on the radar. We prefer to use them as price buffers a confluence zone in & around their vicinity. I'd imagine the smart money is sidelined now until the UK Rates decision prints. Just in case they throw another curve ball onto the plate like last month. The UK economy is continuing to gather steam, so I guess the Bank bigwigs will be chewing the cud over the recent data. We also got the G7 convening at the weekend, they won't be too eager to lump on big bets until the fog clears on that soiree.

Well played on this mornings move Steve! I see you've configured the 78.6 on your graphs Yesterdays move up off (what is currently) the new weeks lows also sniffed a 78.6 from the recent short swing, which buffeted a Daily s&r zone. Handy markers to keep tabs on huh? - particularly if they marry a hard based level etc Swiss has also triggered a couple good opp's lately nudging that number!

Yes, I 'sort of' covered it in the prev reply - but it really does depend on your angle or strategy stance? If you're adopting a short frame stance & the 78.6 level is holding price around a key level or confluence zone from a higher timeframe, then obviously you'll be seeking price confirmation via one of the fast chart references, a tick, 1 or 5m trigger. If you're swinging in via a larger chart reference (60m+) & looking to pare out/compound/enter whatever, your decision making will be wholly dependant upon your aims for that specific trade? So yeah, the decisions & management etc will miror your intended stance. Ok guy's, I'm gonna have to wind down the activity on here for now. We're short staffed today & it's likely to be a bit busy later. Will catch up with any comments early next week! Have yourselves a safe & profitable session. Enjoy the weekend!

Like most anything to do with technicals (on FX anyway), you'd do well to focus more on the level or area of interest than merely wait for a random signal to emerge. Doesn't matter what the trigger or set up is, if a confluence of events (a Fib number/pivot/% range marker/whatever you use) occurs on or around a Big Figure or prev zone of s&r, prev swing extreme etc, then you can bet other players are looking at same zone? Of course, same warning!! nothing is guaranteed or nailed on - but if a specific favorite signal/set-up comes into focus, the bar or candle prints need to confirm your intended directional play. The 78.6 has proven it's worth over time under the conditions we choose to operate. To others it may simply register no interest whatsoever. As with all things: check it out & thoroughly test it out

Depends on your aims for this specific trade toreor? Your stops are nudging this hourly upside thrust at the 9625 zone. Most of the long stops off the 1.95 kick will be resting below today's Pivot line @ 1.96, which is also the 50% marker of the 9315-9915 leg. Prices could just amble back if the next Data print (ISM) fails to ignite Cable thru the weekly highs? I guess you have to judge the trade in the context of why you executed it.

Yeah, it's softly softly this morning in London trade. Most folks are still digesting the recent data in relation to the Feds statement. The emphasis will home in even more so on the Data now, given the outlook on inflation/growth prospects. Players will certainly be eyeing todays & tomorrows prints for further clues, hence the contained ranges into the NY Open. Like hokshila mentioned, end of month balancing & protection ahead of tomorrows Payrolls will have played it's part.

Yes torero. Consensus was for a 52.0 reading v/s prev print of 51.6. Quite a few desks were actually gearing up for +52.5 It hit the tape at 48.8.

A few of us were chatting earlier about the opportunities available today across all the pairs. One of the guy's here bases one of his strats around pivots hugging key confluence zones at supply-demand levels. Every one of the majors has popped off a math line today, a couple of them at snappy confluence zones too. Usually at least 2 of 4 majors will signal a trade or two during the day - & at least 2-3 very decent opps per week across the 4 pairs, but today has been a case of "eeny meeny mynee mo" Man, just look at some of those bars printing at the levels too. You could be forgiven for assuming one could cobble a workable strat around these things huh? LOL. ps: Don't even go there Buk

Yes, that's a fair point Steve. Also be mindful of the impending data. Today we have the GDP printing at 8.30, followed by Construction Spending at 10.00 EST. The former could spike off this Round Number if it disappoints. Not to mention the later FOMC gibberish! But then, there's been sufficient space to leg out & cover some of the position if the entry was tight thru the triggers?!

Bit of a dead loss at current levels on this one. We're mired halfway between 2 crossroad levels on the 240/Daily techs, with half a dozen market moving data prints (incl NFP's) still to hit the tape. Bit of a coin toss as to which direction it'll get thumped to be honest, but the key level to upside momentum still resides at 9733. Worth holding remainders back at the b/e down at y'days entry to get a run on any insipid U.S data, but the lower top behaviour on the 240 isn't too encouraging. Probably less stress involved to bat this pair via the intradays until Friday closes out & then take another assessment from there.