Anna-Maria

ok, I'll try explain a little clearer what I view as the important criteria? My observations are primarily based around the 24hr activity. My session markers begin at the Asian open (7.00pm EST) & ends at the next New York closing zone @ 17.00 EST. My main frame of reference is the Asian session high-low (from 19.00 EST thru to 03.00 EST ), this offers me my bracket barriers for the next London open shift. So, therefore I'm using 19.00 EST Tuesday to 17.00 EST Wednesday as my template for the current price activity research. My R1-2 & S1-2 levels are derived from the 17.00 EST close & adjudged from there. They're merely guides based on the "normal" range behaviour which I've calc'd from Cable's price oscillation inside the extreme moves - in other words, when Cable fails to run into a Big Day move (in excess of it's average daily range of approx 120pips), these levels normally contain the range levels. They're of little relevance once price busts thru these levels.....this tells me we're in for some pretty heavy action, which normally ensues as price breaches a consolidation or ranging phase.

I've just shorted (smaller than avg position) this bust of the Asian low/pullback level.... It requires "watching" due to close vicinity of this 1.89 Big Number, hence the smaller stake size. I'll take some off at the Round Number to protect my stops & reduce the risk. I have next level price s&r zone on my 240m @ c8870 - I'll get the remaining stakes to b/e should price bust thru this Round Number & look to further pare out as price moves to next stage (c8870).

Nothing really setting up for me this morning thus far. Price being contained within the Asian range & the s&r levels in early London trade. We have the B.O.E quarterly inflation report printing in an hour, + the NY Fed releasing their Manufacturing Index Report @ 8.30am EST. Of course the main item of today's calendar will be the F.O.M.C minutes @ 14.00 EST, & likely the main players will simply be sitting tight until these releases print. The fact we've moved a couple cents this week already & the weekly trend is negative, it's not particularly surprising Cable is catching it's breath. A case of 'wait see'.....no hurry, they'll be more productive opportunities when price opens out again

torero: In reference to your question re: prev sessions H-L prints.... I use the prev 2 sessions highs & lows as my initial extreme reference guides. Price stopped at these levels for a reason? Therefore, as price moves towards them again, I'll be aware of the possible reaction around these levels. Should they coincide with a Fib zone from a prior swing point, all the better, as it strengthens that particular zone....if not, I'll treat them as "potential to react" - nothing more. I tend to observe these lines as merely "observation guides"...nothing's set in stone, PRICE dictates the journey, based upon supply & demand. If the consensus dictates price will bust a prev level of activity due to the strength of activity, so be it. If enough traders become spooked at a prev zone of s&r, then price will stall - it's the bars/candles behaviour around these levels which influence my decision....the observation lines simply assist in my decision making process. My risk (stops) & position stake sizing will control my entry/pares/exits - what price decides to do in the meantime is out of my control, I don't have any influence on that part of the equasion. I can only control my reactions to it/them

Hey surfer. It's only the CLOSING price which I use to determine the S1&2 R1&2 levels from. These levels are representative of an average deviation of price, based on it's previous behaviour traits. ie: when prices fail to break out into a large move, they will be contained within a 35 to 50% barrier from the prev sessions closing print. Thus, if prices are ranging or edging into a consolidation phase, I'll look to sell R1/2 & buy S1/2, providing the candles/bars set up & trigger me in accordingly... As to your prev chart posting?....the Asian range has not yet completed. Personally, I want to see this range complete as London opens for business (03.00 EST) before I plot my H-L levels to completion. At the moment, 8920 is signalling the Tokyo low level.....it also coincides with my S1 level. Thanks for your comments

Regards correlation: I'm aware of the positive/negative correlation between pairs, but they play little part in my short-term strats. Given I trade the Cable predominantly via this momentum set-up, I'm more concerned with this pairs behaviour (both technical & fundamentally), than I am with the effects of it's trading cousins. The Tokyo high-low range is often a pre-cursor for the London breakout. Prices will be contained during Asian trade and/or get shuffled back & forth from the N.Y close if the prev London-N.Y sessions have resulted in a Big Day (reasonably large move). Sure, you'll experience 'false breakouts/2b type scenario's' on the Tokyo-London overlap, but that's why I prefer to trade these events via a pullback. The Tokyo-London switch over can quite often be the signal for the "move of the day" - if it busts the upper or lower s&r guides, then it's highly likely to print a Big Day I don't use the main pivot point at all in my observations for this set-up. I work principly off the prev sessions (NY) closing price & adjudge my s&r levels from there. As I mentioned in a prev post, I religiously record the H-L-C data from each sessions activity & keep an eye on the % movements for each session. I will then go back at the end of each month/quarter & compare the volatility, any extreme disparity from prev months data + merely confirm whether or not my closing price % s&r zones require adjusting to reflect any change in price activity. Markets never stand still, there are always new occurances which affect it's journey. By keeping clear & precise records of each pairs month-on-month activity, I can better see these changes & oscillations. Which is why I prefer to use these specific % markers as my guide!

torero: These are the brackets I have for the Euro. I won't plot the Asian levels until Frankfurt opens at 02.00 EST (which it just has). This will now give me the Asian H-L as: 2817-2799....kissing the R1-S1 % levels from last nights close. Remember though, I don't trade Euro on momentum plays - it's too cumbersome & lacks the speed/agility of Cable. Euro is more suited to swing plays (for my purposes anyway).

ok, so we have tomorrows s&r levels from today's close: R1=8983 R2=8996 S1=8920 S2=8907 We've travelled down 2c since Monday's open & approaching the 38% (8920)marker of the larger 240m swing from 8517-9180. The S2 also coincides with the (1.89) Big Number, so should price get pressured toward this support zone, we might encounter some whippy activity?! Will mosey in tomorrow morning & plot the Asian range barriers....see if anything likely sets up!

You sure got that right! We're our own worst enemies when it comes to issues regarding success & failure. When first entering the trading arena, most folks are scared stiff of losing, yet losing trades, if properly managed, are nothing more than business costs. Every business attracts costs, it's a natural course of activity. Eventually, if the trader persists & gradually expands his/her skill base, not only do the 'specifics' begin to engender confidence, but the actual experiences & awareness transfer (if they're fortunate) into "an edge" Locating your "edge" is the ultimate goal....reaching that goal requires "specific action"....both negative & positive. Trouble is, most folks are too busy worrying about not succeeding than focusing on the positives of losing.

Thanks for the feedback fella's, glad to hear it strikes a chord A little insight to what I plot on the larger timeframes. I won't post up the Weekly/Daily frames, as they're more or less self explanatory. The main gist of those 2 big dogs are the main swing Fibs and/or bar behaviour which prints on them. As with the smaller frames, I'm merely seeking some kind of confirmation of the current price action (trending/ranging/consolidating etc). It's the lower 2 frames which I focus on more intently for this set-up play. I pitch up the 'obvious' horizontal s&r levels & then map the 240m swing Fibs to see how far or close they print in relation to any hard price based s&r levels. If a confluence exists, all the better - if not, I'll merely observe the 5/15m price bars as they begin to threaten these area's....once again, I'll look to these zones for paring out partial positions and/or full exits. The lines get updated as price meanders up & down the ladder. The only Fib levels I bother with are from the Daily/240m frames. I don't really consider anything lower than that on the Fib front.

All, any questions/comments welcome. Not much use posting commentary if it's not open to ineraction I'll try post regular observations on here (both positive & negative) as triggers set-up, and time permitting, as close to live scenario's as possible.

Thought I'd kick off a fresh thread try keep some of these strat ramblings in one place. Don't want to disrupt Raul's specific 'breeze' comments or send other threads off on a tangent etc. That way, folks can ask questions, comment & add their own bits & bobs to the content. Was touching on a couple elements of this strat with torero & Soultrader earlier in the chat-room, & thought it might prove helpful to sling a chart up to better explain today's reasonings & subsequent postings. Basically, I have very little clutter on the charts. Wherever possible, I look to run with the current flow - observing the 240 & 60m frames will offer me a heads up to the current scenario. I'm only really interested in executing via the short-term momentum on this set-up, therefore I want to plot my overnight resistance/support lines (35&50% of the prev day's 5.00pm NY close), + the Asian high-low, which I determine from midnight London (19.00 EST) thru to the 8.00am (03.00 EST)London open. I'm a discretionary price action trader - I don't observe indicators, system rules, EA parameters, mov avg crossovers or any other fancy nik nak's. I plot horizontal s&r lines via the 240/60m frames & am aware of those timeframe scenario's: ie, whether Cable is forming lower tops/higher bottoms/ranging/trending/chanelling etc. But primarily, I follow the candle/bar footprints. I want to see neutral-exhaustive behaviour @ resist-supp levels....I also prefer to witness price adhering to the short-term flow or trend. I also prefer to execute this set-up during the London morning shift. I'll take price on at other times sure, but my most productive periods usually ensue on an Asian range bust of the early London flow. I won't chase price on the back of a data release spike. If the Asian b/o is nudging close to an important UK data print, I'll let it go & attempt to pick it up via a pullback opportunity, providing it's running with the general flow. Same consideration for Stateside data. I'm only concerned with sensible, reactionary behaviour....NFP or other Grade A spike material isn't part of my remit. I'll leave those knee-jerk gambling throws to others. I use the % s&r levels as either exit points or paring opportunities. Stops are positioned above a prev high in a downtrend/low in an upkick. Once partial profits are removed, I'll hike the stops to b/e. If price continues, I'll trail them to near term waves on the 15/5m charts or farther out to the hourly reference (if price really shifts). As I said, I trade on a discretionary basis, experience & awareness of your instrument(s) is crucial taking this route, which will only develop over time. I don't trade every day, neither do I take every single opportunity....each trade has to stack up on it's own merits! If in the slightest doubt, I remain sidelined. There are plenty of opportunities to execute A Grade set-ups across the trading calendar month, the markets aint going anywhere - I'd much rather be "out wishing I was in, than in wishing I was out" anyhow, once again, today offered up a pretty typical opportunity....... short-term trend is down, lower tops on the 240/60, 9050 offering decent resistance ambling into London thus reflecting today's S2 zone. price backed away from the Round Number (9110) edging into the London open, bracketing today's Asian range. It failed to take out the Asian top (9050) & popped thru the low on the back of the UK CPI print. The trade is highlighted on the accomanying 5m chart, with supporting price aid info....the 2nd opp is also highlighted - again post-U.S data, making a bee-line for the earlier resistance zone, which reacted handsomely with my favored Fib number - the 78.6%, before falling away nicely to set up a further pullback shorting opp. torero: hope this post further clarifies our brief conversation in the room!

Hey Raul No problem man! I ought to have read/browsed the Forum properly before slinging up a question. But like you, trading is pretty hectic of late, & time isn't my greatest friend this Quarter I had a good scoot around the Forum when London closed, & Soultrader kindly fast-tracked your doc for me, so I've had a lookey thru the content & chat log etc.. Ya, I'll try step into the room if I get the chance (can't promise I'll be in there long, but thanks for the invite). Nice to meet your aquaintance too, look forward to contributing to this place more as time permits - some pretty cool content on here with sensible, straight talking commentary......a rare occurance on the majority of retail trading forums!! Good stuff, take care & good trading to you Anna-Maria.

Good, sensible points!! You certainly can't get much simpler than this strategy - no clutter, nice simple rules & good opportunities to compound profits with trailing stops after paring out initial profits (well, on the FX anyway). I'm sure those who use it consistantly will find it very effective.

you're welcome. I'm sure it's been mentioned on here someplace, but in case not: before anyone goes hell for leather incorporating a singular or combination piece of someone else's analysis into their arsenal......TEST IT - & test it thoroughly! consistancy (or success) is measured not by how many pips you pull out of the market over a short, sharp period of "hot activity" - but by finding a method which suits your psychological approach to your preferred instrument & adopting a simple, workable template. nothing works all of the time. but adopting a consistant plan & adhering to the similar signals will tell you 'when it's working or not' capital preservation should be No 1 priority - period....when the market isn't playing ball (according to your strats), get the hell out & stay out until it slips back into line (according to your rules). never force your strat, never chase the markets & definitely don't start tinkering or changing anything just because you've gone several day's without a market entry signal....it happens to all strats! keep it nice & simple, keep it "price based" & use as few price aids (indicators) as you can possibly get away with such is the increased participation & liquidity in FX, you won't have to wait too long before your favorite instrument begins to open out & set up again....patience & discipline, they're your best friend when trading these animals!!

Soultrader: The 35/50% s&r levels played out again today! Printed a neutral bar at the high of the Tokyo shift (50% resistance level), & cont'd down thru the Asian low as London came on board - triggering on the break of the Asian low (London Open) signalled good momentum today the lower 2 support lines only briefly tested before bottoming out into the London close @ the Big Number/78.6% (from recent swing move)...... Briefly glancing at Raul's "Breeze" Strat, looks like he executes a similar simple, yet effective momentum based trigger.....I'll have a more in-depth read of it later!

Ahh, ok much appreciated I just couldn't see a link to the 2, that's all. I'll have a peek later on!

Hi Raul, Are these entries/targets part of a defined session H-L trigger? I had a browse farther down the thread, only thing I could see was mention of a bracket (monthly bar) zone. You setting orders on any particular price/line breach?

no problem!

Hey torero, London is the big dog where volumes are concerned, & that translates across most of the high liquidity products. Approx 60% of New York activity is transacted during the London morning shift & the overlap from Tokyo (thru till around 9.30am GMT) affects the early doors activity - hence a lot of talk around the bulletin boards re: Asian breakout trade entries? The London-New York overlap is the main focus after late a.m London trade has settled down, & volumes then dry up noticeably as London shuts for the day. Wellington/Sydney is of little relevance to the main European pairs, so I wouldn't waste your energy even observing that open tick activity. Much of Tokyo trade (certainly on the Cable & Euro) is confined to position management via the tier 1 & 2 shops - you'll often notice volumes starting to uptick as Tokyo emerges from their lunch break (5.00am GMT), particularly if price has been edged back from prev session highs-lows in late NY trade. Whenever price has printed a Big Day or broken out of a niggly range containment, I'll start to get interested in the following Tokyo shift - other than that, I'll merely monitor prices (if already positioned) & engage or pare off as London comes to the table.

Here's one such example currently playing out on the micro timeframe (5m). I'll certainly be eyeballing this present scenario as Tokyo wakes up later. Price is bobbing along in a pretty crucial zone up here, & if the Cable Bulls are intent on keeping hold of the rope, they'll wanna contain this push to new yearly highs. Plenty of space below to pick it back up should Friday's close continue a southbound tack, with 9050 & 8970 likely support camps to re-engage longs - see if the UK PPI can exert a little influence. Just thought I'd sling this up, as it appeared on the radar anyway

Here are the 2 attachments I referred to in prev post: 1st snag is a 240m run of the higher low back off the Daily ceiling kick @ c9050 2nd from the 60m run back from a second attempt to attack the months highs above 1.91 - the 78.6 forming a higher low at a pretty decent Big Number support.

I used to mark them religiously a few years back & used the 38 & 62% (on the 240m+ frames) as either paring or compound levels, according to the flow of the trend. But since the influx of more & more retailers into the fray, specially during the past 3 or 4 yrs, the majors have changed their behaviour around the Big Fib levels. Well, certainly the way I traded them. I don't really pay them too much mind, other than when they marry a hard s&r confluence zone. Like I said, the 78.6 is a favored observation if it happens to hit on a Round Number/prev swing point. I focus on the mid-term momentum plays quite a bit these day's, utilizing the 240-5m combo. That Fib point often gets me in with decent r/r - or gets me out at a keen pare level. I'll haul up a couple attachments to better explain the reasonings. It's merely something I've gotten used to consulting on the Euro/Cable....like most things, it can be eyeballed pretty easily once you hone certain elements down to a consistant play. I don't tend to complicate matters when executing via the technicals. I leave all the mumbo jumbo systems baloney to the grail chasers!! Let them chase their tails all over the park - I'd rather clip the price bars as & when they show me a favored set-up

Hi Soultrader yeah, basically they're my initial support/resistance guides - with the NY close being the fulcrum. They work & react best when price is cosseted inside a range zone. Their effectiveness is diluted a tad when price breaks out & prints consecutive "Big Day's" - which it often does on the majors when they go on a run. But then, each trading behavioural shift has to be traded with very differing tools anyhow! Soon as you get a heads up as to which phase we're entering, it's merely a case of swapping toolboxes Fib ratio's are a common them for sure, & on that score I really like the 78.6% number!! If you like your Fib barriers, keep an eye on that calc.....it's led to 2x2c pay-day's on Cable with relative ease the past six weeks (on the 60 & 240m frames). the 78.6 can be even be played on the 5m (not usually a timeframe I'd use ANY speficic technical observations on) pretty consistantly. I hasten to point out: these tools & their observations are taken from the FX instruments, how they pan out on other instrument classes is unbeknown to me as I rarely trade outside this arena.

carter: I keep a detailed spreadsheet of the main instrument(s) I predominantly trade. Those being Euro & Cable. Basically, I record the daily Open-High-Low & percentage change bias on these babies, & categorize them into "normal" & excess range parameters. Excluding the abnormal range extremes, both these pairs spend the majority of their lives clipping between those 2 aforementioned % barriers. so, I calc the 35 & 50% long/short measure away from the prev day's close & use those 4 levels (2 resist & 2 support measures) as my next day's observation points. If it's likely to be a Big day, one or either side of those s&r levels will get taken out during the early to mid London shift. If range play's are the order of the day, those levels will generally dictate the flow. if they happen to confluence a prev swing high-low or key Fib number, all the better - but I prefer to use actual price range behaviour rather than an arbitrary math calc, which Pivots are essentially derived from. hope that helps explain.