Anna-Maria

An alternative to the European instruments this week, given the data releases due for print, could well be CAD. It's nudging a key weekly level & houses some pretty good step levels which will attract each-way interest from it's recent journey.

Monday kicks off with Cable consolidating at the top side of Friday's range play. Reasonable near term support rests at c8930 on the 60m frame, with the Round Number (1.89) offering secondary support ahead of last weeks Fib activity @ 8850. To the upside, 8975 & 1.90 psychological resistance are marked on the 60m as the 1st line targets for the (Cable) Bulls. I'll be waiting to draw in my Asian range H-L barriers as usual, to guage the early week flow & either side potential....the data cupboard is relatively light leading into Thursdays Thanksgiving Holiday, so we could well witness reduced flows (& pockets of spikey volatility on Cable) this week. The 15m frame below plots the S&R 1-2 lines for todays play.

Hey James, I've sussed out what was wrong - they've loaded ok now! Cheers, Anna-Maria.

Ohh...something didn't quite work out as it should have there?! Maybe James or you torero, can let me know what went wrong on that attempt? I was thining, maybe we could initiate a fresh weekly thread for these FX ramblings? It would keep the thread post count within sensible parameters, so that folks wouldn't have to plough thru page after page of continuous info? Maybe kick each week off on a Sunday. And rather can header it as simply a "Cable" thread, I thought maybe logging each week by it's appropriate week number?....Like next weeks thread: Week 48? That way, different pairs can be hauled up onto it by folks, & a variety of content can be viewed, keeping it all within one observation area? Yeah, no??

ok, I'm gonna give your 'chart posting' explanation a whirl & see if I can upload these Swiss charts the way yo advised, to show the reasonings behind our choice to trade them rather than striking via Cable yesterday morning. If I mess up 1st time out, I'll re-post on the next message :rolleyes: Right, we'll see how that pans out!! (Hopefully) you'll see why we were paying att'n to Swiss at this level on Friday morning. We've already executed it twice recently as it moseyed back up the ladder towards the 78% decision zone. Like Cable, we've found Swiss displays pretty consistant behaviour on both intraday momentum plays as well as swing behaviour traits. Swiss has a high correlation to Euro, & stacks up well against Cable. If Cable is playing silly beggers around a scrappy s&r zone, we'll often turn our att'n across to Swiss, especially if it's in the vicinity of one of our 'watch zones' - which this pair was y'day. Not surprisingly, these types of entry criteria allow good r/r bias & offer decent risk/stop placement in the event of it turning ugly. Both from an intraday standpoint as well as a swing potential move. This now affords us a two-pronged benefit....decent pare out to book intraday profit + compound positioning for the possibility of continued swing movement in the direction of the prevailing trend!

Glad you're finding the info helpful There's really nothing much different to trading FX than other instrument classes. James trades the Index Futures via pure price action with the added assistance of market internals - which is a pretty sensible option. Price action is price action, however you wish to interpret it. Sure, different investment vehicles attract slightly unique behavioural traits & react differently to their own internal market structure. But on the whole, if you possess a good understanding of how price behaves at specific junctures on the technical map, & how the "herd" might interpret that activity, then wrapping a workable strategy or two around the psychological cog of the markets becomes a tad easier. It's merely a % game at the end of the day. If your strats are sufficiently robust & the risk-size management is well versed, then you have a little breathing space to work from when the market spoofs you every now & again! I'm certain you, like other index traders on here, won't have too much trouble in adjusting to the ebb & flow of FX. If you can trade one asset class with relative success, it's merely a matter of familiarization & market behaviour awareness when transferring att'n across to another instrument vehicle!

Well, what was turning out to be a dire couple days, sparked into life dramatically on the print of the horrendous Housing Numbers. That really was a shocker & spooked the short-term ($) longs big style. It brings the focus of reduced Interest Rates back onto the front burner & raised fears the Housing downturn could knock onto the general economy. I wasn't looking at the Cable as NY hit the desks, preferring to turn my/our attention to the Franc instead. It was cranking back towards our favorite 78.6% Fibo line on the hourlies from the recent 2575-2355 decline. To be honest, it wasn't such a big deal to get aboard any of the pairs after the numbers printed. They all offered a leisurely entry & simply edged away hansomely. Hope folks were able to take advantage of the late week bonus!!....cause it's sure been scrappy since Wed.

I forgot to post this yesterday whilst we were discussing inside/outside bars, and although this thread is geared towards Cable commentary, I wanted to highlight the positives of observing other instruments when looking for specific set ups. Inside bars have been relatively scarse on Cable of late, but on it's European cousin (Euro), the opp's have been plentiful past couple months. It's worth noting, many of the better risk opportunities occur as & when price approaches & prints these bars on the Round or Big Figures. I don't think I need to point out the psychological relevance of these levels, the price activity normally speaks for itself, but good success is consistanly available on & around the Big Numbers. By drilling down into the smaller timeframes as these Daily bars set up, allows tighter & more manageable risk/stop placements. They're a pretty cool indication of increasing "stand-off" or hesitation at these levels, & you'll often witness 1 & 4hr neutral bar formations taking place, further assisting in managing an effective entry/pare/exit scenario. Anyhow, hope it helps to maybe encourage closer focus of the Daily bar prints, especially as price ambles towards these key levels.

torero: Sure, occasionally I'll trigger before London opens it's doors. Generally those occurances will ensue when we're trending pretty cleanly & we witness a clean pullback during the Asian shift. Price often pulls back to a definitive line (either a prev day's high-low marker or maybe a Fib line?) & prints a series of neutral bars: doji's/spinning tops at the high-low of said level, then moves away in the direction of the dominant trend. On those occasions, if I'm at the screens, I'll trigger an early entry or compound. During consolidation or basing ranges however, experience has taught me to wait until London opens before executing. It really depends on the range which prints during Tokyo trade. Shallow ranges can prove difficult to judge. They often spike & fake either end of the range. I guess a lot of it comes down to experience of watching each scenario & prior history of how individual scenario affects price at these differing levels. Regards your comment about the Tokyo-London overlap: Yeah, it can get a little wild & whippy as London opens & Tokyo closes. Particularly around end of month-quarter when accounts & funds are in the process of 'book balancing' It's wise to keep your wits about you on those occasions Friday's are hit & miss to be honest. I don't have any conclusive records which highlight any kind of negative-positive bias to trading Fridays. I tend to judge each session/day on it's own merits. Thing about currencies: The slightest fundamental or political output can send these things crazy at the best of times LOL....those events can just as easily occur on a Friday as they can on any other day of the week! "Play it as you see it" that's my motto....

Ya, it's pretty much popping around yesterday's range boundaries. My Tokyo barriers are slightly different. I tend to wait until London hits the tape @ 8.00am before loading up the H-L markers, but a few pips here or there isn't really a big deal - it's more the "zone" of reaction which is important. I have the low of the Asian kissing the S2, but I don't guess we'll fall out over a few pips The positives are, price is continuing to run with the dominant intra-week trend, so maybe we might get a test & pop of the weekly-monthly lows? Other than that, as you say - if a decent price opportunity sets up off one of these s&r levels, then a quick intraday entry could reveal itself..... Another case of patiently waiting for it to reveal it's intent!!

Well, we got the spinning top inside bar on the Daily. And I have my s&r markers for tomorrows London opening tick.... See where the Tokyo shift takes it tonite. The data cupboard is empty for tomorrow, barring the Housing Starts which hit the tape @ 8.30 EST. Tomorrow also see's the start of the G20 finance ministers/central bank meeting in Melbourne, no doubt folks will be all of a sweat poring over the jawboning from those great minds! :rolleyes: Hard to say whether prices will make a run for the range extremes or not, given we're edging into the w/end, but I guess we'll get the nod as London opens the gate.

Providing price remains contained inside today's Asian shift range, & the S1 zone, the Daily will print an inside bar. Only the 2nd such occasion in recent month's - the last one printing on the 8th Nov. That occurance merely faked price 30 odd pips to the downside before retreating back inside the range, running up to the yearly highs. Generally, inside/outside bars printing at key levels attract decent att'n and a break can be the pre-cursor to a good move (in the direction of the break). Obviously, nothing is guaranteed in trading, but these scenario's are sure worthy of a little extra focus. Be interesting to see how it plays out!

Hey torero Yeah, that's what I like bout Raul's approach - you can take advantage of small pockets of price movements around key zones with decent size/achievable target ratio's. Once you get to grips with how to execute that type of play, it can be a pretty neat account compounder Regards news events: Whatever pair or cross you're trading, it's key to be aware of the potential market moving data. Currencies are ultra sensitive to data, particularly that which impacts the forward looking structure. Inflation data & Interest Rate news is especially sensitive. So too are the ramblings of the various Central Bank chiefs. Traders are always on the backfoot when these releases hit the wires. For Cable, all you need are the releases which affect that pair really....so trading the GBP/USD both sets of news items are relevant. I wouldn't really pay too much att'n to Yen news if I'm trading Cable....the knock on effects (to $ pos/neg news) can obviously roll over to other $ demoninated pairs, but on the whole, I generally only focus on the data coming out of London & NY in relation to Cable.

Sure, prev day's session high/lows are ok. Price stalled at those levels for a reason, same as they do at key levels on the larger timeframes. You'll generally find some confluence (Fibs, prev daily highs-lows-closes etc) on the 240m + frames which coincide with a previous zone of activity. Those levels assist in adding relevance to a potential entry or exit. Just observe the price bars on your smaller frames (5/15m) as the bars approach these levels to better guage the potential of next stage development.

Yeah, you need to be very careful around sensitive data surfer. A lot of folks get burnt badly engaging prior to, or attempting to bluff news releases. I was still looking for 'short' angles this morning in line with the intra-week trend, but the lower supports at this 8850 zone were holding price pretty good into early London trade & ahead of the Retail Sales. It was just too close for comfort (to the release) as price popped thru the Asian low for my liking. It wouldn't have done too much damage to "shorts" in this instance, but in the main it's prudent to be cautious when they're nearing their release on the clock.

Patience is a virtue.....sometimes!! Scrappy price action this morning leading into the UK Retail Sales release, which on this occasion, saved an awful lot of stress had you executed prior to the data. Although the low end of the Asian range was penetrated, price was bouncing off today's S1/240m Fib combo level. A dodgy, trappy zone indeed. These are typical trappy, high risk zones to execute. I've been caught with my pants down on a few occasions in the past attempting to do battle in these scenario's....never a pleasant experience!! This week has offered far more lucrative opportunities to engage, & I'm not partial to giving back profits needlessly, hence adopting a flat stance this morning. We have Stateside CPI & the TICS printing later in NY trade, that may or may not offer forth a tradeable opp....but for now, I'm flat & happy to remain so. Notice how the post-data spike bounced cleanly away from the Asian top?....cool huh Hope no-one was caught 'short' on that spikey affair

I wouldn't say there's a big difference really, particularly not for the average retail based trader looking to execute on smaller than avg size. There are pro's & cons with both alternatives. The spot market is a seamless 24hr vehicle. Although much of the liquidity on the majors subsides as London closes, it still remains pretty accessible. Liquidity on the Futures however, dries up noticeably 'out of hours' & slippage can sometimes be experienced. If an important item of news hits the market whilst the Futures market is quiet, the next session open can be a wild ride - this is where slippage & gap executions can be skewed. Folks bang on about the Spot market being much more heavily traded than the Futures, & lower commission structures etc....but in reality, unless you're obtaining STP/ECN facilities via your spot provider, you're paying your dues thru the spreads & only subject to the liquidity available within your brokers limitations anyway.... + you're not really trading the "actual market" rather the brokers desk prices! So, there are advantages & disadvantages to both methods of execution. If you're content in only trading during "normal market hours" & your execution bias is geared to intraday positioning via say the Euro, then Futures is a fair option. You get total transparency, you're dealing thru a fair medium with up front costs & good liquidity. Your only downside is occasional slippage, gaps & maybe the odd case of negative price availability, based on 'time of day' transaction! ps: Forgot to include, that I think you'll find the added attraction of most folks to the spot environment are the flag waving hard sell lures of increased leverage/low $ access....you'll see some brokers offering access into the markets from as low as $500 with 200:1 leverage? A very dangerous weapon in the wrong hands!! :rolleyes: But sales ploy's such as that + the constant barrage of "massive liquidity" blah blah draws in the unsuspecting in droves! Like anything else in life: There are no free lunches - read the small print & keep your wits about you

Your English seems fine from where I'm sat Personally, I think you made a wise decision in focusing your att'n on only 1 pair. Get to know the behaviour on ONE pair first (especially if this is your first introduction to currencies), it will instill confidence & hone your discipline/patience skills. Each pair display slightly differing price behavioural traits & due to the sensitive nature of Cable, it requires a patient & cautious approach. Cable likes to 'channel'....it also tends to extend or over-extend it's range moves, making it a decent candidate for trading false breaks (2b's) & 1-2-3 reversals. Once it breaks out or breaks down from a mini-trend move, it often slips into a tradeable channel for a day or two....similar to the 60m picture on the accompanying chart. I like to observe these patterns on the 60 & 240m charts. The lower tops/higher bottoms are easily identifyable & as they play out, I generally only look for intraday entries in the direction of the prominant trend. Once you determine your primary trend from these mid-frame chart references, it becomes a little easier to pin point your entries, which also allows you the luxury of placing good r/r stops. Cable's daily range is larger than it's fellow major instruments, another positive!....and upon data releases, it usually moves faster & farther than Euro/Swiss/Yen. Just be careful of it's spikey, whippy behaviour - especially around key levels. It has a tendancy to lure traders into false traps!!.....which means your set-ups/executions need to be tailored to it's unique behaviour traits. When it decides to "slap you" it hurts LOL... But, if you persist in experimenting with Cable & can build a sensible strategy around it's price behaviour, you'll have yourself a pretty consistant wage earner update: I'm now flat on today's positions, having been stopped out on final contracts as price meandered back to 8895. Although price has stalled at that level, I'm satisfied that zone represented fair value for my final stops!

surfer: I wouldn't know where to start re: recommending books etc. Fortunately, my & my brother & sisters trading education has come mainly via our Parents & their colleagues. In fact, they actively discouraged us from poring over trading related material when we were youngsters. During the past 10yrs or so, we've browsed various online sources etc & had a peek at a few journals/periodicals - but in the majority of cases, I realized why they directed us away from them in the first place I'm sorry I can't offer you any realistic avenues to persue, maybe other members might be able to assist in recommending said material?? I understand the Martin Pring material is supposed to be a decent reference? A guy called Steve Nison is also reckoned to attract favorable comments amongst traders for his straight-talking advice in his books...please don't take these as direct recommendations, as I've never referred to them personally. Also material like the sites below, which offer a base from which to explore further might be helpful?? Introduction to Candlesticks Candlestick Charts Explained If I were in your position, I'd ask around the Forum & see which other material folks have found helpful. Like I say, sorry I can't be of more help. As a matter of interest, how or what do you currently use to base your trading decisions on if you don't mind me enquiring?

Yes, you need to take care around these consolidation zones surfer. Price has a tendancy to lure money in, then zap it!! The lower risk (value) zone is when London kicks off, & out of it's early doors range level. On the occasions I miss the early break, or decide to let it go, I generally stand aside until either next session or unless price offers me a clear cut trigger to enter. This type of price action we're witnessing down around 8850 after a consistant morning move is very 'trappy' As with my normal entry criteria, I'd tend to wait for a break out, followed by a re-test or pullback, just to ensure the break is a genuine attempt to resume the flow. Sometimes it simply moves without pulling back....on those occasions, it's tough & I'll let it go without me - but playing safe usually protects me from inferior entries.

ok, cool!! Just be aware though, the % s&r levels/defined Asian range parameters etc which I plot are unique to the European pairs behaviour? I haven't undergone any in-depth study of the Australasian trading pairs. Their volatility, range extreme behaviour are likely to be different to the European trading instruments. The very structure of their volumes & participation will affect the research results. This needs to be considered if a similar strategy is deployed to trade those instruments. As ever - do your own research & apply due diligence Glad to hear you find the overall structure of how I approach Cable to be constructive & simple in it's application!!

Don't overcomplicate it. I mentioned in a previous post that I pay no attention whatsoever to the Wellington/Sydney activity. They have no effect at all on Cable's volumes either inside or outside of the London flows. The Tokyo-London-New York sessions are the focal point of activity in this pair - period!!....especially the 'overlap' periods, where Tokyo is winding down as London opens - and again when NY begins to crank up, & then London closes it's doors for the day. From 19.00 EST to 03.00 EST are the levels I'm interested in to determine my Asian range barriers. London is the hub of the main volumes across most of the majors. Outside of normal London trade, volumes dissipate noticeably. Therefore, the overlap from Tokyo to London, which encompasses the 03.00 EST to approx 04.30 EST is the first uptick activity zone....the next overlap occurs at 08.30 EST, when NY hits the desks, & the final wind down period of the FX trading day takes place @ midday-12.30 EST when London packs up for business. The vast majority of volumes are transacted within the London trading session. All the major Options activity occurs within this timeframe as does the main institutional & wholesale activity. It makes sense to focus one's attention around this timezone, especially if you're intending trading via an intraday or short-term momentum play. Which is why I place a lot of emphasis on the Asian range breakout potential & plot my s&r levels based around the end of the day's activity at the NY close. Those 2 occurances account for 95% of my short-term/momentum strategy base. All you really need do, is plot the Asian range, observe the prev 2 day's high-low levels (for a quick heads up to the initial barrier potential) & place some sensible near term levels to help guage the propensity of a trend continuation move and/or a possible reversal shunt against the secondary trend. That's all my momentum strat consists of....I'm not concerned what goes on in Sydney or Wellinton - only Tokyo/London & NY. The previous day's high-low (which covers the prior day's play) are notable levels to observe, as are the Asian range - that's it Keep it nice & simple - don't clutter your charts or your head!!

Looks like price has had enough on this run down to the 8850 Fib. I've trimmed out some more @ 8858 & have a tiddler left back up @ 8895. We'll see what occurs a little later when NY comes to the table!

So, where do we go from here?? If you look back at the 240m chart I posted up y'day, you'll observe we're approaching a 50% Fib @ 8850......a likely next stage (potential) reaction zone, given a good percentage of folks observe these levels religiously. Again, I'll want to see how the bars react to this level. I've moved stops down to 8895, above the large 5m thrust bar thru this 1.89 Round Number, thus compounding my remaining contracts..... One IMPORTANT RULE of trading - NEVER allow a winner to turn into a loseR!! No point playing the "hero" - you can't pull every available pip out of the market, but it's prudent to allow price to breath & test the short-term flow.....

Right....I've pared out more contracts at 8870 & moved remaining stakes to the b/e. These will now sit back at entry (8910) & remain there as I observe this journey & adjudge whether this current support zone is likely to hold water. If price kicks back looking for trailing stops, fair enough.....if it takes my remaining stops, then this present "intent" for price to continue isn't genuine. If it continues to move lower, I'll look for an appropriate level on my 15m/60m frames to trail my remaining contracts. I'm looking for the "genuine intent" of this move. If it attracts Bearish support, I'd expect it to continue down....if not, & this is merely a false pop, then I don't really want to be positioned. Simple - let price action tell me whether it's genuine or not!!