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Anna-Maria

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Everything posted by Anna-Maria

  1. Anna-Maria

    Week 49

    One or two Fib levels to keep in mind on the Cable, should the buck attract a few supporters off this current high. The 23.6 hits on yesterday's low zone, with the 50% marker nudging the high of the previous retrace leg kicker. Those 2 upper Fibs will have a lot to say regards the strength of any dollar retrace in my view, providing of course price actually manages to push that far. This pair is quite extended, which is nothing new for Cable, & for now it still remains a "dip buying" play. We still have the Core PCE & the ISM (Manuf) numbers in the print queue for the remainder of this week + another stint on the rostrom from Charlie Plosser at the eco/growth conference in Philly & Bernanke addressing the Research (Monetry Policy) Forum in our Capital on the same day. Don Kohn & Jeff Lacker are also scheduled to speak Friday, but most of the day's activity will have subsided by the time they take the stage. Still plenty of fun & games left in the bag into weeks end - remains to be seen how much energy the $ Bears have to run these Bulls a little farther
  2. Anna-Maria

    Week 49

    I guess if you're confident that the current fundamental is still to the $ neg, then triggering as close to the pre-gap support line (c9330) offers the better opp? It allows a decent r/r entry to test the further $ downside potential? Ignoring the spike high, the playable range is quite well defined. It's simply a case of what you perceive to be the lowest risk opportunity if you're considering triggering at all. Bear in mind, there's a whole slew of data/Cent Bank chatter this week - each camp will be trumpeting their side of the $ story! But for now, it's still dawing the magnet to the $ negative until the data proves otherwise.
  3. Anna-Maria

    Week 49

    They do occur every now & then. Thankfully, they're the exception rather than the norm. You were certainly in an advantageous timeframe across there Jack, if you'd considered trading the pullback But yeah, waiting for London to deal it's hand is probably the better option in these types of cases - wait for the genuine flow to reveal itself! Looks like Euro & Cable are the only one's not to fill their gaps at the mo.
  4. You must do whatever your strat or trading plans tell you to do when you arrive at the screen Monday morning. If you switch on tomorrow morning, observe the price action & still have to ask yourself that question, then it's apparent you don't possess any kind of plan or template for observing your chosen market? You don't of course have to do anything tomorrow! There are 3 positions when trading: Long, Short & Flat. If nothing's setting up - then do nothing. Wait until the market signals you in via your strategy for a specific event. Sometimes the best position to take is no position at all
  5. Anna-Maria

    Week 49

    The triple whammy of: thin holiday trade, renewed rumors of Central Bank diversification & potentially narrowing yields sent the $ Bulls scurrying for cover late last week. Much of late Thursday-all Friday activity can be attributed to technical bullying on the part of the Bears, as the Indx got shunted to these early summer lows. Next level reaction zones aren’t far off, with the 78.6 sandwiched between the focal points for Bear target area’s. These pairs are approaching oversold on the mid frames, and with trade cranking back to near normal levels next week, the emphasis will once more turn to the Data releases. The (ftrs) consensus regards a reduction of rates at the March 21 meeting shifted quite aggressively last week from 11% to 51% on the back of recent under par data output. Next weeks data bag is full of goodies on both sides of the pond, & with a heavy presence of Fed Chief rhetoric, the stage looks set for increased volatility!
  6. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    I've been asked whether I refer to any of the other Fibs numbers apart from the favored 78.6, which has cropped up in a few graph examples used to illustrate my set-ups/triggers. Sure, I use them as reference points. Not particularly as triggers or sole means of trade decisions, merely as additional aids to refer to. I like to see how price behaves on or around levels which harbour these % lines, especially if they rest at Big Figures or secondary round numbers (50's). The "full set" are primarily plotted from the Larger Frames: Weekly/Daily & those levels transferred down to the 240/60m templates which form the basis of my entries, profit paring, compounding & exits. Some folks like them, others dismiss them as mere coincidences - and I guess if you draw enough lines from the various high-low pressure points at the swing levels, you're bound to get some which "fit" Which is why I prefer to plot the complete set from extreme levels via the larger timeframe references. Over the years, they've consistantly hit on enough zones of activity for me to at least consider these area's as valid markers on the technical landscape. I'll generally only eyeball the 78.6 number on the smaller swing zones as it pressures that particular level, but the others sit on my focus frames (60/240m) from the larger levels to offer a secondary confirmer. If price decides to go on a run, more often than not they'll stall or react to one or more of the big Fib lines, as is the case with this current Franc trade. Coincidence?? maybe - but I'm not too bothered either way. I'm not concerned with delving into the why's & wherefor's or wasting my energies on digging deep into the magic of the ratio's....they react often enough for me to observe them. Our folks & their colleagues have used them for years & they're still trading...that'll do for me!
  7. Ditto, Kiwi's comments. Especially the points made in the 4th paragraph of that post. The entry/exit points Gav speaks of are merely the map & signposts of price. Sometimes those signs get a little blurred & alter course along the way. But I'd sure rather have a reference point to check my direction & rest stops than no map at all.
  8. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    Ohhhh, I think your understanding & appreciation of price action is a few notches higher than a mere beginner!! Price action is price action is price action...no matter the candidate/instrument class. Like I said prev: Instrument familiarization is obviously key in determining progression, but if a trader has the raw ingredients in his bag, it's merely a case of concocting a new menu with the basic materials I agree, the higher timeframes certainly offer a clearer view of the landscape. The lower frames, when used in tandem, are helpful in offering maybe a more precise trigger execution. 15m is a happy medium for sure, although I do on occasion drill down to the 5 to take a peek every now & then. I guess everyone finds their own comfort zones according to the current layout etc. There's no right or wrong - just whatever works for you! Nice trade to end the week with though huh? Good stuff!!
  9. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    That's a cool entry torero The 15m higher low & accompanying bar prints at the half prime sure speak the same language around your entry too, with good r/r. I got today's S1 down below most of the y'days activity, further confirming the upside continuation potential thru the Tokyo action.
  10. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    It's not difficult to see why the Buck is getting slapped of late, given the heavy tone of the $ Index. The trading nations of the Eurozone & Japan account for approx 65% of the weighting in this basket of FX activity, with Sterling adding around 12%...& the directional bias (particularly as it encounters key s&r levels) of the Index can add credance to your analysis when looking to weigh up continuation/reversal possibilities at key levels. It's hotting up at a couple of these lower levels & the closing ticks will certainly be on the radar of the big swing players - especially as the Euro & Cable are nudging their current (prev) resistance barriers. Yen is also on the trot, attacking the early Sept resistance zones around 115.80-116. 115.50 is the 38% zone of the early summer move from 109 to 120, & should that level give way, it opens up the Aug 4 lows @ 114.0 These levels offer some pretty decent opportunities into years end if the Index pops thru & backs further away from these near term supports.
  11. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    The Buck wiggled lower today to our aforementioned focus levels on the bearish technical breakdown off the 4hr frame. We've pared out a good lick of the compound stakes & most of the remnants of the original positions down here, with last remaining positions sitting at the level marked on the graph. I'm happy that level now offers us fair value on any renewed $ strength off this 1.2200 Big Figure. It's travelled 3c since our entry last Friday & that's good enough for me. The hourly is printing a whole heap of neutral/reversal bars & if the resulting action can haul itself above today's red bar, then it's welcome to our stops! I'll assess the follow thru potential tomorrow to guage the next level bias, but I wouldn't be surprised to witness a little kickback on the buck at these levels. We'll see.
  12. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    Howdy Cary You got your spies out buddy? LOL. I can't recall now who it was, but one of the research houses compiled a similar study back in late 2004, attempting much the same kinda stats. I don't think they drew any conclusive results on it though. Personally, I don't think it's very worthwhile spinning back much beyond 2000 to guage this type of behaviour. The make-up of the markets have changed enormously since then, due to a number of reasons (main one being the much hyped attraction over recent times within the retail community). But I guess 2000 thru 2003 were the better end of year performance sprints for the Cable of late. They were pretty decent trading periods as I recall. The 90's weren't anything too special, and as you say - there doesn't appear any concrete reasonings for it. Obviously, a whole heap of book balancing takes place around end of 4th Quarter & 1st Quarter tends to inject a fair pace of volatility for obvious reasons, so I guess it's merely a case of 'common sense' if the Cable is kicking in a 'trending phase'? which is certainly was in 2002/03. All's I'm bothered about is that volatility exists. I'm not too choosy what direction it takes I'll leave all the debating to those who have the time to study it December is the month to crank up the credit card a/c - the more $$'s which hit the a/c, the more Jimmy Choo's I can snaffle LOL.
  13. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    To be honest, you'll unearth more traditional & better behaved ranging candidates on the crosses than you will via the majors. If you scroll back thru your favored timeframes on a few of the popular crosses, you'll see what I mean. The 2 examples below offer a reasonable selection of the types of behaviour you'll witness. A case of horses for courses.
  14. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    Contrary to popular belief, currencies spend a good part of their life in ranging environments. I guess it depends on how you determine (& trade) your ranges? Sure, the lower timeframes regularly throw up very tradeable ranges, but a quick mosey out into the larger frame references will clearly highlight the primary range(s) where applicable. One persons trend is another one's range I guess you're maybe referring to tighter range boundaries on the Index Futures? I can't really compare the 2 with any degree of accuracy, because I don't trade them. But ranges not only appear on these instruments with increasing regularity, they're also very tradeable!
  15. Anna-Maria

    Cable Musings

    I think so too. It's very easy on hindsight to say this or that...but you executed your plan according to your rules & therefore the (positive) end result ought to be considered another tick in the "stuck to my rules" box Like you say, this environment is new to you. Plenty time to absorb all the differing variables as you become more familiar with your surroundings. It happens that price moved another fair lick up the ladder after you realized your profits....so what! You got your $$'s & you're content. You didn't lose money, & as we all know- no-one ever went broke booking a profit.
  16. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    Thank you for your kind comments, they’re much appreciated! I think by now, you will have noticed the common denominator in the vast majority of these trades? You’ll certainly have observed that most of my entries revolve around breakouts in one form or another. This isn’t the only set-up we execute by any means – but it does form the basis of my/our activity on these instruments. However, like any set-up, to offer a decent potential return v/s stake-risk deployed, it has to include rigid parameters. And in the instance of triggering a trade via a pullback opportunity, there has to be a confirmation of “intent†That intent reveals itself to me by means of a ‘test or pullback’. If price fails to retrace or re-test a breakout level, then it goes without my/our money. Simple as that. No head scratching, stressing out about losing out on a move, worrying bout whether it’s faking or teasing etc etc…..if it breaks, it pulls back offering an opportunity to climb on – or it doesn’t receive our funds. Experience tells us there are plenty of (other) opp’s on other instruments or candidates which adhere to our strict rules, rather than risk our entry money on half assed trades. These (currency) markets are fickle enough at the best of times, without us playing tag with their silly games. I don’t mind which timeframe I witness the pullback from. 5m thru 60m are the most sensible frames obviously, but the Daily/240m template frames will offer the clues….it’s then a case of drilling down to focus on the level which stirs our interest to trigger the entry/compound etc. Nothing complicated - no complex indicator signals to observe, no if’s or but’s….just pure, plain price activity signals. It either breaks the line & fakes out the weak hands before continuing on (which is where we climb on) or it breaks, pulls back & ranges. We then have a choice: either revert to a range trading strat or stand aside. Sooner or later, due to the massive volume participation which FX attracts, price will break out & trend. Ok, the trend might only shunt for a couple cents or so, other times it will shift pretty quickly for a 4-5c run…..but that’s where the trade management will determine how much of a move we book. There are plenty of opportunities across the majors every week to keep you busy, as long as you possess a strong, basic & consistant method/plan of taking advantage of these moves. That’s the real key!! Plan the trades & trade the plans!
  17. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    Update on this Franc trade: I've trailed our stops down at lunchtime (London) to sit at the 1.2360 zone after this next leg shunt down, locking in a bit more profit. Price never traded thru the stop line at all this week, & never really looked like shaking out the shorts from last Friday. Next line (Daily) s&r zones are now in focus, which we'll attempt to trade in line with appropriate management. It's often a "trade-off" as to whether the stops require slight upward/downward adjustment once a move gets under way, but compounding (& paring out) back in allows a potential move to soak up any extra fee's, whilst capitalizing on an aggressive trend run. Anyhow, we'll see how much farther this run takes us!
  18. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    Yes, it's certainly borne true on a number of occasions torero. It sure pay's to observe prices & react accordingly if they either continue to 'trend' or set-up a reverse/pullback opportunity on or around a Big Figure. Reduced liquidity is sometimes a double-edged sword, certainly where currencies are concerned. Although NY will be sidelined, & the London flows will also be light, these conditions can occasionally work to the advantage of traders. Like anything else, if opportunity exists according to your trade template/plans, then as long as appropriate risks are considered & strictly adhered to, it's 'good to go'
  19. Anna-Maria

    Cable Musings

    Let me first say, I didn't trade this example this morning, as I'm still live on the current Franc trade, & not too bothered bout initiating any fresh entries this week. But, the example is a typical play which we adhere to when data is printing. No-one can accurately predict the initial move as news prints. There are simply too many variables to take into account as the data hits the tape. But once all the knee-jerk to-ing & fro-ing has subsided, price will often tip the nod as to whether it wishes to continue in the prevailing trend, or merely cut & chop around a near term s&r level. The former option was it's intent this morning, therefore waiting patiently whilst it gets shoved around would maybe have offered a more realistic entry post-news?
  20. Anna-Maria

    Cable Musings

    Yeah, but the price action around the London open was rather tricky this morning though. It was trending during Tokyo, & soon as it busted yesterday's high (9006) in early Tokyo trade, it merely chugged on up. Unless you picked it off at c9030 as it consolidated the Asian lunchtime lag, there wasn't really a low(er) risk entry until the Bank minutes hit the tape. I feel the safest option when awaiting major news announcements, is to allow price to show it's intent? Similar to the normal range breakout set-ups. Allow price to kick around & find it's feet first, then either get in on the flow continuation or remain sidelined if it breaches a lower s&r level & doesn't offer a sensible entry... There will always be more realistic/lower risk entries to be found at another opportunity.
  21. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    Our brother usually keeps tabs on the intra-session/week/month volatility numbers, but to be honest most of the info can be derived by careful (daily) record keeping. However, again it highlights the % balance between the majors & one of the methods we use to re-configer our intraday R1-2 & S1-2 levels. Usually, unless they step wildly out of synch, we'll keep them to the avg 35 & 50% guides on the Cable/Euro...but now & again, he'll update the range extreme percentages to give price a little more breathing space. The 2006 numbers have yet to be calc'd on the weekly range extremes etc, but we don't expect them them to be much out of line on the 2005 numbers. The intraday pip range figures further confirms the increased pace in which Cable travels over & above it's fellow major pairs.
  22. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    They generally move in tandem to one another, as the attached correlation graph highlights. Occasionally, if one is experiencing some flak at a keen technical level or maybe awaiting an item of (specific) Fundamental importance, it will step out of line. But in the main, they're pretty much bosom buddies as far as directional bias is concerned. Again, from an intraday perspective, Cable is the 'sprinter' as far as range extension goes, with Euro playing catch-up....but then, that's no surprise given it's volatility attraction.
  23. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    Wouldn't disagree with that comment torero. Not that I trade any other instruments apart from currencies, but patience sure ranks high on the pre-requisites when trading these things! That + finding a couple key (repetative) behavioural assistors Same old, same old huh?
  24. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    Yeah, it's maintaining a steady line around the Asian high zone, so this pullback from the mornings highs could well establish some decent support/attraction into the NY Open. Certainly encouraging to witness the higher low off the London Open! All the best with it
  25. Anna-Maria

    Week 48

    I've let the Cable shunt up thru the consolidation break pass by this morning. It spiked a little too fast for me thru the Tokyo range after the minor UK data, & is bobbing to & fro underneath this tricky S2 resistance line. I prefer to focus & manage the Franc trade from Friday, which has mirrored Cables move thru the consolidation barrier to test the 1.24 Big Figure. I've pared out a little more profit here as it nudges the 78.6% reverse zone marked at this current s&r level. Remaining stops can now be re-adjusted down to sit above Friday's lower range barrier @ 2460 to check any return move back into the range.
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