Anna-Maria

Don't forget or neglect the crosses guy's. Just because the Dollar denominated majors are mired in clack & see-saw range boundaries, doesn't mean there aren't opportunities out there to climb into swing moves! Spend a few minutes to scan the cross instruments via the larger timeframes to spot potential opp's setting up off key Big Figures or Fib touches? GBP is still a strong candidate due to the fundamental bias towards the interest rate/inflation combo. Same set-ups/signals can be initiated on any instrument as price cuts out a directional play. 4hr frame of the GBP/CHF setting up off a multi Fib play on the GBP Bull move. 60m snap of same level, highlighting the 'trend continuation' signals & pullback/stall zones.

I agree. The volumes are decreasing as the week unfolds, & will continue to dissipate after Friday. We're simply focusing on our range barriers to trigger the odd intraday trade(s) where appropriate. But to be honest, unless something screams out "hit it" we're not too concerned with getting involved from hereon in. It's been a decent year, no point in trading for trading's sake.

Mo matter what anyone say's, confidence is a traders main weapon! There's no shame in adopting a defensive stance to your trading until your awareness & experience of your instrument improves, yeah? I'd much rather bank $500 from a defensive standpoint than lose $1,000 via an aggressive & over confident viewpoint. There's a time & place for aggression. That methodology can be engaged when you're fully versed in spotting a repetative & consistant pattern or set-up occuring at one of your favorite levels etc. Then you can hit it hard & ride it accordingly. Until then, snipe your profits & bank the bucks. As the experience grows, so too will the confidence factor. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!!

Nice trading on this leg! Do what you feel comfortable with regards re-positioning stops & risk etc. These variables within the trading plan are unique & personal to each player & should be based around not only your trade objectives, but geared proportionally to sit within the capital-risk parameters of your trading account. We'd all love to keep stops/profits flexible, but unfortunately account capital & sensible 'trade-off' between hard earned profit & leaving $$'s on the table need to be balanced. Bear in mind Cary, December is book balancing month. Volumes will also be affected as differing players begin winding down? Some of these end of year moves can get awful extended, resulting in quite volatile snapbacks.

That's certainly how we prefer to use those levels when instigating or managing the swing trades Cary. We've found they offer sufficient risk-reward to allow price to test the genuine flows. If we're attempting to take a price within a rangebound environment, then those % levels merely afford us an entry/exit guide to work from in harmony with the price bar prints.

Your graph reads ok from my end Cary, & that's a very good entry indeed! I drew the short straw y'day, engaging the short off the R1 instead, so only small change for me You beat Buk to the plate though on that long of yours He executed it thru the 1.95 (9517) on confirmation of the 2nd doji from the Fib/S1 bounce. If it can hold on any re-test of c9540 (today's S1 zone) it should gather sufficient steam to have a crack at last weeks highs around 9817. I guess we'll soon see how much stomach the Sterling Bulls have for a fight at todays important R1-2 zone (9610-25). Good luck to you & torero with your trades

Yeah, decent trades taking an 'either or' stance today huh? Is it a progressive lower high set-up off this 9850 top or a higher low shunt off the 38% Fib of the larger swing though?! Decisions, decisions!!

Subdued start to the trading week after the whippy post-payrolls activity on Friday. These are the occasions where our S&R % barriers usually play ball. And price has bounced nicely off the R1 zone this morning with accompanying rejection of the 4hr mov avg line. No interest shown in the UK PPI data, & price has sniffed our support zones where it's now resting before deciding whether to re-engage the downside towards the next Fib (38%) line from the recent move up off 8830. One or two snippets of Data to hurdle this week on both sides of the pond, before the volumes begin to noticeably dry up due to book balancing/year end lethargy

No problem! I'm pretty sure once you become accustomed to the price bahaviour on your preferred pair(s), the appropriate strategies will begin to gel. Most of the hard graft revolves around familiarization.

Funny, but it's nearly always the same lesson as last years:- Always expect the unexpected!! And never, ever dishonor your stops!

A quiet week leads us into one of the months most volatile data prints. Cable has held it's footing quite comfortably during this profit paring phase, & continues to flirt with it's 1st pullback Fib off the larger swing run above this 1.96 big fugure. The 2 near term support zones (on the 4hr chart below) are clear initial targets for the ($) Bulls should the Payrolls offer an excuse to run prices up on the buck. No real danger as yet for $ shorts, as prices have at least another 2.5 cents to shift (back to the 50% zone) in order to honor a satisfactory retrace/pullback point on the swing chart. Volumes, as expected, are on the light side leading into 8.30 EST. Some decent guages now exist both North & South of this level into the day's close - should be an interesting NY session.

That's a very important point James & the key to how (fast) a trader will develop, if at all. In fact I'd go as far as to say that unless the trader-mentor relationship is in synch, the progress will be sluggish at best, virtually redundant at worst. A mentor worth their salt will/should undertake a rigorous pre-training analysis before agreeing to an association. And one of the most important aspects of that informal assessment will revolve around the psychological make-up of the attendee. That's where the trainee will 'fly or die'

I guess these discussions are via the chat facility on here James? I'm out of the office from 8.30 till approx 11.45am EST tomorrow. But if it's still in situ I'll pop my head in?

Yeah, they're treading cautiously ahead of Friday by the looks. The UK printed a softer than anticipated Industrial Production number earlier this morning & there's obviously pockets of profit taking unfolding this week too. As you say, it's not particularly convincing nor is it going to worry the Bears too much either at these levels. It's shyed away from this 1st (23.6%) Fib above the 1.96 round number pretty smartly, which undoubtedly equates to continuing range trading in front of the Payrolls. It's playing a game of bluff with the nervy traders trailing tight stops at the mo... 'shake, shake, shake'

Cheers Cary! It's just one option. This type of activity works best when prices are trucking along aggressively in a trend. It's certainly not financially productive to bolt it on when prices are contained inside >150 pip or so ranges. Otherwise it's likely to result in a cancelling out scenario. Not to mention ramping up comms/costs etc. It really comes into it's own when you've scaled out of your 1st profit leg & maybe re-adjusted stops to protect the initial entry? It then saves diluting the profit of the original entry by scaling out. Sure, scaling/compounding is still a sensible option, as we never really know how far a move is gonna run. But when prices ramp up/down aggressively & you trail it to sensible swing zones, jobbing can satisfy the "greed/fear" concerns. All it really does is buy the trader time. Sufficient time in which to assess the price action moving away from a potential "turn" against the trend. Eventually of course a decision needs to made. But rather than instigate a knee-jerk reaction (only for price to fake out the weak hands before re-engaging the original directional move), it affords a little more observation time!!

Not sure whether anyone here observes or uses moving averages in their trading? Most of the mainstream trade sites out there appear to be infested with mov avg crossovers on various timeframes, with no apparent understanding or appreciation of how to filter/maximize their usage. Continual "blind triggering" of any price aid is a sure fire route to the poor house (especially mov averages), & like any other form of price aid activity, a good understanding of it's weakness/strength capabilities is essential. I mentioned y'day one of our colleagues has been plotting the 14EMA on the 240m frame (a favored math reading on this swing frame) during this aggressive shunt up on the Cable. He had 2 options as price began threatening this consolidation zone. 1) He could have extracted some more profit from the swing position ahead of Friday's NFP data & focus on his trailing stops into weeks end...or 2) Run a 'jobbing' trade (a counter short) on an intraday basis to soak up any potential move back to his 1st line trailing stops before considering legging out on the swinger. Thus balancing out the p/l to ensure this temp top up at 9850 wasn't a critical top? He elected to execute the latter. With NFP so close, he doesn't want to compromize the profits on this leg should the Payrolls come in negative for the buck. If the data prints $ negative, we should get another fierce leg down on the buck & punch prices thru this consolidation top. If prices roll over here, he can calmly close out further swing positions and/or close out fully & reverse tack. The 240m chart highlights the break of the 14EMA line off the 12.00 London bar. The preceding neutral bar prints were telling him price was struggling up here & a potential (temporary?) 'topping out' was unfolding. By drilling down to the 15m frame, he can guage the pullback strength off the 4hr low bar print & assess the potential of either partially encashing/running a short-term contra position. This now offers him total control on the primary swing position. It's not forcing him into a panic scenario wondering whether this consolidation top is a genuine "rollover" or simply a profit taking/temp exhaustive phase in the overall Cable Bull run. If prices move back to his intraday entry, he can fold at the b/e & remain positioned 'long' the move on the remainder of his trades. If it continues down thru 1.97+ he can ride it & adjust his lower trailing stops to capture a "double profit" scenario. The point being: whichever indicator/price aid mechanism you choose to employ, don't trade it blindly...look for the pullback or test of a price bust area to ensure you're not being lulled into a trap! Hope it helps sparks an idea or two as to how folks might incorporate indicators/price aids into their arsenal?

Hey guys! Yeah, it's a bit choppy this week terero. We haven't initiated any fresh (intraday) positions thus far, preferring to wait till we see how this consolidation phase plays out on Cable & the Franc. The 4hr triangle is still cutting out (Cable), which looks like it could well break farther North. But again, we'd prefer to wait for the apex to shake out. This could well play out into late week now with Friday's NFP the likely catalyst to continued momentum should it print to the $ negative. Reaver: I don't really plot Fibs on anything lower than a 240m frame. Obviously folks can refer to whichever timeframe they wish, but personally I've never found the smaller timeframe % levels to be particularly accurate or relevant. I'm more interested in whether a Big Fib line confluences a hard (price based) s&r zone or a Round Number (00-50) than I am the actual Fib level. If I get one or more price based confluences, then that zone is of definite interest. One of our colleagues is closely observing the 14EMA on the 240m Cable chart. If you plot it, you'll see what I mean. It's managed to hold it's close against that trend marker since it broke up thru 8850. Any prolonged close below it, especially should the NFP's offer the buck a temp kicker, will be a decent buffer as to the potential strength of Cable in the short term Mov Averages, in a trending phase, are certainly as good as any other price aid for offering a heads up. As long as they're observed via the longer timeframes & utilized correctly. Anyhow, hope the comments help!

I take the 35 & 50% levels from the NY close @ 5.00pm EST. The only times we'll adjust those % guides are: if/when prices begin to extend their "normal" range parameters. But for most of this year, normal (inside) range activity has contained prices sufficiently enough for us to look for rebounds away from those 35-50% barriers. On another note, we've yet to experience any meaningful retracement activity on this current leg up. Worth keeping your Fib guides plotted on the swings to assist any aggressive reversal behaviour as & when prices get spooked at these lofty heights. It won't take much for emotive reaction to accellerate once folks begin to get a little freaked with the buck stretched to it's limits. Often, all it takes is a small displeasure in the "expected" data to unravel prices. Once that occurs, human emotion takes over & all hell breaks loose. I usually keep the 240m chart highlighted with the near term (price) s&r levels + appropriate Fibs plotted to help guide potential stall area's...that way, I can then drill down to smaller timeframes & look for relevant lower top/higher bottom activity for triggers.

Little in the way of data today to drive prices, the only noteworthy item being Mike Moskow of the Chicago Fed, jawboning on CNBC @ 9.00am EST. I guess much of the early week activity will revolve around technical jostling. Long as 9650 remains protected, all should be well for the $ Bears. 9550 is now secondary support at these levels with decent demand lurking back there from swing stops.

No, not in the least! It's not my thread, anyone's more than welcome to kick it off!! I didn't see the 'long' this morning torero. Looked like a slight downside bias to me leading into London? Didn't take the short either, as we're not convinced this $ decline is done yet. I have interim support @ 1.97 on the hourly, & given the pace in which price has travelled past week or so, a little "range trading" wouldn't be out of the question ahead of this weeks NFP print? Sure, the upside still carries the weight on this instrument - and I wouldn't expect too much heavy selling ahead of Friday, merely range containment and/or mild profit paring.

It works pretty much that way whilst prices are in trend mode sure. Bear in mind, the volumes are very low on the European pairs during Tokyo. Most of the time price is contained within reasonably tight ranges & doesn't get going until London opens it's doors. It can just as easily fake (printing a 2b type action) & get shunted aggressively in the opposite direction too. But generally, your observation regarding the Tokyo shifts pattern carries weight in these types of activity we're currently witnessing. Not quite so sedate or well behaved in range mode, but that's another story

That last line on my prev post was meant to say: 'Another very good trade, nice one' You sure snagged it at the premium lower risk entry as it moved away off the Asian open! - offered good stop/exit protection placement as well. Yeah, until it begins to display topping out/exhaustive behaviour (clear lower tops on at least the hourly frame), then it still remains a buy play in my book too. We'll get a clearer view of events after today's/tomorrows data for sure. But another leg up thru the weekly resistance zone & this could continue to trek!

No, I haven't ever used a physical (software) trailing stop facility, if that's what you're asking? Fortunately, if I've triggered an entry & get sidetracked with another pair or task, there's always someone else to assist in managing the position - be it a swinger or an intraday trade. But they're a pretty cool option if you're otherwise indisposed. Anything which helps protect your hard earned research-entry work can't be a bad thing huh? Account preservation is the No 1 priority in trading. If a trailing stop is available to you & offers peace of mind, then it makes sense to incorporate it into your arsenal. Another very good there, nice one!!

The 5min frame snapshot of the 15m trigger at this potential entry zone. For those who prefer to keep their risk tight and/or jump on the momentum with decent exit 'trade-off' to check the flow, have the opp of catching these types of triggers. The "early blind b/o punters" who jumped on as Frankfurt opened (thru 9530) would have had to sit thru a painful 40pip pullback to c9520 if they hadn't already encashed - thus maybe shaking them out of their positions? Sure, like I've mentioned before, occasionally price doesn't 'pull-back'...it merely continues to chug along - fair enough. But rather than simply wildly triggering as price busts thru a prev area of activity, it's often preferrable to wait for price to show it's true intent?! At least if it does continue in your direction after the pull-back, you've done your utmost to ensure you're respecting your risk & technical parameters? If it unseats you at that point, then fair play.

Price has shifted over a cent during the Tokyo session, but more importantly, has remained ($) bearish above yesterday's activity. For those who enjoy their shut eye, the lower risk opp was farther back as it ramped back thru the 1.95 round number - but another possible leg in occured off the Asian top pre-London. Sure, it's pushing the limits, given the run already printed since last nigh's NY close, but nonetheless it's a typical signal with a sensible get-out option if this new high fails to ignite any follow thru. It's sometimes difficult to stay loyal to a consistant set of trigger parameters, particularly when the trigger/set up occurs at extreme price activity - but as long as caution is observed regards a clear, defined exit in case of negative expectancy, the triggers/set ups can still be actioned. Just because price has & is threatening new highs/lows doesn't equate that it's necessarily the better option to automatically look for reversal behaviour! I much prefer to allow price to tell me categorically that it's time to fold & stay sidelined.