Anna-Maria

You never heard of Prime Brokers???? Are you seriously trying to imply that professional FX players route thru retail??? I'd go get yourself a little education & try utilizing more than one cell inside that brain of yours mister before making a complete ass of yourself in public.

:o :rofl: :haha: Oh deary me, please someone help me up off the floor, my stomach is about fit to bust... I can't wait till Andre wanders onto this post I really can't. You best get your best flak jacket dusted off mister. :o :o on 2nd thoughts...Mods? why don't you simply delete this jokers comments - it might save you an awful lot of hassle down the line!

It’s the Dollar Index Aaron. A measure of $U.S performance v/s a basket of core constituents of which Euro accounts for approx 55%. Good to hear you’re making formidable progress out there, great stuff! .

If you’re talking liquidity, spreads/costs & shipping thru retail, then the $INDEX main constituents will generally keep you safe: EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD (in that order) Popular pairs out there would also fall under: USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD EURGBP You then got the cross instrument combination pairs which make up the Euro….British Pound….Jap Yen….Swissy etc Ie: GBPJPY GBPCHF EURJPY EURCHF etc etc……… Again, depending who you use & their spread/size/cost deals, will impact on your aims & trade strategy intent. If you’re in doubt regards costs, liquidity, key time zone exposure, sizings etc on your chosen instrument(s), just talk to your brokers & tell them what you’re looking to do. If it’s a half decent shop they’ll have switched on reps available to talk you thru your objectives

Keatings comments (re; banana republic) over the wires y’day didn’t help the Oz gain a footing up there at all. Asian demand jitters weighing on $AUD too. That big level (.7250-.7320) is certainly a ‘sellers’ hitting zone with the risk on-risk off switch working overtime. Similar theme across the board at respective zones too really. (larger) participants pulling the plug & reducing/cashing out positional size earlier than normal will likely increase volatility into year end as liquidity conditions thin out all the way thru the ranks. It’s becoming soggy & sludgy out there. Early Xmas jollies on the cards folks!! Yaaaay. Hey Andre, re: your "wild assed women" jibe Read & weep my i.q challenged friend & colleague!! http://www.phoenixvillenews.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=20163129&BRD=1673&PAG=461&dept_id=635495&rfi=6

Aaron, He won’t be active on here during normal business hours. He has school to attend & home study work to undertake before his Mom will allow him to strut his stuff. If he’s completed his workload then he can post before heading off in the a.m & again for an hour or so when he’s wrapped his study modules for the day. If you pull up a 60m & 15m combination chart & plot the vibrations off that 6320 floor he put a marker thru what do you see? The next level is/was .7000-20 as you rightly observed, which coincides with yesterdays high zone. What occurred this morning around there? Notice any price action behavior that might have triggered an entry at the base of that p/b? Doesn't matter if it blows straight thru it or not does it? you're either going to have a very definite set-up/trigger to take it on at the pullback or the initial breakout, or the secondary pullback etc. If you think the action is headed on full throttle then you might choose to lob a feeder stake out to test the momentum/flows. If it pulls back & chops away again, you can add to the move. And you can continue to aggregate your position on any future pullback or test of demand. If it fades or washes out, nothing lost - just an opportunity. These markets (under current circumstances) are cooking on risk. You won't get the leisurely opportunities to avail yourself of breakout-pullback entries as often as you would in more orderly market conditions. You need to structure your plan according to the conditions & maybe tweak your money & risk management play to step in & take a swipe at these momentum plays

The times she mentioned are the engine room of the days activity for sure Aaron. If you’re primarily engaged in intra-day plays then that timeframe will be somewhat influential in your decision making. If you’re still utilizing vsa? then like she said, you’d be prudent to focus on the times where the participation/volume is in full flow. I'm not trying to hedge or parry your questions, but each person see's things very different from the next one. And most of the decisions, bias & focus usually revolve around the strategies & set-ups utilized. Andre rolls most his stuff over wherever possible. He rarely participates in intra-day visits to the markets, certainly not as an intentioned play. So his primary focus, strategies & influences will be different to someone adopting a more short-term view of the market. What you really need to do is suck it & see. It would be bad form for me or anyone else to influence or deflect you from researching a particular pair or specific time-zone. What suits your style won’t suit mine & vice versa. You'll soon get a handle on what works (suited to your style) & what doesn't once you attempt to get to work on a pair around differing conditions.

Please don't go wishing him out of hibernation Blowfish. We just got him weaned off raw meat & bedded down safely in his pen.

Yeah, all sorts of hoo haa playing out today huh? The buck getting spanked good & proper. Freddie & Fannie not helping the late week surge. They'll have been a few folks hiding under the desk the past couple days no doubt.

Krantz know you're running around bullying the nice guy's? He's done paying your fines on here for one month :o I'd sneak out the back door & bolt for the bar while his att'n is elsewhere if I were you!!

Duly noted.

She is indeed torero. Apparently there's another one (Tess) waiting in the wings too. Think I'll arrange a jawbone gig with Soultrader & plump for a hostile buy-out play :o

You'd hit it off well with our Poppa then. I'm certain that old poop goes out of his way to ratchet a contrarian angle every chance he gets That AUDCHF is a very neat technical play indeed. I guess you been running it from last week? Nice shift thru the gears @ .9800 via the pullback from early month. Be interesting to see who comes out to play up here @ 1.0100. Looks like you might get a better value bite at your EURAUD yet They're definitely trying to cut a base out down there. Certainly in no hurry to plumb the depths of sub 1.6200 today anyhow. Agree with little sis though, I'd prefer to hang my hat on a more substantial peg for a trip back up. Good luck & good trading (with either or)

They're all out the door & headed for the beer garden Aaron on this (rare) spell of hot & sunny & British weather!! I think you'll find those pre-fixes simply relate to the month of the specific contract; ie....BPM8 signifies the June contract on the Pound, B6U8 the forward Sept contract. Same on EU: E6M8, the June & E6U8 the Sept contract. We don't trade the Futures, so any in-depth info regards that side of the fence will have to come from other members who maybe trade them?!

Man, you sure must enjoy busting your balls on that waste of space pair Aaron?! It’s a car wreck. I guess for folks who enjoy getting down & dirty roughing it inside crowded spaces, then it’s a traders paradise. But it’s not for me. I'm not in the least bit interested in learning anything from a technical chart Aaron, only earning from it, & that pair isn't offering me wages at this time, therefore it's off the radar. I won’t even begin to get interested in it until it breaks & re-tests 9965 to the north….9600 to the south. If you can’t see a high opportunity trade on it anywhere soon, then flip thru the menu & locate a pair that does offer one. I guess you’re going to have to obtain feedback from someone whose currently trading it.

It’s fair to say we have absolutely no idea whether price will travel effortlessly to next level reaction or not Aaron. We can’t control that. What we can control however is what we’ll do if it doesn’t, what we’ll do if we get an opportunity to compound on the way & what we’re going to do if & when it gets there. Our priority is to obtain maximum value entries wherever possible, whilst managing our risk & exposure as efficiently as possible at all times. We locate our upside & downside vibration levels, & always have a trade management plan in place. What price does & how far it travels in our favor, is purely down to the strength of the participation. As Cowpip quite rightly points out, the flows on this pair are currently weighted to the downside. I earmarked .7750-780 as an area of interest for reaction/profit taking purely on the basis of previous price action behaviour. If you glance a little to the right of that zone around April 3&4, you’ll note that prices got shunted back up there 100 odd pips early last week as it vibrated against it? It found supply at .7935-50 (as highlighted prev on here) before continuing back down on it’s current trend run. Point is, these zones or levels are merely markers or guides. They’re not set in stone, neither are they automatic trade triggers. Sure, the chances of them reacting are usually high because they are being observed & traded by a varied selection of players with different agenda’s. Stops & orders will usually be active on & around these key levels to assist with price flows. But whatever you personally choose to do as prices butt off a specific level or zone will be wholly dependant upon your strategy & style of execution. Your key priority is to manage your trade as efficiently as you can in accordance with your trade plan. If your signals offer you a ‘long’ at .7760 or .7780 & it reaches 100 pips further up the ladder without any undue stress, then you’ll already know what your next move will be because it’s part of your plan….or at least it ought to be. On the flip side, if it starts flapping around & begins taking on water at this current lower high (.7820-40), you should also know what actions to take. It’s very dangerous (psychologically) to allow yourself the luxury of confidence or assumptions that because price has behaved impeccably before, it will repeat the process again. Never assume anything, & always have an each-way plan. Your research, planning & execution simply offer you options. If you cover your bases correctly from the get go, they’ll be no surprises if the trade registers a profit & scratch or a loss.

If you’re trading +hourlies Cary & you got yourself a core position then the intra-week money flow drivers can be better adjudged in a relatively calmer environment.. It can cause angst & more than a little panic if you’re attempting to digest & form a view of the chatter/data/priorities when trading from an intraday timeframe. Once you manage to get your core base you can utilize the data & the ebb & flow of the market currents caused by the drivers, to feed into your position. You’ll notice (if you haven’t already) that a pair will begin to acclimatize to it’s key levels as it meanders back & forth on the back of it’s main fundamental influences. When events quieten down & the data cupboard/fundy flows are light, it’ll revert to technical trade. These are often where your previous levels of supply-demand & the stop activity buffeting them, come into play. The GBPCHF was offered up as an example this week, same scenario played out on the other pair mentioned earlier in the week, EURGBP. The re-visit to .7935-.7950 yesterday epitomized this behaviour too. Price shifted down (long Sterling) on continuing disappointing Eurozone chatter. Sterling was balancing out & traders had priced in the fwd rate calibration & were focusing on dire Eurozone output. Chatter quietened down & neutralized Monday & Tuesday whilst EU demand (stop) activity bounced it back up the ladder where it found overhead supply at the exact spot which kicked it down last Friday. Thing is, nothing changed this week regards the key fundamentals which weighed on EU v/s Sterling. Technical trade came to the fore, & once the realities re-surfaced & traders shook the sleep from their eyes, that level which housed a previous supply-demand imbalance, clicked into gear again. If you’re short & feeding in from further up the ladder, the intraday vibrations don’t register very highly on the radar. You use the ebb & flow to prepare to add-in again as prices meet overhead supply. You’re buying yourself time to confirm that your view remains correct…………for now! Pull up a 240 & you’ll see it’s clearly highlighting the lower highs & lows behaviour on this pair…just look at the bar prints on the way down compared to the activity on the way back up? We got an initial zone of potential demand lurking back at .7750-780 & we got previous lower high markers on your 60m to offer a guage to 1st level Euro strength on any reverse in the fundamental flavours from here. Job sorted. Thing is, you got time to assess & prepare for a 2 way eventuality. You got your upside-downside levels ticked & crossed. Your profit trail stops can be calmly calc’d & you can adjudge the potential reaction of any impending data still in the can ready to print. You got time to watch all the psychology going to work on the price, & time to gather all the relevant chatter regards stops/option barriers/fix activity etc relevant to your orders if you so wish. You can also take a piss without stressing whether a rogue print is going to smack you in the mouth & erase your angst ridden mornings profits :o

I can elaborate sure, but I wouldn’t say that the views we hold are by any means right, wrong or indifferent – they’re simply our view & the way in which we approach & work the market. We’re definitely not purely technical traders Aaron. We don’t fire up a chart station the minute we sit down first thing in the morning, in fact that’s probably the last thing we do, & one or two of the ‘older crew’ here don’t even bother to do that 4 days out of five. A great deal of our prep & groundwork revolves around personal contact, fundamental diet & order book flows. I’m interested in which pair has a build up (dominant bid or offer) bias at a particular level or zone & who is stepping up to take a level on. That’s where the “looking at other crosses” deal comes in. I want to establish wherever possible, whether Sterling is flavor of the day/week or if the buck is flexing it’s muscle across the board of late. How much weight does Euro have to throw around today & is the constant stream of data which ticks across the wires continuing to confirm one pairs dominance on the spread over the other. By running the ruler across the British Pound, Euro, Yen, Dollar etc v/s it’s main trading partners, you can quickly determine if that currency is dominant/passive across the board or displaying a pattern of unique behaviour to a specific cross or pair. It’s then a case of weeding out the chaff & focusing on the strongest v/s weakest pairing to see if an opportunity exists to avail yourself of a profit window. You have to appreciate that each country will be experiencing it’s own particular economic strengths & weaknesses throughout the trading week, month, year. Different problems & challenges will affect the balance & flows of that country’s currency & it’s weighting on the world stage. And we all know how twitchy & nervous traders are when faced with uncertainty. It’s by no means an exact science, nor does it follow a neat structure. Which is why, to stay ahead of the curve in this game you require a flexible attitude & an equally flexible approach.

Hello Aaron, Yes I did 9600-650 established itself as the solid floor there from early March. Not really too difficult to assume that once they blanketed the growing (albeit short-term) shift in fundamental bias, prices would rise as soon as the last sellers conducted their business & the mid-term liquidation was put to bed. Drilling down even further into the 60m would have gotten you well placed to avail yourself of those 2 daily purchasing bars on the 15th & 16th. Important to make clear though that the trades on both are counter-trend. They're not core positions, therefore require slightly different management. They're both now buffeting off the expected reaction levels, on the back of recent dismal UK data.

Was asked today what the reasonings were for taking recent Pound longs v/s Euro & Swiss when the clear trend on both pairs is to the Pound bear side. Simply, technical mirrors of a short-term shift in fundamental bias. Nothing more complicated than that really. The near-term picture on these things can change & react aggressively from day to day. If you look at a daily & 4hr chart of both pairs you’ll see the obvious behaviour unfolding. No need to expand on that. Taking advantage of near term counter adjustments is valid as long as the environment justifies the execution. Technical set ups & flows will confirm the fundamental shifts if you give it time, & as long as the risk can be managed appropriately, then the trade can be tick boxed. There are very visible upside-downside markers on both crosses to assist management of these counter trade opportunities, & they in no way disrupt the core (pound) short stance on either pair. Regardless of who holds the aces in the long term trend pack, you’re still going to witness the price relationships at key levels which will enable you to make informed decisions. The choice is yours whether or not you wish to play ball, & will be dependant upon your preferred style & trade aims. I'll pick one (Pound/Swiss) to stick up here as an example. Nothing fancy, just marrying up the Fundamental chatter with the technical map as the bars print & mirror the behaviour.

Bravo! that’s the ticket mister, seek out the value (trendy) trades & step size them up & down the ladder whenever possible. Focus on the aspects of your game plan that you can actually control & affect outcomes from Mr Sledge. Don’t chase rainbows or waste another minute on clueless systems, indicators, faddy & complicated price aids or other such nonsense. ps: Arty will be sub contracting you out to this joint if you go compiling many more chapters of War & Peace :o I hope Mr Soultrader can pay the going rates?!?! :\

Essentially yes. Area’s where price action has previously reacted to demand or supply will usually house some sort of future vibration when re-visited. That reaction manifests itself by displaying information of market participants activity in the bar or candle. As we’re observing this activity via a 60min, 240min or Daily timeframe, then we’re paying attention to how it plays out as it butts up against our levels of interest. From a candle perspective; doji’s, spinning tops, hammers, engulfing candles, inside/outside candles etc, all offer clues as to the probable (current) psychology of the market at these tiered levels up & down the ladder. Match that up with the chatter, fundamentals, specific order flow flavors of the day etc & you begin to build up a picture of the state of mind that the market finds itself in. Most of the time this info (often conflicting as one camp absorbs & overwhelms the other) can take a while to shake itself out, which is another reason we prefer to leg in & out via the slightly longer timeframes. We miss all the tight turns & bustle at the edge of these range & trend barriers, but we're not interested in picking tops & bottoms or being first off the grid. We're happy enough with the chunk in the middle or the meat of a move.

Well, if it helps or assists in developing a couple more idea's to add to your pot then I guess it's worthwhile There's 3 charts missing from my last post which should have been included. I guess the server maintenance unseated them?! Anyhow, I'll try slinging them up again in here as I'm unable to edit that prev post. Just offers a taste of how we view the playing field & assess potential forward issues. All simple, common sense stuff really.

Arty would be the first to tell you that we’re certainly not educators Sledge. What we do wouldn’t fill a class or seminar for longer than 30 minutes :o There are folks in this industry wired tighter into that box than the likes of us. The basis of what we do isn’t very complicated to fathom at all, & definitely not rocket science. Sure, we might have access to information streams which the average retailer doesn’t, but that in no way guarantees we’ll stay ahead of the curve. It's nice to have, but not particularly essential to generating consistant profits. We specialize in a small chunk of a market & merely do the same thing over & over, based upon our collective knowledge & experience. Everyone here are singing from the same hymn sheet where price action is concerned however. It's a direct result & consequence of trader psychology Get a handle on that & you can understand better how these key levels are orchestrated by the folks who really push this FX gig up & down the ladder. We indentify levels & area’s on the map where we know certain groups of players are likely to become active. It’s not difficult to locate these levels, the footprints are big enough to spot. Once you find the levels & they hold up to inspection, you require a set of tools to get to work on them. They’re either reversal tools or continuation tools. Like he said in an earlier post; concentrate, focus & begin to observe carefully the behaviour of price action as it approaches, & backs away from these levels. That will tell you a whole lot about the psychology of the players who are working there. Once we’ve managed to average or job into a core position, we can then get to work & begin compounding it from a position of strength (value). But you absolutely got to possess a plan. You have to know where you’re looking to engage & why. You must have an objective (short or mid term, whatever your preference) & you definitely need to know where the next level of potential conflict (for you) is at, so you can prepare for an each-way option. As long as you know where price has come from & where it’s likely destination lies (both for you & against you), then you got options. All you got to decide then is whether the level you intend executing from fits your risk profile & offers sufficient value for your stake money. Pick up where Arty left off with a couple more charts, & you can easily see the kind of road map we follow & where we adjudge the likely reaction levels. No-one ever knows for sure how price is going to interact with a level when they pull the trigger, but there are 3 things we’re absolutely certain of when stepping up: 1) Where we’re going to bail if the trade begins to get washed out. 2) Where & why we’re going to aggressively add (compound) more fuel to the trade when it does start to rip. 3) When we’re going to peel off or fully encash based on our trusty old reversal or exhaustion signals. They’re the same reasons & set-ups we’ve always used & will continue to use because they’re based around the psychology of market participants. And that is what drives order flow every second of every day. ps: I see you're still observing that cool 78.6% assistor then torero good on ya! another trusty old friend out there in the theatre of war which is the markets

You sure cornered him at the right time today torero - he's got half a pub of some disgustingly colored liquid mishing his brain structure to pulp. Ewwww When you're done distributing your pearls left & right mister, you got a bar bill to top up. Move it! Have yourselves a fab weekend break fella's, hope your week paid a wage - catch y'all later.