aidaweb01

@gilpv - I created a trading journal a while back that I used to spread bet and share trade which I think would allow you to trade the futures contracts you refer to. It's a bigger file than the limit here. I posted a video many moons ago of me demo'ing the software (god knows why I was wearing a hat inside....) - Take a look and let me know - I can email it you to if it'll help. Cheers Dan

I've been using Chrome for a good while now. It has it's moments, but I like the speed with which it opens - simple really, but nothing more annoying than a web browser that takes more than 2 seconds to open!

When I started out trading I figured I needed targets. Initially I figured 5.9% per month would be a great target, because, when compounded, I would double my money year on year. I hit this target a couple of times and then I used to stop trading and do something else. The next month I wouldn't make the target and so I figured I needed to re-adjust the following months target in order to catch-up. When I realized that setting these sorts of defined targets didn't work for me, I found a weight was lifted from my shoulders. I'm still working on it, but without targets, my trading is now much more consistent and it feels a lot easier. Targets work for some, but for others it adds a pressure that they can do without.

I've just been into my IG account and it looks like I can go short. That aside, I totally agree with GJ, making a market when it suits should be outlawed! When Ladbrokes first started offering books they were well known to 'investigate and offer a price' on anything (within legal and ethical boundaries) Thats how they made their name. If IG pull the plug on loss making products they'll quickly lose ground to a companies that don't! P*ssies indeed!

The instruments I am aware of track either Rightmove or HBOS House Price Index. Its a synthetic product thats not exchange traded (some people have issues with this) but in my experience it accurately tracks the respective indexes. The issue is in the spread which can be quite large, but if you are hedging with a 6-12mth+ timeframe then it's workable. Not sure I understand your question about laying off the risk? I have friends who own very sizable property portfolios in London and I was surprised how little interest they had in the concept of locking in their current profits by hedging. One guy in particular says he's in it for the long long term and is going to ride the 'dip' and not complicate his business by introducing concepts he doesn't understand.

You could short the 'UK House Price' or 'London Property price' Index found on some spreadbetting sites.

I don't think you hijacked the thread at all I think what you have proven is that the topic of spread-betting may provoke healthy debate!

No doubt if you search the net for stories around spread-betting firms using inappropriate tactics for their own advantage you'll find many disgruntled punters sob stories about how the market 'spiked down right to my 200 point stop, took me out and then shot straight back up' Not sure it can be likened to bucket shops however....

Spread-bets are are not cleared on a recognised exchange but all Spread-betting companies are regulated by the FSA so there is a level of protection. Placing a spread-trade on the DOW is identical in many ways to trading the underlying futures contract. If I wanted to short the equivalent of 1 contract on the DOW, I'de place a sell order (market, limit or stop) at £2.50 / point. If I wanted to go long the equivalent of 10 contracts, I'de place a buy order at £25.00 / point. Spread-trading has a number benefits, not least no capital gains on profits but also a greater level of control over position sizing. Traders trading the DOW increment their size in $5 chunks - spread traders can increment in 1p (0.5 cent) chunks. All the basic functionality you'de expect from your trading platform is available from most spread-betting companies I know of. For example, Market, Stop, Limit, Market on Touch orders. You can also place OCO trades with contingent orders attached (for example - lets say you are playing the breakouts, you can place a Buy Stop with a stop and limit as contingent orders and at the same time place an OCO Sell Stop with a stop and limit. If the market takes you in long, your short order is cancelled and your stop and limit orders are immeadiately placed). One of the firms I used has just launched a product that allows you to deal directly on your graphs using drag and drop functionality. You can even attach orders to trendlines and things like fib's - I don't know if this is available from other brokers? Because the market is so competitive in the UK spread-trading companies are continually coming up with new and innovative products - for example Binary Bets where you simply bet on 'Wall Street to finish up for the day'. The way this bet works is simple. The make-up is 0 if the market finishes down and 100 if the market finishes UP. The spread for it finishing up is set by the traders of the spread betting company - for example right now the spread on it finishing up is 51.1-55.9. Assume I think its going to finish up, I 'go long' at 55.9 @ £5 per point. It finishes up so the market 'makesup' at 100. I therefore make (100-55.9)*5=£220.5. If it finishes down the makeup is 0, so I lose (51.1-0)*5=£255.5. This type of 'betting' is not to everyones cup of tea, but it certainly gets the brain working on how these types of products could be used as part of the overall strategy. Not entirely sure what you mean by a glorified bucket-shop for stocks, but its certainly possible to spread trade 100's probably 1000's of instruments through a single provider. For example on one of the platforms I use I can trade UK,US, European, Asian, Australian and African indices and stocks (like SSF's), all major commodities (energies, metals, softs), Tracker funds, bonds, options, house price indices and a whole lot more. I don't know why exactly it's outlawed in the US - would be interested if anyone had a view on that?

I'll see what I can get out of Tradestation

Don't know if you got your ES data, but I could dump some your way from Tradestation?

Interesting stuff atto - I've been interested in the GAP play for sometime and I think your approach to your analysis is great. Look forward to see how this develops. As you forward test your data (and consequently, the analysis you'll be able to do on that data) should be really valuable. Have you come across 'The Gap Guys' work (not sure if I'm allowed to post a url to his website). He has developed a system similar to the one I believe you are developing - he's able to analyse his data in loads of ways (which days are better than others, probability of filling certain gap sizes, probability of filling based on size of OHLC bars etc etc). This dude was part of the TradeTheMarkets membership - who also play the GAP, albeit with a slightly more discretionary approach. I think the GAP trade is possibly the most analysed of day trades and yet it still yields fantastic results primarily because its the little guys that create the gaps and the big guys that close it. As long as that dynamic remains, GAPS will always fill.

I watched the free video on theinsidercode. The smooth american tones of 'Mac' started by saying 'Hello Friend' - as a typical Englishman I'm turned off by this smooze straight away! I did however persevere with the video and to be fair I did like the logic around setting weekly and monthly goals and increasing your 'starting pot' as you hit your targets. Under no circumstances however would I have ever or will ever pay for smooze like this. No substitute for hard work eh!

I'm bearish the GBP. On the weekly its trading in a channel between 1.9945 and 1.9433 1.9777 is potential support - if that doesn't hold, then no more potential support til around 1.9558. Fundamentals may play a part in this. If the BOE raise rates (and they were close last time they met) then GBP may rise. They are meeting on 9/10th July

Another thing that would undoubtedly enrich the content at TL would be up todate journals. I know its incredibly hard to keep journals updated regularly (especially during those losing streaks!). I found a journal at forexfactory by a guy called Stevie, who pledged for 1 year to post his trades nightly without fail - He'd developed a strategy, the details of which are not important, but what struck me was his incredibly simple Stop and Profit placements and his amazing discipline. From what I can tell he went from an account of a couple of hundred dollars to managing over $100,000 in the space of 18 months. Truly inspirational and great PR for Forexfactory. How could TL encourage traders to be disciplined in their journals?