larsdelgars

If anyone is interested in reading the price/volume book from http://tradewithvolume.com/ please PM me and make an offer. I have finished the material and have the book for sale. Best Regards and God Bless Lars

i have the chart reading boot camp CD's for sale make an offer via PM and i will ship them along to you

not surprising considering tradeguider is a scam company.

oh no!!!! attack of the trading shrink that can't trade.... i feel like i'm having flashbacks of a steenbarger seminar... lmfao... who would have guessed... another edition of tradeguider.... steaming hot pile of pump and dump... now quick... i need to login under my other screen name so i can talk to myself on the boards... LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOO

yikes... kruegers website traderscode.com.... looks like a tradeguider infomercial... $700 for a support/resistance DVD set??? WTF..... that is crazy.... he looks like a young Karl Rove... and with price's like that he is definitely just as sleazy.... you can get everything he is offering for $100 dollars a year subscription to ino tv support resistance/wyckoff/candles @ ino tv sorry i will not allow newbies to be ripped off and become disgusted with trading because of it.

market rises on nice crescendo volume from test-like bar seen on 12th (15)(16) as price advances and volume increases, spread increases commensurate to the volume increase and strong closes... this is healthy and SOS. (17) outside gap up bar close near the low.... volume greater than previous bar however spread is tighter than previous bar.... this indicates capping and the close near the low confirms the selling as well as the next bar down.... this isn't "end of a rising market" (even though this is the end of a rising market) because this squat simply isn't as blatant as others and there is some data further to the left on a sample including more bars so this "end of a rising market" is not into "fresh new high ground." (19) strength coming in or shake out.... outside gap down bar close near the high with the next bar up.... this also looks like a test bar because of volume less than previous two. this bar is a NR7 (tighter spread than previous 6 bars) the narrow spread coupled with decreasing volume indicate strength even though the market has come off.. this is weakness hiding strength this is SOS. (23) inside gap down bar is pushed into the area of the "strength coming in" bar to test supply.. volume is less than previous two and close in the middle or high on a down bar that made a lower low.... this is a test and volume is telling us this will be a successful test next bar up confirms our test. (24) this bar looks like no demand but because of the strength seen on the previous test bar and three bars before on the shake out/strength coming in it isn't no demand and next bar up confirms. after a base /shake-out/test i always allow for a couple weak volume up bars as long as the close is strong because supply has been removed and buyers are reaching for the issue even if volume has not yet reappeared. this is a SOS next bar up after a test. also up until this point volume is increasing on up legs and decaying on reactions and therefore SOS. (26) volume is weak for a bar with this spread... it is a strong marubozo bar out of context however in this context it is hidden weakness. weakness is also apparent because the market is not approaching the old high with volume convincing of a breakout. this is strength hiding weakness SOW. this is the first up bar that indicates buyers are no longer interested in higher prices. previous widespread ups either had healthy demand or supply swamping demand... this bar has no participation... no buying pressure... if this bar had been about 1.5 - 2 times the spread of the previous bar i would've been OK with it on this volume. (29) supply rears its ugly head and this bar is within the spread of the previous top that revealed supply. outside gap up bar into area of previous supply with close in the middle or low ... this in it's own right displays weakness but the tight spread NR4 and massive volume indicate that a ton of supply was dumped onto the market here... the smart money is liquidating and positioning short.... (30) this bar tries to test out the supply but the sequential volume pattern tells us this test will fail (31) a close higher than the test gives us a successful test with respect to the closing prices... however weak volume and lower low as well as an outside gap down open on this bar indicates that supply seen to the left will not be broken and SOW within this context this outside bar is a SOW... no buying pressure.... no upside participation. also notice that supply has not reappeared at the highs.... distribution is done for the moment... markdown is potentially on the way.... (6) effort to rise with no result... market closes the gap on healthy participation however market falls off indicating this rally was possible short covering after previous distribution seen in background... either way... no interest in higher prices. (7)effort to fall... up until this point volume had been increasing on up legs and decreasing on down legs or in transition... now volume is increasing on down legs and as the 8th and 9th display decaying on reactions higher and SOW. (8) up bar close in middle or high volume less than previous two next bar down also NR4.. no demand and SOW. (9) upthrust... distribution is complete.... some buy stops have been run giving the short term insiders some bearish inventory and the market is primed to drop... SOW,... notice how few buy stops were found on the thrust higher.... momentum players are now positioning as scale down sellers.... overhead demand is confirmed out of the market. I am short Gold and long the United States Dollar for 2009.... not just because of the 20 bar Wyckoff/VSA analysis of the index fund but also because of proprietary open interest analysis of the futures market. Smart money is selling gold and buying dollars... In a deflationary or "disinflationary" (lol) environment this makes perfect logical sense. However I know some folks will complain and say "currency crisis" "stim package inflation"or some buzzword like that ... 2009 is without question the year of the US Dollar. This is a great opportunity to buy dollars on a pullback or sell gold on a rally or both. the potential gain greatly outweighs the stoploss. On the equities side the long dollar play could be partially captured through the use of Canadian companies that export primarily to the united states.... obviously sector and industry would have to be carefully considered. i personally am not buying equities at this point because i am still bearish... despite the bottoming pattern that is trying to form/breakout.... i am still looking for another downleg before reevaluating my long term position on equities. if i am wrong and the market breaks higher i would be totally content to enter on a re-entry pullback opportunity.

nick radge does something similar... a 2 standard dev of the 20 period moving average for the high volume... then a ten period moving average for the low volume.... he has two articles on volume analysis... sounds like VSA to me. The Hidden Strengths of Volume Analysis.pdf The Hidden Strength of Volume Analysis 2.pdf

um just checked it still says coming soon traderscode.com

a couple more showed up in my inbox today WYCKOFF LAWS AND TESTS. By. Henry (Hank) Pruden WYCKOFF'S BUYSELL TESTS APPLIED TO THE. MALAYSIAN STOCK MARKET DOW JONES INDEX Henry Pruden WYCKOFF LAWS AND TESTS. By. Henry (Hank) Pruden.pdf WYCKOFF'S BUYSELL TESTS APPLIED TO THE. MALAYSIAN STOCK MARKET DOW JONES INDEX Henry Pruden.pdf

did a quick search of the archives and located this... Wyckoff Tests - Nine Classic Tests for Accumulation (Pruden) Wyckoff Tests - Nine Classic Tests for Accumulation (Pruden).pdf

yawn... i'm turning in early tonight..... i don't think anyone can disagree that bear markets have rallies generally the seasonal factor that you speak of is an October event or setup and that time has passed... another "seasonal" even also occurred and was priced in and sold into... and that is a 10% rally for a democratic president... i captured this event and sold into the outcome as everyone made it clear they were heading for the nearest exit.... when i see threads like this where every trader is agreeing with one guru prediction... i run... i don't walk to the nearest exit..... furthermore i find it funny that a trading methodology is being used to make forecasts about future events as opposed to making trading decisions.... if memory serves who called a bottom in September??? i know i didn't because i was short.. look... the market is making lower highs and lower lows.... volume is sequentially increasing on declines and decreasing on rallies.... supply is being found and levels where it was diminishing... take a look at what happened in the previous bear market consolidation that ended in September with a break to the downside. so then the argument was a bear market bounce... well ... like my article stated about bear market bounces... either driven by short covering or value accumulation... as i stated earlier the open interest dismisses a short covering rally... value buyers are spooked by extremely opaque balance sheets and bogus level 3 assets coupled with the fact that insurance in the options market is a major loser thanks to all the volatility priced in. so who is the buyer??? the smart money? nope absolutely not... the data absolutely dismisses that... in fact the data suggests that the buyer nowadays is the small timer trying to grab the bottom... the floor traders/locals simply looking for a 5 - 10 handle bounce or the plunge protection team looking to blow American tax dollars on another hail mary attempt to base the market... i'm fairly sure the VSA book even states that pro's do not orchestrate waterfall declines/strait line declines because even they cannot handle the supply thrown onto the market.... so what side of the market are you on? personally i'm with the smart money and the smart money is short.

An entire village in Africa doesn't have enough fingers and toes to count the number of W bottom / Spring / Basing patterns that fail in a bear market. We need to consider the most likely scenario... dead cat bounce. http://www.davemanuel.com/2007/12/31/what-is-a-dead-cat-bounce/ some random link off google

well i'm finding it hard to argue with a fairly neutral position. lol. all i can say is that it is repeating a pattern seen in September of finding supply in an area where supply was diminishing. increasing volume on declines is not bullish.... supply was being tested out on the "secondary test" however price is now finding more supply on the "spring" so to me that is rather bearish. a bear market rally could be in the works but the open interest disagrees with that forecast. the rally would have to be short cover driven and the shorts appear to be holding pat.... indicating professional bearish sentiment. best regards

well DA BOYS musta shown up fa sho .... what a surprise... price sought out volume just below another monthly line level.... seems orders are couriered to and fro.... understanding tests thanks to VSA and this thread kept me out of the first entry and got me in at 820.50 a few minutes after noon (central time Chicago here). BUT WHAT AN AMATEUR... i sold out after 30 handles and missed the whole damn move. ARGH UM ARGH ARRRRGH... i'll get it right sometime... doing my analysis right now and trying to focus on tests..... hope everyone caught that move...

Building the proper grid. I like to zoom out and look at a two week or one month line chart. (see first attachment) Look for an area that has been tested from above and below. Most of my lines are areas that had been tested from above and below more than once or they were the top or bottom of a major consolidation. This lets you know these are areas that have large pockets of standing orders and can stop and start moves. This grid should create S/R lines that are approximately 30-40 handles apart (depending on average ranges)... Take a look at the second chart. My S/R lines from last week provided a perfect topping level in pre-market and a bottoming level at the end-of-day (this happens more often than not)... my middle level provided the weekend gap jump-over and during the session was temporary support and a good VSA shorting area on the kiss-back. These levels were re-drawn beginning of last week... In all fairness the lowest level was adjusted intra-day friday last week and was very close to but not from the 1 month line. If you like to use a 5 or 8 minute VSA chart to look for entries these are the perfect grid lines for you. The 30-40 handle range provides plenty of profit opportunity to offset a slightly larger risk. Simply use the lines like weekly pivots... as one is broken to the downside expect the next lower to be tested and vice-versa. Remember the proper levels have a high potential to create volume and since price is always seeking volume the proper levels provide excellent entry/exit areas to get in/out of trades and most importantly to define risk. Building the proper support/resistance is more than half the battle. With correct support/resistance you can be a basic S/R trader without VSA... add VSA to the mix and entries become more precise and risk is reduced. Using VSA also helps the trader to decide how the lines are going to be "negotiated." Now these areas are known and sometimes they are "gamed" (but much more often than not these areas hold) so using VSA really helps to understand these nuances. Last week one of my levels was broken and at first glance appeared to be legit... however the two legs up and over resistance showed major distribution based on VSA principles... also price "sat" on new support after mounting the line and didn't really do much other than display more re-distribution... since price had no "life" and hugged the line I simply waited for price to break down through and then kiss-back to the line on low volume and a VSA shorting entry point. Profit target was the next support line down and risk was very low compared to potential gain. Thanks for taking the time to read this.... God bless and good trading

i love VSA ... when i first found it i wasn't ready for it... i was skeptical... now its all about tracking sentiment and less about technicals....:missy:

why would you think any hidden buying would be contained in those bars? they closed very near the low..... some supportive volume did come in on the 3rd and 4th bars after the wide spread bar to establish a temporary floor... but that easily could have been a minor breather caused by short covering before a continuation of the decline. and besides what would warrant a long entry? you haven't established a bullish context in the background the thing with VSA that i see around the internet is this ... "VSA teaches that fading monster bars is a good idea" personally i think that is a really crappy way to look at this whole concept. i mean its easy to cherry pick examples where it works out... but picking tops and bottoms after monster bars is really poor business.... unless you are selling out longs or covering shorts. the only long entry i see is 10 bars after the wide spread bar.... and thats still high risk thats my take

the name of this thread is "candles in context" and yet it seems you don't want to talk about S/R as context. Since this is the case... why don't you let us know what you would like to use to establish context... for example... long shadows... solid wide range bars... etc... these are candles that can establish context.... however they really reflect the hidden S/R anyways so really its just another layer of abstraction... maybe it would be actually useful if we first create a list of candles that can be used as context... then move forward and interpret other candles within the context of these "context" candles.

what system are you learning so we can have a discussion.

sounds like a discussion i'd be interested in.

yea but what are those bars testing.... the high volume bars have already been tested by low volume bars that occurred before the bars you mention. the bars you mention look like maybe no supply. i don't think tests are simply the lowest priced and lowest volume bars on a chart when looking back in hindsight. from what i can gather from eiger it seems they appear rather swiftly after supply has potentially entered the market. they seem to "bounce" off the close of the potential supply bars if the tests are valid. does this seem like an accurate observation?

thanks for the niblet.... if anyone has a link to the Sebastian video material please help me out and post it. i can't find it with a search. if anyone can speak to hidden tests... high volume tests and also the inverse of tests... or link to material that explains it in detail... thanks also since it seems like the thread is rather slow lately i am wondering if the experts are now providing there services elsewhere for a fee ex. vsaclub or if they are still giving back to the community they once drew upon. thanks.

can someone speak to tests specifically..... i see these terms... hidden test... high volume test... failed test... confirmation of test.... i can't seem to find clear definitions of these tests in toms book. could someone speak to this as detailed as possible. why do tests occur? how are tests confirmed? i can't seem to find a resource on this. any help is greatly appreciated.

Thanks for the thread gang... Eiger the charts are really helpful. I hope that you continue to do them. I wanted to ask a question. I did a quick scan and found something with a wide spread and extreme volume. It is an S&P component... I know we don't do stocks around here... but we do analyze ES and this is a component of that. I am looking at EOD data so you can pull up yahoo if you want. Ryder ® had a wide spread down on massive volume closing off the lows 3 days ago. This was followed up by a down bar closing off the lows on less volume. Today the bar was an up bar on narrow spread closing up.. it is also an inside day bar. was this bar a successful test of supply sitting at yesterdays close... is this a no supply bar indicating Ryder is ready to bounce? Thanks.... the chart discussions are fantastic in this thread. I wish the other threads would do daily chart discussions/annotations for example the wyckoff thread. Best Regards lars