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Soultrader

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by Soultrader

  1. Soultrader
    Hi BillyG, As a starting intraday trader, scalping is the last skill you want to master as this is an advanced level of trading and will surely wipe out your account. Like brownsfan mentioned there is no holy grail in trading. Relying on a system or indicator is a good way to follow a program and never learn how to trade. In order to trade successfully you must treat your trading like a self-owned business. You will need to determine which market you are going to trade, which market will fit your personality, your style of trading, your amount of risk capital, risk per trade, etc... Think in terms of strategy, strategy, and strategy. Study price and volume. Remember you never need to stay in the markets constantly. Grabbing one intraday swing a day is enough to live off day trading. So practice capturing these intraday swings as if they are your bread and butter. In other words, start by being a intraday positition trader. Learning to trade takes time.... I think it takes as long as going to a 4 year university. Tuition? Depending on how reckless one is... it could be cheaper or alot more expensive. Good luck Billy and post any questions you may have. There are plenty of good people here.
  2. Soultrader
    Very interesting topic here. In Japan, these withdrawing bid/ask in tremendous size is illegal. Which is why the Dom information is more clear. Many scalper trade just off the dom making the bid/ask spread. This works well in the Nikkei where the tick size is approx $90 per contract a tick. I can not do this successfully. We also have off exchange transaction system in which block orders can be negotiated between a buyer and seller directly. These block orders do not show up on the Dom but will send a print at the open and EOD. Hence this block size is incorporated into volume at the EOD only. (pretty annoying in my opinion) They do this in order to prevent artificial price movement. Brownsfan mentioned how price gravitates towards the heavy bid/ask levels. I find this interesting as it is the exact opposite with the Level 2 screens in Japan both for futures and equities. Im assuming it is due to bid/ask games constantly being played in the US or just traders being very indecisive and emotional. When I traded the YM, I never really paid attention to the dom (only tape) so can not comment on this behavior for US futures.
  3. Soultrader
    Yes, there is nothing wrong with what Dr. Janice is doing here on the forum. Like Torero mentioned, it is getting out of hand in which any post seems like content and sincerity is being questioned. Please DO NOT post these comments directly as it ruins every thread. If there is a problem, pm the mod or myself and we will make the appropiate decision whether to keep the thread, edit, or delete it.
  4. Soultrader
    Yea they came out with strong earnings mainly from their investment banking. They also made good money betting against the credit crisis. So basically they just robbed Bear Stearns
  5. Soultrader
    Thank you very much Feb. Respect for others and posts is the main reason we have been able to maintain a quality board. It has been a truly great experience running this board and the atmosphere the members have created here. Thank you all.
  6. Soultrader
    Interesting you mention that. Volume has been low here on the Nikkei as well with choppy price action. Due to the lack of swings at the moment, its been all program buying/selling, arbitrage, etc... Even the trading day following the fed rates, volatility shrunk and volume was extremely low. The sad part is that the Nikkei is the laggard across most global markets. The Nikkei is roughly at the 50% retracement mark since the credit crisis crash.
  7. Soultrader
    Here we have todays candlevolume and equivolume in comparison on the Nikkei futures. Notice the break of the 30min range low was on a wide tall candle bar. This indicates a valid breakdown to the downside with a target at the previous day value high. When price reached the VAH pivot, we saw a fat squishy candle (slightly tall) but wait.... the next bar is a skinny toothpick looking bar. Thus a classic VAH play can be taken. The run up on the bounce of the VAH is followed by skinny bars indicating no demand. This is a warning signal and is followed by a power supply bar downwards to test the VAH once again. Notice the test is now on a skinny bar compared to the last test. The bottom chart shows equivolume. I personally find candlevolume a better way to visually see price action and volume combined.
  8. Soultrader
    Yes, on my platform is it labeled equivolume or candlevolume. I understand it is not widely used and therefore not readily available on all trading platforms. It makes VSA trading alot easier in my opinion.
  9. Soultrader
    Most of you are probably familiar with Equivolume and Candlevolume, but for those that live by price and volume this charting method is an extremely useful way of plotting price. Equivolume was developed by Richard W. Arms, Jr. and plots the low and high as a square/rectangle with the width representing volume. "Equivolume displays prices in a manner that emphasizes the relationship between price and volume." This is a very useful visual representation of the commitment and fight between buyers vs sellers. A fat equivolume tells us that alot of volume took place. If a fat squishy equivolume takes place at the top of a rally, this indicates that alot of buyers were still interested in pushing prices up but met as many sellers who were willing to dump it all at higher prices. These equivolume bars show a turning point. In my opinion, it is an easier way to see price charts compared to trying to match each bar with each volume histogram. Below shows a few samples of various equivolume shapes. Also attached is a free ebook from Richard W. Arms titled, "Trading with Equivolume". Now, exploring this further I would like to introduce candlevolume. This is actually a better way of viewing equivolume as it mixes traditional candlesticks with equivolume, hence you are able to see the open, close, high, and low. Below is a sample of a candlevolume chart. I will be adding a few charts of my own whenever I get a chance as well. One of the most useful ways to use candlevolume charts is to identify "test" of the PDL/PDH as well as spotting potential weakening rallies, lower volume pullbacks, trend continuations, strengthening declines, etc... Hopefully traders who already use this charting package can add their inputs here as well. Trading With Equivolume.pdf
  10. Soultrader
    Its not a TS function. That is Camstudio function in which is only possible when recording.
  11. Soultrader
    Im pretty sure it didnt. The original transformers from Japan are called Gundam which I think is currently an animation only. Im really not too sure as I hardly watched cartoons growing up.
  12. Soultrader
    Hi Vae victis, Welcome aboard! I look forward to your contributions here as well. James
  13. Soultrader
    Hi Jerry, Do you ever use the average of the past few trading sessions for the opening play? Or do you only take the previous session data?
  14. Soultrader
    Thread is closed. Sorry, but this thread is becoming a solitication thread and frankly I am tired of hearing about Felton or whoever he is.
  15. Soultrader
    Very interesting thoughts PYenner. I recently also had a similar conversation with a trading buddy about how Japan may be in the direction of being eliminated as a first world country. I can not vision this country blooming in the future. Our markets are below what was the high over a decade ago. We are smack in a middle of a market crisis. Subprime issues is just a small crack in an already broken down market. However, I like to see things positively. Even in the worst and chaotic times for the market there is always an opportunity for traders somewhere. Its interesting to see how the US is flipping out when suddently China's military starts to get big or how Russia tested the world’s most powerful non-nuclear air-delivered bomb. Or blaming Iran for its lack of progress in Iraq. (or maybe its just Bush) Definitely fear amongst the leading nations of our time. And whats funny is how the media tries to have people forget about all the market chaos, Iraq, political issues, etc... by hyping out how fat Britney Spears was on her comeback. That article was actually the most popular on CNN when it first came out. Unbelievable. I also find it amusing how Prime Minsiter Abe checked himself into a hospital and will remain their for the next few days due to a physical problem. So much BS and just running away from his problems as a failed prime minister. It just shows how weak and irresponsible our Japanese leader really was. We indeed live in some interesting times.
  16. Soultrader
    Thanks Dogpile, Im actually going to look into this behavior and jot down some notes and ideas on it. I have another question regarding the SD. How narrow is narrow? It appears that Jerry would take trades with risk:reward ratios of slightly below 1.0. I personally do not take these type of trades even if Im scalping. If scalping the minimum I aim for is a 1:1.5 risk reward ratio. I understand that these risk:reward thinking is not entirely correct as it is geared for newer traders. However, I just never found myself worth taking a trade with so little reward opportunities.
  17. Soultrader

    freda

    Soultrader replied to freda's topic in Beginners Forum

    Hi freda, Welcome aboard. Just out of curiousity, what do you currently trade? I look forward to your contributions
  18. Soultrader
    Thanks Blowfish, This will indicate that a trader using this methodology must wait until the VWAP, SD, and PVP becomes clear? The SD usually takes all morning before widening up for the Nikkei. This is why I was thinking of applying this technique for the afternoon only. However, I am trying to figure out a way to play the open. For example, if price is below the previous day VWAP and PVP go short, etc.... Im curious to here any comments on such strategy. Perhaps add a few filters like candle patterns, etc...
  19. Soultrader
    Article here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNuaC.IG9pWs&refer=home "We still hold our fundamental investment beliefs that sound economic investment principles coupled with a disciplined quantitative approach can provide strong uncorrelated returns over time,'' Goldman said in the unsigned report. Wait... didnt they say this about the Global Equity Opportunities quant fund when it lost 28%? "Goldman blamed its losses on too many quantitative funds making the same trades, and said in mid-August it would have to develop new strategies." You would expect Goldman to figure this out before losing money. Ive had it with funds blaming liquidity problems, other quant funds, etc... Didnt we all learn in trading that we must be reponsible for our actions? Alot of hedge funds seem to be still losing money. Bank and securities numbers are coming out this month with fed rates next week. Are we likely to see further decline if these funds start unwinding their positions? Expect a volatile week next week. Should be a whole lot of fun for private traders. You get to take the big boys (funds) money!
  20. Soultrader
    I never liked the Audi but... I fell in love with this. :thumbs up: http://www.audi.co.uk/audi/uk/en2/new_cars/r8/Design_Features.html
  21. Soultrader
    If trading in multiple lots, scaling out will help you stay on a trend. For me scaling out helps psychologically and have been able to capture good amounts of an intraday trend.
  22. Soultrader
    Welcome ajhunter, Torero has some good points there. I also think there are 2-3 GOOD setups a day. The rest is blah but scalpable. We have a great crowd here and very helpful group of traders. It has a very warm atmosphere and we do our best to rid of all the trash talk and bs. A tremendous amount of knowledge here on the boards and I hope you can learn something valuable ajhunter. Once again, welcome aboard.
  23. Soultrader
    Hi Jerry, I am still a little confused on what VWAP, SD, and PVP you use. Is the PVP the previous day PVP? Or do you use the current day's PVP. Also is this also the case with the VWAP and SD? If applying historical data in combination with todays VWAP, SD.... is this 2 days back? Or do you use a continous VWAP and SD for the entire contracts lifetime?
  24. Soultrader
    Thank you Jerry. Regarding the skew, a long position would be the option in a negative skew and a short for a positive skew? I think I may have these two definitions mixed up as I had though a negative skew with price action below VWAP would be a short and vice versa.
  25. Soultrader
    Thanks Jerry. I agree breakout at those points are extremely dangerous. I have been whipsawed heavily many times and now fear of taking these trades. I had thought maybe there was something you were seeing that led you to determine a breakout to the upside. Thanks again.
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