Soultrader

Thank you monad. Just doing my best to contribute Below shows short trade from todays session. I initially tried to short at the open but TICKS were still positive and price went on to rally over 70pts swiftly. Short entry was when price was rejected within previous day value and droppped below VAL. Reason again is my initial bias of lower or overlapping to lower value placement. It appears to be a open-test drive. Test upwards for supply which met with selling pressure and then rejection back down below value. Will post eixts later.

Quick update due to interesting premarket action. Im still looking for a potential short setup near the VAL pivot point. Chart below shows market profile chart and premarket resistance near this VAL level. If any case YM breaks this level to the upside, I am looking for a possible rotation towards VAH where I will once again start looking for short setups. Bias is currently short sided looking for possible lower value placement or lower/overlapping placement.

Study the relationship between the two markets. It is quite interesting and can often give you a heads up for the US markets and vice versa.

Expecting another tough day on Wall Street and my bias remains short. Below is a market profile chart of the Nikkei futures contract. Nikkei reacted negatively as expected on yesterdays US market decline with a gap down of over 350yen. "D" period broke out of the initial balance to the upside and appeared to show optimism. However, as soon as the afternoon session began (H period) the markets gapped lower and extended the range in the opposite direction. This price action here is showing extreme pessimism. For a more clearer view for non-MP users, below is a 5min candlestick chart of todays Nikkei action. Opening Types I wanted to cover two opening types in todays example. The first opening type is the open-drive in which the markets express strong confidence from the open and trends for the rest of the day. The opening price will usually be the low or high of the day. Also, once price breaks out of the initial balance we are less likely to see price return inside of the IB. Hence, there is strong buying/selling confidence expressed. The second type of opening is when the markets express mediocre confidence. Price will usually fall back into the initial balance once it breaks out before going in the direction of the initial trend. These are the days when one is uncertain if the rejection above/below the initial balance will force the markets to reverse and extend the range in the opposite direction or not. One way for me to play these IB rejection patterns is to plot a midpoint of the initial balance. The chart below shows the 60min high/low (blue line) and midpoint (redline). If mediocre optimism still exists, price is likely to fall back into the initial balance before lifting to the upside again. This is where I use the midpoint as a potential support area. If price holds above the midpoint, we are likely to attempt another range extension to the upside. If price falls below the midpoint, we are likely to extend the range in the opposite direction. In the chart above, the first attempt holds at the midpoint before another rejection causing price to drop below the midpoint and extend the range in the opposite direction. This concept is similar to the value area rule in which price will often test the other value area extreme once rejected above/below value. When playing the midpoint, it is good to have two sets of potential exit points. The two sets should be in expectation of a normal day or a normal variation day. In the chart above, an expectation of a normal day would be 0.5 times the distance of the IB to the upside. While a normal variation day would be double the initial balance to the upside. The same concept applies when price falls below the midpoint. A range extension will usually be 0.5 times or double the initial balance. Lets take another example from yesterdays YM market profile. You can then project potential exit points. Just a simple technique I wanted to share to determine the direction of a potential range extension.

Yes... I use price, volume, and market profile. The rest is useless in my opinion.

Brief analysis for what to expect on the YM for 1/16/08. CLICK HERE TO VIEW VIDEO

As some know I used to play poker professionally both on the tables and online. Online is where the quick money was made... averaging more money than most money wage based employees make in a day in 30-60minutes. On the other hand, playing on the tables was a pure grind for me. Looking to get 1-2 hands every 60-120 minutes. It was slow and required alot of discpline. Online poker a few years ago was extremely easy when newbies started crawling in from watching ESPN WSOP or Travel Channel Poker shows. As a matter of fact, my winning ratio was so good back then it is quite shocking. Now I do not play online anymore for two basic reasons. 1. I think the shuffling system is rigged. In other words, poker sites make money by allowing player to continue playing. Thus, spreading the wealth equally makes sense from a business perspective. This may sound like I am complaining... but I have seen way too many BS hands (myself and other players) that online poker no longer feels real to me. It is pure entertainment. 2. It became my life and career. Now I play as a hobby but still play to make money instead of playing for the excitement. A few advices... play bigger stakes so you have less newbies calling everything. Prey on the weak guys... I used to roam around small less known poker sites and play small 6 person tournaments. This was my bread and butter. Good luck! Good quote from Rounders.

Youre definitely going to get some slippage on the YM. You are better off with the ES.

Thanks James... have you tried those with pit noise? Must drive ppl crazy. :o Ill def check them out and see if I can get a pair in Tokyo.

I understand... unfortunately I am one of those that have a hard time trading inside a chat room due to the fact that I am easily influenced by other traders opinions. Also one of the biggest problems I had in the prop firm when every trader would be yelling out their trades. In my head I was like STFU! lol

Opening short setup from January 15, 2008. Initial short bias based on market profile and Nikkei market profile. Then narrowing it down on technical setups using TICKS and trade location based on WRB low as resistance. CLICK HERE TO VIEW PART 1 CLICK HERE TO VIEW PART 2 CLICK HERE TO VIEW PART 3

Here you go monad: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blog.php?u=1

I have a short bias because Nikkei is auctioning lower despite yesterdays rally in the YM. Hence, my bias is for price to auction within the 2 day value area. I am not expecting price to lift above value. Also, check my blog for a short entry on YM.

Okay Mondays action was quite unexpected with price rallying premarket and then forming value area in the upper range of 1/11/08 trading. Here we have below the Nikkei 225 market profile chart as of 1:00pm Tokyo time. We are seeing a potential double distribution trend day or normal variation day down. Range extension is over double that of the initial balance and is likely to move value lower. IB Range = 12 ticks Normal Day = Range extension 6 ticks below IB low Norma Variation Day = Range extension 12 ticks below IB low What is interesting is to see the Nikkei extend lower despite the US rally on Monday. (Monday was national holiday in Japan so markets was closed) This price action does create a slight short bias for the day and will look for potential short opportunities on the YM. Trade logs will be posted in my blog.

Hi Eva, Welcome to the forums and glad to have you on board. On your journey to being a full-time trader, you will encounter alot of noise that can prolong your step to a successful trader. For me, these distractions came in the form of technical indicators. My advice is to take the time necessary to educate yourself whether it be 2-4 years. Study price action and the teachings of those who preach it. Study Wyckoff, Jesse Livermore, Humphrey Neill, William Peter Hamilton, James Dalton, and Steidlmayer. Find your timeframe, style, and methodology. Become an expert in that methodology and specialize in certain markets. Its the 10/90 rule in which 10% of all traders make 90% of the money. So specializing always helps. Make sure you read Reminisce of a Stock Operator. Then reread it. Always be open to new ideas and flexible with your methodology that you develop. There are so many ways to profit from the markets... so never become stuck in a losing methodology. Adapt and adjust. You will meet alot of helpful traders here so always feel free to ask questions. Feedback in trading is extremely important. Once you figure out why you are losing, you will understand what not to do. Good luck!

Celtics are going to take over the east and west this year! Been supporting them since the Pierce/Walker era... glad to finally give Celtics fan hope with Ray Allen, Pierce, and KG. Any other bball fans here?

This section will be dedicated to anything to sports. I know a bunch of traders here are also sports fan so will be a good section to get your mind off trading at times. I have also added a espn bottomline bar for this forum only. Enjoy!

Youre right on track Tasuki. TPO counts is one of the ways a market profile trader can determine buyer vs seller control. What I have found more useful is just recognizing the profile types of the past few sessions, identifying who was in control through mp pattern recognition, identifying range extensions and tails, and identifying value area in comparison to the past few sessions. These aids me in short term market analysis. However, the analysis will constantly change with the developing profile, opening price, price action of global market, and any significant news.

I use a 22inch myself as well. Highly recommended, grabbed it for around $350. You might want to check this site here: http://www.tigerdirect.com/

Grabbed a short premarket on Friday show in my blog here. The reason behind this is simple. I am basing my trade ideas around market correlation and reaction of the US-Japan markes as well as reading market profile. First, on 1/10 showin the chart below, the YM rallied to extend well above the initial balance. Previous few sessions before it had shown signs of diminishing supply. This price action should of transferred over to the Nikkei the following day. However, on 1/11/08 auctioned lower regardless of optimism expressed in the US markets. This was a signal for further pessimism that had a chance of getting transferred back to the US markets for the 1/11/08 session. When it became apparent that the Nikkei would most likely finish with lower value placement, I grabbed a short on the YM. Entries and exits with charts are shown in my blog. On 1/11/08, YM rotated lower again creating a Normal Variation Day. Range extension was downwards approximately 2x the initial balance. Markets appear to not be ready to form value within the 1/10/08 value area. Hence, we are likely to continue to auction lower. This market profile analysis can also be confirmed on the daily chart. Selling volume has significantly increased. I had mentioned that the 12600-12650 area may hold. With Fridays action, I am now sensing further movement lower. Fridays profile: Normal Variation Day Value Area: Overlapping to lower Volume: Higher Indication: Bearish

Theres some really good insights in Markets in Profile so it wont hurt to read it. Steidlmayer's book is pretty similar to Daltons but its one of those reads that may you go Ah Ha!

Im assuming each trader has his own set of tools or analysis method to determine market direction. For example, if there is no fundamental reason for price to lift ouf of IB and into a new value area, I may decide to fade these moves. What I do is to watch global markets and their market profile charts respectively then watch internals as the US sessions opens. This allows me to get a feel of whether the YM is likely to move away from value or not. Its a method I picked up from my old trading boss.... approaching from a more macro view then narrowing it down to technicals.

Great! Looking forward to it James.

Below is a chart for the 3:10pm close. Markets held and closed at 14400.

That is just sooo wrong. lol