Soultrader

Attachment problem has been fixed. Please post here if you run into any issues with the blogs. I will leave this open for a few more days. Thanks

There has been a report regarding attachments on the blog. This is creating an error at the moment and we are working on this problem. Thanks

Hi milway, Just ran a quick google... came up with these: Midnight Trader Financial News Global Financial Data

As Kiwi mentioned the Nikkei SGX traded in Singapore is popular amongst institutional traders. The tick size is 1/2 of the OSE Nikkei. There are a few reasons why. 1. The SGX begins 15 minutes early at the open and 15 minutes early for the afternoon session. This combined 30 minute timeframe is extremely key to balance out positions amongst traders who have portfolios. 2. Lining up in que on the big OSE contract can be an issue. As the SGX Nikkei's minimum increment is 5yen, this makes it easier to enter and exit compared to the OSE Nikkei at 10 yen. 3. Plenty of arbitrage occurs between SGX and OSE. About 20% of SGX volume I would say is arb. (though this could be more) Reason #2 also applies to why the mini Nikkei is quite popular. Its simply easier to take profits at a better price compared to the OSE contract.

Anyone into self improvement books? If so, please share with us your recommendations. What I also find interesting is that after reading self improvement books... I do tend to become motivated and delighted. However, how many people actually apply what they have read or studied into their life?

I think you also need to consider bad beats when the exchanges goes down. CBOT has gone down a number of times in the past... luckily for me everytime i was in a position I happened to be on the right side. But opening up close to 70pts on the YM... there are traders who lost that much from such technical issues. Your PC crashing is another example. My PC one time broke down while in a position... I was down $3,000 before I could do anything about it.

Typical new trader mistake: being greedy for that extra tick. How many times have we waited for the extra tick just to see our profits rapidly disappear and exiting with a much smaller profit? How many times have we limped in with a solid hand just to face a very tough decision at the flop/turn/river just to end up losing the hand? How many times have we slow played a hand just to get beat at the river? These are all examples of greed in play trying to seek that extra profit. In the long run, this sort of play style will only hurt you in terms of PNL. Lets take a look at a few classic poker mistakes. 1.Limping in with pocket Aces expecting a re-raise preflop or someone making their top pair on the flop. This is a sneaky tactic but a dangerous one. The rewards may be high but the risk is high in my opinion. In trading, its sort of like trying to catch a falling knife. Why is this dangerous? Few reasons. First, many players are emotionally attached to good hands like pocket Aces. This makes it rather hard to impossible for them to lay down these hands. Second, limping in preflop allows mediocre hands like Q10 or J10 to play as well. A two pair is devastating when holding pocket Aces. Third, these hands tend to get out of control.... under certain sitatuions, one can be forced to make a decision to go all-in. Obviously one has a huge advantage pre-flop going all-in. But what if you made it cheap preflop which in turn ended up with 2-3 other players.... lets name a few possibilities of your opponents after the flop. 1. Flush Draw with top pair 2. high pair 3. trips 4. two pair 5. straight draw (though I doubt they will call an all-in) The above scenarios are cards that your opponent may call when put in an all-in situation against your aces. Now, right away if your opponent has the following hands: #3, #4 you are behind. #1 gives your opponent plenty of outs resulting in a gamble. Poker should be won with skill... never gambling. On the other hand, if he has #2 there is a good chance of doubling up. #5 is most likely out of the question as anyone who would go all-in with a straight draw are plain idiots. Now, all of a sudden your pocket Aces do not look to comforting does it? How many times have you folded pocket Aces and turns up to be the right decision? How many times have you gone all-in with Aces after the flop just to be beat? Personally I dont make much money with pocket Aces. Its a very volatile pair of cards. I tend to push strong preflop and just try to take it down at the flop. Most of my money comes from practicing patience, understanding the psych of my opponent, and taking in solid made hands. In other words, waiting for optimal setups. 2. Slow Playing Here is an example of a hand from last night. My cards: Q7 Opponent: ? Preflop: I called and opponent checks Flop: 2, Q, 5 I check and my opponent raises $400. I call thinking I may have him trapped. Turn: 2, Q, 5, K Now I am thinking if my opponent thinks he has a better hand than I do, he will bet. So I patiently check... my opponent surprisngly checks. Now this opponent is good enough to play all types of mind tricks. We read each other so much that sometimes we have to play dumb. In this case, he was playing dumb and pretending to show weakness by checking on the turn. River: 2, Q, 5, K, 7 I just made my two pair. Knowing that if my opponent was slow playing me, this could become a monster pot if I play him right. So I check pretending to have missed the flush. (flush draw since flop, though it was irrelevant for me) My opponent raises $1750. In my mind, this is precisly where I want him to be. No raise pre-flop meant he was not holding two face cards or any pocket pair. In other words, the odds of trips or KQ was low. A straight was out of the question, and with no flush possibility it meant that I would have to put him on a pair of Kings or two pair, possible with a queen. I pondered thinking for any clues that could put him on a K5 or K2. I knew K7 was probably not the case as I had a 7. But I sensed that he had something made from the flop and was slow playing early.... meaning that the K or 7 probably did not help him. I decided to re-raise $2,000. My raise blew his mind... and as frustrated as he seemed he called. He had a Q5 and I beat him with my Q7. This was a huge pot that almost doubled me up when I was somewhat small stacked and put me back to chip leader. So why did my opponent lose? He slow played. He bet weak on the flop and checked on the turn. This gave me a free river card, something that should of never happened. If he had raised at the turn, it would of made it extremely difficult for me to call with a queen and a weak kicker knowing that he raised flop and followed by a king at the turn. How many times have we slow played our two pairs till the river just to have your opponent catch a higher two pair? Or perhaps the board pairs up and all of a sudden your low two pair is no longer good? Slow playing is very rewarding as long as you have your opponent trapped. But slow playing to be greedy is a very dangerous tactic. Learn to take down pots. A free card for your opponent is actually a very expensive card for you.

Thanks for sharing. I have had my string of unbelievable bad beats also. I analyzed these situations intensely and what changed my mind was asking this quesiton: Did I lose because he got lucky at the river? Or did I lose because I limped in when I should of raised to push the weak hands out of the pot? A raise would of kept the K,10 in and pushed away the 8,10. Interesting isnt it? Here is what I do now. I may limp in with mediocre hands... but never make it cheap on solid hands.

There was a trade that really stuck to me placed by my former manager. The Nikkei has just experienced its worst decline in the last 7 years losing over 5% for the day. (August 17, 2007) While most of the traders on the prop desk had kept their shorts, he was long 200 big contracts at the close. The following day the Nikkei gapped up by 490 yen.... he banked in close to $1 million at the open. I asked him why he decided to go long...his reply, "The scent of the market." So what did he mean by scent? Was it intuition? Experience? Observation? The same scent exists in poker. What differentiates an okay poker player from a great poker player is his intuition and the ability to smell weakness/strength and exploit/be aware of these moments. So what are some of the clues that can help identify weakness/strength? 1. Behavioral/psych patterns 2. Betting patterns 3. Tone of speech 4. Time delay 5. Moment of silence (my favorite) Behavioral/Psych Patterns We all have certain behavioral patterns, some more visible than others. A nervous tick, a habit to scratch your head, crack your knuckles, look downwards, etc... Even a slight shift in the way one smokes a cigarette is a significant clue for the professional poker player. High level poker comes down to observation and awareness. Studying your opponent can take some time, sometimes days or even weeks. However, on the poker table one must be quick to observe and create a strategy on who to take money from and who to avoid. Prey on the weak hand.... this is how one can make a consistent living playing poker. Avoid the strong hands or respect them. They will respect you back. Most poker players are full of tells. Whether it be the way he leans back on his chair on a strong hand, leans forward and looks down on a weak hand, ponders on the flop and bets strong at the turn, etc.... these are all vital clues that can help you make that decision to call/raise/fold. Humans by nature have a tendency for their eyes to look down when they feel guilty. Now amateur poker players do this all the time. They look down while trying to be silent thinking they are not giving off any hints. Some amateur players tend to tilt their heads when they are pondering on calling. These tells are all signs of weakness. Lets take one example from a hand I had last night. Small tournament starting with $6,000 in chips My hand: A3 off-suit My opponents: ? Preflop: My raise of $400. Opponent calls. Flop: 2, 8, 6 (I raise $400) As I watched him call the flop, I noticed that we was cautious as if he was putting me on a higher pocket or as if he was holding a pair of eights and did not feel too confident with his kicker. Turn: 2, 8, 6, 10 I checked this time in order for me to grasp a better idea of his hand and to see if I could pick up any further tells on his hand. My opponent glances at me, looks at his chips, and checks. Now normally this opponent is fairly aggressive with the habit of re-raising. This to me was a signficant tell that there was a possibly I could steal this pot. River: 2, 8, 6, 10, Q This time knowing that he was weak handed and the 10 must of scared him, I was convinced that at best he was holding on to a 8 with a face card or 6 with a face card. I bet $1,000. My opponent thinks about it and then folds. I showed him my hand and he showed me his. K8 Lets take another example from a hand I had last night. Same tournament. My hand: 9,10 Same opponent: ? Preflop: My opponent raises $400. I call. Normally this opponent is fairly quiet preflop. He is more of a hand by hand player and rarely pushes aggressively preflop. This was a small clue. Flop: 2, 6, 9 I raised $400... small raise as I was not sure if I had the hand but wanted to pay for some information. 2 players after me folds. My opponent ponders as if he was thinking how to extract the most money then raises to $1,200. This raise triggered my attention. I had thought my 9,10 was somewhat strong seeing the flop. Its rather hard for a flop with low cards to help anyone who raised preflop UNLESS he is holding to higher pockets. I sat there thinking.... this was pretty late down in the tournament and my opponent was holding an extra $1250 in chips only. Which meant that the option at this point was to 1. Put him all-in 2. Fold Calling was not an option as it was obvious he was ready to move all-in on the turn. I sat there watching him. He leaned back, smoked a cig and exhaled upwards. For none smokers... heres a hint. Exhaling upwards is a sign of confidence. Go to any smoking section and watch the smokers puffing their cig. You can tell right away who is having a good day from a bad one. I folded and showed him my hand. Though he did not show me his, I was 100% convinced I had made the right lay down. He seemed a little frustrated for only collecting my blinds plus $400 from me. Following Next.... Betting patterns

Hello Nick and welcome to TL. I come from a professional poker background myself paying my way through college with poker money. Eventually I reached a point whether I was to go full out professional and live the casino life or seek an alternative job using my poker skills. My dillemma throughout my poker career was what other people thought of what I do. Obviously most people will view poker as gambling. This perception is the same in trading. Eventually I passed that and no longer care what other people think. Another concern I had was that I was young and was not sure if I wanted to dedicated my life to poker. I was literally a poker freak playing 10-15 hours a day... sometimes even sleeping on the tables. It was fun times but also missed out on alot outside of poker. Eventually I had a couple of relationships that took a downturn due to my poker. I realized I would never feel 100% satisfied with my life if I only played poker. Towards the end of my insane poker career, I met a prop trader who introduced me to the world of trading. I only needed to see him trade once to convince myself that was what I wanted to do for the rest of my life. Hence, I dropped poker for about 2 years and went on an mission to learn this game. I went from a good poker player to a bad trader. This was the toughest challenge for me... I tried to apply all my strength from poker into trading but failed. Although the psychology of the game is similar, I had to learn the rules of this game. It took me about 2.5 years until I fully understood the similarities between poker and trading. I began to understand when to fold (cut losses), when to push aggressive, and when to stand aside (stay flat). I learned that in intraday trading each bar left a clue similar to how the flop, turn, river leaves clues. I was an extremely good bluffer... taking down pots exploiting weakness of others. I was also good in analyzing situations, reading betting patterns, human behavior.. which allowed me to make good calls with weak hands. But starting out in trading I was only concerned about myself and not the psych of other traders. Eventually learning how to read volume efficiently, I was able to understand the hands of bigger traders. I play poke frequently now with a few buddies of mine but nothing hardcore like I used to. I feel alot healthier and my relationships with other people have improved since I made the transition. I do miss the good ol times sitting in a 8-10 person table with all your poker buddies and raking in pots after pots. Playing throughout the night... the regulars had a mutual respect for each other and most of the money flowed in from the newbies and players who came for the excitement. One of the big differences for me in trading and poker is the window of opportunity of pulling the trigger. In poker, you can have all the time in the world before making a call. In trading, hesititation puts you in with the herd. This was one area I had to train alot. Play enough poker and you realize how structured your game becomes. Almost systematic.. that you've seen every possible outcome, scenario, and situation. Making bets and folding becomes almost automatic. Did this intution and experience come over night? No.. unconsciously my brain and body knew exactly what to do in certain situations. It took me almost 3 years to really start seeing patterns in the market in which I can make choices whether the trade was low or high probability. Whether to press hard or decrease my size. I understood the risks and rewards... sometimes even if you think the opponent is bluffing, you may need to lay down your weak hand as the risk is too high. This is sort of like missing an ideal entry point.... dont chase. Just wait for the next bounce, your risk is lower. Anyways, good luck on your journey. Keep that Rounders quote in mind... "If you cant spot the sucker in half an hour.... you are the sucker."

Original Article Here

Thanks for all the responses. I will have something created by the end of the week as I am currently in the middle of making some changes to the way the forums are layed out. Thanks

Hello, This bug has finally been fixed after some serious digging. Thanks for the patience all.

Well theres really not that many private traders in Japan. Also, it will take some time to pick up. My assumption is that the mini-TOPIX will become popular similar to the mini-Nikkei due to the tick size. It allows more retail traders to enter the market. Dont know about the REITS though.... cant really see it taking off. Below is a chart for the mini-TOPIX. Volume is slightly higher but still low. Give it a few more months.. we should see more volume in this contract. Also alot of local brokerage firms are offering free commisions on the mini-TOPIX for promotion.

Hi MK, Volume is still pathetic. I have attached a daily chart and contract spec for both instruments.

Absolutely agreed. Trading is about probabilities and pushing it hard when the odds are stacked in your favor. I do not pay any attention to classic technical analysis patterns at all. Simple price action with volume and understanding key levels of potential support and resistance works best for me. However, price patterns have been important in my trading. By this I am referring to certain price bar patterns like WRB followed by upthrust, break of the low followed by bar higher than 2 bars back, support followed by test and higher low, etc.... I am mainly a reversal type trader looking for particular price patterns. I personally never found classic technical analysis patterns to be of any use. But thats just me.

hmm... im getting mixed feedback from members. I will wait a bit on this.

Ive been reading A Thousand Barrels A Second and surprised at my own ignorance of energy resources. Its been quite an insightful read as I possessed no knowledge of this market prior to it. What was fascinating for me was to learn that mankind used whale oil for energy prior to the switch to crude oil. Also, as there is a correlation between a country's economic progress and oil consumption... knowing that only only 8 out of 1,000 people in China possess vehicles is quite scary. Compare that with a global average of 120 out of 1,000 and 800 out of 1,000 in the US. The world itself is not really running out of oil. It is just becoming harder to find and more expensive to explore. This is due to the fact that easy locations no longer exists and men must explore in extreme areas of the world. I mean were are getting pretty desperate.. take a look at this article from yesterday. Below chart shows the total volume of oil discoveries in the past years. Pretty scary stuff.

I found this post on "Re: Bid/Ask Indicator Similar to TradeFlow in CQG" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month July, 2008"

I found this post on "I Look Back Now and Wonder" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month August, 2008"

Which post should win this monthly nomination contest? Choose from the topics (posts/threads) listed throughout the forum(s), and vote for your favorite post now. What is Topic Of The Month? Topic of the Month is a contest that select posts on which we would like the community to commit to as a group and then comment/discuss on them during the course of the selected week/Fortnight/month. Any listed topic (thread) is eligible for the Topic of the Month selection. What determines a Topic Of The Month? Topic Of The Month is based on a simple nomination system. Throughout the selected forums, members with adequate permissions can nominate their favorite topic by clicking on the award nomination button below the post. The topics with the most nominations during the course of the week/month are displayed on this thread using the poll feature. At the end of the month, the first three topics with the most nominations are the award winners of the contest.

Hi Blowfish, I know this has been kept on hold for a while. I am not sure if we can implement what you are looking for. We did upgrade the latest forum activity block... please let me know if you see any changes. Thanks

Hi jasont, Im not against therapy or seeking for professional help. But for a personal advice, all you need now is more experience. You need to practice, practice, practice on a live account. This is the only way to learn in my opinion... and the only way one will improve his emotional state while trading. The more times you place yourself in a emotional state AND practice on controlling it.... the better off you will be. I truly believe it is those who are constantly in an emotional state but unable to control or even apply the discipline to emotions are the ones constantly losing... knowing what is wrong with them but yet still unable to do anything about it. At this point, the trader needs to: A. Quit B. Seek help

Very mixed for Asian markets today. Value pretty much overlapping that of 7/8. Perhaps a 1.5 - 2pt scalping strategy for today. Or just sit tight and call it an early weekend. Slight hint on Nikkei holding firmly at yesterdays low. However, JGB declined but sensing good accumulation... not a pretty sign for the indexes. Good trading all.

Interesting action on ES yesterday. Afternoon rally was quite interesting. I am still cautious on the long side for ES... take a look at Nikkei profile. July 8th showed long liquidation... "b" profile after higher value placement from July 4th. Overlapping value prior to the 4th is confirming longs caught on the wrong side... hence the down trend and liquidation on the 8th. However, US markets rallied yesterday. Today (9th) the Nikkei gapped up, spent the entire morning rangebound then dropped. The "P" profile shows this as a potential short covering day with a close near the low of the range. Yesterday could be a bull trap on the ES. See chart below. Afternoon rally looked good but value is still enclosed within the previous day and not higher. What the DAX and FTSE do may be key today for the ES. (DAX is rangebound but sensing some selling pressure at the moment). Crude is slighly up as well.