Soultrader

Hi Jean, Welcome aboard! Looking forward to your interactions on the forums. Best Regards, James

I have the same issues with FF as well. Im thinking there is a preference setting somewhere that will lower the cache time limit somewhere? I often have to refresh TL just so the favicon goes back to the TL and not the previous website like gmail, google, etc... Definitely a slight bug in FF.

Very similar to the Nikkei daily charts in comparison with global indices. A bit of strength today on the Nikkei despite all the negative news out on the Asian markets tanking. You'll see short covering at the opening and pretty much holding for the rest of the day followed by further rally in the evening session. DAX is showing even more strength than the Nikkei. A little premarket resistance on ES at 1154.

Yesterday the Dow recorded its worst single day drop ever of over 750 pts. This is slightly worse than the first trading day after the 9/11 attacks. Yesterday Nikkei expressed severe weakness breaking at key support level despite the somewhat optimistic news on the $700billion bailout over the weekend. At first, it appeared that traders did not think the bailout would save the financial markets. I was extremely pessimistic going into the US session... and due to the rejection of the bill we witnessed a crash. A little on the VWAP I use the 24 hour session VWAP as a dynamic support and resistance tool. This is primarily because institutions use this marker to buy/sell contracts. Yesterday premarket ES, showed resistance at the VWAP and then tanked shortly afterwards. Thoughts on the upcoming weeks/months.... Investors and traders are expressing severe pessimism in the financial markets. Even after this crisis settles, will fresh money be poured into the financial system? Or are we likely to see a shift in foreign investment into other markets? Quarterly chart on ES... retracement for long term participants? Where will the money flow next?

This one I found funny.. stupid reporters! http://www.time.com/time/quotes/0,26174,1844590,00.html

Hi Kiwi, Thank you for the response and your story. I think the problem is with amateur investors who will never listen to anything negative when long. I literally had to fight with some of my family members regarding their positions. What first alerted me was them investing without a slightest clue. The problem began when they actually made money in the bull market... this sort of led to them not listening to a word I said. Also the fact that I was just a young 20's kid trying to talk about the markets. Not much credibility there either.... Fortunately no one got hurt as bad as it could of been but it has been frustrating for me living in a society when young people are never taken seriously. In parts of Asia including Japan, Korea, Taiwan.... the respect for the elderly plays such as strong role in the culture that credibility can only be achieved through age. How do you convince an amateur investor to sell when his position is still in the green? Its not so easy to do from my experience. Going back to the failure rate of 95% of all market participants... I now feel like this number is off. Its sort of like counting bums as part of the unemployment rate. Most market participants will never care to learn about investing or trading. If you actually exclude the participants who are actually serious in succeeding in this game... I feel that the success rate should be alot higher.

Some thoughts on the current maket turmoil.... Roughly 5 years ago, I was still living the lifestyle of a poker player. A turning point in my life led me to enter the world of trading... in 2003 I did not even know what a stock or bond was. My first book I ever purchased on finance was "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham. I am quite thankful that this was the first book I picked up because at that moment in time I was so fascinated by his work that by the end of 2003, I had finished over 130 books related on finance and trading. My Amazon bill was something like $7,000 or so... I entered the trading arena without a freaking clue on what to do.... had no knowledge on various order types and traded NASDAQ stocks without even knowing there was a thing called the futures market. Sold just cause the RSI told me to.... bought cause stochastics crossed. I recall my first trade ever on my Ameritrade account and I made money. I thought I was a genious back then. Well... we all know what happened shortly after. Anyways, I have read plenty of times in various trading books going back to the early 1900's about the public sentiment during booms and busts. The best news occurs at the tops... the worst news occurs at the bottom. I decided to dig deeper by studying past newspapers to understand the reaction and confidence level of the public during these times. The past 2 years have been quite fascinating for me. It was my first time ever to really experience live what a bull market and a market crisis was. I mean to experience and read about it are entirely different things. I recall, the first market correction back in August 2007. Most traders and analysts were simply saying it was just a normal correction. Yes, the Dow did make new highs afterwards but what happened shortly after? Volume had diminished throughout the rally and we were seeing rising prices on decreasing volume.... wasnt this a clear warning sign? I remember the general public being extremely bullish... alot of people around me had purchased their first home around the top of the uptrend in both Jun - July 2007 and September - October 2007. I recall amatuer investors around me buying mutual funds, ETF's, etc.... and a heavy promotion of these products by Japanese banks. In June of 2007, I had my grandparents liquidate there entire portfolio of Chinese and Vietnamese stocks. However, this week I found out that they had actually gone back to investing in the stock market due to their broker recommendations. Yesterday I receive a call asking me what they should do. Is this how the public acts? When the public can no longer deal with the pain.... they will look for confirmation. I have a family member still holding a stock from 1990 at the Nikkei top. How many times have I talked him into selling the stock? Well they say Japanese people make the worst investors... I understand this clearly now. Loyalty may be a good thing... but not in the stock market. It seems like the only thing Japanese investors know what to do is to buy... and never sell. I also recall Bush stating that the health of the US economy was good... this was a little while after the double top on the ES. Gradually as the markets started declining... his comments went from confident to somewhat worrisome to now a complete disaster. So perhaps we can use Bush as a contrarion indicator. Short > scale out > and finally cover. Although current conditions are affecting alot of people globally from employment to foreclosures...and I know alot of people have it pretty bad right now. But personally I have found this experience to be one of the most exciting moments in my trading career. There was alot to learn in these past 2 years.

A few more interesting articles: Why European banks will not be bailed out Japan offers solution to financial crisis

hehe u kidding? I was going to retire with that $10million. We could do some kind of group effort.... but it will have to be kept as a private thread. Will need to see how many folks are interested though.

I just submitted my idea as well under category education. I am so going to win this thing! Check it out here: http://www.project10tothe100.com/index.html Or read about it here: http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/biztech/09/24/google.project/index.html

A little off topic but Lehman and Merrill have been banned of their trading license in Japan. Also hearing rumors of Macquarie in serious trouble.

Thanks for sharing your experience as well. This is something many starting traders get caught up in... my first year in trading I shed out over $7,000 in trading books just to find 90% of them absolutely useless! But sometimes I wonder.. was the wasted money just a step to figure what I know now?

Article here: http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/14/news/companies/lehman_brothers/index.htm?cnn=yes

Lehman Fails to Reassure Investors About Its Future Article here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/26636665

Uncle Sam: $407 Billion in the Hole Article here: http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/09/news/economy/cbo_budget_update/index.htm?postversion=2008090915

CNN seems to think otherwise: http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/08/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?postversion=2008090811 Surge in volume on the Nikkei today as well: A bit unclear for me today.... though I am anxiously waiting on Lehmans announcement next Wed. Article here: http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/09/news/companies/lehman_release/index.htm?postversion=2008090920 Also 10yr US Treasury chart shows extremely bullish sign on the 8th of September on the Fannie Mae/Freddi Mae acquisition by Uncle Sam. First move lower but nothing but accumulation..... a bit worrisome for the stock indexes.

The Asian markets were weak yesterday but did not expect the ES to collapse like that. SunTrader, good one on the retracement. Today, we got a nice bounce on the Nikkei to finish within the previous days range. My only concern is that from a market profile chart, it looks like a complete short covering. Now I am not sure how this info will be transferred to the US... many may not view it as bullish and will continue the selling pressure... Or many may view it as bullish and express more confidence on the buy side.

Thanks! I do not entirely recall the tape on this day, but by looking at the picture I posted the big lots most likely hit the ask. Its not often you see a 300 lot on the KOSPI so I must of been alerted when this happened. The diamonds are simply paintbar like tools. I have a set formula to help me identify rejection patterns visually. Its based on the spread of the bar and volume in comparison with previous bars. The volume panel... red simple means less volume than one bar before. Blue simply means more volume than one bar before. Hope this helps.

The platform is CQG. Pricey but good.

Article here: http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/09/09/enron.settlement/index.html

Hi JBD, You can also try the Coding Forum located here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f56/

No it will not. It looks like the after hours session will be held on the CME similar to the Nikkei.

Its the most active from 8pm EST to 2am EST. The CME session will basically be a evening/overnight session trading period for those based in Asia. I would expect to see as much volume as the ES during off-market hours.

CME Group, Korea Exchange Sign KOSPI 200 FUTURES Electronic Trade Agreement FYI - News Release here

Please note I have deleted 8 posts that contained arguments between members irrelevant to Walters thread. One member has been banned for repeated bashing comments. Thanks.