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Soultrader
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Everything posted by Soultrader
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This reference applies to most futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade. Rollover is 8 days before contract expiration. Rollover is usually on the second Thursday of every month. However, if the first day of the month is a Friday, the rollver day will be the first Thursday of the month. Expiration day is the 3rd Friday of the following months: March, June, September, and December. The contracy symbol associated with the expiration months are: March = H, June = M, September = U, December = Z. For example, the emini S&P symbol is the ES. So the symbol the emini S&P December contract would be ESZ06. (06 being the year) Liquidity of the contract will shift on the rollover date. Make sure you trade the correct contract. You should be able to notice by the lack of liquidity in your underlying instrument. If you are swing or position trading several days before rollver, make sure to use the newer contract instead.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." - Wayne Gretzki In poker lingual.... you can't win what you don't put in the pot. You can be the tightest player in the world. You won't lose any money. But you definitely won't make any money. Our minds automatically avoid pain for pleasure. This is how our brain is programmed. New traders who have the trouble of pulling the trigger associate a trade with a potential loss that can cause financial or emotional pain. Do you imagine taking the trade and never pulling the trigger? Are you right on your analysis but are unable to execute just to watch the markets runaway from you? The biggest conflict that is causing this is your belief in pain. This may be caused by your pain for loss or your need to be right. The need to be right is associated with the need to be perfect every time. If you are a perfectionist there is a conflicting belief that you must eliminate to trade successfully. Perfectionists believe that there is a "correct way" and a "wrong way". Taking a loss is considered the wrong way to them. Trading is a game of probability. And it is not about being wrong or right. It is about making money. You must get used to dealing with uncertainty. There is no exact science in trading and nothing can be predicted in advance. However, with enough experience in the markets you will be able to smell market weakness from market strength. For those who are having trouble taking losses, you are overweighing the loss. If you know your risk parameters there should be no problem taking a trade. Perhaps you are not confident in your own trading methodologies. Have you tested your setups? If you have a strategy that is 70% profitable, take the trade. Once again trading is a game of probabilities. If you have a proven setup with strict money management, you will be profitable. Have faith in your methods. For some people they are unaware that the markets they are trading does not fit their personality. If you like a slow market you should stay away from the S&P. Trade corn instead. Know your personality and find the market that suits you. This is one mistake alot of traders make. Thus, trading is not only about understanding the markets. It requires self-understanding as well.
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Interesting. I completely agree that by mastering support and resistance levels you will have no problem eating for the rest of your life. I will check this book out, I am sure I will find something to gain. Thank you for the recommendation.
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After a boring market on Sept. 6, 2006 the overnight session moved price below the critical 11400 mark. This break is very very key in interpreting market action. Why? This is a critical resistance level ever since May. This is also the August 18th high which the markets tested several times. It finally broke through this resistance on Sept. 1st. What worried me about this breakout on Sept. 1st was the lack of volume. However, the daily charts showed bullishness in regards to technicals. This overnight rejection pushed prices below value and below the weekly pivot indicated by the chart post in attachment 1. The weekly pivot then acted as resistance as the market opened leading to a declining morning session. This information alone would of told you that today was a short selling day. Today's break will be key to watch as it will test the trendline established from late July. Please see the second attachment for the daily chart.
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I have spent some time in Christine Grace's trading room in the past. She used to hold a trading channel at the Market Vu Show. She has now moved and holds a trading room with Alex Benjamin who is well known for his expertise in market profile. Her website can be found here: www.bestrades.net.
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Newtrader, I posted a two part video on tape reading. It is definitely not the best video because of the market conditions on Sept. 6, 2006. The markets was literally dead. I tried to make 3 parts to this but did not see the need to because of the dull market. CLICK HERE FOR VIDEO THREAD
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I would have to agree with luke. Those several thousand dollar seminars are a big waste of money. If you are going to spend $3000 on a weekend seminar, trade 1 lots and lose it all. At least you gain the experience. Investing in yourself is always good. But invest wisely. If you do want some experience under a professional trader, why dont you join a trading room and just watch and listen for 2-3 months. This is alot better than attending a 3-5 day seminar costing thousands.
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You mean you average down on a losing positon? How many times has that helped you? One of the rules I follow is to never average down but I am aware that for some people it does work. Most of your stop placement is done at or near high volume areas? This is interesting because this would mean your core trading philosophy is volume based.
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Thats pretty much what need. I trained my brain to go on autopilot. Tape reading is a very hard skill set to learn and takes hundreds or thousands of hours to master. I know as a new trader tape seems very confusing but once you understand what it is you need to look for, it is not that hard. I made a tape reading video during yesterdays unbelievably boring market action. (Sept. 6, 2006) We literally had no movement in the markets. I will upload it now and post them when it's ready.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Soultrader replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Welcome aboard Visionary! Feel free to contact me anytime if you have any questions regarding the website. -
Tough question.... but I might recommend High Probability Trading by Marcel Link.
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Combine it with the premium. The TIKI can give you a heads up before buy and sell programs kick in. But overall, I don't use it too much.
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This is a chart post of Sept. 6th, 2006. Here we have the opening gap for about 40 points below value. The markets opened right at the S1 pivot line. However, we had very boring and dull morning session giving no opportunity of a trade.The TICK's and market internals are weak but there is no movement in price. The markets are stuck in a 20 point opening range. Understanding when to trade and when to remain flat is important in trading. In today's morning session, the best position is to be flat. A conservative trading method in such an environment would be to play new TRIN highs or lows. TRIN range breakouts are powerful trading signals.
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Whether a trader use hard stops or mental stops is the traders preference. I personally use a hard stop. As soon as I enter, I place a 10 point stop on all my trades. As the trade works in my favor, I will adjust my stops accordingly. One topic I want to discuss is the difference in using hard mechanic stops to mental stops. For a new trader starting out in trading, I always recommend a mechanical stop. But like all new traders do, they will tend to move their stops when they are in a losing position. Bob Pretchter argues that stops should be used by real-time analysis and not by price. I agree to an extent that a stop or exit signal should be based on what your initial reason for entry was. If your entry signal was based on a indicator, your exit should be based on that indicator as well. It is common knowledge that floor traders like to push prices to trigger stops. This is because new traders tend to place their stops in the same exact location. How many times have you seen a market break the low by a few ticks, take alot of new traders stops out, then reverse? Plenty. I personally use mechanical stops. This is because my trades are done strictly around price levels without the use of indicators. I know that if price drops 10 points past the pivot, I am wrong. This is automatic. I would love to hear more on this topic for anyone who may find that article interesting. Thanks
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Continuation of this thread: Identifying the %TREND Always watch out after a powerful trend day. The markets will trend 30% of the time and consolidate 70% of the time. Making money in a trending market is easy. Consolidation is what makes new traders broke. The %TREND is useful to identify whether we will have a trend day or a rangebound day. The markets like to take a breather after a strong trend day and there is a higher probability that the following day will be rangebound. If the %TREND is high, that means the market closed far away from where it opened. If the %TREND is low, that means the market closed near the open. On a high %TREND day look for a low %TREND day the following session. On a low %TREND day look for a higher %TREND day the following session. The calculations for the %TREND are listed in the thread: Identifying the %TREND
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The TIKI is the same as the TICK except it applies to the 30 Dow stocks. It is simply the upticking stocks minus the down-ticking stocks. The TIKI is not as useful as the TICK but I do use it for my trading tool. What's important is watching out for the extreme TIKI readings. The rest is noise. I have lines plotted across +26, +28, +30, -26, -28, and -30. Extreme readings are potential fades. The TIKI is also used to watch out for buy or sell programs kicking in. If the TICK and TIKI is both at extreme readings, price movement is most likely caused by sell/buy programs.
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I recommend the YM or mini-sized dow futures. The ES is also good but you may need to use a wider stop compared to the YM. I think its traders preference. Obviously the ES is more liquid. Its like the YM on speed. I personally find the NQ to be useless. I wrote an article before for a different forum on "Why the NQ sucks"
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How effective is the 15 minute intraday breakout?
Soultrader replied to TAking's topic in E-mini Futures
Rather than using time as a factor, why don't you rely more on key levels? Also, I think the opening range is something professionals tend to look at. Not exactly the 15 minute range. -
When your analysis pays off you feel like the man every now and then. In this thread I would like to explain the importance of overnight session again. A video analysis of the opening action can be found here for Sept. 5th, 2006. CLICK HERE FOR VIDEO THREAD In the video, I mentioned the premarket price rejction right above value high. I also mentioned the daily pivot as a good place to go long. Take a look at the chart attached. When prices were rejected above value and pushed back into value, it was an indication that price will trade within or below value for the trading day. In today's action, price did exactly that.
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Most trading platforms should include a description but I do not recommend it. Alot of indicators are used wrongly and has somewhat become the standard. Here is a book I recommend if you want a more detailed definition for most technical indicators: The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators - Robert W. Colby
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Soultrader replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Thank you Ross We hope you enjoy your stay here. Also note the music player we added today. Sit back relax and learn about trading. Also, feel free to contact me anytime if you have any questions about our website. Thanks -
Hello scalper101. If you have any questions about the site, please feel free to contact me anytime. Thank you for registering!
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Marlon, I just posted a video I made. I was in a rush trying to trade and record so its fairly short. You may find it useful with opening gaps and opening action. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-videos/283-sept-5th-2006-premarket-open.html
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On Friday, Sept. 1st, we had a significant breakout from a key resistance level at 11420. This was the August 18th high and a 3.5 month resistance level on the daily chart. While Fridays action confirmed an official breakout, we will need to watch these levels carefully to see price acceptance. Todays value area: 11438 - 11488 If prices can maintain acceptance within or above value, we are likely to have further confirmation of the breakout. However, if prices close below value this can be a leading warning signal for breakout failure. Note: Look to see market strength or weakness in the morning session. If price can remain above value low, there is a possibility of a burst in the afternoon. We are in uncharted territory and can see alot of new market participants entering the markets.
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In a fast moving markets, one minute wonder bars work better than volume. This is because analyzing volume relative to uptrend and pullbacks are more hindsight. Of course, volume is important as well.