Soultrader

The day my trading turned around was when I took all indicators off my charts. Now I trade with a candlestick chart only. No moving averages, no indicators, and no volume. I read volume through the tape and I use a market profile chart as well as market internals to trade. Price action is king. But it takes hours and hours of staring at price to fully understand price action.

Theres a couple methods to anticipate a choppy day. This is not 100% exact but gives me a good heads up. If you have pit noise this will help. The lower the pit noise, the likely the lack of interest. Hence a choppy market. Also consecutive trend days happen on rare occasions. You can expect a market to take a breather after a trend. Fridays (Sept. 29) action was after 3 consecutive higher value placements. Usually indicates a choppy market. Look at the opening half hour range as well. If the range is less than 20-25 points on the YM, expect a choppy market. Always better to sit tight and play the pullback of the breakout of the range. The %TREND also helps. Try doing a search in the forum... there is a formula to obtain it. Also notice the volume on Friday. If you are familiar with the average volume on the YM, we had significantly low volume. This also indicates a choppy market. Remember, being flat is a part of trading. Alot of traders I know did not trade on Friday. They thought I was crazy to be trading that day. There will be days when its simply a bad idea to trade. Identifying days of no opportunity and good opportunity will be key to longevity.

Interesting.... although I can not agree with his comment of "who needs those stick'in prices". I actually landed on his site a few months back and read the free file or pdf he offers. Learned all about the CCI trading patterns but never bothered using them or checking it out. He must be in love with the CCI to hold such confidence in it. Did you find trading purely on the CCI profitable?

An entertaining story about a group of hedge-fund cowboys taking place in Japan. Somewhat fictionalized as some of the events and places do not match the actual facts. (I know because I am born and raised in Tokyo) The main character, "John Malcom", is a Princeton graduate who goes to work for "Dean Carney" for Kidder Peabody located in Osaka, Japan. After the scandal of Joseph Jett and Nick Leason, he then goes to join Carney's hedge fund ASC. A good page turner that involves money, sex, Yakuza mobs, and romance. The book takes a look inside the Japanese underground known as the Water Trade. This refers to the sex industry/business which is mainly mob run. If you are looking for a quick entertaining read on hedge-fund cowboys making a fortune trading the Nikkei, I recommend it. I finished this book in a day and found it to be good page turner.

I dont find them inaccurate but I have my own preference for plotting pivots.. I also like to customize the lines to dotted, solid, and different colors. I also like the option of enabling or disabling midpoints. Antonio (ant) made a custom pivot point indicator for me on TS... I will post them in the indicator forum. Im trying to design the forum in a custom format... should be done in a few hours.

It took me 2 - 2.5 years. 6 months of staring at a candlestick chart with only time of sales. 8 months of consistently losing money. 4 months of devising setups. Another 3 months of losing money. 6 months of perfecting my setups, gaining more market understanding, and break even/profits trading. Which was alll worth it in the end. I havent looked back ever since.

Hey Maverick, For the weekly pivots, I use the last week (M-F). For the monthly pivots, I will use the last month. Besides the daily pivots, all I really need to do is change the numbers before the opening of every Monday and at the beginning of every month. Excel makes my life alot easier. Simply use formulas and input the high, low, and close to get the pivots.

I think you are on the right track towards learning this game. If you are willing to put up $20,000 as tuition money you will have plenty of room to learn. Just make sure you trade small until you are able to establish consistency. To comment on trading methodologies, you are at a phase of experimenting with various methods. I suggest you continue to do so but eventually start developing your own. Your methodology should be branded by you. This allows you to have your own trading style. Learn the pyschological side of trading. Losing 40% of your stake is painful... but make sure to keep a trading journal and learn from all the mistakes you have made and will continue to make.

I tend to use market internals to anticipate breakouts. One method I use is new TICK/TRIN highs or lows. You can also use the PREM to spot any buy/sell programs at key price levels. For methods to anticipate a pattern failure, if a key level of resistance is above a range I usually short at this level. For example is the YM is stuck in a range from 11770 to 11790 and 11800 is a key level of resistance, I will usually fade this level aiming for a breakout failure. I noticed that key price levels take several attempts to break. Usually the first attempt is a good fading opportunity.

It seems like each day there is another complicated trading system in development. I am quite surprised to see the trading population dig into more complex methods combining various indicators to profit from the financial markets. How many confirmations does one need? By the time all your indicators confirm a buy or sell signal, your entry point is towards the end of the price swing. K.I.S.S. Keep it simple stupid! Simple methodologies have been proven to work in the financial markets. There are numerous traders who use a simple breakout strategy, pivot point strategy, or RSI and price divergence. Is there really a need to make trading so complicated when simple systems are proven to work? I have noticed that academics, engineers, and programmers turned traders are often the ones involved in designing complicated systems. Perhaps they are underestimating the simplicity of trading? Trying to incorporate vast information and multiple indicator confirmation signals can lead to analysis paralysis. This can cause a trader to freeze in the moment of action and to hesitate in pulling the trigger. What happens if 4 of your indicators signal a buy and 4 other indicators signal a sell? As a discretionary trader, I try to keep things as simple as possible. What a trader really needs is to understand the language of the markets. The market is like a speechless baby. It is impossible to understand exactly what he is saying but through observation, one can start to get a feel of expression. Still, trading is a game of probability. But with the proper training of market understanding and market internals, a trader can put those odds in his favor. The majority of the trading population refuses to think on their own. Being mentally lazy is deadly in the financial markets. Perhaps this is the reason why people continuously seek for the Holy Grail through indicators and systems. They look in places where there are no answers. The only place they should be looking is in the mirror and in themselves. Trading should be simple. But the simplicity of it comes through hours of hard work and training. Trying to catch the subway in Tokyo, Japan can be disastrous for the first timer. But after living in the city for some time, one should be able to get across with his eyes closed. Good luck, best of trading.

I dont use moving averages on my intraday charts but am careful for the 200 MA on the 5minute chart. This can act as support or resistance mainly because other traders watch this.

Read all three. They come cheap and you have nothing to lose.

You really need to make your own. Your method of analysis may require different set of data. Use an excel spreadsheet to plot down highs, lows, open, close, gaps, etc... Take note of market action or any economic numbers coming out. I'll post a picture of my spreadsheet but can't send it over. Hope this gives you an idea. Note: I have 4 different pages on the spreadsheet. The first page is basic data, second is pivot points, third is any key price levels, and last is stats for all my setups/trades.

Some good points. I also have a maximum loss amount of 30 points a day. I trade the best in the opening hour. My strength lies more in the morning session compared to the afternoon. Most of the time my daily goal will be met in the morning and will usually take the rest of the day off. This is because I tend to give back profits in the afternoon.

Anyone else have a tough trading day? One of the biggest reason I had a tough day was: 1. Low volume 2. Should of stayed out and I didnt 3. TICKS appeared strong yet price fell on its own weight 4. Market internals were unreliable 5. Choppy Why did I still trade? GREED. It wasnt lack of discipline because I actually took my usual setups with only 5 rt's.

Doesn't it hurt to see promotions like that? What's sad is that many novices do get conned into believing a perfect system exists and that money can be made from the markets without using their head. Sarah, if you are looking for your money to work for you look into a mutual fund. The money is slow but your chances are alot higher than buying a bs system.

"To date 90% of our trades have been successful." The moment I saw this I knew not to buy this system. Why would anyone sell a system that gives such excellent results? Any system that promotes in this manner is a scam for novice traders who can not think on their own. Following another persons market calls is a sure way to lose. You will never learn how to trade properly.

For those trading the eminis, I would like to know what your daily goal is? How many points do you aim for each day and do you quit after youre daily goal is met?

I know this is a favorite among traders. But in my opinion, it is overated. The concepts are nothing new. Van Tharp simply went into more depth of things that can be explained in a few lines. For a novice trader, this book can be of tremendous help. It goes through money management, trader psych, system designing, efficiency ratio, etc.. I would say Van Tharp does an excellent job explaining the preperation a trader needs to do each day. Trading should be treated like a business. Have a business plan and understand the reasons why you want to trade for a living. Considered a classic among many traders, this book will help many novice traders in developing a professional approach to trading the markets.

This is a common pattern in the YM. The markets will usually test above or below the value area to see if there are sellers/buyers in that zone. If not, price will get pushed back into value to test the other extreme. Whenever the previous days high and low is right above/below the value points, watch these levels closely. The markets have a tendency to test these areas before a reversal.

I hope this does not make me unethical but I would disagree with that statement. We have become traders to profit from market inefficiency's. I say this because as a trader, I am looking for opportunities in the financial markets. If a trader can not short a stock because one feels unethical, I find it hard to make any money in the market. Your profit is another man's loss. Is that considered unethical? I do not think it is fair to say traders are unethical since they would short an airline stock that just had an accident. (or other examples) We are trading supply and demand or numbers. When I trade stocks or futures, 80% of the time I do not watch the news. I just trade price action. I will find out any siginificant news on the market after the close.

haha nice follow up Trade Up. My answer is YES! I did find one way to avoid boredom though. I started playing online poker on my extra monitor. This keeps me occupied.

I totally agree. As a intraday trader I sit by my screens all day. Trading can be very boring sometimes especially in a dull market. When my daily goal has not been met, I tend to seek for opportunities where there is none. This forces me to make stupid trades that offer absolutely no reward.

BA, Masters, PHD required? NO. Intelligence required? YES I know alot of traders who do not have college degrees and are very successful. But one trait in common is that they are street smart. Bookies tend to make good traders also. Higher education is definitely not necessarily to be a professional trader. But at the same time, you need to be somewhat intelligent. Afterall, intelligent people are usually attracted to the markets and you are going against some of the smartest minds in the world.

Very true EZ. In order to achieve, you must want it badly. I dont believe in doing anything half way. That is why trading should be a full profession and not a part time hobby. A hobby costs money. That is why it is so hard to teaching people how to trade. Most new traders simply lose motivation and passion once they realize what it takes to become a professional trader.