Soultrader

Hi Raul, Once you draw the high and low off the 15minute bar, do you use the 100tick bar to gauge momentum of the breakout? Im curious on your methods on watching momentum for the break. I would still prefer the tape but would be interested in combining another method. Thanks

Hi Torero, We had a server crash this morning so this is the only log I was able to save. I was booted off the site for a good hour. [TinGull] 9:49 am: yea, they're hanging out in the noise zone, though [namstrader] 9:49 am: we have a BB squeeze now too in the chop zone [TinGull] 9:49 am: negative ticks [soultrader] 9:50 am: hmm i stoped using it [soultrader] 9:50 am: itll have the take out that lower tick reading [TinGull] 9:50 am: ticks keep making lower highs too [Trading Room]: feb2865 has entered at 9:50 am [soultrader] 9:51 am: hey raul we are all waiting for you to start selling 100 lots on the ym [TinGull] 9:51 am: [soultrader] 9:51 am: actually a 1000 would do [JayRemy] 9:51 am: lol [feb2865] 9:52 am: lol [feb2865] 9:52 am: the market got stuck [soultrader] 9:52 am: yea half the dow stocks are green and red [Trading Room]: gomes has left at 9:52 am [Trading Room]: gomes has entered at 9:52 am [TinGull] 9:53 am: low tick [soultrader] 9:53 am: that 35 prints look good [soultrader] 9:54 am: er2 is making lower highs [TinGull] 9:54 am: nasdaq just went red, too [soultrader] 9:54 am: dow still needs to take out the low [namstrader] 9:55 am: what is holding the bus here [TinGull] 9:55 am: SOX index is at a 20 and 50 MA...could be holding the market [soultrader] 9:55 am: 36-37 should be short term resistance now [TinGull] 9:56 am: here goes the dow [TinGull] 9:56 am: nasdaq took out its lows [soultrader] 9:56 am: er2 new lows also [namstrader] 9:57 am: new tick low momentarily [TinGull] 9:57 am: nice and steady lower highs on the tick [soultrader] 9:58 am: 29 is key [soultrader] 9:58 am: did not want to seee that 36 [TinGull] 9:59 am: yea [TinGull] 9:59 am: not impressed [TinGull] 10:00 am: was happy when I saw the 30 prints [TinGull] 10:00 am: hehe [feb2865] 10:00 am: spiky morning [namstrader] 10:00 am: exit 40 stopped again [TinGull] 10:00 am: theres some buying [soultrader] 10:01 am: tick at upper range but amaking lower high [soultrader] 10:01 am: im flat [Trading Room]: guavaman has left at 10:01 am [soultrader] 10:01 am: grrr [TinGull] 10:01 am: i hear ya [JayRemy] 10:01 am: wow [TinGull] 10:02 am: 1000+ tick [soultrader] 10:02 am: look at the er2 go [Trading Room]: guavaman has entered at 10:02 am [guavaman] 10:02 am: [TinGull] 10:03 am: wow [TinGull] 10:03 am: see if this 47 can hold it again [soultrader] 10:03 am: guavaman... when u sign in make sure the box "remember me" is checked. it might help you from being signed off [guavaman] 10:03 am: will do [JayRemy] 10:06 am: test [feb2865] 10:07 am: guys I will love to stay but I have to hit the road...good luck today and whatchout looks like a spiky Friday [soultrader] 10:07 am: long ym 41 [MrPaul] 10:07 am: alright feb take it easy [soultrader] 10:07 am: have a nice weekend raul [JayRemy] 10:07 am: seeya feb [TinGull] 10:08 am: Covered at 37 for a whopping +10 [TinGull] 10:08 am: later raul [soultrader] 10:08 am: omg u shorted that? [soultrader] 10:08 am: thats major balls [guavaman] 10:08 am: catch u on the flip side feb [feb2865] 10:08 am: bye [soultrader] 10:08 am: later [TinGull] 10:08 am: at 47 [namstrader] 10:08 am: bye feb [Trading Room]: feb2865 has left at 10:08 am [TinGull] 10:08 am: I was short like 20 minutes ago [soultrader] 10:09 am: i thought u shorted the rally [TinGull] 10:09 am: missed me target by 2 ticks before, and figured I'd get out with something to pay for lunch [JayRemy] 10:09 am: i dont know if i need coffe or a double vodka !!! [TinGull] 10:09 am: oh, not that last rally [soultrader] 10:10 am: crap im gonna get stopped out [TinGull] 10:10 am: oh....awesome. if we hit 28 I'll flip. HAHAHA [JayRemy] 10:10 am: 29 my stop [namstrader] 10:10 am: double shotgun for me last few days [soultrader] 10:11 am: flat [TinGull] 10:11 am: sweet [TinGull] 10:11 am: look at that [TinGull] 10:11 am: daggonnit. oh well [soultrader] 10:11 am: short 28 [soultrader] 10:11 am: freakin chasing now [soultrader] 10:12 am: break of low [soultrader] 10:12 am: with tick hook to negative [namstrader] 10:13 am: that was nice to see Trading Room]: Soultrader has entered at 10:18 am [Trading Room]: gomes has left at 10:18 am [Trading Room]: gomes has entered at 10:18 am [soultrader] 10:19 am: flat [JayRemy] 10:19 am: flat broke ! (just kidding ) [namstrader] 10:19 am: lol [soultrader] 10:20 am: thought they might take it to the 15 level... [soultrader] 10:20 am: might reenter [JayRemy] 10:21 am: 15 yesterday low? [soultrader] 10:21 am: yea [namstrader] 10:21 am: yest low seems like more likely [namstrader] 10:22 am: yesterday soul i was looking at how prices seem to hit the low or high and sometimes both each session [soultrader] 10:23 am: price usually likes testing those areas [soultrader] 10:23 am: if it breaks watch out [soultrader] 10:23 am: gonna watch this ym to see if it wants to bounce at 15 or break [Trading Room]: gomes has left at 10:24 am [Trading Room]: gomes has entered at 10:24 am [guavaman] 10:24 am: [soultrader] 10:25 am: argg youre blinding me [soultrader] 10:25 am: gauvaman i think it was my server this time [soultrader] 10:27 am: alrite watch 15 level guys.. should be interesting if we get there [JayRemy] 10:27 am: price is very slow getting anywhere [namstrader] 10:28 am: yes [TinGull] 10:28 am: the dow is charging to its lows from yesterday [soultrader] 10:29 am: 15 is the low and right at the trendline on the daily [soultrader] 10:29 am: will be key [JayRemy] 10:29 am: high volume too [TinGull] 10:30 am: lots of buying [namstrader] 10:30 am: entry 17 [soultrader] 10:30 am: long 17 [namstrader] 10:30 am: long [soultrader] 10:31 am: if i get stopped im reversing [JayRemy] 10:31 am: where ur stop [TinGull] 10:31 am: your stop at 28? [soultrader] 10:31 am: 07 [soultrader] 10:31 am: gonna watch 00 though [TinGull] 10:31 am: oh [soultrader] 10:32 am: tin im long [TinGull] 10:32 am: sorry...thats where I'm looking to short at 28 [TinGull] 10:32 am: was confused [Trading Room]: JayRemy has left at 10:37 am [Trading Room]: JayRemy has entered at 10:37 am

Heres a short video on one simple trade. I took a long at the test of the previous days low clustered up with the weekly pivot. In the video I point out one exit target. CLICK HERE TO VIEW VIDEO Charts created by Tradestation Presented by Traders Laboratory

Sounds good Torero. If you would like to see any additions to the forum, please let me know. Always looking for improvement on the site.

Ill make sure to save it Torero. See you there.

If more people are interested in discussing different brokers, I might have a new forum just for it. Just concerned that people will come in here just to hype brokers up. (silent spamming)

Here's a little funny clip from Forex Trading Signals, Forex Risk Management, Hedging, Currency Forecasts, Dollar Indian Rupee Forecast - Kshitij Consultancy Services. Enjoy http://www.kshitij.com/jokes/tao.shtml

Thanks Raul... still very feverish but feeling somewhat better. I havent been this sick in years. I dont use any type of momentum indicator and would like to ask if the flow of the tape is enough to judge momentum? Let's say the breakout occured to the downside with enough 10+ lots (for YM) on the bid, would this be enough momentum to confirm this breakout strategy? I like to watch for size and the flow on the tape. Usually if the tape is rolling fast, this indicates a potential move in either direction. As the tape slows down, price tends to become choppy and I look to exit (if im in a position) or remain flat.

.... you are killing it Raul! Amazing.....

Thank you Antonio. Your MP knowledge base is amazing. Time for me to reread Mind Over Markets.

Thank you very much Raul. Very kind of you to share it with us. I have a question for you. Do you take the 15minute bar from 9:15 to 9:30 am? Or is this a strategy based on the opening 15minute breakout? I ran a quick backtest (need to do more) and found this very effective (9:15 to 9:30 bar) but a very fast trade good for 10 points most of the time. At times the markets do indeed take off in the direction of the breakout but can be very hard to capture the move since I would look for a quick 10 points. Will need to run some more backtests... thanks though

ahh okay Raul. My misunderstanding. Keep it coming Raul

Great explanation ant. Several thoughts.... Dalton mentioned a "P" profile usually forms after a downtrend. Basically a P profile occurs in an uptrend but is followed from a downtrend. (had to hit the books pg. 259) He further mentions old business have finished short covering and new business is not entering the market due to high prices. Hence he refers to it as a "poor buyer continuation." The one thing I dont understand is a P formation that develops with lower value placement. Aren't P formation valid only when they develop with higher value placement than the previous day? (I just took a look at my charts and noticed the YM no longer has a P formation. But still an interesting question)

Hey Tin, From my understanding a P profile is only valid following a downtrend. We are forming lower value placement today. So Im not sure what this means... will need to ask ant for this.

Here's some updates. On 11/06 and 11/07 we had a nice rally of over 200 points. We recovered the 6-7 days of decline in only 2 days. Pretty impressive. Are we seeing short covering? Or did the bulls step in to support the bigger trend? On 11/06 and 11/07 we had a P profile on a Market Profile chart. This definitely alerted me of a possible short covering. Should be interesting to see what the market does today. Premarket action has dropped prices below value creating a nice little gap. I would be cautious fading this gap though.... Good luck and best of trading.

Im pretty convinced the past two days were short covering. Price is gapping down below value today and yesterday we saw rejection above 12200 on the YM. Im definitely being cautious today. Should be very interesting.

Wow... very interesting story Raul. Japan probably has one of the most US military bases in the far east Asia. The island of Okinawa alone contains hundreds of US military bases and Tokyo I believe has 3 major ones. I used to play basketball in high school and our league consisted of US base schools and International American schools. Well I must admit... japanese girls can be very attractive Do you have any plans on reuniting with your brother? If he's half American/half Japanese I am sure you can narrow your search down significantly. Ill be more than happy to help in any way possible.

Hi Raul, I have a few questions. You mentioned at the seminar you would play the breakouts of the high or low of the previous day. How come you exclude the candlestick wicks? Im having some trouble understanding why your entry was at 0.7702. Thanks

Thank you for this Raul.

As you may know I rely on the tape heavily. Entering at a key level without any confirmation is definitely a rare case. But I tend to place great important in certain key levels and I would try to enter once price reaches it. Not usually a limit order before price gets there since in most occassions the markets give you time to enter. But I would enter as price tests it and then a few ticks below the test. I dont do this for pivots for MP levels but major support and resistance points on the daily charts. I feel confident at these levels because I expect the longer-time frame participants to be looking at the same level and will step in. Usually more right than wrong.

Hi SandyG, I rely on tape heavily at key price levels. Its my own edge I have.... I use other market internal tools to give me a heads up but the final decision is always made based on tape. Soultrader

Hey JayRemy, I would have to review the video again... but just so you know Im not much of a pattern based trader. It is my own personal belief that most chart patterns dont work and better of playing pattern failures. Patterns are initially designed for dailly charts and above... and I dont like to rely on them at all for intraday trading. Soultrader

Anytime youre in Tokyo Raul... I'll make sure you have a great time

Hi phil895, Not many options traders here. Maybe you can teach us options? Alot of intraday traders in the forum so hopefully you'll find some interesting information here. Thanks James

yes. I am looking at it very carefully. Im thinking a possible short covering and a further decline. Will keep you posted.