Flojomojo

GJ...it was really quick and dirty only deserving a place in the gossip corner! I used this guys toolbox. It gave me a relationship between the range of 15 minute EUR/USD bars and the corresponding tick volume for the bars. No futures, just plain data that I recorded. Flojo

I did a very quick and incredibly dirty granger causality test and the only hint I found was that tick volume is granger causal to the range of a bar. (am not persuing this further for now) Nevertheless I got a bit sceptical about the Granger method as it essentially only checks if lagged values of a variable help forecast another. Also the method gets a lot more complicated if regressions are not linear.

I did quite some reading myself and you are right that threads are contradicting. But so far I have not found a single post that actually threw in a well worked out study about this topic...which essentially leaves it as just plain gossip! Snackly, watch out that you don't only process information that your mind wants to see.

Watch out, exponential in something else. Arithmetic stands for + a factor. Geometric stands for * a factor. So your profits decline a lot faster than your risk decreases. Check out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_progression http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arithmetic_progression

whoops...the top of that last box on the 15MinChart should be at 1.4320ish

Pre-week-homework on 7th September 080907-080912_Charts.pdf

Here's my EUR/USD analysis from last week (080831-080905) in the same style as the other ones. So a daily chart preassessment from 31.08 followed by the week as 15min chart. I'll be posting my pre-week homework for this week shortly. 080831-080905_Charts.pdf 080831-080905_Charts.zip

Attached is the next week of my series: 20-25th Jan 2008 080120-080125_Charts.pdf 080120-080125_Charts.zip

Hi snackly, wrb=wide range bar LWL=last week low

@Firewalker: Which Wyckoff ideas do you incorporate in your trading?

Here are my annotations from the second week of january (13th to 18th). This time I've also included the data of the previous week + a chart showing the most important ranges (DBs cajas famosas). These are then shown on the weekly chart as grey boxes next to price on the y-axis. Feel free to comment and/or make your own analysis with the data. Cheers, Flojo 080113-080118_Charts.zip

sorry...the pdf is missing one page...here's the correct version http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7723&stc=1&d=1357776561 071230-080104_Charts.pdf

My first try can be found here in post #55. I’ll also be annotating EUR/USD charts from the start of this year for study purposes. I’d be glad to see people join in the practicing and hope some of the Wyckoff pros throw in their wisdom and corrections as well. For the hindsight analysis I will always be posting: - a pdf file with two annotated charts: (1) daily chart at the beginning of the week (2) 15 minute chart of the weeks action - an Excel file containing: (i) a ‘raw’ version of the daily and 15 min charts for your annotation convenience (ii) my annotated versions of the daily and 15 min charts (iii) the data for the graphs So here we go with the first week of 08. 071230-080104_Charts.pdf 071230-080104_Charts.zip

In this thread I’d like to discuss how Wyckoff ideas can be applied to Forex. As this should not become another VSA thread it should focus on how to judge the market by its price action alone. For your convenience the most important Wyckoff terms can be found here.

Sorry for any confusion...last word should be obviously 'supply'

Here's the excel file for the 15min data with the original and blank sheets. Week15MinDaten.zip

Hi everyone, My post would be better suited for the closed ‘Riding the Wyckoff Wave’ thread as this is not really a question, but I’m still very interested in your opinions! I’m practicing to read price action and its resulting movie of the tug of war between supply and demand. I’d be glad to get some feedback to my story and what I should improve. I’m using a daily chart to determine the big picture and a 15min chart for the intraday move. The 15min chart is a bit crowded when displaying the entire week, to view it properly you can download and magnify it as you please. I’ve also attached the ‘raw’ versions in case you want to add some insight on a clean sheet. The Forest on 24.08: Looking at the daily chart the following activity in the recent past can be noted: After the severe drop in the EUR, price finds its first halt in the upper region of the Oct-Feb trading range. Demand is yet still not enough to reverse the clear downward trend and falls down to the middle of the past trading range. There the first serious buying interest sets in which is enough to bring price back up to the point where the first demand showed up, but gets clearly rejected towards the end of the week. By this quick look, I would still assume that there is still supply in the market and there is more down movement to watch out for. The important levels on a macro basis are for the week: 1.4800 = close of the week 1.4900 = rejection level / previous upper range 1.4650 = potential support / middle of past range 1.4400 = potential support / bottom of past range The trees 24-29.08: The week starts at the same level as previous weeks close. After drifting sideways a few bars sellers step onto the plate at point 1 and test for supply at the 780 level. When demand steps in to pull the price back up again, it is unable to push price back to the initial high => more supply is entering. As prices drift lower again demand retreats (or is overwhelmed…not possible to tell since no volume figures). As price falls the first signal of demand entering again occurs at point 2 where price is rapidly driven back up to the open. Is this going to be a V-bottom? The next bars reveal that although buyers clearly have interest at this level, supply is still there. Minor buying waves push price higher but have a hard time as the red candles indicate. A couple of hours later the seems to be no demand but still selling interest at 740. Price slowly creeps up to that level in the last swing only to encounter another wave of supply. Price breaks again but obviously has a tough time breaking the low set at 2 where the first demand showed up. Sellers push down price to 700 making a new low (This is the time we can draw trendline T1) but this time again demand overwhelms demand. Can supply still overcome demand here? As the first green candle appears we can look back at the price behavior at 2. There demand seemed to have stepped in hard, not really sure whether supply is done yet. At 3 though supply slows down resulting in narrow candles => supply dries up or demand sucks it all up / big effort, no result. Price is struggling at the 720 level and supply is unable to push price lower again, but demand is able to produce larger and larger candles, also breaking T1 which just got established. This time flow seems to swap to the demand side. Price rises back up to 750 and experiences a quick drive down again. This has the taste to it as if the most scared buyers liquidate their positions in fear that there is again substantial supply entering at 720. There is enough demand though to push prices higher. We can now draw a new trendline T2 through the lows. This time price follows the trendline and breaks through the weeks open price. Note here though that as price rises, it encounters repeatedly small supply waves and seems to have a tougher time rising than previously falling. In the region around 800 supply steps in again. Buyers push but repeatedly encounter supply. When the trendline is broken there is still demand entering at the high of a previous minor swing, but this time when price reaches the 800 level, it is unable to make a higher high before being overwhelmed by supply again. From here its down again. At 5 price halts in the middle of the last major swing outlined by points 3 and 4. Note that the fall in price from 4 to 5 was again a lot smoother than the previous rise, indicating that shorts are still the way to go. Price now catches some breath but 760 holds for the minor swings. Now the carpet is pulled away again and price revisits the area of the previous low. Now we can draw T3. Traders are scared that demand could be entering again and some start to cover their shorts again resulting in a small rally. The bar size indicates little buying pressure though…this might be partly due to the fact that this action happened in the Asian session. Nevertheless price hesitates at 720 and there is its down from here again. Note now that the two previous drops are both around 40pointish before encountering the next demand wave. This though price drops less and candles become more erratic. News is coming up at 10am, so this is rather normal. Hungry sharks now step in and push up prices in order to check whether that last drop overnight was for real. It was and as the number that came out was even in favor of the supply side, price falls hard as all short term market participants all rush to the trend side. Price slowly drifts lower. Now price has covered already quite a distance and one should watch out because that last drop might have been unnecessarily big. As demand starts to enter from 600 onwards it is able to pull price around at 580 and form a V bottom, indicating that the last drop was not substantiated. At 7 supply enters again only to meet demand again at the 620 level. Now things calm down for traders to take a breath and a hinge is formed…at the 650 level previously identified as potential support. From here price breaks and makes anew high which lets us draw T4. The following action is rather erratic 620 shows to be resistance which coincides with the highest high of the hinge. At 8 price is unable to reach the open of the week indicating that supply enters again.T4 is then broken and price travels down again to previous support where demand takes over again. The spiky tops and bottoms are an indication that the market has now switched from ‘trend’ to ‘range’ mode. At 9 price hits resistance again and reverses, but this time it is able to revisit the 800 level. As price makes a new high T5 can be drawn. After initial rejection at 800 price behavior gets rather violent again with lots of pulling between supply and demand. Not here now that after 800 is reached for the first time one could draw a two supply lines…one from the swing high of 7 through to the high of 8 and the other from the high of 8 to the high at 10. The decreasing angle of the supply line and the repositioning of the trendline from T4 to T5 suggest a decrease in buying pressure. When at 10 price revisits the region above 800 selling steps in once more and this time there is no demand stepping in at the 760 level…down we go again! Previous support at 680 proves itself once more, but this time there is no V-bottom forming, indicating that this time ‘good selling’ came in. Demand is though able to push price back higher again. At 60 though, price fins resistance again, unable to make a higher high than 10 or even 8. Price ultimately drifts lower and takes out the previous swing low, giving us the opportunity to draw T6. In the end at 11 price again finds support at the 650 level and slowly drifts upwards as traders cover their short positions and get into the mood for the weekend. The Forest on 29.08: Initial downtrend got rejected but was able to make a new low. As seen on the 15min chart, the tug of war at 1.4800 was ultimately won by the supply side. For next week, look for shorts again. If you read this line I thank you for your interest in all of the above and would be glad to hear what you think about it! I definitely still need to train my brain to read more with the Wyckoffian definitions like test/mark up/etc in mind. I'm planning to do this practice for the entire past year, do you see added value in me posting them here? Have a great week, Flojomojo

thats so true...been there too...but imo it is definitely worth a look!

Check out the Wyckoff forum over here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/ In the 'resources' section you'll find some of the clues You are looking for. DBPhoenix also wrote a great eBook which I highly recommend. I hope this gets you started.

as there have been already some answers by the Pros, I want to add in a bit of my moonshooting. How do you find balancing your life? This is one of the points that was pretty hard for me too! Before I got into the whole trading thing I was socially very active and most my activities had to do with people in some sort of way. The solitude of learning to trade really hit me hard. As I'm pretty much a workaholic I knew I had to mix in interaction with people somehow! Thats why I moved into a shared flat with four people who each of them do something completely different. The evening chats and occasional beers keep my daily life balanced now. It gives me fresh energy to talk to people with no clue of what I'm trying to accomplish. I also do sports to clear my mind three times a week. I also reboot from time to time by giving myself a spontaneous reward. Yesterday for eg. I just booked a flight to Spain because it was just so darn cheap. Some days off in a different environment definitely help me balance out! What are you finding most difficult? I find the "sit and wait" attitude very challenging. I used to multitask and work parallel on whatever came to my mind. Trading is totally different to my working nature! My mind tends to start to look for opportunities neglecting the "trade what you see not what you think"-principle. When I catch myself in the attempt to do something just for the sake of doing something I do some pushups...since I am forced to do a lot of them, they at least keep me in shape and help me refocus! How many hours are you putting in every day? I'd say "slave to the screen" is still the appropriate term. Like darthtrader I've also tried to build a smart market model in matlab...which turned out to be my personal quest for the holy grail! My thinking slowly shifted from complicated formulas to an indicator free reading-the-market approach and I don't know whether I would have come here without the hours and hours I put into my grail quest.

All charting packages I know of provide the historical price behavior as well as indicator behavior. I've attached a random example of a past chart with some indicators...beware...your chart should never look this way! Your platform might limit you from going back far in time, this depends on the timeframe you are interested in. Don't expect your charting package to plot you 1 Minute bars for the past 10 years.

Actually they definitely all display historical data bar by bar...otherwise what should they show on the screen other than the past. Maybe you could formulate your question a bit more specific. As far as I know eSignal has a built in feature where you can replay a days action. Otherwise you can simply "scroll" foreward bar by bar from the past to the present in every charting package. What you can also do is the classic way: Print out a chart history, cover the bars with a piece of thick paper and slide the paper to the right, foreward in time, revealing bar after bar. Hope this helps a bit and have a good start.

Hi Aaron, If I met him, I'd be interested in how he sees his job changing with the increase in electronic trading. Also what does he think is a pit traders edge is in this changing market structure? Have a great time in Chicago!

I agree with you on this one. The point I tried to bring across is that if we are talking about 'teaching basics' I was always better off with the type described by me above. For the special insight into some topic you'd better know the nuts and bolts. Especially when the genius is a bad teacher you need to understand what he's talking about in the first place to be able to feed on his genius thinking. True! If I stay the whole day at a trading mentors place and don't get money from him for looking over his shoulder, I still have to pay my rent, breakfast, dinner...and even lunch as well. The financial burden I commit to myself in this case definitely grabs my attention! If I had a regular job and would want to learn EOD trading I would/could pay for it.

As I'm fairly new to the entire game I was at a point once where I asked myself exactly the question of "How much would I pay someone to teach me trading?" I think the question pops up naturally in the back of every beginning traders mind as he surfs around the net and gets bombarded with "Double your account with my wisdom for only $99 per year!" offers. I took some time to think and came to the following conclusion: All my life, from school through university the people that taught me the most were - absolutely passionate about their subjects - knew a lot more about their subjects than they actually needed to teach - were great people in the first place, teachers in the second - were doing it because they felt that they were made to teach - would teach for no money as long as they have enough to live Therefore I would say: If you are not inclined to share your thoughts in the first place, no $$$ amount will make you a good teacher. (Unfortunately this kind of teachers also hung out at my school...) If you are inclined to share your thoughts, you most probably don't take anything at all. (Fortunately quite a few of this type seem to be member in this Forum ...professionals and amateurs alike)