Head2k

I will do the DAX short entry. I've added a few annotations. Since 8:00 until 8:30 we see a healthy rise, volume and price move together. Shortly after 8:30 comes the first warning when price hugs demand line instead of bouncing off it. Then supply comes in on the bar you marked with the vertical line, at 8:34. Price then falls below the last swing low. But selling pressure does not have serious follow-through, as one can see on decrease in volume. Hence the first attempt to lift comes at 8:38. On the next bar price if forced down again, makes a new low but fails to hold it. And this is happening on very high volume. This could be a selling climax or not, I guess it would be better to wait. The next couple of bars volume decreases, price congests, spread narrows. Hard to tell what to expect. Then we try higher but the effort is poor and price falls back. I also added a horizontal line to show where this test finds resistance. Maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to short here. But then, on the down side the pressure is even lesser, support is found higher and price quickly shoots upwards. Maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to reverse. And finally price is quickly rejected, volume quite low showing that buyers weren't trying particularly hard. Time to reverse again? I guess this scenario could easily happen to me. And it is even likely that the second time I should reverse I would just exit frustrated, only to miss the best opportunity. Maybe the first short I described is a bit premature, but the long IMHO isn't. Somebody wants to argue?

Shorting the downtrend exercise: The first dot (early Jul) We broke out of the Jun congestion but failed to make any substantial progress. Instead we congest again and volume remains high. A continuous distribution? The day before the dot we close at high, above the three previous days. Are we going to break out tomorrow? Well, maybe buyers wanted to take price higher but sellers were prepared. Such a tiny spread gives a hint about a huge supply cap ready to satisfy all buyers. And such a tiny spread also allows a tiny stop. Pretty aggressive entry but not much to lose. The second dot (mid Jul) Gapped up but failed to break out. But lower ground rejected too, we hold high. Next day shows indecision: tiny spread, lower volume, doji. A springboard? I could enter a breakout in either direction and maintain a tight stop. The third dot (mid Jul) I don't like this one. Volume is stunning, showing very clear rejection of higher prices. But we find support in June congestion and close is well off the lows. The previous entry at least provided nice price so one can wait for this to solve with stop at BE, but entering on this day is much more risky. The fourth dot (early Aug) After the buying climax in July we went quite a long way down. Volume kept decreasing and since sellers are lifting their pressure one can expect an upside test. In the end of July buyers take over and push price higher on nice volume. The day after that they have a break and it's sellers's turn. But buyers come back with new force the day after. But here, as we approach June congestion, the supply presents itself, returning price deep to close near low. Maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to short a breakdown under today's low. The fifth and sixth dot (mid and late Aug) A potential buying climax at former support. Since we close at high, an aggressive entry could be a breakdown under this day's low. But with these aggressive entries one must be prepared for a test. And it comes a couple of days later. The reaction prior to test is nice, reverting rather on low volume than on new demand coming in. Then on the test rally volume increases slightly but on the last but one day in August the result becomes obvious. Time to sell. The seventh dot (Sep) Maybe we saw a selling climax, maybe not. One should be careful with shorts now. But look what price does now. The third day of congestion it looks like we might have completed a succesful test of resistance. If one decides to enter at a breakdown under the M low the entry won't be filled in the next two days. Instead he will experience price congesting under former support. Volume is decreasing. Looks like a springboard. Price could go in either direction and the move could be quite fast. The eighth dot (early Nov) Rally stopping at former support, price bounces off and then buyers try again. Yet another failure. One could sell this weakness. However the last four days ending with the dot form quite a rectangular congestion so the situation doesn't seem so clear to me. I am also reluctant to call this a potential springboard since it takes place so close to support. The last dot This also doesn't seem much clear, I can see a similar characteristics as in case of the previous dot.

I think I need to re-read your threads and book. Now when I have somewhat better understanding of what's going on I am sure I will discover loads of new wisdom which remained hidden to me during my first reading. Now the exercise (shorting the uptrend). The 1st dot (Oct) Because of lack of history I don't know where is this potential reversal taking place, but volume suggests that 50+- is a significant level. The first warning comes on the second day in the red rectangle. A sharp rise in volume and result almost doji. It could be a climax, lets see what happens next. The next day price opens higher but sellers come in big time, as if price above 50 was a trigger to throw everything off board. Now I could wait for a test to enter. But what happens the next day? Price rises on volume comparably low to yesterday, makes a higher high and holds it. This doesn't look like a successful test. This looks like the sellers are done and buyers keep pushing. Maybe we are going to go higher. Then bang! Another battle. Narrow spread, volume same as the day before yesterday, closing back below 50. What does this mean? Are the sellers back? It looks like that. However, this action is not clear enough for me to act. The only entry I can think of is breakout of this day's low, or selling close if we close below that low. The rationale behind it could be that since the narrow spread day represents a battle with not so much clear result I would let the next day decide, or to provide the result. The next day is takes price lower, on lower volume, but the result is unclear again - a doji. What the heck is going on here? Now when I've sold could we just go down, please? The next day we open higher and close near lows, but all this is happening within the previous day's range. Volume is very low. Hard to interpret. If we go higher on low volume tomorrow, this might be a successful test. If we go lower it might mean that buyers finally gave up and withdrew their support. The next day provides a clear answer and proves the short trade wrong. The second dot (beginning of November) The fourth day in November we see a very narrow spread, suggesting some difficulties. Then there comes a sell-off. But buyers provide some resistance against this selling pressure, as one can see at close. The next day the situation repeats itself on a smaller scale. Lets se what happens next. We open lower and buyers try to take over. But volume is low and price fails to get above yesterday's close. This shows clear reluctancy of buyers. Now if we drop below today's low tomorrow (fiishing a successful test) I will sell. The third dot (end of Nov) We break 56 on decent volume but then we open lower, try ro make a higher high but we fail to hold it. Volume is quite high during this rejection, buyers met resistance. The next day the buying pressure is not renewed and price stalls on low volume. Who will take over now? he next day we open higher but then we fall. Volume is slightly higher but not high. It doesn't cost much effort to drive price lower. This might be the test I am looking for. If it breaks today's low tomorrow then I am in. After all, all this is an attempt to take out the early Nov highs and look what the effort is compared to those times. This is definitely going to fail. The fourth dot (early Dec) We found support at Oct highs but we fail to bounce for several days. Doesn't look like buyers are particularly determined. Ok, now we broke up but price was quickly rejected - we lost half of the gain the next day. And look where it found resistance: in the early Nov congestion. The breakout was on low volume but on the retracement it vas even lower. Well, if it is only retracement and the low volume shows lack of interest to the down side, it should continue up now. If price breaks today's low instead it may mean that it's the upside we are not interested in. So lets sell a breakout of today's low, if it occurs. The fifth dot (late Dec) Nice volume on the breakout through Dec highs. But where is the follow-through? We need to continue pressing if we want to break Nov highs, guys! But volume decreases and we see doji. This looks like buyers are somwhat reluctant. Lets wait for tomorrow to see whether they were jus having break or what. Now look, volume is gone and price heads lower, buyers are definitely not interested at all. Time to sell. The sixth dot (early Jan) The last day in Dec sellers showed some serious pressure. But buyers opposed very well. Lets see how this develops. Nice, we gap up and advance without serious difficulties. But what happens then? Are we getting finaly sober after the New Year party? Looks like the enthusiasm is gone. Then the next day we see reluctancy. Now this might be just a pullback or it might be the top. I will go with the side which will take over tomorrow. The seventh dot (late Jan) We bounced off 50.5 support but now we are having troubles in the midpoint of the range. If we fail to break through the midpoint it is definitely a bearish sign and I might even anticipate a breakdown. Look at volume, there is no interest in the midpoint, the fair value. Nobody is considering this value fair any more, we are done with this range. The first of Feb volume comes in! Lets quickly sell and ride the breakdown before it's gone without me. The eighth dot (mid Mar) Price seems to stall after a long rise. Are we just having a break or are serious problems to come? Now this indeed looks serious! Highest volume on the chart so far! But the result is not quite clear. The next day we go higher on low vol. Are sellers done or is this a test? The next day we open near yesterday's lows and fail to go higher. This suggests buyers failed. If we break through yesterday's low I will consider this action a successful test and I will sell. The ninth dot (Late Mar) We maybe saw a climax in the middle of March. But price then found a serious support at 59. Lets see how it will behave at the preliminary resistance outlined by the potential climax. Where is the effort? Price fails to get above 64 and the next day it falls, all on low volume. No interest hi higher ground, we just saw a test. If it breaks today's low I am short. The last dot The two bars above the dot: Price above 71 is quickly rejected and the next day volume is gone and we fail to make any progress. The next day price gaps down and closes near low, on quite low volume. That means buyers are done and support is gone. Lets quickly sell before it drops to 20!

Spending time in chat room is of great help for me. Yesterday I was studying NQ over the last three days and particularly Friday and I defined a different type of entry than I was focused on up to now. Or, as entries are not much of an issue, I defined a change in dynamics which I began to see a few days ago. Seeing this dynamics allows me to take advantage of a move earlier. However, my main problem remains scale (some might call it time-frame or fractality). This very much relates to the question of if and how to enter in the opposite direction. Its merely my inability to distinguish important from unimportant, or to watch detail in context. Price moves in waves. One can observe changes in dynamics of buying and selling pressure on all wave sizes. The tinier the setup is the better price it usually provides. But it also provides the least confirmation. If I enter on tiny wave then a bigger wave can easily have a different oucome. Entering into long trades in your exercise is an example of going with the tiny waves only to get washed out by a bigger ones. Being able to find the right spot to enter means being able to notice THE change in dynamics. And to be aware of scale. Entering on those first couple of dots in the downtrend would mean failure to take scale in account, IMHO. How can a buyer think that a congestion zone formed during a couple of days can store enough energy to drive price through a congestion zone built over 2 months? However logical this seems to me in hidsight I merely fail to make these observations in real time. I find myself caught in a fast chart where every swing seems so important... It is a problem of my perception and information processing. But I guess one can largely avoid these problems when he predetermines his levels or zones of interest. This way one predetrmines importance and even observing the waves gets easier because they can be related to some more or less solid point in space.

Now I see how I could buy the second dot in downtrend (Middle of August) We break through 70 on higher volume but the next two days there is only little follow-trough. Volume decreases and so does price progress. The next day buyers take over. Nice volume, closing at highs just below 70. Next is doji, volume decreasing. I would wait. The next day we try lower gound and look - sellers don't push. Low volume and we close at highs, back in the congestion. There is no interest in lower prices. I could buy close or a breakout above high of the test bar. Now lets see the next dot (End of August) The breakout above 70 met a solid resistance. High volume, narrow spread, but closes at high. Not clear result yet. The next day the result becomes obvious. But then the selling pressure is gone. And where does it happen? Just in midpoint of previous congestion. Is this just a low volume pullback or is it a successful test? The next day is a doji with high at 70. Now if this was only a pullback on the way down price should turn right now, shouldn't it? If it gets above 70 again I will consider it a successful test and I will buy it. I think I wouldn't buy the dot in September because it is too quick. No test and price quickly rises to infavorable levels. Now the last dot, in October Price makes lower lows but volume decreases significantly. It looks like we are running out of fuel. Now we gapped below 40. Didn't fill the gap but closed at high. The next day we opened at low, tried up again but failed. Doesn't look good. But see what's next! Opened higher, tested lower ground and closed at highs on the lowest volume on this chart so far! Doesn't it mean that there is no interest in lower prices? Lets buy close.

I think I understand what you mean when you say you wanted to be nearer to an exit.As for the instincts part... I wish it were instincts. In this case it is hindsight reasoning and in real time I need to learn it on continuous basis. As for looking for entries, I have two objectives: a very tight stop and exactly what you say - I want to know whether I am right or wrong very quickly. I have low risk tolerance and I am quite impatient, so both is a must

I dont think I wouldnt take at least some of them, at least if I were consistent with my other entries posted earlier. The first dot: During the test on the first day of June I might think that we just finished a test of a congestion area from the second week in May. Maybe there are a few thing that could warn me. 1. Volume decreased, but it still suggested a significant selling interest. 2. Since you drew such a nice trend channel on the chart, I might think that entering here I would want the trend to speed up. Maybe it would be better to wait for a better price. The second dot: Basically the same as the first dot. And The test looks more like a shakeout. Seeing the two prior days I would be suspicious. The third dot: As I wrote in my hindsight analysis, during this period the activity is heavy to the upside, heavy to the downside, heavy everywhere and I wouldnt be probably able to "read" it. Hence I would be probably saved from this entry by my lack of understanding of whats happening. (If I was smart enough to admit it ) The fourth dot: We find support at April highs. We took out several potential supports before, broke demand line, made a lower low. The bounce is not marked by a potential climax, instead we see a soft landing. It is not new demand entering but supply weakening. The entire down move from the top could be viewed as a "technical reaction" and an upside test can be anticipated. The June congestion overhead represents potentially very srtong resistance. Not wise to enter long imho. The fifth dot: Now we can safely assume we are in a downtrend. In the middle of August we find support at March highs and May lows and a supply line is broken. Again a soft landing. When price gaps up and volume kicks it the spread tightens. If this was an attempt to break away it didnt succeed much. Looks like sellers took advantage of higher price to dump their contracts on the market. Seeing where this happens only enforces this view. I dont see much reasons to enter at the support since substantial new demand didnt present itself. And if I entered there then the next day should warn me to tighten my stop. The sixth dot: After the day with the highest volume and narrow spread the next day is a sell-off. Then price stalls on low volume. Are sellers done? Maybe, for now. But the activity prior to this "test" is not of that kind I would like to see. If the preceding rally reversed on low activity, I might consider entry. But given the aggressive sell-off I would wait for more confirmation to enter long. And I wouldnt get it, because what we see next is a successful test of resistance. The seventh dot: This looks more promising. Sharp decline finding support at the midpoint of the "blue box", demand coming in. I would probably enter if I had where to do so. However, before any test occurs price takes off. If I shoud view this as a technical rally I would like to see price reversing on lack of demand. Then I could wait for a test to enter. But what happens here? Volume remais high and then price stops under a potential resistance and fails to bounce back. Instead it congests and volume is drying up. Now it can breaks in either direction. Buyers might eat the resistance or give up. The latter is the case. The next two days volume is clearly on the down side, suggesting that this is not a test I would like to see. The last dot: Since half of October volume gets to its usual levels. The period of hystery is over. Hard to say where we find support since we dont have enough history here. Anyway, a soft landing here, hard to say if it will develop to reversal or correction. Trend line safe, the only line that would get broken is an aggressive supply line launched from September highs. Given the fact that we havent seen a substantial correction since then, I dont know what should tell me that I should expect a trend reversal right here.

Reading atto's post I realize I was right when I wrote I should pay more attention to the action preceding the test. I seem to focus too much on the test itself but atto takes in consideration what happened at the top of previous rally, how far it was, whether the area of potential support was tested before, etc. So I will at least finsh the entries that atto left out. Starting with early Feb. After the last test price rose only to find resistance in midpoint on quite strong vol. However, when it approaches the potential support volume decreases, suggesting that the selling pressure is weakening. I guess I might enter at the close of the day making the swing low, as it closes at its high. Stop would be under the lows of this bar. As of my current state of development I probably wouldnt have the balls to enter there. Instead I would enter at a breakout of 55.5, after a low volume test of midpoint of the entire range. I would place my stop under the lows and anticipate an upside breakout. Mid March Thats a W with the second trough being a low volume test. Possible entry at close of the test bar, stop under its low. March / April Same as the previous setup. This time this whole setup occurs as a second trough of W on a larger scale, and volume is lower than when we tested the support the last time. Also, as atto might say, the support is not a virgin any more. These factors might increase probability of success. Mid April A breakout of the upside. I dont like them, because I do not consider this a good price. If I would enter it would be at a rebreak and placed my stop somewhere at 64.5. Beginning of May Too fast for me, no test. I would probably just witness price leaving without me.

The first dot (mid Nov) I see a 3-days W in the red rectangle. 1st day Climax, 2nd day technical rally, 3rd day test. Although close on the climax day is well off the lows I wouldn't try to enter there, I find it too risky. For the sake of excercise, if I entered on that climax, it would be at close and I would place my stop something like half a point under its low. But my preferred entry would be the test. The technical rally looks nice, low volume suggests no serious selling interest. That means sellers don't take advantage of better price to sell heavily. Then the test is exemplary. So my entry would be at close of it. Now I know Wyckoff says to place stop under the climax low, so I would probably do it. But in my casual intraday experience I often have problems with 1. When do I recognize the test to be successful? 2. When I find the test successful, isn't it already too late for entry? Am I entering at a good price, isn't my stop too wide? What are the probabilities that this is THE final test? And if it isn't, how much it will cost me to find out I was wrong (if the next test fails)? I am not experienced enough to compare waves in real time, not paying enough attention to behavior before the test itself. Too eager to enter at a good price, not allowing the test to prove itself, or OTOH, waiting too long for test to prove only to see price departing without me. I guess there are two main reasons of my doubts: Lack of experience in seeing shifts of S/D in real time Lack of systematical testing The dots in Dec As we arrive just above 50 where we can expect potential support price stops without any fireworks. But the attempt to reverse is quickly checked the third day in Dec. Since then price is congesting, slightly condensing and volume is decreasing. It looks like less and less traders are willing to trade at this level and a quick departure can be anticipated. Sort of a springboard forming. In this case I would definitely prefer to look inside the daily candles and find the entry point on a smaller time frame. However, given the daily chart only, I would probably enter at a breakout of high of the bar right below the dot and I would place my stop below its close, which appears to be in the middle of the congestion area. The second dot marks the same situation, so my entry and stop would be the same, too. Only now we gapped up over my entry so maybe it would be wiser to wait for a test and then enter at a re-break of the given high. Stop below midpoint is fairly aggressive in these cases but I think it is a logical place to put it at. Since I am entering on a springboard I want price to spring away. If it tests the lower half again then I was wrong, or at least my entry was premature. Which in fact is the same. The dot in January This one is problematic. It is a 3-day W, sort of. But in real time I probably wouldn't know if to consider the third bar to be a test or just a continuation of a technical rally (Maybe it would help to drop the time frame). Then another test comes at the bar right after the red rectangle, but that is already too far away from what I would consider a good price. Hence I wouldn't probably enter at all. Now I am going to watch NQ live, and I will finish the exercise later.

Thank you for the excercise. I will just write a short message before I take it. I need to add something regarding your impression and the time it takes to get to the point where I am now. 1. I forgot to mention that I studied MP and auction theory in Spring, though at that times I assumed a wrong attitude towards it (I was looking for a holy grail ). But I think it helps me with my understanding, too. In Summer I studied Trading With Market Statistics threads by jperl here, which made me think of MP and auction theory on more general level. 2. In Summer I left my job because I decided I would become a full time trader. So I do not study charts 1 hour a day before going to sleep. As for now I think I have an entry which suits me. I focus on springboards (though my definition might not be 100% consistent with yours). But it's not been long since I found I can recognize them in real time, so there is still a lot work to do. But I love the tight stop they allow and how quickly they let me know whether I am right or wrong. My exits (apart from initial stop) are tragedy so far Usually can't hold to profitable trade. So far for introduction, I will take your excercise in my next post.

Borg? Maybe my mother didnt tell me Perhaps I easily understand theory and I like learning.Unfortunately that cannot save from doing also the dirty work. As Db pointed out on several occasions, to grasp a concept intellectualy isnt enough. Thank you. The words are indeed all spelled wrongly, but I can understand them Though my English is probably better than your Czech, there is still a lot room for improvement. In fact I have some troubles with terms "accumulation" and "distribution". Since every trade has 2 sides, when buyers are accumulating the sellers are distributing at the same time, and vice versa. It only makes sense to distinguish these two in terms of "focused intent" accompanying them. So during accumulation one can say that stocks (or whatever) are accumulated with focused intent, but distributed chaotically. And vice versa. 1. In the end of April price we saw supply entering the market around 70-71. It could be a start of "distribution". But when price hit 66 (March highs and April congestion) buyers stepped in big time. This reversal is interesting, because it is a very sharp V. When one sees volume accompanying this revesal he could expect some problems or at least furher test(s). Price takes off like a rocket instead. I dont know, maybe "large operators", seeing the extremely bullish mood all around the world, rushed to reach better prices to distribute? And the same scenario repeated a couple of times later. But that are just speculations in hindsight. In real time this V would be too fast for me to react. In fact, during June we maybe witnessed some kind of reaccumulation, that means that while we can see a focused intent accompanying the distribution we can also see some intent to support price on larger scale. While this support could be very well organized by the distributors, we can notice that volume is decreasing (but remains high) during june and price is still holding. And the last dip below 80 in June is in fact a successful test, though volume is rather average than small, marking that sellers are still interested. When I notice that the two prior days showed lessening activity and narrowing spread, I could very well assume that we are done at these levels and ready to depart, probably down. But the test would prove me wrong. Instead of continuing with distribution lower (more aggressively) we move higher. But then again, volume remains high and price stalls. Then it reacts and finds support in the previous congetion, still on the same volume. Price is not rising because sellers are not interested, but because there is still too much demand. But price cannot rise substantialy, because there is still too much supply. A difficult situation. And I would probably wait for it to resolve. Then the solution comes in form of that 3 days long sell-off.

I suppose it was for me... So I was first interested in trading in February. Until summer I had no idea what to do, tried automated strategies I didnt understand. In summer I started to watch ES and NQ intraday. Now the most important part: I started with strudying Wyckoff in September and became fully devoted to him in October or November.

... When sellers are exhausted and support still holding, price is ready to start its advance. The rally is quickly checked, but the reaction in the middle of December finds support on highs of the last congestion area and no serious selling interest is shown. Therefore price can easily resume its advance. However, supply comes in at the November highs. Not extraordinary but still enough to reverse the price. Buyers seem to be somewhat reluctant. We are possibly looking at a double top or trading range starting to develop. When price reaches December lows in the end of January the activity increases slightly and price bouces off in a much shorter time than in December. That suggests that sellers are not particularly decisive either. On a subsequent rally buyers fail to step in meaningfully and price soon reverses to retest the December lows. The rally found resistance at the midpoint of the last reaction so I would be especially careful about a possible breakdown. Yet support still can be found at the same place and selling pressure doesnt increase much. The last day of reaction price closes at highs, suggesting a completion of a succesful test. Then price shoots up, forms a 3 days long apex in the midpoint of the range and finally heads north. EDIT: When reaching 58, a potential resistance, volume increases but price fails to bounce meaningfully. It starts to build a congestion at the highs, volume remains high as buyers are eating through the supply. It takes them several days. Then the resistace breaks and price starts to advance. However, volume remains high. How long can buyers push through? How long can sellers resist? The second week in March volume drops but price doesnt slow down. It was seller who gave up. However, just before half of March price stalls at 65 for 2 days. Volume is quite low compared to the previous week but average for this one. Partly buyers need to take a break, partly supply coming in. Seeing the next day it seems like sellers were waiting for first opportunity to take over. But we find a serious support at the highs of the Nov-Mar trading range. Again, W with second trough being a successful test. After a breakout of the preliminary resistance this former resistance provides support for a selling climax in the beginning of May. Bump: We see a potential climax in the middle of July, marking a possible peak of the large scale distribution starting in May. It is not a typical climax in a sense that it has not a form of sudden slap into an enthusiastic parabolic buying fenzy. It looks more like a sudden 3 days aggressive sell-off which surprises all the poor buyers who established a position since May. It took 3 days to lock out all buyers from 2 months. No wonder that price just cannot rise more when it approaches to test the lows of this distribution zone again. Those who didnt take the opportunity to sell at this test and believed that price will recover, mostly didnt do the same mistake again, not allowing price to advance in September. And those slowlier took the last chance in October.

Starting with the second chart. In a half of October we see an uptrend running up into increased supply, i.e a potential buying climax. That is marked by a sharp rise in volume together with price slowing its advance and then turning down. However, volume diminishes quickly on a subsequent reaction. That means the selling pressure has no real follow-through. Absent this follow-through price can lift with only little effort and it takes also little effort to overcome a preliminary resistance marked by the highs of the last rally. It seems like the potential climax was caused merely by profit taking, since the sellers are done and they don't represent any meaningful resistance any more. The reaction in November looks more serious. It finds support at lows of a reaction from the end of October. The first day that hits these lows looks like a potential selling climax. Quite high volume and closes off its lows. This gives us a preliminary support, and if we are in long position we should probably tighten our stops somwhere under it. Then we must watch what happens next - are the sellers done or will the selling pressure be renewed tomorrow? In next two days price forms a W with the second trough being a successful test. On the top of subsequent rally we see the same setup, just upside down. It is M with second peak showing a lack of interest in upside direction. That is different from the 2 previous tops where price stopped because heavy supply. This lack of demand results in a reaction making a lower swing low. There is no sharp rebound, price spends several days at the same area instead. Buyers steadily absorb all there is to take. Volume continously decreases during tests of 50 area. ... I will continue later

This is about me, too. I also use one custom coded "indicator" (or, as I prefer to call it, a "visualization tool"). This relates to a question I've been asking myself for quite a long time. Wyckoff is about principles, basic concepts. These principles must be understood by Wyckoff followers, but one cannot trade from principles alone. There are questions such as concrete entry and exit timing. What is your view of supporting tools (beyond Wyckoff methodology) in these areas?

I didn't even notice there are US holidays today until I opened my charting program. Plenty reasons to not trade live yet, in my case

The NQ is forming a nice hinge on larger scale, starting on 11/13. Midpoint around 1132. Now we are at the demand line. I am expecting a bounce back to the midpoint. EDIT: Didn't think we would get there so quickly. Tomorrow will be interesting to watch (sadly I can't after 11 am).

I think it is great that you overcame the first obstacle and you are placing trades in accordance with your plan. That is a great achievement. I can't really help you with the current obstacle, since I am not an experienced trader nor psychologist. Just wanted to congratulate you to your success, that you are getting somewhere. I think you should be proud that you progress, you overcame the first challange and now you need to focus on the second one. Maybe, for the beginning, you could make such a daily goal, without regard to any monetary gains, just to really execute at least your fist trade in a day. And maybe trade just one contract to ease the pressure.

If it is meant to increase the number of so called active members for advertising purposes, I understand it and I can live with that. Being a beginner myself, the benefit I obtain from this forum largely outweighs these minor issues. But for sure there is a question what is more important: if quantity or quality.

There is a loss and there is an investition in your education. It depends on point of view.

I am INTP - Intoverted Intuitive Thinking Percieving When I click the type description by Dr. Keirsey he explains it on an example of architect. Funny because I have a master degree in civil engineering and studied architecture, too. I worked in building planning company for 3 years. Sometimes when I am desperate in my strategy development I think I should have stayed with that job. Now I have another argument for it

As I said in another thread, using VWAP, its associated SDs and skew of daily price/volume distribution is just a way to define trend and to find potential support and resistance areas. If you think of it like this, if you understand it as a tool, you will find you need something more to make an entry. Let me compare it to traditional way of imposing structure on price data. If you use trend lines and horizontal S/R lines, does it mean that if you are in a downtrend and price turns upwards to test a potential resistance level that you sell at that level automatically? Or do you want at least some confirmation to validate your entry? I am a newbie-wanabe-trader, but I guess that one should seek for some kind of compromise - what sort of confirmation can I afford to obtain still a good price, and OTOH what sort of confirmation do I need so I am not sucked into too many losers. And when to move stop to breakeven to protect yourself but also not be shaken out of profitable trades too often? I think your method should be more complex than "sell at that line of other line is below yet another line". Jerry's threads are only the beginning, they serve for the familirisation with this kind of structure and with some implications that it brings. But the profitable method is something you have to make yourself (I am not yet there either). Maybe Jerry has better points to say on this subject...

To answer a question what time frames one should use to find potential S/R prior to open one must first answer a question what moves he is interested in. It is a problem of scale, and for me scale is really a problem which I am solving only slowly. Problem of scale does not regard only S/R, but also trend and therefore also reversals, breakouts and retracements. Once I am in a trade (or about to take a trade) the business gets different. Then I use intervals down to 5 sec to judge where price finds support or resistance. But I am only beginning of my S/R exploration. And by the way, FTB is an action, not a location.

I am a beginner and I don't have my own plan yet, but once I downloaded a template. I believe I found it here on TL, just can't remember the thread. So I am uploading it again, maybe it could help. Trading Plan Template.pdf

As I understood it he is talking about something I would call a compiled system, which is basically a system that includes different signals for different market conditions. Could be understood as a bunch of standalone systems running together. I guess it depends on what one means by "system" - if it is one setup bound with certain criteria, or a whole trading strategy.