Head2k

With DTN IQ Feed (which I use) TICKQ updates approx. every 5 seconds. With data from Interactive Brokers the updates seem to be around 2 or 3 times more frequent than that. DbPhoenix uses IB as a data provider.

Correct, that's what I was suggesting, though I don't do it. But it's something you might play with. Since range of a previous 1 minute bar is somewhat arbitrary, then why not to choose an arbitrary fixed number? If you test it you might find 1.5 or 3 is better. I was not talking about the decision to make an entry, but rather about the entry placement. Though often it is closely related. Instead of the last 1 minute bar break you could use a break of some micro congestion or W visible on a tick chart or 5s chart or even 15s chart. To show what I mean I'm attaching 2 charts displaying the number 1 and 2 reversals from your post. But again, that doesn't mean I do it like this or that you should do it. I'm just showing another options which you have and which you can test.

Just a few remarks: Since TICKQ moves continuosly and by plotting it as a line you plot its snapshots with frequency of bar interval, you might be missing some information when using this display with larger bar interval charts. So you might want to either lower your bar interval or plot the TICKQ as bars. You acknowledge that price moves continuously and not in bars, but you use a break of a bar to get you in a trade. Why so? You could as well use a fixed amount, say 2 points in your direction, to trigger your entry. Or you could enter on a break of some micro congestion visible on 5 sec or tick chart.

Nobody except you is being emotive here. If you ask a question, it is likely that people will give advices based on their own experience and their own way of trading. That's no foisting. Just for your info, Thales has a 9 year old daughter who is able to trade profitably off price action. So as a fact, even a child can do it. Trading can be simple. It is easier for children, because they are not so psychologically unfit. They have lesser ego, lesser fear. As a matter of fact, most people are psychologically unfit for trading and they need to learn the proper mindset along with learning the technical part of trading. And in most cases it is harder than the technical part. So I guess Thales is not judging you personally, but speaks in general. And if you take advices and facts as battering, it's only your fault. If you didn't focus on whether someone is attacking your ego or not, perhaps you could better focus on the subject of the message and eventually take some advice from it.

I am sorry that my post was overbearing, but that doesn't change the fact that it was true. At least in relation to the post of yours which I quoted. I mean that you can't predict if any particular day is going to be a V-day or whatever day. If you know how to find Support and Resistance you have levels or zones where reversal (or trend change, as you call it) is more likely. If you focus on S/R important enough, then you have a good chance that price will go quite far from there before returning, if returning at all. But finding S/R is not enough. Then you need to watch how traders behave when they approach, reach or breach that level. You need to learn how to read in their minds to see if the level will likely hold or not. And this is not a topic for a post but for a book. If you are interested in the subject, that is how to find S/R and how to read traders' behavior at these levels, then read stickies in Wyckoff Forum and/or DbPhoenix's Blog.

This is not the right place to ask such a question. You need to visit an oracle for that.In other words, if you are not a clairvoyant there is no way to tell that in advance. You must learn how to spot the reversal in real time, as it occurs. If you know how to determine Support and Resistance, then you can anticipate a level or area where the occurence of reversal is more likely. But that's all.

I can't understand all these discussions about volume. If one perceives the market as an auction, price alone shows result, an achievement. Volume shows effort. Of course the achievement is what matters the most, but volume shows effort needed to accomplish this achievement. If one watches an auction, watching both the achievement (result) and the effort helps to gain a better picture of what's going on in minds of the other traders. An auction is a series of tests for demand and supply. Volume (effort) shows seriousness (conviction) of the traders. Changes of effort -- watched together with the achievement -- show shift in this conviction. They show shifts from conviction to hesitation, from hesitation to resignation or even to fear. Or the other way around. But when interpreting volume, one must acknowledgle the volume only for what it is and not to use it as a mechanical indicator. One must never separate it from the achievement and from a context of this achiement. And maybe that's why so many people don't understand it, don't want to use it or don't know how to use it. Maybe they seek mechanical or even magic interpretations like "High volume on a down bar signals strength", but thay fail to see what it means within the current auction. My view is a view of a beginner who doesn't even trade live yet, but I think both traders and aspiring traders are divided into two groups. One seeks for merely a statistical advantage and doesn't care much about the logic behind it. The other one cares primarilly about the logic and understands the statistical advantage only as a result and proof of this logic. And I think if one counts himself into the latter group and if the logic he builds on includes dynamics of auction process, he shouldn't disregard volume.

Here is one vision for YM, too To wj: I am quite surprised by your choice of trend line on daily. What rules do you have for drawing them? I generally draw a new one once price breaks a channel and fails to test the trend line again. Or if it fails to test it and then breaks the channel. Then I mark the "Last Relevant Swing Point" which is the last swing point (a swing high, in this case) in the current trend, that is the trend I am seeking a reversal of.

It depends what you mean by chasing. As well as you developed your rules which prevent you from late, not optimal entries (that is impulsive chasing), you can develop rules for entering on breakouts. A breakout is a late entry, too. But if you have rules which tell you under which conditions it is worth to buy high and sell low, then you might find it profitable.

Well, I believe it's not that simple. And I am not happy with my inability to write down what I've been doing. I have guide lines. I have even my 2 main setups written down. Often I trade them by the book. But this trade, for example, was not the case. In fact I am a very lazy person and if I was more diligent with systematical replaying and testing, I could probably formulate my setups more specifically. It's not a feel or intuitive sense. I just learned to perceive the market as an auction in real time. There is nothing more to it. And if I hadn't been blind for so long I wouldn't need such a long period of screen time at all. But as many experienced traders point out, beginners cloud their view with obsolete things and ideas. I can never know what is going to happen, I draw trend lines and I use an indicator (though it doesn't cross ). Trend lines and the indicator are suplementary tools. I don't necessarily need them. The indicator I use is of my own design and it calculates and plots value area since a selected bar on my chart. Of course I can see the VA of a range even without calculating it, as well as I can see that a trend is slowing down even without a trend line. But these tools can give you some (more or less) objective measure and also a way to double-check. But it's a double-edged sword, because if you focus too much on what these tools are doing or how price is behaving in relation them, instead of how it behaves in relation to what they represent, you are detaching yourself from what matters. That was my problem for a long time. And I don't know if all can come from sreen time. First you must have some logical framework for understanding the market (Or maybe you could even develop it while watching, but that wasn't my case). I had a logical framework in AMT and Wyckoff. They are both easy and simple to understand intellectually, but it took me way too much time to see how their principles are demonstrated in real time (because of before mentioned reasons). And that is the purpose of screen time. I appreciate your appreciation but I am still at the beginning. Maybe I've made a couple of first steps.

Ok, I see what you mean. As you could see on the 1 min chart I posted before, the symbols provided by IQ Feed update (almost) continuously during the day. I believe they show the actual number of advancers and decliners and the daily candle represents their difference as it developes since open till close. So if you are interested in a final result for the day, just look at Close of the appropriate candle. Here is your "connect the dots":

NQ is blue-grey bars. A-D is candles with white knots.

If somebody uses IQ Feed, then it is easy to plot A-D difference. For NQ just substract IIQD.Z from IIQA.Z and you have it (for Nasdaq composite). Here plotted as overlay (red) in a today NQ 1 min chart.

Today Db asked me in chat to post my (performed) NQ long here. He said something like that if even Head2k can do it then it should be trivial for the others. Which is true. I am afrad it will be quite a long story, since it begins before the open. So lets start with my preparation for today: First 10k CVB chart for larger context: I noticed that we broke June highs and marked both June high and pmkt high (the top 2 white lines). Now 5 min: A lot of lines. I don't mind a lot of lines as long as I am able to remember what they mean. Here, apart of the top 2 white lines, the most important is 1506 (green) as an importatnt R from yesterday, and 1508 (red) as an older level which was confirmed yesterday and today in the early morning (after 3 am). Midpoints are yellow, dashed. Here I noticed that after the yesterday high price found S almost at 1504.75 (an intraday level from yesterday), then failed to make a higher high (that is above 1520.25), but then failed to make a lower low (that is below 1504.75). Given the time it spent near the top and the manner of rejection off the bottom I was biased more toward longs. But I was ready to take a short if 1512 was broken and 1513.5-1516 was tested afterwards. I left this scenario when price broke 1516 right before open. When that happened I decided to wait how things will develop. We were too close to R to try a long and too strong to try a short. Perhaps this is the point where I should explain how I see ranges. In a range i don't see S and R as just two price levels. I see zones, or better to say "the extreme" and "the level which there is to be tested". Put simply, I see the extremes and the borders of value area within the range. And to get things more complicated, "the level which there is to be tested" can be peceived for a whole range or for an actual swing within the range. Here, for example, 1508 (red) pretty much marks what i percieved as VAL for the range and 1509.25 is "the level which there is to be tested" for the actual swing. Now lets see 1 min after the open: You can see that price almost reached yesterday high and was rejected. Then traders tried to go up again but the effort was ridiculous. I shorted 1516.75 but that's not the trade this post is about. The important fact is that I saw a relative strength as price broke the pmkt highs and was able to test the top again. I acknowledged the fact that this higher high could result in a higher low on a larger scale and I anticipated the higher low within the 1508-1509.25 zone. When price was on its way down I noticed the high activity at 9:39 when price made a swing low at 1510.75. Later, when it poked below that, I noticed that the effort is gone and the down thrust shortened. But I waited. And since I was expecting S a bit lower i started to wonder what the hell is at 1509.75. And i found this: So I thought ok, maybe that's it. Maybe I shoud broaden my S zone from 9.25 to 9.75. But I still wasn't convinced. So I watched closely the 5 sec: Trades tested 1514.25, the VAL of 4:15 - 7:15 range, and then I waited to see whether they would like to visit lower ground. They tested 1509.75 again. I still waited, because I prefer to trade off a higher low (edpected at 1510.75 here). In cases like this, if price bounces, it can easily test a midpoint (1512 here) and head down then. It did test the midpoint, but then couldn't continue down. And there was a nice TD. So I entered at the green arrow and that's it. And this long story quite nicely demonstrates why it is so difficult to get my setups in writing. When I attempt to write something down I inevitably end with something too mechanical. But I can't trade in a mechanical way. The market is too complex for me to describe. I am a simple guy. Which brings me back to the fact that if I can do it, then it should be trivial for others.

I believe that unless I am using a 1 tick chart my entries are quite arbitrary. Not arbitrary in the sense that I wouldn't have rules or at least guide-lines for them, but in the sense that I am missing an important piece of information which my entries should be based on, too. If I want a tight stop, then I need to enter aggressively. I can have rules for what I want to see BEFORE the test I enter at, but cannot wait for much confirmation DURING the test. And I know that this is sometimes the source of my hesitation and missing trades. 1 tick chart can provide this sort of confirmation while you can still maintain a tight stop. Ideally, it gives you the optimal entry point, which is logical for you within all auction scales up to the largest relevant one for you. If you are fast enough to react, which means if you are sure what you are looking at and looking for. (Not that I would attempt to reply to rigel or Shamal, I will leave that for Db. I just wrote what I am thinking of, as it touches the CWS topic, too, at least in my case.) EDIT: I type so slowly that Db already answered. Good

Attaching the tick chart of NQ open on 2009/07/16. 90.5 was tested twice. After the first test price returned to the last congestion, failed to reach its top and poked down again. This second rejection was very fast. After printing 90.5 the next trade occured three ticks higher. After that, price still didn't break up from the congestion, but repeatedly found higher S at the bottom of the congestion, a level corresponding with the tiny swing low visible at the beginning of the chart. This fast rejection (2) and failure to poke down again led traders to seek trades higher. They reached 92.5 (swing high on this scale), failed to breached it so they tested down again. But the last congestion provided S, as could be anticipated (3). And not only the congestion provided S, price also failed to reach its bottom. Down is a no go, so a higher high follows. After that S is found on the top of the congestion (4, 5). So what one can do here? An aggressive entry could be after (1), a bit less aggressive after (2). The entry after (3) I like the most (suits my style the best), after (4) the least. (5) is a nice retracement and a conservative entry for a worse price. I like the tick chart and I tried to watch it and trade off it a few days in the beginning of this month, but... The whole part of the chart after 9:30 displays 1 minute, not even whole. Especially during open, the activity is so high that my chart doesn't update with every tick but is printed in "bursts". On a static chart in hindsight I can distinguish between "entry after (1)" and "entry after (2)", but in RT it would be one trade. Sure, watching the tick chart or T&S is the only way how to watch the real flow, but it is very demanding. I definitely plan to use tick chart in the future, but not right now. I realize that the processing of so much information in such a short time could be much easier if I could put it well in the context (as there is almost no wider context provided on the tick chart itself). It could be easier if I developed timing setups or at least guide lines for the tick chart. But after thinking about it for a while I decided that such a thing I will leave for the future, as another step in my development. Adding a tick chart to what I watch now is too much and the "gap" between 1m and 1t is too big for me. And I yet need to learn how to not hesitate on 5 sec, while on the 1t you must have reactions like a machine . Maybe using IB data is better in some sense. I tried it too, and I liked it more than real tick chart. Since IB don't offer true tick data but rather take snapshots, some ticks are left out in very active periods (especally in algo bursts) and the tick chart provides more context. What I liked about IB was that they update TICKQ roughly 2-5 times more often than IQ Feed. TICKQ from IQ Feed is ok for 5 sec but unusable for 1t chart. So, I definitely appreciate the advantages of 1t chart, but I yet need to learn how to use it and how to trade off it. And since I've got a lot of other problems, I decided to first settle my approach with the tools I am using currently.

My (not) trading today's NQ open provides a nice example for this thread. First a 5 min chart with my prep (including latter action, too): I had 1508.5 as the nearest important R. The white lines describe a range I wanted to trade off. I noticed that price poked above yesterday high, was rejected, but then failed to make a lower low (compared to the low made after 4 am). On a small scale it made a higher high (after 9 am). So I was looking for a long off another test of support (i.e. a poke below 91.25). Now lets look at 5 sec to see what happened at open: Notes are mainly in the picture. Except for the white lines, the drawings were added in hindsight. Conclusion: Be ready at open to place the order quickly. Don't hesitate. Open is just a continuation of premarket. If the setup is there, then enter, should it be within the first second. If you miss the entry and the setup is not invalidated yet and original level for moving stop to BE was not reached yet, then you can place the stop limit order later in the original place (i.e. at price where it should have been in the first place) so it acts as a limit. (Though that probably wouldn't help in this case) If you miss the optimal entry don't start groaning, but focus on looking for another possible entry instead. Today I could have entered somewhere on the test marked with the blue grey arrow or after the SB, at the red arrow. Missing this trade hurts, even on paper, because later I made 5 trades back and forth in what turned to be a developing hinge and I ended with a slightly negative total net result. And before the time when it was worth to trade again, that is before the hinge came to its end, I was already so frustrated and bored that I turned the trading platform off and just watched.

I tried NT only briefly and never attempted to program in it, but I've been using AmiBroker for a year or so. I am no programmer and only knew some basic general syntax, since I learned Pascal as a child. And I must say I had no difficulties to code in AFL, after I read the appropriate parts of the AmiBroker manual. AFL is strong and fast with arrays. And the only difficulty I had in the beginning was to distinguish between array and number variables and appropriate syntax when using them. I don't know C, but AFL is said to be very similar to it. So if someone can code in C he should have no problems with AFL. What I like on AmiBroker is that I always could code what I wanted. It is very flexible. But as i said, I cannot offer a comparison with NT. Anyway, why not to donwload both (AB has a trial and NT is for free) and try them both?

Try AFL Library accessible from AmiBroker website.

Since, as you said, you made statements and not questions in Hinges thread, the fact that there was no reply needn't imply that those statements were ignored. Usually there are replies to questions. A statement deserves a reply in two cases. Either when it is so wrong that it needs to be corrected or when it is so brilliant that others show their appreciation. I believe the nature of hinges is well explained in the Hinges thread or in Db's blog, but since you ask for yet another opinion, my opinion is that hinges represent indecision. Not because traders would like to test their patience or because they would "realize they would be overcome" but because they are simply not sure about direction. Or at least sure to that extent that they would show enough effort to break the last swing point. As to where the hinges form, one can expect them to form where the traders are likely to be unsure. That is before news, in centers of developing ranges and above S, below R or around both. As for elimination of the previous directional disposition, it is true in appropriate proportions (on appropriate trend scale). If one is interested in trading across more wave scales he needs to be aware of the scale, location and context of the hinge. He should be aware of what it is the traders are indecisive about. That's not only direction but also a meaning of where we are going from (what does the midpoint represent) and going to (what we are against or not against in case of any particular direction). As for the ending of the hinge, that "horizontal line", it is usually not a line at all, or at least I don't perceive it that way. The hinge is just a series of tests. And in the end of the hinge, there is usually the final test. What one can see as a line is usually a test of midpoint of the hinge. The fact that traders in force (either bulls or bears) don't manage to test the other side but are stopped with almost no effort in midpoint (in fact they are not stopped but rather stop by themselves) implies that they are done. Reversion to the mean doesn't require any particular effort. What requires effort is trying to push to the other side. So once they don't push through the midpoint I expect they are done. Of course this is not the only possible ending of a hinge, but I think it is the one which is the best readable and quite common. And last, I am not an expert on hinges. I am just a beginner on a sim who, as of now, doesn't even trade them. If you are interested in hinges in particular, I think atto or Db are the best people to enlighten you. You can often reach them in the chat room and debate about developing hinges in real time.

Thanks James, this is an interesting topic. If things go well I am planning to go live in Autumn and safety measures are also one of the things I need to solve. So far I have: Two computers. One desktop PC and one notebook. That should protect me from electricity blackouts (which are not so uncommon here, especially during summer rainstorms) and from PC failures (though my PC's are stable). Two internet connections. DSL and a wireless connection. I can also set up a connection via my cell phone in 20 minutes or so, if things go really bad. I have a land line and a cell phone to reach my broker. What I am thinking of is whether I need two brokers. So far I have only one, IB. So I'd like to ask more experienced traders whore are with IB how often IB have problems. Kiwi said once in 5 years. How long did it take to restore the severs? Minutes? hours? days? And were they able to close your position while their servers were down? (Assuming you had a position and called them.) Also I'd like to ask NQ traders how often there are exchange problems and if and how they hedge in those cases.

I thought you guys (at least Db and atto) already have the course. So why to obtain a copy from a library? Also, if I remember correctly, OrlandoB was selling the course in pdf format (along with another Wyckoff stuff) a few days ago here. So I don't get the point of getting a copy from library and restoring it, when a pdf is already available. Is there something I am missing? Some copyright issues of your copies, or is the library version special in some way... ?

Speaking of PnF, once I coded it for AmiBroker. I didn't get far with it, so the box is preset to 1 point and can't be adjusted. The indicator has to be layed over price chart (because of proper y-axis scaling) and it converts the visible price chart to 1 PnF chart. Figure Chart.rar

I don't think you can put an equation here. This statement is valid only if you are looking only at one "time frame", or better to say "wave scale". But if you watch more wave scales simultaneously then you can eventually keep both price risk and information risk low. The price risk needn't to be exactly the same as if you entered right at the extreme, but only slightly higher. While the information risk can decrease substantially.But then you must define what do you want to see on larger wave scale before your entry (setup), and then you must enter aggressively on the small wave scale. This is in fact what one does if he enters on tests. He waits for confirmation on a larger wave scale to decrease information risk, but then takes an aggressive entry on a small wave scale to decrease price risk.

The chat is a tricky thing and you should probably ask yourself why you attend it. Attending the chat can be a great way how to learn from more experienced traders. You can see what they are looking at and how they are interpreting it in real time. You can ask them questions about market development in real time. But it can be also very distracting, even in several ways. First, there is a lot of pure chatter going on that can harm your focus. Second, listening to other people can prevent you from trusting or even forming your own opinion. So I think that the chat is good only to a certain point while you learn. And if you truly want to learn, maybe you shouldn't even trade while in chat. But after that point I think it is better to turn the chat off and stay alone just with your chart. Because of self-reliance, accountability and focus. You can turn the chat on again when you are done for the day, or if you feel puzzled or wondering about what's happening on the chart (in that case you should stop trading anyway). I'd also suggest you to think about Blowfish's post. Since you got your account back to BE because of overtrading you could be trying to avoid making decisions to avoid potential further losses. So the question is whether you really miss the trades unintentionally or you are lying to yourself. I am in such a phase now myself. After letting fear of missing out to cause over- and revenge trading I began to fear losses and that often causes hesitating and passing valid setups.