jonbig04

:rofl: That's awesome.

As you can see, a short around 1101 would have been nice. I tried, but the PA was strange to me. I couldn't get in a sppt that I liked. I missed fill a few times as price made some HH's. Then I gave up on it and oof course that was the top. No biggy though, least you can see the nice flip I was trying to catch. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Did you short 6E? Been watching it and thought you may have caught it,

What a clean trade thales, very nice.

I use it! But I don't "analyze it". I just use it to signal a rise in activity, which may or may not be important. Many times the highest bar before a reversal to the downside, and the lowest bar before a reversal to the upside, are printed on large volume. I could probably just use price expansion, but I like the unequivocal high volume bar on the bottom of the screen. I should mention that though there always seems to be high volume at S/R, it doesn't signal whether that S/R is going to hold or not (at least not for me). For me, it just reaffirms my belief that many others are watching that level too, which is of course what S/R is all about. I have never been able to use volume to give me any sort of directional edge. I also use it for breakouts. Once again, I could probably just use price expansion, but as long as I keep volume in the context of what price is doing, it's helpful for me. For example, in a breakout the the upside I look for what I call climactic volume (as is in completely larger than anything else around), along with price rising higher and higher. To me this signals all kinds of new demand entering the market and hopefully could mean me catching a runner. Just my 2 cents.

Ha I think I started a thread once about inverse risk/reward or whatever, and mathematically we can't say it's any better or worse than a standard R/R. But you should absolutely be aware that anyone can hit huge numbers of small winners in a row by taking huge risks. Its just eventually the big loss comes in. I'm not saying thats a negative per se because the person could still be well in the green when that big loss comes, but a high win rate is a given and means nothing until you see the PnL after a few inevitable losses. It's kinda like the difference between buying out of the money options and selling them with no edge in either. In buying them, you lose, lose, lose, lose and then hit a big winner ( which may or may not put you in the green). In selling them you win, win, win, win and then take a huge loss (which may or may not put you in the red). Neither is better or worse than the other per se, but you shouldn't take the high win rate as a positive all on its own.

Nice, hopefully sellers can push it past the 1.4121 area.

Wowza....................

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch I also lost 3 ticks making sure ES wasn't going to keep going today. It stopped, and I cut it for -0.75ES. Figured a pic would be useless ha.

Yea it definitely feels better when things are that clean.

Feel free to post anything you want in the log! I appreciate the feedback. I have that exact level marked on 6E. Unfortunately I didn't have it marked before the DB happened, so I didn't get long. But I am keeping an eye out bc it might be worth a try shorting a potential breakout to the downside if that DB fails. Usually I like the patterns to be bigger, but that DB is so precise (only 1 tick separating the legs) that I can try for a BO with very small stop. Good find.

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IMHO you were spot on. In trading we must learn to embrace things that, in almost all other professions, we try at all costs to avoid. You could even say we are programmed to avoid them: losing money and being wrong.

We have a new high and I stand aside.

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Ha, Thales I was just about to ask you if you took that trade, as its very similar to your short from last night. I missed fill like a loser. EDIT: And that's interesting about the fib levels and s/r swing points. I was going to ask you why you didn't use levels like 37.5 for the scales and then I realized the fib levels lined up. Coincidence?

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch Man that breakdown on 6E is still going! Hate that I missed it, especially when I was waiting for it. Good PA though.

Some S/R action and the larger picture of the S&P. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Thanks. Ha, I love that trade. It's not a part of my current plan, but I can absolutely see why you would take it. I am/was looking for shorts up here though, I just had to miss today's afternoon session to finish some last minute moving stuff. However I don't think I would been able to get the short in. I really wanted it at or slightly above 47.25. My trading is kind rigid right now, not the best policy, but just until I get the hang of using the sequence entries.

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That's true! I always tell people if the whole world collapsed into anarchy I could still trade various goods as long as I had access to recent prices, some graph paper, and a pencil. Of course I'm not sure if that would actually work haha, but that is how fundamental I believe S/R to be.

Since I feel kinda left out as I am the only one trading ES, thought I'd comment on 6E. In my view we are sitting just above major Support. If that support breaks down, we could see a nice break out to the downside (below 1.4256). I am watching that area to see if it breaks with volume expansion, in which case I will attempt to ride it down. Until then, IMO we are still at major S and I wouldn't want to to short here until that level breaks down. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Not a bad way to start off 2010. I didn't realize though that the S was so close, so I only ended up with 8ES. oops. Price is now back above where I shorted last night. Here's to using s/r for exits too! Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch