jonbig04

I exited for the 15 min between RTH and globex (broker requirement), but will be getting back in at the same spot, with the same stop when trading resumes in 10 minutes or so. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch Oh I know it's not "real time" haha. For the first few minutes after entering, the last thing I'm thinking about is posting it. If it's not real time enough feel free to ignore me! No hard feelings.

Yup, I'm partial to the large time frame stuff. Especially when I can get in with a small stop.

Hmm never really thought bout it. I'm watching CL now. Unless one is vastly better than the other, I guess it would be CL.

I pulled up crude for the first time over the weekend and just threw some S/R up there to see how it reacted to them today..and damn! Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

:( Actually I have started watching crude lately too.

Hmm I have to disagree. After all, even with a 90% win rate and R/R of 1:5 you could still go broke. It's possible, just not very likely. I do agree that managing risk is our highest priority. But I think there is a difference between risk management and being just plain fearful, and the difference may be difficult to discern. But being fearful is just as damaging as being greedy, only in a longer, slower, more drawn out sort of way. I think that there are all kinds of ways we prepare for trading. Reading books, coming up with a system and trading it SIM, screentime and on and on. But we can never fully eliminate the possibility of, well, disaster can we? In trading or in anything in life. The need for preparation is obvious and well documented here at TL, but equally important is the ability to execute without hesitation, without fear. At some point we have to go into this market and TAKE what we've earned because no one is going to give it to us. An edge seems to me to be pretty useless without the aggressive application of it at some point. Without that you won't lose everything in a week, but you might gain nothing after years and years. I guess it's debatable which is worse. Just my 2 cents/late night rambling though :missy:

Math has never been my strong point, but it seems like 20% risk is only part of the equation. With decent accuracy and decent R/R you wouldn't need to get lucky, you just couldn't afford to get unlucky. Right?

So I'm now watching 6E, ZN, and CL for large time frame breakouts. I've said many times that if I could just trade that setup it would be absolutely killer. It just doesn't happen very often. Hopefully I'll be able to locate that setup more often with more instruments. Each instrument is different though so it takes some getting used to.

My apologies EMNQ! I didn't even see your posts. Great stuff.

So it looks like I leave with +12.75ES for the half month, which is on target with my 20ES per month goal. So that's cool. Looking forward to Feb. Will post more later, I'm too hungover to think.

Nikke, Thanks for your reply. I discussed this entry in the another thread, you can read it here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/reading-charts-real-time-6151.html There is a detailed response from Thales regarding it too. As you can see, basically I have determined that this was a "shit happens" scenario. I had no possible entries, both equally valid and I happened to pick the one that didn't work. Anyway check out that other post for more info. Regarding 3BR, it's really not my thing. I know many people who use 3BR and even 2BR with great results, however I haven't been able to.

Thanks for the advice guys. I'll start looking around.

Hehe, well at least it got me and not both of us. I thought about you when I took the short because I think it was identical to a short you took on ES a couple days ago, that I missed. Anyway, I think I'm just gonna chock this one up to "crap happens". About the price/information risk dilemma, well I guess we could talk about that for days. That trade was a perfect example of the trade off between the two and I happened to end up on the wrong side. I'm sure I've been on the right side many times too, and just never took the time to notice. About being dynamic, I'm going to do as you suggested and just take it slow. I will not forget what happened today and hopefully through trading more and more I will get more and more dynamic. I will say though that the benefit of being as stubborn about my rules as I always have been is that increasing size hasn't had any adverse effect on my trading. Nor did moving from SIM to cash. I saw so many struggling with those two things that I set out from the beginning to make sure I accounted for them. Only now that I am actually increasing size am I starting to be glad that I did that. I'm not trading large size or anything lol, but one day I will be.

Hope this isn't in the wrong section. I'm looking for suggestions on who to use for accounting. Ideally someone who could also advise me on the business of trading/money management in general. Thanks.

So I got stopped to the tick last night, and I really didn't like it. Haha. Thales i was hoping you would look over this and let me know what you think. I'm trying determine if it was just bad luck or if there's a better route I could have taken. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch The red lines are the trade that I took. We had a high, a HL and a LL. I was slightly apprehensive before I took this because the LH was only a tick below the high, and there was a small support area that I was afraid might hold and own me (which it did) in the green boxes. But I had a choice. I could make the entry higher up, which I did. And my stop would be further up, which it was. The down side would be that the little support area would still be there lurking. Or I could wait for that area to break down and have my stop in a slightly worse spot. The downside to that (besides the worse stop placement) is that if price didn't bounce right there like it did, it may end up never returning to give me the 123 and I don't take the trade unless it's at the extreme, which I usually define as 2-3 points from where price found R. In my mind either entry was valid and had its's drawbacks and it just so happens that the one I took came back to bite me. But I wanted to see what you had to say about it. I know of course that when you trade you use much bigger waves, but leave that aside for now. Also one thing I am considering is something I'm uneasy to consider, and thats being more dynamic. I've always been a rules person, and a discipline person, but I can't help but look at this trade and see how price reached the trouble spot (green box) we had a slight volume spike and even a doji. Maybe if I was more dynamic, I could have moved to BE at that point and waited for the secondary entry that I marked with the green lines? I always think that kind of thinking is playing with fire though.

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch -1.5ES

Ouch. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Haha, that works for me. :rofl:

Yeah good point, the fed stuff could be what its "waiting" for, if its gonna break. It looks prime for a break, but does feel like its waiting for something. Of course that's all just gut-feel stuff haha. It will be interesting to see what happens with it. I don't know if there's a name for this pattern, but basically it tested support a suspicious amount of times (I've always believed that the more times it tests, the more likely it is to break), all the while making LHs. I've seen this action quite a few times and its paid off for me in the past. If it doesn't have a name already, we should give it one haha. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Yes it will. Not sure what platform you're using, but I would use a buy-stop-limit order for that.

I don't even know what the heck you are talking about.

I've been hoping for that thing to breakout to the downside. I tried last night, but it found some more S. Only costs me 2 ticks though. With that kind of R/R, I'm inclined to try again if it makes LLs. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Hmm, to be honest I don't follow the logic, but I appreciate the clarification!

Out of curiosity, is there a reason the light blue line is slightly above where the DB occurred?