jonbig04

HAHA! that's awesome.

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch Bah, shoulda kept my mouth shut. -1.25. This month sucks.

Yea I can see how you could make that argument. I'm not sure if you could conclusively say I would be better off in the long run, it's tough to tell. Scaling in make a lot of sense to me, it's just not something I want to tackle in my trading just yet. One of my main reasons for allin/out was that I could focus on the trade itself and leave the management for another day. Like I mentioned before, IMO whether you scale in or out or not shouldn't make or break you're trading, but more of a fine tuning kinda thing. That's of course the worst thing about scaling, your stops are still full size. But then you have to take into account all the times you could have scaled and didn't. I think that usually not scaling is more profitable, all things being equal, but I don't think it's a massive difference. However, in this case all things wouldn't be equal. Even though I'm taking profit where I usually wouldn't, I'm also letting the same amount run where I usually wouldn't. That alone should take care of the expectancy. Instead of being all out at +10, it will ideally be something like +5, +10, +15-which of course averages out the same as the +10 all out, only with a smoother curve and less pain and suffering between haha. About the arbitrary number, like I said, they will be based on intraday s/r, or better s/r if I can get it. For example, the first scale would be at the nearest swing from me, the next scale would probably be a major R point (as that place will be the same as my all out target is now) the next place will be some other swing point I can find. I just used the number for explanations sake. Like that last trade I was in I moved my stop to .75 above the entry, which to me is BE. If I can risk only a few ticks and stay above a swing, why not do it? So the numbers all all approximates. The other thing is that I very rarely take a full stop. It's almost always BE. This month (which is shaping up to be one of my worst months ever ha) I've only had 1 full stop and it was to the tick.

Gah! Short taken out for -0.75

Opinions Needed! So here's the deal. I'm going to start scaling. I know, I've talked so much smack about scaling here and elsewhere, BUT I have good reasons. Also, it's my opinion that scaling, all in/out, trailing etc are all just the fine tuning of a strategy. I don't think they make or break a good strategy, but that's my opinion. First off, in my opinion and in my trading, all in/out has been more profitable. That's why I've done it for so long. Obviously, it's tough psychologically to see those big winners come back to BE and to have an equity curve that looks like the results of a polygraph test, but to me that was appealing. I wanted to prove to myself that I had the mental fortitude and discipline to follow a plan that I knew was more profitable, no matter how much it hurt. I feel like I have done that. Now that I'm starting to increase size I realize that peace of mind is worth something, and if I have to sacrifice SOME profit for it, then that's ok. Let's face it, when your goal is 20ES a month and you see a +11 go to BE, it's no fun. But I am hoping that my scaling will be just as, if not more profitable than my all in/out. Here's how: I'm not sure if I'm going to be scaling out in 1/3rds or 1/4ths or what yet, but just for explanations sake, let's call it thirds. What I do now is basically move my stop to BE after +5 or so (when ever price reaches an intraday s/r level that may cause it to come back on me) and hold on for a 9-12ES target. What happens is that I move to BE, get taken out BE (where as if I kept my initial stop, the trade would have survived) before price proceeds to my target. Seems to happen all the damn time actually. So I've decided that if I'm going to move to BE, I'm going to have to take some profit off at the same time. There's just no way that BE will ever pay for itself when it's costing me a full target, especially a 1:7 R/R target, unless I book some profit when I move the stop. I will take a 1/3rd or 1/4th or whatever off around +4 to +6 depending on the intraday S/R, and move my stop to BE (or close to BE) on the rest. That will give me around 1:3 R/R on that scale. The next scaling area will be my original target around 9-10ES, or around 1:6 R/R. Then I will have another new target around +15ES or so, a real runner. Depending on the trade (whether I'm with the anchor trend etc) this runner could be really far off, maybe even around 20ES. Once again, it will depend on the charts. With that plan I'm really hoping to net more than all in/out. I could backtest, but I HATE backtesting and the results never seem to mean squat for me anyway. Anyway, tell me what you think.

That sim trade? It got owned. I got a short in ES today. I actually missed fill on the initial lower low, but I simply left the limit there hoping price would flip that area, which it did (getting my order in). It's funny because the reason I missed fill originally was because price was at my limit of 1009, but never traded through to 1009.25. I find that most of the time price does have to trade through my limit in order to fill, but not always. When I got fill, I actually got it when price was at 1109 exactly and hadn't yet traded to 1009.25. Kind of interesting I thought. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch Notice how price bounced up and tried to take me out BE! Which it would have, but instead of moving to BE I moved my stop to just a tick above that little swing. I think it left me with a 0.75 stop and it held. Ha! How do you like that ES? Stop hunters go home empty handed this time. I'm not crazy enough to hold over the weekend, I closed just before 4:15EST. Now what the heck do I do? I guess I will wait and if the market opens at the same price Sunday night. I'll simply enter back in my short with my stop in the same place it was. So it will actually be a 3.25 point stop. Onto CL and 6E. I'm still trading these sim. Trying to nail down the swings and stops and targets. They are so much different than ES, it's going to take some getting used to. But as you can see from these charts, the same rules apply (and no I didn't mark these hindsight): Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch Awesome CL flip, just the kind of trade I take on ES. I'm thinking my stop's on CL will be around 15-20 ticks give or take. With targets around 100-150 ticks. Just a rough guess, that's why I'm trading it sim for now. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch 6E had a nice flip too, but it would have been tough to catch on the smaller TF and it wouldn't have panned out anyway.

-.75ES today, thought maybe the upmove would continue, stupid Fed.

Word. I'm just glad to be able to pay some bills with it. Makes me feel good. Even if it's not a Ferrari payment. Brick by brick.

Just something interesting I'm watching between trades. As you can see from this chart of the S&P and US Dollar index (blue), there's been something of an inverse correlation. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch Here's a chart of the 6E/ EUR/USD, which to me suggest the possibility of a breakout further down, eg a strengthening US dollar ( at least against the Euro). Namely I'm looking for the failure of the double bottom. If the correlation continues, that wouldn't bode well for the S&P right? Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch Here's a current look at ES. As you can see, it's at major R. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch So I'm wondering if the inverse correlation will continue and we see a breakdown in the EUR/USD (6E) and rejection of ES at this major level. I'm a PA only guy, but I think it's interesting to watch this kinda stuff for the heck of it. Can't hurt.

haha I didn't see that! :beer:

Sorry for the lak of updates. I haven't been in any trades! Well I've entered a few stop limit orders, but none of them have filled. Here's what I'm looking for now on ES, in foresight: Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch We are nearing major R, or may have already gotten there. I have it marked at 1101.75-1103.75. Notice the two circles. Price found R at 1103.25 and 1103.75, but the next time price only made it to 1101.75. That's a 2 point range I'm comfortable playing, but I didn't want to take any shorts until we were at least at 1101.75, and price only made it to 1100 earlier. That being said I'm looking for shorts just above there, ideally near 1103. Whether the uptrend resumes or not, I'm banking on a strong reaction to that area (again maybe 1100 is all the R we will see, but I doubt it). Notice the red line, that's what I would like to see price do. Now assuming we do get to 1103, I would like to see climactic volume on a faster chart, follows by a LH and a LL. That's what I'm waiting for, in foresight. There is also the possibility of a breakout above 1103.75. If price takes that area with momentum I would try to jump on the bandwagon. Ideally though, we get a nice rejection before that happens. That way I can hopefully catch and profit from such a rejection and it will give us a better idea of where the BO may take place, if it happens.

Have you seen the new S4? I saw one today and couldn't believe how awesome it looked. Never have I seen a car look so normal in pictures and so great in real life.

Sorry for the thread jack! In keeping with the spirit of the thread: Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch I have loved the evo for so long, I just can't leave it out. I remember being so happy when I found out the Evo 8 was being sold in America. Regardless of what you think about sedans and rice rockets etc, this car demands respect. Put a couple thousand into this car and you can still use it to take your kids to skill, all the while embarrassing cars that cost 10x more. I wouldn't buy one because I don't think it's luxurious/stylish enough. If I had one I would do some serious weight management, install a roll cage, put a few goodies on it and take it to the local track. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch The Audi R8 was mentioned before. To me, it's downright gorgeous. I saw one in person a few days ago and it looks even better close up. It's not may favorite simply because if I dump over $100k on a car, I want it to be quicker than 12.8 in the 1/4. That's a buttload of money that, stock for stock, is about the same as an Evo. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch The 911 turbo. I love this car so much. Everything about is perfection. But, it's $150k. Don't get me wrong, I think it's worth it, but the problem I have is with Porsche's cannibalistic lower-level models. Call me ostentatious, but if I spent $150k on a car, I would want people to know that this car is rare, awesome, and mine. But to the untrained eye, let's face it, there's not much difference between a 911 turbo and a snail spec Boxter. That's good for Boxter owners who want the prestige of owning a Porsche, but not so good for 911 turbo owners. I know I know, who cares what everyone thinks right? Well if I spend $150k on a car, I do. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch This is my favorite car right now. The new BMW M3. Just $55,000. My favorite thing about this car is that it's power is suggested, but unmistakable (especially in person). It's refined and subdued, but something about it also says "Don't F*** with me". It's luxurious and sounds amazing. It's also naturally aspirated which means, well, you don't have to keep it that way. What kind of car do I have right now? Well I live downtown, so it looks something like this: Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Oh yea, very rare. I've only seen a handful anywhere. Mine was the 2003.5 titanium gray. Nothing cosmetic done to it. But I did have front mounted intercooler (as I see you did) and hard pipes w/ a greddy blow off valve (that I had to recirculate and the thing sounded just like a turkey!), cold air intake and of course an electronic boost control set at about 11PSI. Oh and a cat-less downpipe that made a world of difference. That car was so much fun. Of course I did wreck it eventually lol. :doh: After I had that car I got into real estate and of course futures. I miss those days, when all I cared about was my car and the weekend. I only had it for about 2 years. A fun 2 years though.

WTF you had a maszdaspeed protege?!?! So did I! hahahaha, back when I was 16. Gosh I had fun in that car.

Damn $2,500 a month? Ninjatrader costs me $190 every 3 months, my broker charges $4.80 or so per RT. Then again I don't know anything about how you trade, maybe you do something much different than me that requires something I'm not aware of.

There will be people you say you only need $1,000 per contract and people who say you need $5000 per contract. IMO it depends entirely on you. You've been trading for a year now so you should know what your equity curve, max draw down, and accuracy look like. Some systems take large draw downs, some don't. My personal view is that if you begin trading with, say, $1,500, that gives you a full $1,000 before you can't no longer trade (given a $500 intraday margin). For me, If I lost $1,000 trading 1 car, something would be seriously wrong and I would want to go back to sim and see what I could do to fix it. For others that kind of draw down may be acceptable. It depends entirely on what your system's risk profile looks like IMO.

Just curious, as that's the area I will be looking for shorts. Not saying I'll find any though. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Are you concerned at all about the 1.384 area acting as R?

Thanks Thales. Here's an example of my first S/R fade of CL from this am (in sim) Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch The reason I didn't get in on the initial breakdown of the green line is bc I missed fill lol. I just let the limit sit there and hoped the price would flip and retest the level, which it did. Price eventually came back and rallied up, knocking me out BE. I am seriously considering scaling. Haha as much as I've preached against it. I'll go into more detail later.

Haven't taken a trade in a while. That weird day on ES messed with my S/R levels, trying to figure out where we are at again. I have decided to start trading 6E and CL with the same setups I use on ES, namely the s/r fades. They of course react just as well to s/r as ES, and there really is no way for me to get a feel for the other instruments unless I'm watching them all the time a I do with ES. Plus I will be able to take more trades. I am trading them sim now and will continue to do so until I am comfortable enough to take them live. This is a pretty big change as, unlike the breakout setup, my s/r fade setup occurs 4-7 times per week on each instrument. After I get used to these other instruments I will be taking a lot more trades (without sacrificing, and maybe improving, the quality of those trades).

Sorry that last trade was actually -1 tick, not BE.

Grr Hate being up all night for a BE. Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

Interesting, it almost seems like the support you want to see broken for your entry (thus making a LL and stopping you in) wasn't breaking, but only getting pierced by enough to stop you in. Just out of curiosity, why did you exit the last one?

Good points Head. IMO assuming that's a large time frame, the answer to both questions is yes. I would play that BO and I would exit at the bottom of the upper rectangle. If it was a shorter time frame I would short at the same area you described and hold for a LL with both cars, but that's just me. I guess you could go larger, but I only look at pretty large time frame breakouts already. The CL chart above is not what I used to determine the BO. It was the test of 72.4 a few days ago and back in December. If you scroll back a bit in this thread to 2/4 you will see a chart of CL posted by thales. That's what I was looking at, more than the more recent action. Here's ES currently Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch