jonbig04

Yea I know what you mean. My targets wouldnt be so high (18,36,54 points) if the market wasnt so volatile. Then again, my stops would have to be so large either. I dont see my 2nd or 3rd targets ever being lower than 20 and 30 though, but the market is what dictates of course.

Good day, only one trade..albeit a very long one, no pun intended. This trade yielded some nice points, but I was most proud of the entrance. I only took 4 ticks or so heat before hitting my first 2 targets so it could have been slightly better, but I'm happy nonetheless. Price came back down and tested the support, but thanks to my precise entry, I didn't get stopped out on my last car and I sold at the end of the day. Exits were a problem today. After I hit my first 2 targets there was a point where, if I had not been in the trade I would have been looking for shorts. Obviously that is dumb. I wanted badly to close out the trade and reverse, but I dont have a rules set for that yet. I will soon, and I know its an area thats need to be worked on b/c that's where the real points are. For now I have to settle for my static targets. No big deal, I will continue working on entries until I feel comfortable with them and start showing some consistency then I will tackle my exit strategy. 1 trade +18, +36, +15.5 +23AVG Weekly performance +34 Sweet. Will post some more states later. accuracy etc.

Yea this volatility is crazy. I dont know if its good for me or bad for me.

I'm going to do what I mentioned yesterday tonight. Look up 5 minute windows where an entry is called for and then see if I can be more precise. I don't really know if I should adjust my entry rules at all or just practice entering over and over. After today and yesterday I kind of feel like a piece of shit, some days I feel like I'm progressing at an acceptable pace, some days I feel like I've never progressed. What I know is I just have to keep at it as fiercely as possible.

I honestly feel like I was very unlucky yesterday. First entry was too late, next was too early. But the truth is the rules for my entry are...ambiguous, they leave me room to be somewhat flexible...I think they have to. If I would have entered better yesterday its fair to say that 1 or 2 of those trades would have been a winner. We only talking about a few points here, so thats the part I was frustrated with. As of right now my targets are set multiples of my stop. You are right, thats not ideal and exits should be as specific as entries. The reasons the targets are static now is 1. I'm simply working on entries first, 2. With my current low accuracy its forces me into a favorable R/R. So right now Im just focusing on increasing my accuracy via better entries and after that I will max out the r/r with more strategic exits. I don't really see the stops as static though since I decided were to put them.

Gosh NQ was on crack this afternoon. Pisses me off. I want to see how everybody made money on the NQ today during the afternoon. thing was all over the place.. Took a short in the morning, was quickly stopped out. 1st trade -4, -4 ,-4 Then another short, went down a good 11 points before coming back to stop me out 2nd trade -4, -4 ,-4 Then a long after lunch, hit first target, was stopped out on the other 2 third trade...of course it rallied like crazy after stopping me out. My entry was good though, there is not much I could have done that I know of to keep from getting stopped out. +18, -4, -4 And a short right near the close which was of course stopped out. fourth trade -4, -4 ,-4 I'm so frustrated I'm just going to go take a nap.

9/26 Did some replay testing. I'm confused slightly because the results seem to me too...good. I've checked everything and I'm not accidentally skewing the results my way...I don't know what the deal is. Anyways the results aren't as important as what i'm trying to accomplish: better entries. Thats the whole reason I'm doing this, to get more surgical entries. The best example is this trade. I was stopped out once, then took a long. It was a good trade because I love the entry. The support took a lot of heat before by first target was reached, but since the entry was precise the trade stayed intact and ended up being a nice gain. I had to sell early because of the end of the day. This wasn't my best day of the replay testing I did tonight, but Im most proud of this entry. 1st trade: -4. -4 . -4 2nd trade +18, +27.25, +27.25 +20 AVG 9/24 I replayed through 9/25, but there were no entries that day. Weird, but it happens...a flaw in my rules I hope to fix. Here's 9/24: Took no trades almost all day. I was about to say F it and go to the next day, but I'm not allowed to do that. So I stuck with it and sure enough I got an entry in like 5 minutes before close. I just figured it would probably end up being +1 or -1 or whatever, but the sucker rallied hard for the next 5 minutes. I hit my first target just before close and sold the other 2 on close. Ha, the markets weird thing. One trade +18, +19, +19 +18.66AVG 9/23 This was an up day, but I believe it represents a failure because the entry was crappy, as you can see. My large 4 point stop saved the trade, but like I said the whole point of replay testing is to get more precise entries. This one hit 2 targets then fell almost all the way back to break even, I sold at the end of the day. 1 trade +18, +36, +1 +18.33AVG I won't be posting my replay results anymore. Since they aren't real time they don't count, even though I try to make it as realistic as possible while still maximizing how many I can get done. I think I'm going to goo look up like 50 entries and just skip to them and see how precise I can enter. That would be better than testing a whole day and keeping track of points that don't really count.

Slightly frustrating, slightly uneventful day. I went short early. Was stopped out and price proceeded a mere 1.25 points above my stop before tanking. Too bad. 1st trade, -4, -4 ,-4 Then I tried to short again. Missed the damn fill and price tanked again. 2nd trade, no fill Then I went short AGAIN. this time the trade went 15.5 points my way, just 2.5 points away from my first target before coming all the way back up to stop me out. Watching +15 go to -4? Ouch. NQ is a bitch sometimes lol. -8 AVG for the day. I have no excuse for what should have been a stellar day.

Consistency is the tough part. Anyone can do well for a couple days like I did. As you can see, a bad day can set me back quite a bit. Today was a good day, but it should have been better. The PA was so clean, it seems like everybody made money (not possible i know) so I need to be able to really capitalize on days like today... it should have been a +64 day, but instead was just a +28. I need to work on that. I'm just a piker trying to learn like a lot of others. Managing risk is another. I do it through hard stops, but as I get more precise entries I should be able to have smaller stops. Come to think of it, I'm not sure I need a 4 point stop. Anyways, no replays tonight. i'm a slacker I know. Ill make up for it tomorrow though.

Good day today. Its nice to see my replay results weren't flukes. Took a long in the morning, was quickly stopped out. Entry could have been better, but I was wrong anyways so I would have gotten stopped out anyway. 1st trade -4. -4. -4 Then tried a short. I messed up here as i only had a 1 point stop. Just typed the wrong number in the stop loss field. I was stopped at at the 1 point, but since I meant for my stop to be a full 4 and that would have been hit as well I count it as 2nd trade -4. -4. -4 Then I took a long at 12EST. Good entry, took about 1.5 points heat. Awesome trade. 3rd trade +18, +36, +54 I tried to take another long at 1227 At 15:04 or so. There was a part of me that wanted to stop trading. A little bitch part. Always follow your rules. When they work, and when they dont. I overcame it thought and searched for my entry. However I missed the entry. Price wasn't nice enough to make it obvious. Too bad too because I would have hit all my targets with this trade as well. Need to work on my entries some more and learning to read the chart with more accuracy. This way price doesn't have to make it obvious for me to get a good entrance. It was a nice day but I missed 36 more points at the end of the day, need to fix that. I will do some more replays tonight. Anyways, for the day: +28AVG

I suppose thats a general way to put it, yes.

Did a replay of 9/16. 1st trade -4, -4, -4 2nd trade -4, -4, -4 3rd trade-no fill. I tried to short during the day and the trade was a good one, but the move happened SO quickly I couldn't get fill. I went back to make sure and there is no way I could have caught the move in real time. Sucks because it would have been a decent trade. 4th trade. +18, +11, +11 Nice long at the end of the day. 1st target hit (18 points) and almost hit the second target (36 points) but not quite. Price retraced quite a bit and I sold at the end of the day as I'm not allowed to hold positions over night, which is how I got the +11s. end of day= +5 AVG.

Not much for today. I missed the long at 1183 (tried to get too good of an entrance lol), sucks because that would have been a nice trade in the morning. Price action was pretty clean today, I should have made out like a bandit, instead i end up +0. I'm going to do some more trading via replays. Probably see if I can get through 2 days in september. Will post results. Another thing, if price drops much more I won't be able to trade, ay least for a while. I dont have any price analysis for levels lower than where we are. My data doesn't go back far enough. Stupid, I hope it rallies.

Haha yea its done now.

Yea i saw that, I'm an idiot. There's no escaping it.

Errrr yea. sorry about that. I know it makes the journal kind of useless, but I'm not really supposed to post the actual charts.

Well I've been working on this rule set for a while now, I wouldnt call this the first day. But yes relatively low accuracy with high R/R is the idea. Oh and I never move my stops. Ever.

Thanks for all the responses. Its been something thats been playing with my mind for a while. Its nice to see other's take on it. I have decided to modify my goal. Instead of saying I want X points per week, i want x points out of 5 days of trading. I was giving away my profit and that was my motivation. Instead of trying to hide from the problem, I need to find out why my profit is going away and FIX IT. But as it was said, to each his own. Its interesting to hear different perspectives, and its obviously a very subjective issuel

I've got a few more results to post from the replays. I could never have expected the outcome. The previous day's replay results do not reflect these new targets...something tells me I wish they did. Oh, and the days got skipped around a bit because I was missing data here and there. My targets are now 18, 36, and 54 NQ points. 10/9 This day was the perfect storm of Chop. It hit me where it counted and took advantage of my rules and turned them on my to chop me up. This was my first replay and lets just say after this I was...livid. Stormed around the house, wrestled my dog and came back and tested the day again with the EXACT same results. At least I know I'm being consistent lol. 1st trade: -4, -4, -4 2nd trade: -4, -4, -4 3rd trade: -4, -4, -4 4th trade: -4, -4, -4 5th trade: -4, -4, -4 6th trade: -4, -4, -4 7th trade: -4, -4, -4 8th trade: -4, -4, -4 -32AVG points Yes that just happened. I couldnt believe it. Worst day EVER. 10/13 After all that 10/13 goes by without a single trade. Good or bad, just never got an entry. The market is a weird thing. 10/14 Yes. A good day. 1 trade, 3 targets hit. That was awesome. I tried to get a screen shot of it, but the executions disappeared? Hmm. 1st trade +18, +36, +54 +36AVG points 10/15 I couldnt believe it myself. I had to double check to make sure I didn't fudge anything, but sure enough...1 trade 3 targets hit. Attached a SS of this one, just for fun, 1st trade +18, +36, +54 +36AVG. 10/16 I seriously could not believe it. My brain refused to acknowledge what just happened. But yes I hit all 3 targets AGAIN! Attached SS for fun. 1st trade +18, +36, +64 The reason my winning days only have one winner is because it usually takes so damn long for the price to move 54 points, I'm in that ONE trade most of the day...therefor no time for me to get stopped out. I went over everything and the results are real, just to great for me to expect. Im sure the same is true about shitty days too, as I saw in the first day. Coupled with my more precise entries (thanks to SB's advice), waking up on time (cost me 13AVG points last week) and a few other things= some great results. The entry adjustment was all PA based of course, so no accidental curve fitting (Im always leery of that). Anyways I look forward to next week. BRING IT NQ! Whew. I'm tired. Results for 7 days testing: +102 points :o

I, like many others have a weekly goal in my trading. Mine is based of points of the NQ. My question is this: Why do we have point goals? Is a point goal something you want to have after 5 days of trading? Or is it simply a number you want to reach? If its the latter than it make sense to stop trading when you reach your goal, even if its Tuesday morning. But then whats the difference in continuing trading the following day (after meeting your goal) and trading the next Monday? What if you find you are meeting and exceeding your goal during the week, but giving a lot of it back before the end of the week? Does it make sense to STOP trading until next week, protecting your profits so to speak? Notice I used weekly goals as an example, but the same could questions could be asked of daily, monthly, or even yearly goals. So, what the heck is a goal?

Cool glad it makes sense. Going to do a couple of replays and will post results.

The main thing is that I was going on tilt even though I know that having 4-5 losing trades in a row is possible, and even so the accuracy is only around 25%, but the R/R is huge. Now I have a more refined entry system. I've tested it and almost ALL of my entries have been improved, like you said we need to try to get the top/bottom of that swing. For some reason I was searching for the answer in volume like an idiot, when of course it was right there in price all along! This is one of the best changes I've made so far as it improved 90% of my entries by a few ticks or more, which may not seem like a lot but I missed at least 17avg points last week bc of one tick, so... I've been killing the replays this weekend and so far I've gone through 2 days of data in just 3 or 4 hours (yea I speed past the boring parts). The results have been great though, and its nice knowing that I'm not putting a positive curve on the results without knowing...as much as I try not to do that while backtesting it always seems like I am. Replay results so far: 10/8 1st trade: -4, -4, -4 2nd trade: -4, -4, -4 3rd trade : -4, -4, -4 4th trade: -4, -4, -4 5th trade +20, +20, + 32 +5 AVG 10/7 1st trade: +20, +20, +5 2nd trade: +20, +20, +5 3rd trade: -4, -4, -4 4th trade -4, -4, -4 +22 AVG If it seems weird that 2 different trades yielded the same points its because I took the same trade twice...as price made 2 very similar moves, back to back. Kinda weird. Also the fills were done on paper and were approximated on the conservative side. Lets hope I can keep it up. Will post some more replays after I finish them tomorrow.

No. If I'm down by 12 that means that all the losses on each car, added together and then divided by 3 =12. Could be I lost 12 points on each car. Or that I lost 4 on one, 10 on another and 22 on another which would be 12avg. I could do it on a 1 car basis and say I'm down 36, but then if you see that Im trading 3 cars you would think im down 36 points on 3 cars which is wrong. I know some people that do it this way and I think it can be deceptive, especially when it comes to gains. A few months ago I would look at people's journals and, taking my one good trade on monday as an example, they would say since they gained 22, 22, and 33 they made 77 points...which is correct on a one car basis but there I was trying to find this 77 point trade when really it was a 25 point trade. Hope that clears it up.

I have to disagree. I think the fundamental reasons that make PA so affective are still very much in place. The people I trade with are making boat loads in this volatility, using PA of course. While it can be more profitable for the great traders, I do think its more difficult for us beginners. As you mentioned your stops can get wiped pretty quick, but that just means you have to enter more carefully. I think this is a good market to learn in because its tough. I know quite a few people who have fled to ES only because they said it was easier, that may or may not be true, but im happy to get slammed around while Im learning. As long as I am learning, and I am. It may not look like it looking at my point totals, but I'm getting somewhere.

I consider 1 point as in 4 ticks. 980.25 to 981.25. The AVG thing is just me averaging the point gain or loss for each car, as Im trading 3. I notice some people do it on a 1 car basis which is cool too, I just tend to AVG them.