jonbig04

-3 Gosh, nice losing streak aye?

Mirus as well as Amp. Free software, free data (live). It's great!

I see. I do believe though that you can trade intraday and still have your stop protected. I enter on the pullbacks of the trend now. The majority of the time (except for 2 times last week) when I get stopped out its because trend is changing, or heavily congesting (chops been killing me lately). In other words, when I'm wrong usually I enter in such a way to where if I do get stopped out, price has to break through S or R in a major way, which in turn gives me more valuable information about where it may be going next. IMO there a quite a few ways to have your stop protected by price action. For example, (this is what I aspire to do anyway) lets say price runs into major R and an M top forms and price reverses, you could wait for it to reach a previous S level, wait for it to either break or reverse again. Assuming trend continues and it breaks through the S, you could then enter on the pull back to that level which is S, but now has flipped to R. Your stop could be well above it and therefor protected. Thats all I've been doing. Not the reversal part, but the flip scenario. To me, this is an example of a protected entry during trend. A lot of the time when I get stopped it's because my rules are too strict and the "break" of S was just a bend and its actually going to respect that level. But, for now, strict rules are necessary.

Yea, if I had to guess I would say her trades aren't high risk at all. From what I see, reversal formations can allow ultra small stops and ultra high (1:10 or much more) R/R.

Thats true, people always laugh at me for shorting the LOD or buying the HOD. IMHO accuracy is irrelevant as long as you keep your losses small and let your winners run, eg favorable R/R (which I noticed you do). The traders I look up to don't really have that high of an accuracy at all, but as you said they are disciplined and let their winners run. For me personally, to keep r/r in check I have set targets which are multiples of my stop. 3 targets each at a minimum of 4.5x, 9x, and 13.5x of my 3 point (NQ) stop, usually I play around with it and have them and key levels if I can. My accuracy was around 30%-33% last month, but this month has been tougher and it's been lower (especially this week and last week). So anyways I said all that to say, why are you looking for higher accuracy? What's wrong with the ultra low risk, high reward trades that you're doing? Have you considered adding on the pullbacks once the reversal has panned out? I'm just a noob, but I think we have some common ground in the way we trade. BTW I'm researching M tops and W's right now, where did you go to learn about them? I'm sure there are plenty of places, just wondering if you know anywhere specifically.

I would guess you place your stops in strategic areas so that you are only stopped if the reversal formation fails (and ideally price doesn't reverse). Do you play the failures of the formations at all?

I could be way off, but I think thats an M top confirmed by hump test that she mentioned.

-6 and very frustrated. I need 8 weeks straight of meeting my goal and this is week 8. Geeze market, throw me a bone.

Your system is exactly what I'm looking to add to mine. You could not be more right about having you're stop protected. I'm not swing, but I only take around 7-12 trades per week. Anyways sorry I don't have any advice, good luck!

+0, stayed out for FOMC

tough day for me today. Shorted in the AM. Was happy because I caught the small move to the tick, no heat at all, but it came back to stop me anyway. Tried a long in the afternoon. Chopped around for hours and got to +11 or so before coming back and stopping me. -6 for the day.

Indicators aren't evil, they just engender laziness IMHO. To me trading price only makes complete sense, but Im sure there are other ways to skin this trading cat. For whatever reason, all the successful traders I know understand PA first and foremost. About the 95% thing, I think that has more to do with discipline than anything else...and to me, not bothering to learning how the markets move and instead hoping you can just rely on what an indicators says is a form of non-discipline. BTW Im just a noob, and I never went through the indicator phase...at least in the traditional sense. I looked at ADX for a day or so, that quickly became pointless. The only indicators I have now are volume and a script that plots the opening range high and low. Those are indicators sure, but I could trade the same way I do now without them.

Missed log yesterday because I didn't take any trades...though not for lack of trying. I started today at -2.25 for the week, a far cry from my 15-25 point goal. It wasn't over yet though. I placed all targets at minimum R/R requirements for the first time ever. The last car was such a tough hold because I only needed it to be +14 to meet my goal. It went all the way down to +5 an back up and then back down. I so badly wanted to just close it at +14 and meet my goal, rather then have it drop and me lose this week and the last 2 weeks. But I didn't. I waited in what was the toughest hold of my life.I sold the last car near EOD, but because it looked as if 1205 as flipping to R. It didnt flip, I didnt short and I got the trade and the goal. Pulled that shit out at the last minute! Whew. What a tough week. Maybe next week will be nicer. I took a long at 10:00AM, sold near EOD. +13.5, +27, +26 +19.75 for the week Goal met for 7 weeks straight. 1 to go. Price action FTW!

Hmmmm. I've never though about trading those 2, I am looking at other options though. Thanks:cool:

I found this post on "Knowing Your System Works and then Doing It. Easier Said Than Done." interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month December, 2008"

continued from other thread: Thats so true. I have faith in my system and thats what matters. So I had some bad luck, shit happens. It's frustrating...I'm not going to lie, but at the end when i'm done throwing things and cursing, I just laugh because I know my system. I saw a post on here one time about how its impossible to maintain the correct mindset and discipline if your rules aren't working or are flawed. In my journal I noted that I thought that the BEST time to stick to your rules is when all hell is breaking loose. That's when discipline matters the most. Thanks for your example. For me, I have taken 7 trades this week and 6 have been stopped. Thats the worst its ever been, but because I followed my rules I am only down -2.25NQ. Also, 2 of those trades we're just barely stopped before the big move in my direction. That hardly ever happens, let alone 2 times in a row. But because I followed my rules I know that either one of those would have sent me WELL into the green. To me it's almost like flipping a coin. It's 50/50, but you might get heads 4 times in a row, the trick is to follow your rules so that your losses will be limited when that happens. Six losers in a row cost be 18 points, but the other week I had 2 winners in a row that netted me 50 points. Keep the R/R favorable by just following your rules! I think trading your rules helps you trust it. I trust my system because I have traded it live for a while now. I've back-tested too, but for me that doesn't compare. My faith in my rules comes from the fact that they have given me 6 goal-meeting, profitable weeks in a row. The discipline demon tries to come in and get me to not take a set up, or to exit a trade early, but now I have ammunition against him because the past weeks have shown me that following these rules are what work. I agree 100%. Follow your rules when they work. Follow them when they don't work. If you want to break them that's fine...just don't expect consistency. A lot of rule breakers out there....I would venture a guess that the vast majority of traders break their rules...say, I dont know...95% of them?

Thats so true. I have faith in my system and thats what matters. So I had some bad luck, shit happens. It's frustrating...I'm not going to lie, but at the end when i'm done throwing things and curing, I just laugh because I know my system. Will continue in other thread...

I never really thought I could have 2 big losing days in a row. I was all pissed. Well ok, I still am... but it just probabilities I guess.Today was the most frustrating day to date. I had to get very unlucky to have 6 losers in a row (today and yesterday), but i've also gotten very lucky. So F it. I followed my rules. All is fine. I am very close to my goal and I can't break or lose discipline now...I won't. I am now negative on the week, -2.25. Who cares, 2 whole trading days left. I am taking this day and officially saying. Who cares, thats trading, and moving on. its also kind of great that this week I have had 6 losers and 1 winner, and Im only slightly negative. Haha. -9 for the day NEEXXXXTTTTT!

Man I bit the big one today. Missed all of the up move as per my rules. Took a few more shots, including a short that was stopped b/c of the lunch bastards stinking the PA up. and a long that got to +10 before crapping out. 3 trades, all losers. 1 was so-so, the others were pretty precise...just not meant to be! Oh well, much more trading left in the week! -9 for the day

Shorted early in the morning, was quickly stopped -3 -3 -3 Long in the afternoon. My targets are at my discretion as long as I meet the minimum r/r requirements. My target 2 would have normally been at +30 (10x stop) but I placed it at +28 (1 point above required (9x) as 1237 was potential R. Its a good thing, price dropped like a rock from there, sold last car at EOD. +15 +28 +13.25 (18.75avg) +15.75AVG for the day.

And the whole "I win 90% of the time". That's great and congrats, but its more useful as a slogan than a measurement of how profitable anyone is. Accuracy is pretty arbitrary when it comes down to PnL, unless you are trying to appeal to people who actually think you need 90% accuracy (or anywhere near that for that matter) to make money....

I agree with the last sentence...and i don't know much about Forex, but speaking about trading in general...fundies and news are not at all necessary-this I know for a fact, and IMHO, pretty much pointless in trading futures.

I know this may seem pointless now, but try to get in the mindset of listening to what the market is telling you, then making your move...as opposed to "predicting", and then being angry when you prediction is wrong. It may seem like the same thing, but to me this mindset engenders a kind of calm, indifference that keeps a lot of emotions in check.

Nice job sticking to your rules. In the end, that's what matters.

PA only for me. Lagging indicators :thumbs down: I posted this in another thread the other day: Sometimes you will hear people say that the market is random, and it seems that way if you aren't paying attention to PA and only PA. The reason is because while the world changes all the time (eg the market isnt the same now as it was 50 years ago) the fundamentals behind PA don't change. Price is our most direct link to supply and demand. Supply and demand are fueled by 2 immutable human behaviors: fear and greed. So in essence, by trading PA you are attempting to read and anticipate the natural reoccurring human behaviors that drive the market every day. Please don't make any mistake, I am no expert...Im just a noob, but when you get into PA the market starts to make sense in so many ways, its nothing short of amazing. The random numbers on your screen start to develop an ebb and flow and I am starting to see how the market really speaks, day in and out. We don't want to be like everyone else who are out there with crystal balls trying to predict the future. We don't predict, we react to what price is telling us (or try lol) If you can learn to read this in price itself, you will be way ahead of all those lagging indicators who, to me, merely tell you what has just happened.:crap: Indicators are based on price a lot of the time. I think PA traders invented indicators simply as as shortcuts. I don't know this for sure, but I would bet traders trading PA (what else was there before indicators?) created indicators not really to show them the trades, but just as shortcuts...shortening the time it took to identify and project a concepts of PA they understood and could identify themselves if they wanted to. But now so many traders looking for the easy buck think they can simply pile on the indicators without any regard to the REAL meaning behind them. I don't think all indicators are evil, I simply think you must understand price before you attempt shortcuts and bundle up and quantify certain elements with indicators. I do, however, know for a fact you don't need them.