jonbig04

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Thats interesting, I usually enter via the 5 sec, but I will definitely check t hat out, thanks. I'm putting together like 50 of these so I can get a good idea of what works and doesn't.

looks like I've missed out on 49 net ES points in the last 3 weeks due to my crappy entries. maybe I need to fix them aye? I've decided there is probably no easy way (eg stop increases or more tries). I think I just need to become more adept at following the 5 sec chart. I've taken 22 trades in the last 3 weeks and 7 of them were within .25-1.25 points (most were 2 or 3 ticks) from the HOD or LOD. I don't think that's coincidence and I don't expect to take advantage of the whole 49ES, but obviously that many shouldn't get away. If I can nail these entries...well I think that's my final battle. I attached a pdf of the 7 LOD/HOD trades.

took some stops, using some re-entry rules hence the second try

I see your point about the equity curve. I know I would be less profitable with smaller targets, but you're right in that they aren't that far off. The reason I haven't bothered is because I have my R/R where I want it, now I just need to increase my accuracy (which hopefully will be done by better entries). Its easier for my to quantify exactly which part I need to work on, rather than just dropping my targets and R/R. To each his own though. Looking at this shitty month ( so far) entries need some help, but if I can ail them down it just might be the last thing I ever have to do lol. I mean look at the level yesterday. Or 5/15, 5/14, 5/13,5/12, and 5/3- all days where I was stopped within 2-4 ticks of the LOD or HOD. With my smallest target at 9ES, you can see why I want to better my entries on the 5-sec. If that makes sense. I appreciate the input, I really do. But I don't think that lowering r/r is the issue. I dont think my levels are the issue (though they suck sometimes), but rather I think the problem lies in the small risk (1 point stop) and nailing just the right point.

If I could maintain 20% accuracy with 9x risk, entering anywhere we wouldn't be having this conversation because I would be in tahiti on my yacht. As would you, and everyone else on earth. I think you are getting hung up on accuracy, it is only 50% of the equation! Not 60%, or 90% it is 50% of the equation that makes up your expectancy. You have to look at your r/r! this is why i created the accuracy thread. They have to be thought of in context of each other. Without both, nothing can be said. Because I'm operating with 9x risk! That was the point of my last post, accuracy becomes more and more difficult the higher your r/r is. That is why you can't look at accuracy alone. Think about it, I could drop my targets by 50% and by accuracy would double. Would that make me or my system any better? No. Once again, if I could enter anywhere and maintain 20% accuracy with 9x risk I would be RICH. Taking 90 trades a day and making millions, think about it. As far as my entry points. Are they good? Well my entries levels are good. By that I mean the 0-2.5 point area I'm entering in. Now my surgical entries at those levels AREN'T good, at thats what I have to work on.

It often seems like people attach their trading ability to accuracy. Its the whole 'being right' scenario. I could double my accuracy right now by decreasing my targets, have I gotten any better? Nope.

I see what you mean, however I think you have to look at accuracy in the context of r/r. The higher the reward, the more difficult the accuracy becomes. i see your train of thought, in that only being correct 20% -a monkey could be right 50% of the time. But all accuracies aren't equal. The reason my accuracy is so low is because i demand such high r/r, not vice-versa. A 50% average accuracy would be easy with different r/r, I simply don't take that way out because I know 35% with 8-10x reward is possible. Could you enter anywhere, in random place and achieve 20% accuracy? Of course, but with with 9x reward, no way. Think about it, if that were the case we would all be rich!

really? I would say what I do is pretty obvious haha. The places are predetermined days or weeks in advance. Actually there are only 2-4 places I can enter on any given day. Look at yesterdays chart, really what I was doing should be EXTREMELY obvious.

Yup. Entering is tough, I know I can do it though. They've cost me around 28ES in those 3 trades, but I don't expect to make all that. I expect my stop to get run and for shit to happen. I'm working and have been working on them for a while. I have implemented some new rules that took me a while to test. I had to go and find all my entries and look for clues in price/volume. What I have a set of rules that helps out with later entries. Its tough because you can't simply invent random rules that happen to give you good backtest results, they have to have a solid grounding in PA. Anyways thats what I;ve used to come up with some new rules. I still wouldn't have caught today's move, but I would have caught 10 of the 28 that I have missed, and 10ES is a good start at least. I'm also looking at my targets and possible expanding them to 10-15 ES. We'll see.

caution, the following attachment contains a long, pointless rant.

Thanks, I really fudged that R point today, but thats ok. I don't maintain 9x risk for nothin lol. Still working on the stop run analysis. yech.

Hmm I see your point, but my targets are 9-12 ES usually, thats why I use a larger time frame.

Not sure I follow you..

notes in chartttttttttttttttttttttttttt

notes in charttttttttttttttttttttttt

yup, just prior lol. I am working on this very problem now though. Bastards won't get my stops without a fight!

haha, tell me about it. No, i think you're misunderstanding. What I mean is a few times I was short, then got stopped out just under the HOD. Meaning after stopping out my short by a few ticks, the market went down for the rest of the day. click the pics to see what i mean.

Looking back at the week, I was able to catch the LOD once and I netted 10 from that. The next day my short was stopped 2 ticks below the HOD, the day after my short was stopped 1 point below the HOD, and today my short was stopped 2 ticks below the HOD. The purpose of this isn't to brag or rant, but rather recognize a weakness and try to fix it. The problem is simple. I am still getting my stop run. I cannot simply enter higher, because sometimes I miss the move by missing the fill. today for example, I missed fill on a long by 2 ticks. All of these trades would have netted me 9 ES. I don't expect to catch them all, but it seems like I should have been able to capitalize more off of them. I have developed stop-run rules that makeme more profitable, but I want to be an expert. I want to be able to know with 75% certainty when I see a stop run. I HATE the idea of having my stop run and not getting back in. What am I some loser noob who has no idea whats going on? Apparently. Bah. My work is cut out for me.

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notes are in the chart -2.5

good day, +10es missed lod by 2 ticks

finished my stop study, it works pretty well. Just another way of re-entering so no big changes there. NO trades today, this is all no mans land to me-which sucks. I'm going to study my targets. I tested everything out with static targets, but we all know they suck. my average win is 9ES, but i know with this time frame I can aim for much, much more.

This is your wake up call Buddy...get to work.