jonbig04

Saw the same setup, only I sold the breakdown pretty much where your second arrow is (as the formation confirms). Too bad it came back at eod

Thanks for the input. I'm not a big fan of indicators, though I see the logic behind the ATR one. I admit my targets aren't as refined as they should be and really I should take back the whole 10-13 things. The targets will be dependent on the anchor (larger time frame) chart. Consider what I'm looking for. I'm looking for trend continuence. Therefor if that happens, it makes sense to simply target a LL or HH of the trend I'm hoping to ride. Typically, since I'm looking at a large TF trend, a LL or HH will equal quite a few points.

Also I would like to commend you for trading while pursuing med school. I know trading, and I'm sure your classes, take up a lot of mental energy and I think its awesome you're devoting so much of it to some tough goals. Keep at it and I'm sure you will have the world in the palm of your hand at a very young age. After all, thats why we're doing all this anyway right?

Have you considered taking multiple times frames into account? I find it very helpful especially in determining levels. ps you can see what I do with my Friday nights lol :missy:

No trades thursday. Saw DT confirm at a major area on the larger TF chart. I waited to see if there was going to be any action once we broke 917.75 (DT confirmation). Sure enough, there was and I immediately shorted. Its within my rules and I think it was a great trade. Too bad price dropped an addition 6ES before bouncing all the way off of GLOW to make a higher high and stop me out lol. Oh well, shit happens. I will gladly take this kind of trade all day! Anyways only got 3 days of trading the new rules in and ended up +3.75. I'm not backtesting since its simply to pointless and discretionary. However if I had been trading with the rules the whole week, things probably would have been better, but there's no point in speculating. We'll just see what next week is like. I'm feeling pretty confident-price had to jump through hoops to stop me out today. Of course, it routinely does whatever it wants I am using opening range high/low and globex high/low. To put it simply, they are indicators. If there is a major level overnight chances are it will become glow or ghigh, same with the opening range levels. They just quanitfy and plot s/r for me, which is why they often have huge impact on price. I mean look at today's high and low.

I also need to develop overnight rules. There a good chance my target of 898 may be hit with the trend being down. Perhaps this should be my last "close at EOD" day.

Today had me pretty excited, I didn't net very much, but it was my first trade with the new rules. I could see the PA playing out and it was awesome.

Oops, don't know why i did that as PDF's.

Here are some some charts of the last few days to see more of what I'm talking about. 13.pdf 14.pdf

1. Identify major S/R levels on 100k and 30k chart. Ideally I like to see reversals and/or successful flips of these levels before I note them. This is the same thing I have been doing, with only moderate results. It's a simple thing, but levels taken from larger charts are so great to play intraday IMO. Call me a nerd but it's so cool to watch price stop on a dime at or very near a certain level that you've predetermined. Important as they are I have learned that they, alone, are not enough to meet my monthly goal of 20-30ES. 2. Identify major trend. This is done in the simplest manner using HH/HL/LH/LL etc. I don't fade the major trend unless there is a reversal confirmation on the anchor chart. 3. Once trend is determined wait for the anchor chart to retrace to major level. This is very similar to what I have been doing the past month or so, the only difference here is that I will not be fading the anchor's trend at all. 4. Move to entry chart and wait for confirmed reversal formation at that area. This is the brand new stuff to me. This formation should be against the day's trend but with the anchors trend. Pattern identification will take some time to get used to, but price rarely reverses without giving clues, those are the clues I'm looking for. I need to see these patterns confirm before I can think about entering. 5. Once confirmed, wait for pull-back for entry. The pullback has to be to a level like ORH, ORL, GLOW,GHIGH or if the reversal is a W or M, can enter on the hump flip retest. This part is not new, this is exactly what I was doing in the #AHG room and actually had very consistent monthly success with (though I think a lot of that is to do with volatility). Basically the idea is to wait for an intraday level to be taken and for price to pull back to it. This way you can get in at the end of the pullback with your stop protected. After all, that's the hard part of entering on PBs. Ideally I can enter on any pullback, but I'm not good enough to do that yet. 6. Entries will be based on chasing price or volume exhaustion if it happens. I want to see price get within 2 ticks of the level, then I will be ticks behind it and will follow it until filled. Stops will be dependent on the fill and how far I am from S/R, however they will be no more than 2 and no less than 0.75. 7. Targets are going to be nothing less than 9ES (and more like 10-13) and ideally will be dictated by the anchor chart (LLs, HHs). If a reversal formation confirms on the anchor, I can then look to the entry chart for a pull back to enter. The only time I'm allowed to enter without a pullback is if there is a very large and perfect formation on the 30k chart and price "pops" with force at the confirmation, at which point I will simply enter at market. This doesn't happen very often, but I believe when it does it signals a potentially explosive move (hence the high volume pop). Anchor=30k vol chart and 100k vol chart Entry=10k vol chart +5sec (w/volume) Basically these new rules are combining my old strategy (level flip entries) with my new one (purely s/r) with the added confluence of anchor trend and reversal patterns. Just to give credit where it's due this is all 100% AHG. Anek told me to add patterns a long time ago and I didn't listen. I feel that the patterns and their confirmation will give me the higher accuracy that I need. I am very excited about implementing the new plan as I feel it addresses what you all have been saying about my trading and is more based in sound PA. I really hope/think this is what I need to get to the next level.

Good points. Regarding a plan, I'm not going to make one that's too specific. It will depend on that day. I will be employing some of my old entry techniques to get in. This one for example. The 2 bottom legs were just below 933, which actually isn't all that strange because globex low is at 932. I know from playing globex levels (actually any sort of levels that are close) that price usually break to the extreme level, not the closest. I can see 1 of 2 potential plays, one would have worked would wouldn't have. The first is to wait for the hump to really be taken, the hump is opening range high (ORH) and we can expect R there and it could be wise to wait for some follow through above it. Once that is taken we can wait for a retrace back to it (flip), then buy it. This would have been stopped. The other play is to wait for the hump to be taken out even buy a tick (technically confirming the DB), then buy any pullback-which would have been ORL which held to the tick. The stop protection would be the ORL levels, globex levels, or major S/R that I have identified. Once I see the pattern, I still have to wait to get a good entry...if that a makes sense. Or you could try both entries. As you said, hindsight it one thing-real time is quite different.

Thanks for the input guys. Friday's DB at 933 (predetermined level)

You are exactly right. I am never using another limit ever again. :doh: Well ok maybe I will....but not very often!

So I've been doing some thinking and I've come to the conclusion that my trading just isn't good enough. Sometimes it is, sometimes its not; and that's not enough. I need more consistency. Last week wasn't horrible, but it sure wasn't great. What I'm doing now is playing the odds (which I think is what trading is about), but the odds are too sporadic with just these rules. With my high reward and the slight edge that the S/R levels give me, I'm sure I can stay profitable on a monthly basis or at least very close. That's not good enough. I'm in the red right now for this month but that could easily change with one trade, and dramatically change with 2. I don't want my trading to be like this when I know I can be better and have more control over my net. I think its time to take things to the next level. To me selling R and buying S is all we need to do, and its what I'm going to try to keep doing. I've been using the 30k vol chart for s/r and the 5 sec chart for entries. What I really need is higher accuracy without higher risk. How could I do that? Well the answer has been in the back of my mind for the last few months. And its amazing I've came this far without utilizing them. Its simply, price action patterns. Duh, right? I don't think anyone here will deny the effectiveness of the patterns. The hard part is becoming fluent in them. I really do feel, and have felt for the past few months, that I'm almost there. I'm almost a good trader, just not quite yet. Something has been eluding me and stopping me from really doing well. Perhaps I'm kidding myself, but I think this is it. I think becoming fluent in patterns and using them as further confirmations of my trades will push me to the next level. The idea is do keep doing what I'm doing, except instead of simply buying potential R and catching a falling knife all the time, I look to the 10k chart for reversal confirmation then the 5 sec for entry. Price rarely reverses without giving clues. I'm going to attempt to identify and profit off of those clues. Along with that I'm also going to try to play any reversal formations and the failure of reversal formations on the 30k chart itself, which are rare. Another area this helps is the issue of multiple S/R levels. 926 is a good example, it was a valid level, but the price made a DB below it at 923 so I scrubbed it at changed the level it 923, then we get all these great reactions at 926. This happens all the time and it was hard for me entering without confirmation because I could play them all. Using confirmation I can have more levels and hopefully catch more moves without fear of being whipsawed all the time. The formations I'm dealing with now are double tops and double bottoms. From what I've seen, price usually reverses via one of these. The variations I will be trying to play are: standard dt/db with neckline break as confirmation, dragons and inverse dragons (trendline confirmation), and 2b/2t's. The rules I'm using regarding pattern definition come straight from Suri Dudella who I think actually surfs these forums. I don't see this as changing what I'm doing, but adding to it...if that makes sense. I'm not going to sit here and pretend (as I have before) that this idea is going to make me a better trader over night. But I do think its a step in the right direction and an intro to a whole new part of PA that will only improve my trading.

Frustrating 2 days...or 2 weeks. Not going to write much right now because if I do it will just be me bitching, Anyways I want to add some new setups to the plan. I'm going to keep doing what I'm doing, but I'm also going to see if I can start entering on the pullbacks, instead of just the beginning at end of the trend. If I miss the trade then ideally I can wait and enter on a pullback. If i get stopped and price bursts through R or S then that tells me that trend is strong and I can enter on a pullback. Of course, its not that easy. this is a departure for me, usually I test and test something before i try it. I'm not going to do that because backtests mean dick anyway. Here's what I'm going to try: wait for indicator of trend strength (above), wait for pull back on 1 min chart with low vol (that's key), when I'm satisfied that it is retracing, move to 5 sec and chase it with a tight stop. We'll see if it works. Like I said, I'm still going to be doing the exact same thing, just adding some new stuff.

I would check into what Hlm suggested (its also what I do) and set price alerts near your entry zones. I personally fart around all the time, UNTIL I hear the alert chime. IMO when price is near S/R or whatever you're trading, that's when your focus should be on absolutely nothing else. To me its unrealistic to watch a chart all day, hanging on (and analyzing) every bar- that's why I set the alerts and just forget about it until they chime. I wouldn't beat yourself up too much, its an easy fix.

+5 or 0 lol hmmmmmmmmmmm

Kudos for starting the journal! I took the same short (different markets though). Price had other ideas it seems. Nice job on not chasing it.

haha dicked by 2 ticks again, nothing I could have done better though. -1 on the day, but I did everything I was supposed to.

I had one of (if not THE) worst week ever last week, finishing at -7. Yech! I have narrowed down what I think were the main factors in my shittyness: Crappy S/R. We were in new territory and the only level I had was 940, which did flip a few times and hold (giving me a false sense of security haha). However I should have recognized on 6/3 that the level was no longer valid when we reversed 7 points above it. Instead I stubbornly decided to keep playing that level when the new level continued to be impressive. I was slightly off on my other level of 927, it wouldn't have made a difference but the level should have been 923 (which I only could have known after the fact). I also have a new level in between that I didn't have until now. Anyways the crappyness came from trying to play 940 when it was so obviously INSIDE the range and not the extreme. stupid stupid, that's OK though. The problem is that I have to be careful when adjusting s/r, because even the best levels don't work all the time, and its a lack of discipline to go adjusting too often, but this week I really should have taken a step back before things got this way. Lesson learned though. I think now its going to be a matter of picking good S/R (and making necessary adjustments), and making better entries. I have no magic numbers or silver bullets to help me. Just more screen time. I need to be able to recognize patterns on the 5 sec more quickly, and to realize when the market is telling me that I'm wrong. There's no short cuts. Anyways I'm not too bummed, one good trade will more than take care of all the losses (which is a pysche benefit of large r/r ) New levels are 947, 933.25, 923

Interesting DB, looks like the market as a whole is at a very important area. The January high of the S&P was right around 940, which is just under where the current rally has stalled a bit. We did have that spike up to 957 on globex, but clearly demand wasn't there as it quickly dropped back into the 933-947 range. Considering the time frame, I think its safe to say that the whole 940 area is potentially very powerful resistance. I'm not one for "calls" or predictions, but if I had to say I would think that this area presents possibly the most significant area of resistance in a long time and I wouldn't be surprised to see it break down a bit, especially with the (as you've showed) market-wide confluence.

I doubt I can add much to what has already been said, but anyways... To me, everything between my S/R is chop and I don't trade it because I'm not good enough. Now that "chop" may be another's PA wet dream, but its all relative. I look at a larger time frame chart and attempt to find the key S/R level in that chart. If I've done my job, then chop is of little concern. Price can do whatever it wants to between those areas and I simply don't care. I save my attention for when it arrives. Since these levels are built off of a larger time frame, they are more likely to be respected...in other words, the market (providing your level is good) won't chop your level all to hell-which is more than even the best intraday* developed s/r can say for itself. I used to trade intraday and my levels would always get chopped to hell. So, to me, using a larger time frame helps with the chop. I only zoom in (5 sec) when I'm trying to enter. *I realize that all levels are created intraday at some point, but I'm talking about levels that are noticed and taken account for by looking at days or weeks of data, as opposed to a few hours worth.

I nominated BFs post because I believe he did a great job in succinctly explaining, but not over simplifying it. I know this couldn't really be tested, but I wonder if there is a correlation between how much you know about trading, and how well you actually trade. I bet there isn't. I would guess that out of all the great traders out there, some of them are avid chartists, and some of them are just following a simple plan. I think one of the many pitfalls in trading is becoming to enamored with the analysis, caught up on working so hard and...well, over thinking it until it become harder than it should be and thus making success all the more elusive. I know a certain person (haha if he reads this he will know) that will say: "sellers are having to auction the lower side in order to find adequate buying interest", instead of saying "oh yea price dropped". Not that that matters, but I do think we spend so much time working hard and so much time marveling at how difficult trading can be that we forget that we can do it. We build it up to this monumental task achieved by only a few elite, chosen ones; that we make it harder on ourselves. Just my opinion.

I found this post on "Re: What Made You Profitable?" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month June, 2009"

lmao, yea yea :sleep: