jonbig04

Great point Head, I was going to mention it as well. To me a chase entry is when you deviate from your plan because you're afraid you've missed or are going to miss something. Late entries on breakouts, providing they are planned and part of your rules, can do well. IMO they are two different things.

IMO anytime you feel like you are afraid you are going to miss something, recognize that emotion and put it in its place. If necessary ask yourself before each trade whether you are under that state of mind or not.

What a weird week. I learned a few things. One is that I need to begin working on more setups. I only got to take one trade this week because neither of my setups happened save monday morning. Luckily the one trade I had netted me 10ES, so thats cool. But looking back (and this probably wont apply to anything I'm doing for a while) but the trade I took had so much confluence on so many time frames (including that of a big ass W), 10ES really is kinda a small chunk of the overall trend that developed. I now see why anek and some other people hold trades swing. I exited at 10 because that was my target, but really with confluence galore and price on a tear, I had no reason to exit with only 10. Don't get me wrong, I'm satisfied with 10, but now I see how people are able to catch massive trades. IMO that was a situation where a more experienced trader would have known that it wasn't just a breakout on a small TF, but the W confirming showed a huge breakout (like the one that happened) was possible. It's not about greed, but now I know that when there is that much confluence ESPECIALLY on large TFs, it may be time to really shoot for a big ass target (20+ES). But for now I'll stick to what I'm doing. The next thing I'm going to work on is anticipating the DBs and DTs. Or test 1 trades. These are the ones I was doing exclusively last month. I know now that simply selling or buying level blindly isn't enough to net me my goal, but I also see that its possible to catch the reversal to the point. For example the DB at 866 or the DT at 884. I had those levels in advance. Look at 940, I've had that one since JANUARY! Price touched it, broke by a point and then retreated 12ES. In the last week alone price has been rejected (that means to me bounced off of it by at least 10 ES) at predetermined levels 5 times (and one in AH). 3 times the level broke by less than 0.75ES the other 2 times it broke by 1.25ES. What I do know is that even if I had played all of these, it would be very hard on my net because so many times they don't hold, or don't hold by enough, get broke etc. So how can I weed out the bad tests with the one that are more likely to succeed? That is the rub. One possible way would be to anticipate the second leg of a pattern. for examply, don't fade a level unless the last time price touched it, it was rejected. And that was only 8 hours ago or a day ago or something to show it to be a potential DT or DB. That may not work, but something along those lines.

There is always the replay function. Set ninja to record the day and when you get home, just press play and trade normally. I believe freestockcharts.com offers free streaming charts. It's not ninja but IMHO you could plot price with a pencil and graph paper and not be at any real disadvantage regarding learning about price movement, which is of course what we're all trying to do. Everything else is extra. just my 2 cents

Note: these forseight charts aren't predictions as much as they are maps of what I'm looking for. Price usually does something else. Sometimes it does what I draw and I still don't catch the trade lol.

Oh its no big deal, if thats another pattern then I would love to learn. My earlier post was my opinion, nothing more. I'm sure better traders would have other opinions. I would be interested to see different takes on PA. Everything is welcome!

Thanks for the chart imorgan. I want to disclose again that I am NO expert and you should take all of this with a grain of salt. I am simply going to explain what I would personally do, or see. The first point I want to make is that I wouldn't consider this a DB. I use Suri Dudella's definition(s). The main reason I wouldn't consider this a DB is because we aren't in a down trend. The idea behind a reversal formation is trend change, not trend continuance. Of course "trend" can be defined a million different ways and they could all be correct, but looking at this chart in particular, I think we can all agree that trend is up. If I was trading this I would zoom in on the spots I highlighted (if these were major S/R levels that I already had marked) and look for double bottoms there on a smaller time frame. From a smaller time frame each leg of this pattern would be a downtrend and thus we would be looking for a DB on that chart to enter and ideally ride this larger term trend. This is what I tried to do today, but price didn't give me clear DB signal at the 926 area. The second point I would like to make is that this looks more like a double top (DT). For me personally, my patterns have to occur at major areas. The peaks should be at major areas and so should the mid points (hump). For chart's sake lets assume I had 930 as major R (I actually had 926, which is way I didn't trade this. For me 926 R had been broken so I wasn't thinking 'short' at all, still looks bullish). But if I did have 930:

OK here goes, now I can go to F'ing sleep.

Geeze what to do. Looks like we finally reached some R albeit above my level. Im unsure what I can do up here. I'm just going to wait until tomorrow to see what globex does. This crazyness is wreaking havoc on my charts.

As promised its time to analyze the PA after our very large W bottom confirmed (note the confirmation happened when price broke 884). So here goes: This is on a smaller TF (100k CVB), but since our W confirmed what has price done? Well in short its rallied almost 50 points in 2 days. The only complaint would be that the rally has been so furious an entry might be difficult to gain, but that's entirely dependent on your particular entrance strategy. I personally view patterns as a way to figure out which direction price is headed (with the added confluence of major S/R levels), so in that area this W has been pretty damn impressive. Other than that, until (and if) price gets back to 898 or 884 I guess we can leave this pattern alone. IHMO it did its job pretty well. I will continue to post patterns as I find them.

Frustratingly, again no trades. The market is on a tear.

What an ugly day. No trades for me. Price chopped up my 898 level, but its all I have to go by so I'll leave it there until something better shows up. My 909 level was always taken by a few points in AH trading. Grr. I guess I'll just wait for a PB to 898 and see if we get some bottoming action there on the intraday chart. Or if the market stays up here and forms any kind of DT and stays far enough way from 898 to have a decent target I will take the short. I would say trend is up now, and then there's that big ass W with bottoms at 866 and a mid at 884.

Great stuff Thales! When will she be taking customers for her fund? Haha

It may be just me, but it seems that for such a PA oriented community (for the most part) there really isn't that much discussion here about patterns. Since there are about a zillion, I would like to keep this thread focused on the double bottom and double top. There's quite a few variations of these two patterns and they seem to happen quite a bit, on all different time frames. Rather than only explaining what a double bottom is, since I'm sure we already know, it would be great if those interested could post examples of patterns they are watching or trading. I want to make clear that I am no expert. I just started implementing these a few weeks ago, but already I feel I have a better understanding where price may go. I noticed that SuriNotes posts in here every now and then, it would be great if he stopped by to show us the ropes. It would be great if we could point out some patterns that are forming now, but maybe haven't confirmed or have just recently confirmed. This way we aren't stuck on a bunch of hindsight analysis and can actually describe patterns now, in foresight and we can see what happens in time. I for one have had it up to here with hindsight analysis. So here goes. When it comes to longer term analysis my mind tends to want to go off the PA track. :doh: However the pattern that was confirmed today probably shouldn't be ignored. ES confirmed a very large W bottom today by breaking the mid point at 884. Long term trend (hourly chart) in my view is down. Sellers have been flipping support to resistance like nobody's business, but to me this is bullish. Sellers have broken established R with a vengeance. The great thing about this pattern is that if it works, it signals the start of a whole new trend! There will be all kinds of pullbacks to buy potentially as this is just the beginning. And if it fails, we can trade that too! This is a 150k CVB chart, so we are talking about a large pattern, and potentially large reversal here and possibly some significant upside. I would anticipate a possible retest of the midpoint of 884 from the other side, but thats beside the point. We have a confirmed pattern and we can all watch to see how it plays out. I would like to point out something important that I don't see many people talk about and that is simply that the failure of this pattern should provide us with just as much information as the confirmation did. In my view, that would happen if price takes 866. I would be just as happen to take that trade as I would be to take long today when it confirmed. So now we can watch and wait. I will update this thread every few days with price's progress relative to this pattern. It would be great to see some more DBs or DTs. The W and M are just 2 types. I've seen the 2b/2t variation, the dragon which confirms via trendline, adam-eve etc etc. Also feel free to post whatever time frame you would like. I personally see great stuff on the 30k CVB and intraday charts. I posted this one because it seemed like a big deal potentially.If no one is interest I guess the thread will die out on the vine, but I think we can all learn something from these reliable, reoccurring patterns.

Gotta love it when the market does what you want, because it seldom does haha. Personal note: since people have been asking, I suppose it matters. Yes I'm trading real money. I don't see what the big deal is, I'm not trading 300 cars. I haven't noticed any difference at all in trading real vs sim except for the box that says my account number instead of sim. All the executions, sounds etc are the same.

Come on lets get some feedback!

Ok market, lets move! [/img] Oops by mistake I meant of course selling S or buying R..hehe

I'm running dual monitors on my mac w/parallels. Its funny, I use to be able to stretch window's programs across both monitors. Now I can't. I read up and apparently its not possible at all. Haha don't know why it used to work for me then suddenly stopped. But all other OSX programs can be stretch across both screens easily.

Ignore feature works well. No trades for me today, PA looked sloppy all day pretty much (to me). I'm still hoping to get in on a break down of the key levels of 866, or a break up at 884. Nothing much else to say.

Thats true. Selling the extreme R and buying the extreme S was all I did last month, but it wasn't good enough. It just so happens that it would have netted like 18ES today lol. Price was in the middle of that particular range. Its what I gave up to let the double bottom form. I was surpised when it didn't continue to the top of the range after making that DB. I wouldn't have been surprised if the trade didn't work due to rejection at the top, but the trend I was looking at wasn't the trend of that day, its the trend of the last 2 days. the midpoint test entry was my attempt to try to catch a ride on that trend. In looking at that larger trend you'll see that the distance my trade was from the bottom of the range is small compared to the size of the bigger trend, so in a sense I was, or would have been at an extreme area... or thats the idea anyway. Anyways, shit didn't work lol.

Tell me about it! I feel like the gap is slowly closing. I'm trying to chart my trades for the next day beforehand too, which hopefully helps.

Gosh I hate it. It seems to obvious on days like today, but when I try it, it doesn't work lol.