jonbig04

Coincidentally, I just started a political philosophy online class offered by Yale. Granted, you don't get "credit" for taking it, but having read the Platonic dialogues many times and I thought I understood them well...until I started listening to the lectures on them. The professor does a great job pointing you in the direction Plato is going, without forcing his opinions down your throat. For anyone who is interested: It's located here : Political Science — Open Yale Courses Also, I have been in touch with the professor and was able to get the writing assignments for the class. Let me know if you want them. Back to ES. For me the 15 min chart seems to require too large of a stop, as the waves are larger. On the other hand, the 5 min chart's waves aren't as significant. I try to get around this by using a larger time frame for my primary analysis, that way the 5 min chart is just entry and further confirmation. My primary reason for thinking short is because we are at a major R level and are retesting the hump of a double top. Now we have already seen some rejection from the R area of 1095 and the further confirmation is a LH and a LL (if it happens and I get fill). So my train of thought, for better or worse says "ok We are in a down trend because a double top confirmed, price just pulled back to major R where there is a good chance of rejection. Now price is making a LH and a LL (potentially)."

I did like Gabe's entry, I personally just wouldn't have taken it b/c of the stop requirement. But IMO it would have been valid entry that simply didn't work out. I have to admit that I can quite figure out your entry as price had yet to make a LL. My main problem though is that it looks like you want to take some profit at +1.25ES on a trade that requires a 1.25ES stop. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but for me personally I don't even move my stop to BE until around +5 ES (ideally around an area where price might reverse against me) and my smallest profit target is around 10ES with a max stop of around 2ES. And with the exception of the move to BE, I don't scale or trail. To me profit targets that small would need a much smaller time frame.

Requires too large of a stop for me.

Thales, I was wondering what you thought about this potential short. The biggest problem I have with it is R/R, but leaving that aside for now. I drew some purple bars in there to show what I'm looking for price to do before entry.

What he posted is a zoomed-out view of what I posted just before. Nice to know I'm not the only one looking at it. I just called the pattern a double top. I guess it could be called a number of things, but IMO that's not important. Could it be the "second leg of the bear market", yea I suppose. I haven't seen very many double tops on the daily time frame. But that's just speculation. The important thing to focus on IMO is that on a large time frame the market, which is in an up trend, just failed to make a higher high. And upon confirmation (which happened just after I posted the pattern), just made a lower-low. The likes of which haven't happened in a month or so. Because of this I no longer consider this time frame to be in an up trend. Thats what reversal formations do. So too ignore the pattern, to me, would be to ignore the trend. The great thing is that if it fails, it still gives you as much information (and trading opportunities) as if it had confirmed and played out. For example, if this spike up doesn't turn into a LH and price rallies, it will have to break through the 1111 area to continue upwards. That could give rise to a nice break out to the upside, just like the confirmation of this pattern gave rise to a nice BO to the downside last night when the 1083 area was taken. I wouldn't consider the second leg a LH. Though it technically is, only by like 1.5 points. That's not very much when you're talking about 30 point legs. If price stalls out where it is now at the 1095 area and then continues to make a LL we will have Thales setup, just on a massive time frame:

Well reached the S at 72. That was the most expensive turkey sandwich I've ever had. It was good though.

This is why on breakouts I don't usually wait for a PB So why didn't get in? I was waiting around all day for the S at 82.75 to break down. I literally left my computer to make a turkey sandwich. Seriously! During the time I was gone, the Bo happened and I missed it. lol! That's 2 now that i've missed. Now I have to hope for a PB. :crap::crap::crap::crap:

Will try to get this done as quick as possible because I want to watch my broncos. There has been a significant addition to my trading. Basically, I have added what Thales does to what I already do. I think this might be the missing link to my trading. My goal is +20ES a month. With the exception of this month (I'm not positive, but I think I'm only up single digits), I have been coming fairly close. Hopefully this additional information in the form of HHs, HLs, LHs, and LLs will put me on the path to netting 20ES per month no matter what. The main difference between what I do and what I see Thales doing is that I'm usuing the S/R as my primary reasoning for a trade and the HH, LLs etc are just additional confirmation (hence I use a 5 min chart while Thales uses a 15 in chart I believe). If you remember I changed my entry method a few weeks ago to allow for more confirmation, basically I am just taking that to the next step. Once price reaches major S or R I now wait for the following to happen: Also, here is the trade I missed last night b/c I was asleep: Here is something else that may be important. The S&P could be in for a rough time in the next couple weeks.

I don't mean to jack this thread at all because I know everyone is trying to learn from Thales, but since swing trading was suggested I thought I should post this, as it may turn out to be important.

No problem, I'm not one of those thread nazis haha. Gonna keep this short for now. Hit a large trade last night for +11.5ES, and actually would have the break down to 1082.75 too if I had been awake or aware that the damn market was open today. I'm an idiot. As you can see from my above post, my entry would have been at 92 with a target of 82.75 which actually wouldn't have filled just yet. Kind of frustrating as last night could have been a +20ES night. Oh well though. I'll post details later. For now, here's the trade.

Thanks, Just happened to get a good one in on the first try. Congrats on that larger winner of yours also. I'm a little frustrated bc I thought the markets were closed today. I had a short in place for the break down to 1082 and figured I could do it tonight or tomorrow. But alas the market was open and I missed it. The trigger would have been the lower-low at 1092 with a target at 1082.75. I was already up late with the other trade. It seems there's no rest in this business haha. As Thales mentioned, if you are struggling I would look over those ultra-simple diagrams I drew. When I was in #AHG we had dozens of those things and they always helped me visualize the trade. To be honest it seems like some here are over-thinking the concept.

Well Thales maybe it's a good sign. The first time I employ your strategy and I hit a monster. A monster for me at least. 1:7 R/R on that one, good stuff. That will at least staunch the blood flow for the month. +11.5ES

Haha, really? :doh:

short.

That's true. But I'm sure I will find one that works well with my targets and stops, which may have to be adjusted with a huge increase/decrease in volatility.

If it's any consolation MK, November has been my worst month ever. Been getting owned left and right. Been doing decently the last few months, but this month was a blood bath. Granted I can make it all up with 1 good trade, but still. To me it all depends on how you see it. If you simply followed that plan to a T it may be difficult. Seems to me you have to take into account where price is in the larger scheme of things and the LH, LL or HH, HL have to be significant "full moves"-which seems difficult to quantify. But thats where I think Thales saying "look with your eyes, not your head" comes in. The chart I posted today may be an example, even though its only a 30 second chart there is a fairly clean drop from the major resistance level, then price tried to retest the high but is quickly rejected. Even looking at the candle-it closed way off its high, making a lower-high. Then it sat there, and sat there, and sat there at the low tick before breaking down into a lower low. I personally am trying to determine what time frame to apply it. To big and you could end up missing moves, too small and you get whipsawed to death.

I agree, low vol pullbacks are straight out of Wyckoff. Though I've always had trouble quantifying the concept. The BO's I look for are BO's on a large time frame, usually 30kCVB ES. You could enter on a PB, if one happens. I prefer to try to get in when it starts to break out. You're right, the 5 sec is a bit fast. I'm actually switching to the 30 sec for my other trades, but I like it for the BO's bc it is like tape. You want to see buyers or sellers get pounded relentlessly-which shows up as a bunch of HHs or LL on the 5 sec w/ vol expansion. A good example of this is in thales thread today, someone posted a chart of oil's BO to the upside. If you look at it you will see why I tend not to wait for the PBs in that particular scenario.

Had I been in the trade I would have been out BE right now at 1109.5. What I am trying to do is use your method as confluence. A few months ago, I would have just placed a limit short at 1111 and watched and waited. Coincidentally, this would have worked out this time, but I found I needed more confluence than just simply short/buying major areas. That is when I began to look a t the 5 sec chart for various things. My reasons for this trade would have been that 1111 is major resistance + the LH and LL=sell short. But FWIW I would have been knocked out BE as my target of 1099 was never hit.

Just want to make sure I understand what Thales is doing. I had R marked off at 1111 today on ES. We had a short opportunity there, and I annotated this chart in hindsight based on how I think you all are entering. Just want to make sure I have the concept down.

Oh sorry, about the break out setups. You are right, sometimes (about 25% of the time it seems) price does flip the level before continuing downward. The majority of the time though price has enough momo to just go and never look back. If I were to wait for the PB I would miss the majority of the BOs (keep in mind these are larger time frame BO's and my targets are no less than 10-12 ES). With this in mind, typically I just get in on market and wait for the momo to carry me along. But the last two times the setup occurred, that didn't work and waiting for the flip would have been the way to go. two missed trades is around 20ES net to me, so naturally I started to look and here's what I'm going to do on that particular set up: enter aggressively as soon as it starts to break out even a little. This entry will be in case the momo kicks in. If so I will be along for the ride. If momo doesn't come and price just lies there, I exit (usually for a loss of 2-3 ticks). I then wait to see if it flips the level and enter there, or enter when it makes a HH or LL. This will enable me to catch the rapid break out as well as the ones that want to retest before they break down.

I use a 5 sec and a 10k CVB chart, but i haven't been taking advantage of them as much as a should. I'm not sure if you saw, but I am going to join thales thread and try to work in what he does into my trading. I'm not going to over-haul everything. I don't think the money made over the past 4 months has been luck, but I'm getting hosed this month and would like a smoother equity curve and over all more consistency.

Hola traders! I thought it was about time for me to join in all the fun. I am a PA only trader as well and would like a smoother equity curve and just overall all more consistency in my trading. I think Thales' method will help me out quite a bit, as it has already helped many of you. As of now I really don't put all that much wait on the HH's and HL's etc and I see that I am missing a big chunk of what PA has to give me. I'm hoping to combine Thales' analysis to what I already do to become a better trader. My trading will likely still be a little different than everyone else's here, but we are all essentially looking for the same things, right? I also trade ES exclusively for now, but have been keeping my eye on USD/JPY (don't hate me). Anyway I've attached some diagrams that outline what Thales has already said, but these kinds of things are helpful to me and may be to anyone else still unclear about what to do. I have a journal here on TL as well and will be duplicating my posts here to that journal. I started it back when I really didn't even know what a HH was, so I like to keep it going somewhat. Yes, I realize these could have been drawn by a 7 year old with a crayon, but that's the beauty of it!

I spent some time with Anek in #AHG. It's PA with a little bit of volume (mostly for divergence). It's comparable to what Thales does in that it's very simple and is based on price. As of now everything I do comes straight from what I learned from Anek.

kinda annoying bc i've been planning on this break down for a few days and wasn't able to capitalize, but I think I;ve made the necessary adjustments. Also working on some intraday stuff.

Thanks guy. I will be pulling up charts of all kinds tonight to see if I can't find something I want to start following.