rollotape9

Hello all, I have posted the updated portfolio that only has 2 trades as of now. The portfolio is down a little under 1.5%. The markets are currently in a little trading range with support in the 875-880 zone in the SnP and 1665 zone in the NASDAQ. I will be watching very closely the price/volume behavior at these areas to determine if another shorting opportunity occurs or if a spring occurs which will offer a buying opportunity. Best of success to all, rollotape Traders Laboratory portfolio 052209.xls

Closing the SDS position at $59.25. Rollotape

Thanks erie for the nice charts. If we get a demand bar on Monday, I will be looking to buy. But, the market has to prove to me that buyers are willing to jump into this market with force. They did not prove it on Friday but Monday is another day. Best of success to you, Rollotape

Hello everyone, I have attached the updated portfolio with this week's new trade. To be honest, I don't like the action on Friday despite the SnP falling. The decreased volume and the little spring that occurred after the SnP tried to break Wednesday's low makes the SnP vulnerable to a rally on Monday. If a downtrend on the hourly chart is really beginning right now, the spring should fail on Monday. I will be watching closely to the intraday action and may even consider scratching the trade to reposition myself at a more favorable price. In a perfect world, a reaction from the Ice/Support level that was recently broken should have wide spread bars and increased volume. We did not get that type of action on Friday. Now, the market could just trade sideways over the next day or two as sellers absorb the buyers before the downtrend resumes in earnest. In the world of the hard right edge, considering a couple of scenarios beforehand is a good idea so we will have a plan of action already scripted so that we can take our emotions out of the equation. Rollotape Rollotape Traders Laboratory portfolio 051509.xls

Hello Blowfish, I chose to short the SnP over the other major indexes due to its relative weakness compared to the other indexes. Shorting relative weakness and buying relative strength is an essential element to the Wyckoff methodology. When I short the market, I prefer using the higher leveraged ETFs as my trading vehicle. I used to short individual stocks, but because more and more ETFs have come to market and these ETFs are becoming more liquid, I just mainly focus on them. Have a good weekend, Rollotape

Hello Dbphoenix and brownsfan, Relax and smile. I mentioned the past long trades to only give people a sense of how this portfolio will work. I got the impression that people were expecting that this portfolio was going to make trades every day so I thought it was important for everyone that reads my posts to understand that I am been liquidating long trades over the past couple of weeks as I was beginning to see not only my individual stocks break down but also an important turning point coming in the major market indexes. Therefore, I am in a transition phase going from net long to net short. This transition phase didn't just start today. It started a couple of weeks ago as I judged that a turning point was coming then. As many of you know, I was wrong about that turning point. I may be wrong this time as well. I don't worry about being right or wrong. I am much more concerned whether or not I am consistenly following my rules based on the Wyckoff methodology with patience and discipline. If the market is still heading to higher highs or the next selling wave fails to make much downside progress and I see individual stocks moving into Wyckoff buying positions, I won't mind at all to begin buying stocks again. Best of success to you, Rollotape

Hello Firewalker, The comments on the attached hourly SPY chart details my reasoning behind today's trade. The number of trades I may personally make per month can range from 2-3 trades to as much as 20-30 trades. I am not one of those traders that must trade every day or even every week and I also haven't posted all of my personal trades here. My goal here is to grow this $50,000 portfolio by posting real-time trades using the Wyckoff methodology to try to catch the important turning points in the market at important support/resistance areas on within a trend. However, I will admit that I don't do nearly as well on the short side as I do on the long side from viewing my own extensive trading records. Best of success to you, Rollotape

Let's try this again. Buy 200 shares SDS at $60.13 with a stop placed at $57.45. Rollotape

Hi everyone, Today's action in the market puts the market in a very vulnerable position to begin a more significant selling wave than we have seen since the March low. A weak rally to the minor 900 Ice level will indicate to me that an important turning point has been confirmed. I originally though that we were going to get the turning point a couple of weeks ago hence the short trade posted here. Wyckoff, himself, often mentioned that the turning points are where low risk trades are made. Our ability to identify them, especially the more important ones, are important in trading the Wyckoff method with some success. I have sold all of my longs established weeks ago except for one which will probably end up being a loss. My plan will be to short Upthrusts and test of Upthrusts on a weak rally into resistance areas like the 900 area in the SnP for example. I would actually like to see the selling wave stay above 800which is just above the 1/2 point, which is important to Wyckoff in judging the strength/weakness of a potential developing uptrend on the weekly chart. I will post the short trades as they occur in the coming days. I may get an opportunity as early as tomorrow to begin shorting the market. I will post the updated portfolio this weekend. Right now, it only shows 1 trade with a loss. Best of success to all, Rollotape

Hi everyone, Today was kind of a boring day which is good in order to confirm the potential breakout or JAC. My plan will be to look to get positioned in relatively strong stocks on a weak reaction to a support zone. I would need to see heavy supply enter the market that negates the action from Monday to get me to look to short the market again. As Wyckoff himself suggested, we just need to let the action of the market be our guide. Rollotape

Hi Eiger, Yes, I am a big fan of the Evans tapes. I am also a big fan of the George King tapes. Rollotape

Hi sevensa, To hopefully make this $50,000 portfolio grow as everyone follows both the winning and losing trades in real-time. Rollotape

Hi everyone, I guess the moderators of the Wyckoff forum believe that trading using the Wyckoff method should not be posted in the Wyckoff forum. Go figure. I guess I will be setting up camp here to continue the abbreviated portion of the Wyckoff newsletter. For traders who are interested in following this newsletter can begin with the Bob's Adaption thread posted in the Wyckoff forum that was closed and then continue to this forum. Sorry for the disruption, Rollotape

Hi everyone, The attached spreadsheet is how this newsletter will track all real-time trades. I hope everyone likes how it is presented. If you don't, too bad. Rollotape Traders Laboratory portfolio 050109.xls

Hi Blowfish, I am glad you like the charts. The hard right edge is where I live. Rollotape

Hi Dbphoenix, I apologize for opening up a can of worms. Can we compromise and retitle this thread the "Wyckoff/Evans Newsletter"? Although I used some terms that you correctly pointed out originated from Bob Evans, the analysis is still Wyckoff. Bob Evans merely came up with some terms to help him describe market action that was taught by Wyckoff. As you know, the effort vs. result principle is not a Bob Evans principle. Also using the principle of selecting stocks based on relative strength/weakness is not a Bob Evans principle either. Future stock charts to this newsletter will show this Wyckoff principle at work. I will also be glad to show my swing charts in future charts since we both know that comparing alternating buying/selling waves to determine the strength/weakness of a trend, was part of the foundation of Wyckoff. Thanks for understanding in advance, Rollotape

Hi firewalker, Wyckoff, himself, would analyze the message of the market from individual bars at certain times. We get a pretty good idea of how Wyckoff analyzed a market in this way from Section 7 of the Wyckoff course which I believe is posted on this forum. This section is one of my favorite in the Wyckoff course. My method of trading is totally Wyckoff based even though I may use terms originated by Bob Evans like creek, ice, springs, one-eyed Joes, jump across the creek, break under ice, among others to describe market action that Dbphoenix correctly pointed out. I used the terms because I figured everyone here was familiar with them. I did not mean to confuse anyone with the use of these terms so I want to apologize to all readers and to the moderators of this forum for using them. I just figured it was simpler to describe market action in this way. I could have just as easily said that the minor buying waves were showing a shortening of upward thrust as Eiger pointed out in his analysis as the SnP approached an important resistance area from late January/early February. The SnP marginally rallied above this resistance area and a minor resistance area of a little upward wedging trading range moving into an apex position but was unable to provide upside follow-through as supply overcame demand leaving behind a potential upthrust (Wyckoff did use this term in his original writings). The effort vs. result principle that I mentioned in my original analysis is a Wyckoff principle and not a Bob Evans principle. All Bob Evans did was come along and create some terms to help him better understand and describe the market actions that Wyckoff taught. Once again, I want to express my sincere apologies for any confusion. Rollotape

Hi Eiger, I love your PnF chart. I have posted my SnP cash PnF chart of the potential downside objective of 780 using a 10 x 1 chart if this Upthrust leads to an important reaction. It is interesting that this downside objective goes to about the 1/2 point of the entire move from the March low and is where the minor support from the end of March is located. Also, I love your use of swing lines on one of your other charts. Very few people realize that Wyckoff, himself, would look at charts in this manner. I use swing lines on my charts as well to help me to objectively determine the trend, which as you know according to Wyckoff is the most important thing to know. Rollotape

Hello Dbphoenix and all, The 2 attached SnP daily and SPY hourly charts show the Wyckoff behind the trade. The trades in this portfolio will basically be springs and tests of springs in a smaller timeframe chart with the uptrend and/or at important support on a larger timeframe chart and be upthrusts and tests of upthrusts in a smaller timeframce chart with the downtrend and/or at important resistance on a larger timeframe chart. My favorite trades are a smaller timeframe spring or test of spring when the larger timeframe chart is backing up to creek after a strong potential jump across the creek or a smaller timeframe upthrust or test of upthrust when the larger timeframe chart is rallying to ice after a strong potential break under ice. My rules based on the Wyckoff method are really simple. I will send the portfolio summary this weekend which so far only has 1 trade in it but there will be many more. Rollotape

Hello all, 1st trade, buy 200 shares of SDS at 64.10, stop at 61.40.

Hello brownsfan019, I don't think you will be disappointed. I will be keeping a updated portfolio and posting it to this thread as trades are made. Everyone will be able to see, without confusion, how much this portfolio is making/losing. Rollotape

Hello Hakuna, I will be trading ETFs and individual stocks. Yes, the trades will be posted here. Rollotape

Hello firewalker, Thanks for the suggestion but I think I will stick with this format. The posts will be time stamped and people will have the opportunity to review the trades if they want anytime in the future. Best of trading to you, Rollotape

Hello all, My money management rules for the $50,000 portfolio will be as follows: Establish 4 positions with $12,500 allocated to each. This rule is flexible based on market conditions and risk parameters per trade. In a rip-roaring bull market, this portfolio will go on margin allocating as much as $25,000 per position. The portfolio will risk no more than 2.5% of the capital per trade ($1,250) and will risk no more than 10% of the capital on all positions. The objective of the portfolio is to take trades that offer at least a 2:1 but preferrably a 3:1 or higher risk:reward ratio as Wyckoff suggests based on PnF counts. I believe I covered it all. Rollotape