TinGull

Insightful. I'd been trading for over a year now and have a good idea of what my intra-day style is turning out to be....good to hear your words, James. Thanks

I've been trying to figure out exactly what a mentor does, lately. Are they there mostly to answer your questions about trading? Or do they do a lot of the asking? Do they show you how they do it and have you replicate? Or you show them what you do and they tell you how you can make it better? I'm more curious than anything as to what a trading mentor would do for someone to up their game. Thanks to anyone who can shed some light. Chris

Well, I spent a year trading options before I went at it full time, and at that point I had a stash of cash that I could do it with, and my partner still works her job, so we have some income coming in while the account grows and my confidence in my system grows. I wouldn't go full time if I didn't have 6-12 months living expenses stashed away and I was living alone. Fortunately I had enough for myself and with my partner working...it's all golden. I can do it at my leisure with the eMinis. So...I was scared S-less quitting my cushy job selling music gear. BUT, it was the best thing I ever did. I hate corporate america (corporate anything I guess, since most of this forum seems to be out of country) more than anything and am glad to be on my own. It can get tough, eating less than I normally would or whatever, but I wouldn't trade it for the world. Hope that helps, though, I don't know if it does....

You know I'll be there....can't get enough.

Same here. I got a demo account with OANDA and it's rockin.

openings are fun! Gap fades are nice to do when the conditions are right, and I would much rather play the opening than wait until 3pm to make a trade. For institutional money at the open....I don't think it's really happening at the open. Mostly retail, I would imagine.

Once again, Raul, THANKS!!!!

Welcome! You have entered [Trading Room] at 1:16 pm [] 1:16 pm: ok..do me a favor and draw a line at the high and low of that bar and tell me the price in both [TinGull] 1:16 pm: g'day folks [] 1:17 pm: hello Tin [] 1:17 pm: hey Tin, okay I have a high of 774.50 and a low of 770.40 [TinGull] 1:17 pm: you doing a seminar Raul? [TinGull] 1:18 pm: ok [Trading Room]: has left at 1:18 pm [] 1:18 pm: I don't know if thIS is a seminar...I am telling Paul how I trade LOL [TinGull] 1:19 pm: oh, yea...PM me the talk thus far if someone might Very interested [] 1:19 pm: I am going to repeat again for your benefit Tin [TinGull] 1:19 pm: THANKS raul [] 1:19 pm: Copy and paste [] 1:19 pm: I just sat down...just in time [] 1:20 pm: market way too choppy for mio [Trading Room]: guavaman has entered at 1:20 pm [guavaman] 1:20 pm: market way too choppy for me [guavaman] 1:21 pm: no follow thru [TinGull] 1:21 pm: scalpers paradise [] 1:21 pm: never mind.........go ahead and pull ER2 charts on 15 minutes (today) and locate the 9:30 AM candle......use candlesticks for a better view of the price....draw two horizontal lines at the high/low of that bar and write the price in a paper [] 1:22 pm: This is not the holy grail and please notice that there's always risk not only here but in everything that you do...there's always risk...ok? [] 1:22 pm: gotcha boss [] 1:22 pm: let me know when you're ready [TinGull] 1:22 pm: yup [] 1:22 pm: ready here [] 1:23 pm: ok....tel me what happened next???/at the next candle...... [TinGull] 1:23 pm: we were inside the 9:30 [] 1:23 pm: yes inside candle [] 1:24 pm: what happened to the market on the next candle [] 1:24 pm: ??? [TinGull] 1:24 pm: down [] 1:24 pm: breakdown [] 1:24 pm: exactly [] 1:25 pm: Im not done yet [] 1:25 pm: brokedown through the low [] 1:26 pm: lets go back to 11/07 2006 same candle [] 1:26 pm: we will deal with 11/08 later [TinGull] 1:27 pm: the 9:30 candle? [] 1:27 pm: okay [] 1:27 pm: test [] 1:27 pm: yes [TinGull] 1:27 pm: ok [] 1:28 pm: what happened? [] 1:28 pm: at the next candle? [] 1:28 pm: not an inside candle... [TinGull] 1:28 pm: once the next candle broke the top of that 930 candle, it soared [] 1:28 pm: next candle broke high of 9:30 [] 1:29 pm: exactly Tin [] 1:29 pm: exactly [TinGull] 1:29 pm: which did't happen on 11/8 [] 1:30 pm: let's go back to 11/06...I'll let you know in a bit Tin... [] 1:30 pm: okay [TinGull] 1:30 pm: alirght [] 1:31 pm: what do you see?? [TinGull] 1:31 pm: two candles, same size body, then thge trend is up [TinGull] 1:31 pm: fairly close size body [] 1:32 pm: next candle inside high/low [TinGull] 1:32 pm: or...kind of a bullish engulfing candle [] 1:32 pm: exactly [TinGull] 1:32 pm: on the 6th? [TinGull] 1:33 pm: exactly who? My 9:45 bar on the 6th has a wick that extends past the top of the 930 [] 1:33 pm: you're looking at the market form an floor eyes view [] 1:33 pm: exactly [] 1:33 pm: floor trader's eyes view I should say [TinGull] 1:33 pm: so, you're looking at the first 2 candles, and making a move on the 3rd? [Trading Room]: Bfbusa has entered at 1:34 pm [] 1:34 pm: ok does i makes sense to you?? [TinGull] 1:34 pm: yea, seems just like a pivot move off of low/hi of a bar [] 1:34 pm: starting to... [TinGull] 1:34 pm: right? [] 1:34 pm: I am looking ta the break of the last 15 min candle before the market opens [] 1:35 pm: yes exactly... [TinGull] 1:35 pm: break of the 9:15 bar> [] 1:36 pm: are we making sense here????I am not done yet [] 1:36 pm: yes [TinGull] 1:36 pm: yea....makes great sense [] 1:37 pm: ok sounds nice......floor trader are on the lookout to break this las bar/candle....always......they call it the"morning breeze" betas me...I don't know why but that's how the call it [] 1:38 pm: test [TinGull] 1:38 pm: and the "morning breeze" is the 9:15 bar? [TinGull] 1:38 pm: or the 9:30? [TinGull] 1:38 pm: I can see how it would work perfectly against the 9:15 [] 1:39 pm: ..we have to wait for 9:30 [] 1:39 pm: the last drop form overnigth [TinGull] 1:39 pm: plus...you made your steak money at the open today [] 1:39 pm: exactly....35 seconds trade [guavaman] 1:39 pm: like i said no follow thru today [TinGull] 1:39 pm: right, but you are watching the 9:15 bar close, and making a move off of that at 9:30 [TinGull] 1:39 pm: watch POC on YM right here [] 1:40 pm: ok here's the trick [TinGull] 1:40 pm: ok...so, I am correct in that you wait for the 9:15 to close, and then make a move in whichever direction it breaks, right? [] 1:41 pm: test [] 1:42 pm: you don't just put a trade rigth on...wait for the price to break and you must see speed....thats the so called "momentum"...if you're not watching how faste the market is wanting to break the price...then you could be caugth up in something like 11/08/2006........ [] 1:42 pm: this is a quick trade and you must be trigger ready [TinGull] 1:43 pm: excellent [] 1:43 pm: is not just the preice breaking the H/L is the speed......how hungry is the market for the breakout [] 1:44 pm: let's see 11/08 2006 [] 1:44 pm: okay [TinGull] 1:45 pm: alirght [] 1:47 pm: test [] 1:47 pm: I am sorry guys is not 11/08 I know there's a day in Oct that the market didin't break the overnigth on the next candle but the candle @9:50 I gues...I can't find it [TinGull] 1:47 pm: its all good. I'm sure it happens sometimes. [] 1:47 pm: well anyway....the key here is to wait for that preice to break and go for the killing........not time for thinking [TinGull] 1:48 pm: very interesting [TinGull] 1:48 pm: morning breeze [] 1:48 pm: practice that...for a while and let me know.....When I was a pit trader most of my trades were done before 10:00 AM [] 1:48 pm: there's no difference here [TinGull] 1:49 pm: except you get to grill out right after you make the trade [TinGull] 1:49 pm: and sip some vino [] 1:49 pm: LOL [] 1:49 pm: oh yea absolutely [TinGull] 1:49 pm: or did they do that on the floor? [TinGull] 1:49 pm: haha [] 1:49 pm: lol [TinGull] 1:50 pm: 15 points off the POC pivot on YM [] 1:50 pm: so could you give an example of what your thinking as each bar forms? using today [TinGull] 1:50 pm: YM has been wicked with pivots today [] 1:50 pm: ? [] 1:51 pm: so it's up to you guys...if you want to trade all your life tryng to fade the moves.......and suffer...be my guest....I assure you if you master this strategy........your perspective form trading will change [] 1:51 pm: forever [TinGull] 1:52 pm: Im game [TinGull] 1:52 pm: thanks for the tips, Raul [] 1:52 pm: Thank you feb! [] 1:52 pm: wow - more amazing stuff - thanksRAul [] 1:52 pm: thanks floortrader [] 1:52 pm: ty raul [TinGull] 1:52 pm: Raul, quick Q [TinGull] 1:52 pm: do you have a stop in place at all? [TinGull] 1:52 pm: say, on the YM, alot of times it dips way down and then pops up hard [] 1:52 pm: well....remember ..speed is the key...if you don't see enough juice better to wait for the next bar....aventually the price will be break [] 1:53 pm: eventually* [TinGull] 1:53 pm: or do you do this exclusively on ER2? [guavaman] 1:53 pm: [] 1:54 pm: well I should say that ER2 has the perfect moves for this...but all indices are heavely influenced byt the floor via cross trading [] 1:54 pm: I am typing too fast LOL [TinGull] 1:55 pm: yea, ER2 has the biggest bang for the buck anyhow [] 1:56 pm: well back test this strategy all you want...make sure you grab the concept...and no I don't use stop-loss whne I am trading like this [] 1:56 pm: test [TinGull] 1:57 pm: nice [] 1:57 pm: so what risk reward setup is typical with this setup feb? [] 1:57 pm: okay i just read above about stop loss [TinGull] 1:57 pm: 1:1000 [] 1:58 pm: lol [TinGull] 1:58 pm: [guavaman] 1:58 pm: 87 is one tough nut there [] 1:58 pm: if you dont use a stop there is no pre-defined risk (or pre-defined reward without a target, for that matter) [] 1:58 pm: I shoot for 1 point (ER) of course I am loaded...25 contracts but that's me [TinGull] 1:58 pm: you watching ES guava? [] 1:58 pm: how much is the ER [TinGull] 1:58 pm: 10 bucks a tick [TinGull] 1:58 pm: 100 bucks a point per contract [] 1:59 pm: 12.5 i thought [TinGull] 1:59 pm: ES is [] 1:59 pm: ahh [TinGull] 1:59 pm: yea, ER2 is the best for big money, but bucks like a bronco [TinGull] 1:59 pm: its real fast [TinGull] 2:00 pm: compared to YM which is really a smooth contract to trade for me [] 2:00 pm: maybe something for future then [] 2:00 pm: lol [] 2:00 pm: thats what I like ER2 but you can use any of them [] 2:00 pm: wow, thanks alot feb i'm going to practice and get it just right, This avoids that chop that i always get myself into [TinGull] 2:00 pm: very nice stuff [TinGull] 2:01 pm: Nasdaq just wants to hang on..... [TinGull] 2:01 pm: Thanks again Raul! [feb2865] 2:19 pm: ok...remember this sounds exciting but as everything in life it requires practice and persistance....If you stick around I won't let anybody quit LOL [TinGull] 2:19 pm: I only see up to where Raul said that at some point in october it went wrong, not the 8th [MrPaul] 2:20 pm: lol, I'll be around

Hey Torero, The Black Scholes model is used to figure out if your option is fairly priced. Say you have the strike you're looking at, the share price of the underlying, the time till expiry and the volatility of the option. Then, with the results, you can see if the option is overpriced, or fairly priced. It's very helpful, but I think a lof of softwares should have a "theoretical price" built in so you can see it without having to do the calculations yourself. So, yes, it's absolutely useful and essential to know if you're overpaying for an option. Now...if you're selling the option, which is what I usually do, then you want it to be overpriced. For what I trade, index options only. They're treated like commodities by the tax man, which gives me some nice tax benefits, plus I don't have to worry about huge fluctuations because of earnings or scandal. There are also volatility models that can help you figure out the probability percentage of an option expiring in the money or not. Those are somewhat useful, in that the market *usually* has a fairly normal pattern to things. October was a HUGE exception and I know a lot of options traders (myself included) who had their worst month ever selling options as we expected Oct to be a flat to down month, not the roaring month it was. So...probability analysis can work....most of the time.

Forming another P profile today. Adding to suspense.

Could be a fun ride for the bears....finally. Got some bear call spreads I sold back in september that expire next week. Gotta get a little selloff to make them come to life.

Just heard on Bloomberg if SP futures go below 1381 we're gonna see a selloff of "epic proportions". We're sitting at 1381.75 now....could be interesting. Things are selling off quite rapidly right now pre-market. Thoughts??

I've been trading options for a bit over a year now and have started day trading index futures just within the past month or so. Options were fun...but index futures are way more fun! (though, have been a bit hard on the pocketbook while I'm learning them....)

no problem at all

I do follow the TRIN, yes.

When the issue moves higher and the TICK values are progressively getting less and less, say over a time frame of an hour...at what point do you say, this markets seeming like it might really make a correction?

With the Nasdaq TICK, since I don't have access to a Russell tick... Yes, it seems to work great. Here's an example from Fridays session. Notice how we hit the S1 3 times, and we had higher lows on the TICK...

Ah. I see. Might as well be an exchange with all the issues that it holds.... Thanks for clearing that up for me!

How can the Russell tick be the same when the russell is not an exchange like the nyse and nasdaq?

When you say ER ticks, Im not sure I've got a grasp on what you're looking at. What symbol do you type in? And are you just looking at a bid/ask analysis of whats being traded? if so, then yes, I already use that. That's my main tool. As price diverges from the delta bars I use, then I watch for an entry. The Nasdaq ticks are just 'cause the russell is all small cap, which would correspond better to the nasdaq than nyse tick.

I would think so...I'm going to do some more studying with it during the days and see what happens. I'll be sure to post accordingly

I'm currently using the Nasdaq TICK to trade ER2...so far so good. I'll still be using it for the following week before I decide if it's too much for my system to handle. I've been using a fairly simple trading system and I find that when i add too much into it, I make bad trades or miss trades. I'll keep you posted though.

Which book was that?

Awesome. Thanks so much James!

Well...we never went anywhere today, let alone to the POC or VAL. There was no plays to be made today. This makes the VAH, POC and VAL very, very tight for tomorrow...explosion tomorrow? Maybe.... Still would love some thoughts on what to do when it's so far away from VAL or POC.