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TinGull
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Everything posted by TinGull
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Brown and notouch...let's keep the thread about the EC and how we can become profitable on it. notouch, EC is a futures contract on it's own, while it does have correlation to price swings that spot would have as well based on news details, am I right? If so, then let's keep the discussion on the immaculate way the EC respects pivots and how you can profit from that. It's really a technical traders dream!! So...brown, do you use pivots with your trading on the EC? And if so, how often are you noticing that it does in fact trade to the pip on the pivots? I know MrPaul has been noticing this and taking some sweet sweet trades. Love to hear the info.
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With the week as crazy as it was, then...would one think Monday would be a strange one too?
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I think it makes sense to me now. I was thinking pismo was saying that if you expect to win more points on winning trades than lose on losing trades, your win % would drop. It was just a little confusing for my tiny brain, but I'm all straight now. Thanks guys
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Hi pismo...I'd love to know more about why you think the win % would drop if you expect to win more from your winning trades than you expect to lose on the losing trades?
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Why is it important to look longer term for short term trades? Yesterday, we hit the value area high for the past month’s worth of trading : We had some serious issues getting through that point and then BAM, we went down for almost 12 points on the day. Today will be interesting as we’re only 6 points away from 780 which has been some serious support as well as the value area low, and then 10 points away from 775 which has been a support area for months now. Let’s look at what Market Profile is telling us, shall we? TPO count the day before yesterday had sellers in control by an OK margin, and today we had selling. Obviously sellers were in control of the day, and our TPO count today was 222/70 showing sellers in major control. the value area is WIDE for today. Regarding the "Value Area Rule" from Mind Over Markets, the wider the value area, the less chance price has to run right through it. The numbers are as follows: VAH = 793.8 POC = 787.2 VAL = 785.4. A value area this wide makes for some interesting possibilities. First, it’s very likely we’ll open inside of value. It’s also likely that the market will remain somewhat rangebound as we digest yesterdays losses. So…some plays I would look to make are as follows: I would look to be a seller at the top of value, and a possible buyer at the lows, all depending on how the rest of the market is acting. IF for some reason we sneak out of value to the downside, that is a big warning that we want to go lower back to 780 and possibly wanting to take out 775 in the near future. Very doubtful that’ll happen today, though, after such strong selling yesterday. I think one of the better plays will end up being a buyer at VAL or the POC if we open up above that. I think we’ll find the ER wanting to range while trending as it does. If we do find ourselves bouncing off of VAL, remember we’re tending to have 9-11 point ranges AND the ER is forming it’s high or low of the day about 68% of the time in the first 30 minutes of trading. If you buy the low hold on to it, cause it could be very profitable.
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Just to add ER2's stats for thus far in 2007... Hi/Lo in first 30 minutes: 68.7% Hi/Lo in first 60 minutes: 81.2% How you like them apples???
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hehe...yea, i gotta work on that My stupid monitor is so big that it looks teeny on it. The composite is of the last 31 days. Thanks T!
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Here is a volume profile with a monthly value area for the ER2 (eMini Russell 2000). Notice each wave of highs we are making them lower…Our next push could to the value area high for this past month. We finished up trade inside of a low volume area at 799 and at 802 is the VAH, as well as that trendline from the highs. We certainly will have a tough area to get through at that 800-805 area. Also, on our profile charts our TPO count was 182/133 favoring the sellers by a not huge margin, but not small. ER is currently trading near the value area high of 797.2. If we come back into value before the open (existing home sales data at 8:30) I would look at possible shorting opportunities on a retracement at VAH or the POC. 797 has been value area high on 1/17 and 1/12 as well. It’s a tough nut to crack. IF we remain above, look for a quick selloff to VAH and a possible long there. The ER moves very very fast. There’s no time to think about the trade, you just need to take it. With the 34ema sitting around 797.50, a selloff in the AM to VAH would be a perfect long opportunity and look for a couple points, up to around 802.
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Very good stuff! Welcome aboard, look forward to trading with you
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I thought it might be that insane!! hehe Awesome, Ant, you RAWK!!!!
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Antonio, Do you have any of this data for the ER2? from what I've watched lately, the high /low has been made very quickly in the day. Didn't know if it was easy to run the ER through that program of yours Thanks man! Chris
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Also, looking at this profile I didn't even SEE the potential for the bounce today: We had our low right at POC from yesterday (obvious) and also the high from 1/22, and VAH from 1/19. Very important support there.
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Thanks That daily chart was just me fudging around with Fib stuff. I think it's strange and love to see fun shapes! I dont use it by any means...I've got no idea how to trade with that stuff. As for the moving average...the 34ema is a good judge of value at the moment in the ER2. Works like a charm.
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Let's take a look at the ER and Market Profile. First of all, you can see that we've had some serious indecision longer term by the following profile: We're stuck in a range from 773 to 806. 780 is providing some serious support for the ER as it 805ish. The interesting thing about the ER in this sort of range longer term, is that it still trends like heck during the day. So, let's look at yesterday's and the day before yesterday's profiles: The day before yesterday we saw the TPO count at 119/221 favoring the buyers by a nice margin. Then...yesterday...we saw nice buying for almost the whole day. ER follows the TPO count pretty darn well, which is really nice. On 1/9/07 the TPO count was 197/253, and we went the entire range from 772-805 in 4 days. Then on 1/16 we had a TPO count of 284/35 HEAVILY favoring sellers, and we dropped to 780 over the next couple days. Where was the TPO count yesterday? 195/129 favoring sellers by a small margin. We had a value area placed above the previous days, showing us that we want to move up, and TPO counts favoring sellers by a little...some indecision intraday? Perhaps. Price as we sit now is right in the middle of value. We opened like this yesterday. The moves to look for are value area pivots. ER loves that stuff. Look for opportunities of a bounce off of 787.50 to the upside or a bounce off 793.10 to the downside. If we hit one of these, chances are pretty darn high that we'll go through the value area in the direction of that bounce. That could yield lots of points...5.60 to be exact. ER loves to make this move. Also...ER doesn't seem to discriminate which value pivot it chooses to use. Always keep the last 3-4 days of value in your mind, but primary importance on, of course, yesterdays value area. Highs and lows on the ER almost always occur on a value pivot be it yesterdays or be it 3 days prior. Just something to keep in mind. Also, we're averaging 11.5 point range for the 10day ATR. If you're able to see that we're bouncing from a value pivot, chances are very good for a very decent trade. How will I be approaching the day and a trade? Here it is: The ER is showing us some downside possibilities right now. We fell below the 34ema and failed to close above it on Friday, and fell back from it Monday, and rallied above it, but couldn't close above it yesterday. The 34ema is a good way to judge value of the Russell. Any close below 780 is a red flag for me. I will be looking at a bounce off of the VAH to bring us possibly lower. At that point, I'll follow the 34ema and when price starts to breach that back to the upside, I'd let go of the trade. I'm going to practice holding on to this bad boy. Vice versa for the upside if the market decides it wants to go that way. Enjoy!
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Welcome Don!
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And... Infinity is fast as all heck. Really intuitive to use. -
I'm sensing that too. Then the afternoon 50% fib retracement seems to offer a nice little snack
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Cool Soul, Thanks
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Cool stuff James. One question, why didn't you take the fib to the 635 area from the low to that swing high? Was it because it happened before the new high that you put your fibs to? Also, that 600 level...spent a lot of time there yesterday: Should be interesting.
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Once again Walter, thanks! Cool that you're name begins with a "W" eh? Just thought of that....hehe As for the delta, since it's just showing the net difference between the bid and the ask contracts going into the market, it's pretty easy to grasp whats happening. As we head into a critical area (be it the 34ema, a market profile level or whatever) the contracts going in the movement of price start decreasing. If price is heading up, the net buying contracts starts going down. This is just signaling that the bulls lack confidence into that move and you can exploit that. Happy trading
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http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-trading/170-glossary-trading-pit-terms.html that link which was posted in the first post is dead for me too. The second link works fine that you just posted. Thanks James!
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Thanks Sys...for the style that I trade the markets were crap. The YM was extremely rangebound and very limited in it's range. For scalp type trades and the ER...I agree whole heartedly. The market was great this week for that. There were just a lot of fakeouts on the YM this past week. I'm totally all set now, though...got refreshed this weekend and am ready to rock!
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Welcome aboard
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The thing I look for is a divergence in the delta of the bid/ask going into the 34ema, especially at or very close to Market Profile levels. It also can give you a good exit point on a scalp. ER seems to love MP levels too. The first pic is a real quicky on what to do without too much MP levels to play off of. You can see rejection inside of value from Friday as we exit value area and bounce back up to the 34ema with a huge divergence. (dont mind the s3 level...my charts daily pivots were messed up friday). As we get the confluence of the 34ema, val, and weekly S1 AND divergence...sweet. Good trade placement would've been right under the 34 as we came back down, just to make sure we were headin' in that direction. A few bars later we get another entry if you missed the first one. Good for a 1-2 point scalp, and then another divergence/34ema entry good for another 1-2 point scalp. The second pic is of a great trade of the ER being accepted inside of value. There's 2 opportunities to get into this trade at VAL. Both show divergences on the delta graph meaning selling is decreasing as price still wants to move lower. Coming into value area low with divergence AND a market profile level is sweet. As you can see...good for 3 points bottom to top. At around 13:56 you had another entry exactly the same play from VAL to the daily pivot. While one might be tempted to flip the trade there from a triple top...I'm not that brazen. I want to wait for the next 34ema/MP move. at 14:57 price starts showing us acceptance out of value. We blast back up to VAL with a divergence AND the 34ema....sweetness again. From there we ride down to the weekly pivot. A little over 3 points top to bottom. So...this day showed us 9 points using Market Profile and the 34ema. The red trendline is a 5ema. I use it to see how choppy things might be. When it hangs around the 34 for too long, I dont want to take trades until we see some movement away from the 34 and back to it. Just to play it safe.
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Welcome Sniper! (love the name btw) Look forward to talking about ER war stories and victory stories! hehe